MVP Discussion [19/20] [part I] - voting reopened

[JN61]

I'd definitely question a metric that had Giannis (and Harden) at the absolute bottom of the MVP threshold last season and only has Giannis a tiny bit above an average MVP season so far this season.

His metric doesn't adjust for lineups, hence why it's results are so wonky.

Here's what metrics that do adjust for lineups(and unlike scrab's STAT have been tested on their ability to predict wins) say:

PIPM:
Giannis +9
Harden +7
Luka +6.7

Backpicks BPM(skewed towards offense since it relies more on box based data):
Giannis +8.6
Harden +8

ESPN RPM(hasn't been around enough for serious testing):
Giannis +8
Harden +6.6

There's quite literally nothing that says harden is mvp but scrab's data which
A. doesn't adjust for lineups making it a team stat(like record)
B. Hasn't been tested and hence we have zero clue how accurate it is.

But don't let that stop scrab from telling everyone how biased we are.

You're responding to rankings that are five days old.
My current rankings have Antetokounmpo in 1st at 14.0 and Harden in 2nd at 12.9.
Also, I noticed how you used nothing but per-minute stats when one guy has played 21% more minutes even though his team has played one game fewer. Nothing biased about that.

Merry Christmas!

In this timespan rockets have played extremely well and Harden being as dominant as ever, yet his numbers barely move and Giannis' explodes? While he is playing very sub bar numbers for him due to minutes played. You sure you don't make it all as you go?

[scrabbarista]

His metric doesn't adjust for lineups, hence why it's results are so wonky.

Here's what metrics that do adjust for lineups(and unlike scrab's STAT have been tested on their ability to predict wins) say:

PIPM:
Giannis +9
Harden +7
Luka +6.7

Backpicks BPM(skewed towards offense since it relies more on box based data):
Giannis +8.6
Harden +8

ESPN RPM(hasn't been around enough for serious testing):
Giannis +8
Harden +6.6

There's quite literally nothing that says harden is mvp but scrab's data which
A. doesn't adjust for lineups making it a team stat(like record)
B. Hasn't been tested and hence we have zero clue how accurate it is.

But don't let that stop scrab from telling everyone how biased we are.

You're responding to rankings that are five days old.
My current rankings have Antetokounmpo in 1st at 14.0 and Harden in 2nd at 12.9.
Also, I noticed how you used nothing but per-minute stats when one guy has played 21% more minutes even though his team has played one game fewer. Nothing biased about that.

Merry Christmas!

In this timespan rockets have played extremely well and Harden being as dominant as ever, yet his numbers barely move and Giannis' explodes? While he is playing very sub bar numbers for him due to minutes played. You sure you don't make it all as you go?

Ha, yeah, I'm sure. The Rockets have been playing better (than they had been) without Harden on the court - and worse than they had been with him on the court. And the Bucks have been playing worse (than they had been) without Antetokounmpo on the court. This trend has been going on for a week or two. This has affected both players' +/- numbers. My formula is such that +/- has an inordinate value earlier in the season, because it's the only of the four inputs that isn't cumulative. I think there's been a bit of normalizing over the last week as Russ, in particular, has started to play better. Harden's On-Off was over 18.0 for most of the season and has come down to 13.2 at the moment. It's still shaping up to be a good race, though - at least for now.

[dygaction]

His metric doesn't adjust for lineups, hence why it's results are so wonky.

Here's what metrics that do adjust for lineups(and unlike scrab's STAT have been tested on their ability to predict wins) say:

PIPM:
Giannis +9
Harden +7
Luka +6.7

Backpicks BPM(skewed towards offense since it relies more on box based data):
Giannis +8.6
Harden +8

ESPN RPM(hasn't been around enough for serious testing):
Giannis +8
Harden +6.6

There's quite literally nothing that says harden is mvp but scrab's data which
A. doesn't adjust for lineups making it a team stat(like record)
B. Hasn't been tested and hence we have zero clue how accurate it is.

But don't let that stop scrab from telling everyone how biased we are.

You're responding to rankings that are five days old.
My current rankings have Antetokounmpo in 1st at 14.0 and Harden in 2nd at 12.9.
Also, I noticed how you used nothing but per-minute stats when one guy has played 21% more minutes even though his team has played one game fewer. Nothing biased about that.

Merry Christmas!

In this timespan rockets have played extremely well and Harden being as dominant as ever, yet his numbers barely move and Giannis' explodes? While he is playing very sub bar numbers for him due to minutes played. You sure you don't make it all as you go?

In the past 10 games, Russel Westbrook has been playing super high level basketball. RW is averaging 27.1p, 8.5r, and 7.2a. Nobody else in the Bucks is even close. Harden is 36.9p, 5.1r, and 6.8a. It is great seeing they can play together. While you think Rockets were playing extremely well, they are 8-2. The Bucks put a 9-1 in the same period.

