MVP Rankings 1.0

Post #201 » by **semi-sentient** » Wed Dec 2, 2009 4:41 pm

Wile E. Coyote wrote:I think LA is going to win at least five more games than Cleveland this year, so LeBron's going to have to have some monster stats to get on top of Kobe. I'm guessing Kobe's going to average around 27/5/5 this year on 48%/34%/86% shooting.

If both teams stay on pace, they will end up with the following records:

Lakers: 65-17 (35-6 home, 30-11 road)

Cavs: 58-24 (31-10 home, 27-14 road)

YLSKillaCam · Post #202 » by **YLSKillaCam** » Wed Dec 2, 2009 5:03 pm

semi-sentient wrote:
Wile E. Coyote wrote:I think LA is going to win at least five more games than Cleveland this year, so LeBron's going to have to have some monster stats to get on top of Kobe. I'm guessing Kobe's going to average around 27/5/5 this year on 48%/34%/86% shooting.

If both teams stay on pace, they will end up with the following records:

Lakers: 65-17 (35-6 home, 30-11 road)

Cavs: 58-24 (31-10 home, 27-14 road)

This is probably an accurate statement give or take a couple games. I think the Cavs will end up with between 55-58 wins. Lakers between 64-67.

The regression is what hurts Lebron because as good as he is playing, there is no reason why his team shouldn't win 62-66 games.

Cavs fans will retort that there was no reason that last year's team should've won 66 games. That might be true, but that's why he was awarded MVP. It is hard to justify giving a guy back to back MVPs when the team is actually worse from a season ago with upgraded or the same personel.

I think that's what's killing Lebron right now.

CzBoobie · Post #203 » by **CzBoobie** » Wed Dec 2, 2009 5:23 pm

semi-sentient wrote:
Wile E. Coyote wrote:I think LA is going to win at least five more games than Cleveland this year, so LeBron's going to have to have some monster stats to get on top of Kobe. I'm guessing Kobe's going to average around 27/5/5 this year on 48%/34%/86% shooting.

If both teams stay on pace, they will end up with the following records:

Lakers: 65-17 (35-6 home, 30-11 road)

Cavs: 58-24 (31-10 home, 27-14 road)

One problem though...the Lakers are on pace to play 63 home games (52-11 home).

tracey_nice · Post #204 » by **tracey_nice** » Wed Dec 2, 2009 5:37 pm

CzBron wrote:
semi-sentient wrote:
Wile E. Coyote wrote:I think LA is going to win at least five more games than Cleveland this year, so LeBron's going to have to have some monster stats to get on top of Kobe. I'm guessing Kobe's going to average around 27/5/5 this year on 48%/34%/86% shooting.

If both teams stay on pace, they will end up with the following records:

Lakers: 65-17 (35-6 home, 30-11 road)

Cavs: 58-24 (31-10 home, 27-14 road)

One problem though...the Lakers are on pace to play 63 home games (52-11 home).

Lol, but you cant see the lakers winning 65 games?

CzBoobie · Post #205 » by **CzBoobie** » Wed Dec 2, 2009 5:41 pm

I can...I can also see them winning only 60. I can see the Cavs winning 55-65 games, too.

Post #206 » by **semi-sentient** » Wed Dec 2, 2009 5:49 pm

CzBron wrote:
semi-sentient wrote:
Wile E. Coyote wrote:I think LA is going to win at least five more games than Cleveland this year, so LeBron's going to have to have some monster stats to get on top of Kobe. I'm guessing Kobe's going to average around 27/5/5 this year on 48%/34%/86% shooting.

If both teams stay on pace, they will end up with the following records:

Lakers: 65-17 (35-6 home, 30-11 road)

Cavs: 58-24 (31-10 home, 27-14 road)

One problem though...the Lakers are on pace to play 63 home games (52-11 home).

?

The win totals I posted are projections based on their current home/road win percentages. For example, the Lakers have only played 4 road games and have won 75% of them, so if they continue on that pace then they will end up 30-11 (or 31-10, who knows).

Dat Pass · Post #207 » by **Dat Pass** » Wed Dec 2, 2009 5:55 pm

CzBron wrote:
semi-sentient wrote:
Wile E. Coyote wrote:I think LA is going to win at least five more games than Cleveland this year, so LeBron's going to have to have some monster stats to get on top of Kobe. I'm guessing Kobe's going to average around 27/5/5 this year on 48%/34%/86% shooting.

If both teams stay on pace, they will end up with the following records:

Lakers: 65-17 (35-6 home, 30-11 road)

Cavs: 58-24 (31-10 home, 27-14 road)

One problem though...the Lakers are on pace to play 63 home games (52-11 home).

Have you factored in that Gasol missed the first 11 games of the season? You havent have you? The Lakers have been a much, much better team since Gasol rejoined. I have a really hard time seeing the Lakers win less than 65 games.

CzBoobie · Post #208 » by **CzBoobie** » Wed Dec 2, 2009 6:02 pm

semi-sentient wrote:
?