[90sAllDecade]

I like Giannis and he's a hell of a player, but he got dominated this game.

Hopefully they can avoid Philly in the playoffs, because if the 76ers play to thier potential I think they are a bad matchup for the Bucks.

[Magic Giannison]

I like Giannis and he's a hell of a player, but he got dominated this game.

Hopefully they can avoid Philly in the playoffs, because if the 76ers play to thier potential I think they are a bad matchup for the Bucks.

I like Harden and he's a hell of a player, but he got dominated this game.

Hopefully they can avoid Warriors in the playoffs, because if the Warriors play to their potential I think they are a bad matchup for the Rockets.

[Colbinii]

I like Giannis and he's a hell of a player, but he got dominated this game.

Hopefully they can avoid Philly in the playoffs, because if the 76ers play to thier potential I think they are a bad matchup for the Bucks.

As we also saw today, the Rockets are avoiding the #1 seed so they avoid the Warriors in round 1.

[oldschooled]

Put some respect on Embiid's name and at least put him in the poll. Guy has been playing b2b's now and have been playing at an MVP level since that Raptors game.

[dygaction]

I like Giannis and he's a hell of a player, but he got dominated this game.

Hopefully they can avoid Philly in the playoffs, because if the 76ers play to thier potential I think they are a bad matchup for the Bucks.

As we also saw today, the Rockets are avoiding the #1 seed so they avoid the Warriors in round 1.

Current top 4 by this thread poll and NBA.com are Giannis, Luka, LeBron, and Harden. Luka is still DNP but the other three all lost.

[scrabbarista]

I like Giannis and he's a hell of a player, but he got dominated this game.

Hopefully they can avoid Philly in the playoffs, because if the 76ers play to thier potential I think they are a bad matchup for the Bucks.

As we also saw today, the Rockets are avoiding the #1 seed so they avoid the Warriors in round 1.

Current top 4 by this thread poll and NBA.com are Giannis, Luka, LeBron, and Harden. Luka is still DNP but the other three all lost.

The hate-free, narrative-free, spin-free, bias-free, reality-based basketball-reference.com has:

41.4% Antetokounmpo
30.4% Harden
10.3% Doncic
7.3% James
(Leonard at 0.8%)

My hate-free, narrative-free, spin-free, bias-free, reality-based formula has:

13.2 Antetokounmpo
12.5 Harden
10.9 James
10.0 Leonard
(Doncic is at 8.9)

The not-those-things realgm poll has:

51% Antetokounmpo
25% Doncic
11% James
5% Harden
(Leonard is at 0%)

My formula actually gave Harden an opportunity to move back in front on Christmas after Antetokounmpo played poorly in a loss, but after Antetokounmpo dropped from 14.0 to 13.2, Harden dropped from 12.9 to 12.5. The big jump, of course, was made by Leonard into 4th.

PS I didn't include nba.com's rankings because Who Cares, Not Me.

[Colbinii]

I like Giannis and he's a hell of a player, but he got dominated this game.

Hopefully they can avoid Philly in the playoffs, because if the 76ers play to thier potential I think they are a bad matchup for the Bucks.

As we also saw today, the Rockets are avoiding the #1 seed so they avoid the Warriors in round 1.

Current top 4 by this thread poll and NBA.com are Giannis, Luka, LeBron, and Harden. Luka is still DNP but the other three all lost.

Okay?

And If I want to say Climate Change isn't real I can site Fox News.

[Ron Swanson]

Giannis with by far his worst game of the season. Thought he forced stuff way too much and obviously just missed some wide open shots, both from 3 and at the rim, that he's been making routinely as of late. Had 7 assists but probably should have had 12-15 had he deferred more like he should have. I'm sure people will start to trumpet the usual "this is the blueprint to beat him" but he's traditionally dominated the Sixers defense since Budenholzer took over (43/15/7 on 68% TS).

[whatever_]

aren't you guys making too much use of advanced stats?

Seriously, you look like the media cherrypicking stats to come up with headlines

[dygaction]

As we also saw today, the Rockets are avoiding the #1 seed so they avoid the Warriors in round 1.

Current top 4 by this thread poll and NBA.com are Giannis, Luka, LeBron, and Harden. Luka is still DNP but the other three all lost.

The hate-free, narrative-free, spin-free, bias-free, reality-based basketball-reference.com has:

41.4% Antetokounmpo
30.4% Harden
10.3% Doncic
7.3% James
(Leonard at 0.8%)

My hate-free, narrative-free, spin-free, bias-free, reality-based formula has:

13.2 Antetokounmpo
12.5 Harden
10.9 James
10.0 Leonard
(Doncic is at 8.9)

The not-those-things realgm poll has:

51% Antetokounmpo
25% Doncic
11% James
5% Harden
(Leonard is at 0%)

My formula actually gave Harden an opportunity to move back in front on Christmas after Antetokounmpo played poorly in a loss, but after Antetokounmpo dropped from 14.0 to 13.2, Harden dropped from 12.9 to 12.5. The big jump, of course, was made by Leonard into 4th.

PS I didn't include nba.com's rankings because Who Cares, Not Me.

But the MVP voting is never narrative-free. Luka will always get some votes for leading a losing Mavs team to competitive with historic offensive performance. Harden will lose some votes for years of playoff disappointment. LeBron's case is weakened because of AD's performance and head to head losses to KL and Giannis. Leonard has nothing to do with regular season MVP, as the Clippers were a good team last season, and they added both KL and PG. His contribution to the team is not the MOST valuable compared to others.

[dygaction]

As we also saw today, the Rockets are avoiding the #1 seed so they avoid the Warriors in round 1.

Current top 4 by this thread poll and NBA.com are Giannis, Luka, LeBron, and Harden. Luka is still DNP but the other three all lost.

Okay?

And If I want to say Climate Change isn't real I can site Fox News.

Nah, you better cite how you feel.

[Colbinii]

Current top 4 by this thread poll and NBA.com are Giannis, Luka, LeBron, and Harden. Luka is still DNP but the other three all lost.

Okay?

And If I want to say Climate Change isn't real I can site Fox News.

Nah, you better cite how you feel.

But you didn't cite how you feel, you used this forum and nba.com.

[dygaction]

As we also saw today, the Rockets are avoiding the #1 seed so they avoid the Warriors in round 1.

Current top 4 by this thread poll and NBA.com are Giannis, Luka, LeBron, and Harden. Luka is still DNP but the other three all lost.

The hate-free, narrative-free, spin-free, bias-free, reality-based basketball-reference.com has:

41.4% Antetokounmpo
30.4% Harden
10.3% Doncic
7.3% James
(Leonard at 0.8%)

My hate-free, narrative-free, spin-free, bias-free, reality-based formula has:

13.2 Antetokounmpo
12.5 Harden
10.9 James
10.0 Leonard
(Doncic is at 8.9)

The not-those-things realgm poll has:

51% Antetokounmpo
25% Doncic
11% James
5% Harden
(Leonard is at 0%)

My formula actually gave Harden an opportunity to move back in front on Christmas after Antetokounmpo played poorly in a loss, but after Antetokounmpo dropped from 14.0 to 13.2, Harden dropped from 12.9 to 12.5. The big jump, of course, was made by Leonard into 4th.

PS I didn't include nba.com's rankings because Who Cares, Not Me.

Curios how your bias-free formula can put Leonard ahead of Luka. Luka missed less games, has better stats across the board, and his team has over achieved. Can you imagine switching them what record the Clippers would have by now?

[scrabbarista]

Curios how your bias-free formula can put Leonard ahead of Luka. Luka missed less games, has better stats across the board, and his team has over achieved. Can you imagine switching them what record the Clippers would have by now?

My formula doesn't include last night's games.

When it was posted, Doncic had played less than 48 minutes more than Leonard.

The Clips have been basically +14 per100 with Leonard on the floor and 0 with him off.
The Mavs have been about +9 with Doncic and +7 with him off - in spite of playing their most difficult stretch of games without him. That +7 without Doncic might account (statistically) for the overachieving you mentioned. It certainly wouldn't be anything new for an undermanned Carlisle team to overachieve.
To reiterate: Leonard is +14 in On-Off, and Doncic is +2. This has to be considered meaningful over a stretch of more than twenty games.

I feel fairly sure Doncic will be in the top five (of my formula) by the end of the season. He's too consistent not to expect that. But, even this late into the season, many players are still close enough that they can move "a lot" in just a single game if they play badly and another player near them on the list plays very well.

[Jamaaliver]

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

[NY 567]

I don't think much has changed, Giannis is still clearly in the lead by quite a margin with LeBron/Luka/Harden all in basically a 3 way tie for 2nd place followed by Butler, Jokic, Kemba, AD

[dygaction]

I don't think much has changed, Giannis is still clearly in the lead by quite a margin with LeBron/Luka/Harden all in basically a 3 way tie for 2nd place followed by Butler, Jokic, Kemba, AD

I agree with you but do not understand why suddenly all media is changing the tones on Luka giving all credites to coach, KP, and good role players. Richard Jefferson just called Luka a top 10 or top 12 player He should list the other 11

Watch on YouTube