The win totals I posted are projections based on their current home/road win percentages. For example, the Lakers have only played 4 road games and have won 75% of them, so if they continue on that pace then they will end up 30-11 (or 31-10, who knows).

Yeah, I didn't look at it properly, my bad...still, 4 away games are too small sample to make record predictions from it I think.

But anyway, obviously the record will be the biggest factor in who wins the MVP. If the Lakers have by far the best record in the NBA, LeBron has no chance. If the Lakers don't have the best record or at least are around 65 wins again and the Cavs can win 60+, it still can be interesting.

Post #209 » by **semi-sentient** » Wed Dec 2, 2009 6:11 pm

Ball Boy wrote:Have you factored in that Gasol missed the first 11 games of the season? You havent have you? The Lakers have been a much, much better team since Gasol rejoined. I have a really hard time seeing the Lakers win less than 65 games.

A healthy Lakers team would win 65 games, but they are never healthy for a full season. Heck we're not even a quarter through with this current season and already Gasol has missed 11 games, Bynum 2, and Walton 8 (I know, I know) and counting. Ron Artest hasn't played more than 70 games since the 03-04 season and eventually he'll be riding pine for a few weeks, which is when Walton's absence might look more significant than it really is.

tracey_nice · Post #210 » by **tracey_nice** » Wed Dec 2, 2009 6:11 pm

You would have to assume there record is going to be better than the extrapolation on their current record this season since Gasol has been injured.

Post #211 » by **semi-sentient** » Wed Dec 2, 2009 6:21 pm

CzBron wrote:Yeah, I didn't look at it properly, my bad...still, 4 away games are too small sample to make record predictions from it I think.

But anyway, obviously the record will be the biggest factor in who wins the MVP. If the Lakers have by far the best record in the NBA, LeBron has no chance. If the Lakers don't have the best record or at least are around 65 wins again and the Cavs can win 60+, it still can be interesting.

LeBron will have a chance as long as the Cavs have a top 5 record. Outside of his obvious importance to the team, his numbers are too good to use the typical "top player on a top 3 team" criteria.

When Nash won it in 05-06, the Suns had the 3rd best record in the WC and 4th best record in the league.

Benedict_Boozer · Post #212 » by **Benedict_Boozer** » Wed Dec 2, 2009 6:38 pm

semi-sentient wrote:
If both teams stay on pace, they will end up with the following records:

Lakers: 65-17 (35-6 home, 30-11 road)

Cavs: 58-24 (31-10 home, 27-14 road)

If that happens, I think Kobe wins MVP regardless of the difference in their individual numbers. Though alot will depend on momentum at the end of the year and the head-to-head match-ups between Kobe & LBJ, people have short memories and those kind of games/late year performance will stand out.

That would be an interesting scenario.

CzBoobie · Post #213 » by **CzBoobie** » Wed Dec 2, 2009 7:19 pm

semi-sentient wrote:LeBron will have a chance as long as the Cavs have a top 5 record. Outside of his obvious importance to the team, his numbers are too good to use the typical "top player on a top 3 team" criteria.

When Nash won it in 05-06, the Suns had the 3rd best record in the WC and 4th best record in the league.

Nash was without Amare though...that changed everything.

JimMurray · Post #214 » by **JimMurray** » Wed Dec 2, 2009 8:54 pm

CzBron wrote:
One problem though...the Lakers are on pace to play 63 home games (52-11 home).

Actually if you go by the schedule, they are on pace to play only 41 home games.

JimMurray · Post #215 » by **JimMurray** » Wed Dec 2, 2009 8:56 pm

tracey_nice wrote:You would have to assume there record is going to be better than the extrapolation on their current record this season since Gasol has been injured.

You love that word...."extrapolation".

tracey_nice · Post #216 » by **tracey_nice** » Wed Dec 2, 2009 9:37 pm

it rolls of your tongue

CzBoobie · Post #217 » by **CzBoobie** » Wed Dec 2, 2009 9:50 pm

JimMurray wrote:
CzBron wrote:
One problem though...the Lakers are on pace to play 63 home games (52-11 home).

Actually if you go by the schedule, they are on pace to play only 41 home games.

link?

dznutzz · Post #218 » by **dznutzz** » Thu Dec 3, 2009 3:41 pm

the lakers played a lot of home games early kuz of scheduling with events at the staples center

anyway, the lakers technically play 43 home games....

Wile E. Coyote · Post #219 » by **Wile E. Coyote** » Thu Dec 3, 2009 7:22 pm

Steve Nash will quickly be out of the running after losing to a few more "elite" teams.

YLSKillaCam · Post #220 » by **YLSKillaCam** » Thu Dec 3, 2009 10:02 pm

Despite the home games, arguments are being made that the lakers have a tougher schedule so far than Cavs.

"...The Lakers have started this season with a pretty tough schedule, in terms of opponent quality. Of teams with 5 losses or less, only the Hawks have a tougher Strengh of Schedule than L.A"

http://lakersblog.latimes.com/lakersblo ... agree.html

Hollinger agrees: http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings