MVP Discussion [19/20] [part I] - voting reopened

[Archx]

Doncic had better game today than all other candidates.
One step closer to MVP.

I'm not yet sold on Doncic. His stats are always impressive and his team is winning. He plays with the flash of a guy whose been around professional players since a teen. All things working in his favor. Still, what's to say its anything more than a game of light and shadow? Many are quick to anoint him, but I'm reserving judgment until he makes a serious playoff run.

Since when has MVP become a playoff award? Giannis won last season but failed in playoffs. Would you say the same about him?

There is a lot of talk about role players. I would say HOU and Harden does the worst job by involving them and putting them in a situation where they can succeed. Luka, Giannis, LBJ are doing far better job getting most out of their players.

Also, keep in mind that Doncic's stats would be even more crazier if he didn't play only 2 mins when he got injured. His stats dipped by 1 whole point. He would average close to 30.5/10/9.5 right now and his team is ahead of Hardens.
Luka did a fantastic job against GSW even though he was being double teamed before he even crossed the half court, if Harden is so much more proven why did he fail?

Don't get me wrong, i am not saying that Luka is 100% better player than Harden but saying that Doncic does not deserve it because he hasn't done anything in playoffs is in my opinion wrong. There is a reason why they have finals MVP award as well. Harden has zero of those for example.

[ken6199]

Harden didn't fail.

Rockets lost to the Warriors not because Harden got shut down. What Warriors did has been tried by many other teams, and a handful of them backfired badly. He is 24/6/11 on 50% shooting, 60% from 3, (the rest of the team shot 25%). He passed out of the double teams pretty well that night only to see Westbrook run into 3 defenders to draw a charge with McLemore and Tucker standing wide open in the corners. Toronto doubled him like hell, because we won in Toronto everyone was saying Harden had an excellent game by facilitating. Now we lost in Golden State, because Harden laid an egg?

Nets didn't double last night at first. Atkinson, a great coach, who decided not to do that. He knew doubling Harden is not the golden key to winning. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. Harden scored 23 points in the 1st quarter and he forced the Nets to switch to box-and-one with an extra defender the rest of the game, which Atkinson admitted he wasn't willing to do in the first place. Result? Harden still had 44/10/6, 63% FG, 6/10 from 3, (rest of the team: 7/32 that's 22%). He had game high +16, and we won by 10. Westbrook took more shots than Harden last night on 39% FG, Westbrook took more shots than Harden in Golden State. Sometimes your teammates just don't make shots and there is nothing you can do but that doesn't mean you fail. The guy is shooting 37.8% from 3 this season, more than 1% higher than his career average, and he is shooting at that rate mostly on contested shots while being defended like nobody else.

Listen, I am not getting into this Luka vs Harden debate here that's not the point of my post. If you think Luka at this point of his career is already a better player than Harden, fair enough and I am willing to entertain that idea. I am saying people are too quick getting to their conclusion of "xxx failed" without context, and certainly there is no reason to label another guy "failure" to hype up your guy. Luka vs Harden is obviously a very interesting topic because there are lot of similarities to their games but this discussion need to be first based on acknowledging both are having fantastic seasons.

[90sAllDecade]

The Rockets have the lowest scoring bench in the league at 30th and the Bucks are ranked 7th right now:
https://stats.nba.com/teams/traditional/?StarterBench=Bench&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=PTS&dir=-1

If you want to check Net rating for bench, the Bucks are third in the league, with Dallas, Clippers and Lakers all top 1-4 with Houston eighth:
https://stats.nba.com/teams/advanced/?StarterBench=Bench&sort=NET_RATING&dir=-1&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

If you value PIE or Player Impact Estimate as a stat, the Bucks are second in the league with Houston 14th:
https://stats.nba.com/teams/advanced/?StarterBench=Bench&sort=PIE&dir=-1&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

I would say yes, Milwakee and Giannis' supporting cast is arguably much better if you consider bench as well right now.

Bench net rating is a useless stat. Half of those stats are garbage time stats vs other teams 3rd stringers. The teams who's overall team (including starters) are good at blowing other teams out end up skewed because their bench players will be playing a sizable chunk of garbage time.

no way can a a team of Kuzma-Dwight-Rondo-KCP beat the Raptors bench. I can assure you we are only rated above them due to garbage time.

Take what stats you value, but I wouldn't assume many teams don't use thier bench with consistency, not just garbage time. Milwakee had a strong bench last year as well.

How one team utilizes thier bench doesn't speak for all, and some are more talented and deeper than others.

If you look at the big picture, across multiple stats, some teams benches are consistently higher based on impact, points or whatever stat you value.

We've had injuries to key players, Gordon, Westbrook with knee recovery and Capela with heel recovery. Those reserves played significant minutes during that span as well as regulars in the rotation when the starters rest.

I think more info helps paint a full picture of team success, especially when comparing supporting casts, but we can agree to disagree. Everyone has a right to thier own opinon.

[dygaction]

Harden didn't fail.

Rockets lost to the Warriors not because Harden got shut down. What Warriors did has been tried by many other teams, and a handful of them backfired badly. He is 24/6/11 on 50% shooting, 60% from 3, (the rest of the team shot 25%). He passed out of the double teams pretty well that night only to see Westbrook run into 3 defenders to draw a charge with McLemore and Tucker standing wide open in the corners. Toronto doubled him like hell, because we won in Toronto everyone was saying Harden had an excellent game by facilitating. Now we lost in Golden State, because Harden laid an egg?

Nets didn't double last night at first. Atkinson, a great coach, who decided not to do that. He knew doubling Harden is not the golden key to winning. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. Harden scored 23 points in the 1st quarter and he forced the Nets to switch to box-and-one with an extra defender the rest of the game, which Atkinson admitted he wasn't willing to do in the first place. Result? Harden still had 44/10/6, 63% FG, 6/10 from 3, (rest of the team: 7/32 that's 22%). He had game high +16, and we won by 10. Westbrook took more shots than Harden last night on 39% FG, Westbrook took more shots than Harden in Golden State. Sometimes your teammates just don't make shots and there is nothing you can do but that doesn't mean you fail. The guy is shooting 37.8% from 3 this season, more than 1% higher than his career average, and he is shooting at that rate mostly on contested shots while being defended like nobody else.

Listen, I am not getting into this Luka vs Harden debate here that's not the point of my post. If you think Luka at this point of his career is already a better player than Harden, fair enough and I am willing to entertain that idea. I am saying people are too quick getting to their conclusion of "xxx failed" without context, and certainly there is no reason to label another guy "failure" to hype up your guy. Luka vs Harden is obviously a very interesting topic because there are lot of similarities to their games but this discussion need to be first based on acknowledging both are having fantastic seasons.

Harden did his part but could have been better against GS. If you go back and watch the video, you can tell that Harden did not do anything after he passed the ball from double team. He did not run without the ball, set screen for others, or even seem to be interested in get the ball back. Luka yesterday fought really hard to get the ball back and keep the defenders honest.

[scrabbarista]

If Harden pulls away from the pack (unlikely, but possible), this thread will become a ghost town.

[dygaction]

The Rockets have the lowest scoring bench in the league at 30th and the Bucks are ranked 7th right now:
https://stats.nba.com/teams/traditional/?StarterBench=Bench&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=PTS&dir=-1

If you want to check Net rating for bench, the Bucks are third in the league, with Dallas, Clippers and Lakers all top 1-4 with Houston eighth:
https://stats.nba.com/teams/advanced/?StarterBench=Bench&sort=NET_RATING&dir=-1&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

If you value PIE or Player Impact Estimate as a stat, the Bucks are second in the league with Houston 14th:
https://stats.nba.com/teams/advanced/?StarterBench=Bench&sort=PIE&dir=-1&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

I would say yes, Milwakee and Giannis' supporting cast is arguably much better if you consider bench as well right now.

Many teams have 10 player rotation in the regular season, like Bucks, Mavs, Clippers, and previous GS. Some coach, like Mike D'Antoni just would like to use the starters. That's why Rockets bench looks bad, and of course, the injuries do not help.

[Styrian]

So it appears this year's MVP discussion is pretty much a competition on who has the worst supporting cast? Is that really what is happening now?

MJ won 5 MVPs, 2 of those were playing alongside 2 HOFers.
Bird won 3 MVPs playing alongside multiple HOFers.
LeBron won 2 MVPs playing alongside Wade and Bosh
KD won his playing alongside Westbrook

When did winning the MVP become a competition of guys who had the worst supporting cast? There are no super teams this year, no one is playing with a super loaded deck. So why has this become such a huge talking point in this discussion? Just seems so weird reading this and practically seeing arguments like, "Uh oh not good for Giannis MVP chances, his team just won without him." or "Harden should have the edge because his teammates are horrible!"

We're going to get to a point where players will have to make the decision what will be more important MVPs or Championships because god forbid a player be on a good team that has a chance to win a championship, if that happens he wont even be considered for MVP.

This trend really started in the last decade. In 1971-72 Kareem averaged 35/17/5, led Bucks to 63 wins and he got less first place votes than Jerry West and Wilt Chamberlain combined mainly because Lakers won four more games(67). Compare that to 2016-17 MVP voting. Warriors won 67 games and they had no player that finished top 5. Isaiah Thomas was 5th, ahead of Curry just because he averaged couple more points on an average team. Durant had a pretty good season too and was barely on the ballot.

The idea that someone is less valuable just because a team is good without them is obviously absurd. It also shouldn't really matter, unless you are only looking for lazy simplistic analysis, yet every year there is much discussion about players teammates and on/off numbers. Other nonsensical narratives that influence MVP race:

1.) Arbitrary numbers. Like 30 point triple double, some points streak etc. They are irrelevant and don't tell you anything by itself. Westbrook had worse season statistically than Harden, but won MVP because his numbers looked prettier. A lot of voters would probably even openly admit that they wouldn't have voted for Westbrook had he averaged 9.8 rebounds for example. The season Oscar averaged 30 point triple double and Wilt averaged 50/25 neither of them won MVP.

2.) Age. It's MVP award, you are compared to other players currently in the league, not how good other players were at 20 or 35 in the past. Rose won in 2011 partly because of that.

3.) Prior bias. Someone who improves from previous season will get a boost in voting while someone who slightly regressed will get penalized no matter how good or valuable he still is.

[90sAllDecade]

The Rockets have the lowest scoring bench in the league at 30th and the Bucks are ranked 7th right now:
https://stats.nba.com/teams/traditional/?StarterBench=Bench&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=PTS&dir=-1

If you want to check Net rating for bench, the Bucks are third in the league, with Dallas, Clippers and Lakers all top 1-4 with Houston eighth:
https://stats.nba.com/teams/advanced/?StarterBench=Bench&sort=NET_RATING&dir=-1&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

If you value PIE or Player Impact Estimate as a stat, the Bucks are second in the league with Houston 14th:
https://stats.nba.com/teams/advanced/?StarterBench=Bench&sort=PIE&dir=-1&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

I would say yes, Milwakee and Giannis' supporting cast is arguably much better if you consider bench as well right now.

Many teams have 10 player rotation in the regular season, like Bucks, Mavs, Clippers, and previous GS. Some coach, like Mike D'Antoni just would like to use the starters. That's why Rockets bench looks bad, and of course, the injuries do not help.

You are right that some teams use a set rotation of players, and believe me I know all about our reserves.

But they are still included in bench metrics and while certain stats like point totals may be affected by less playing time, others like 3pt%, impact stats if you value them and others will be based on players in that 10 man rotation's averages over the season that aren't your starters.

For example, let's look at bench TS% where the Bucks are third in the league and Houston is 21st right now.

https://stats.nba.com/teams/advanced/?StarterBench=Bench&sort=TS_PCT&dir=-1&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

Or 3pt% where the Bucks are 9th and Houston is 20th.
https://stats.nba.com/teams/traditional/?StarterBench=Bench&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=FG3_PCT&dir=-1

If you think Houston has a higher volume shooting bench is the reason for the difference, actually Milwakee has the highest bench shooting 3pt attempts in the league with Houston's bench is 6th:
https://stats.nba.com/teams/traditional/?StarterBench=Bench&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=FG3A&dir=-1

Those are also your primary reserves in those 10 man rotations. As the season progresses the sample size will be even larger, as it was last year and Milwakee had a strong bench.

Those bench players in those 10 man or larger rotations have an impact on games, wins and MVP candidate narratives for a season. But as mentioned before, we can agree to disagree.

[Barnzy]

Doncic had better game today than all other candidates.
One step closer to MVP.

Then today it was 3 steps back.

Luka ain't winning MVP. Sure, he's in conversation with 4 or 5 others but he won't win enough games.

His stats will fall off a touch also with teams locking in on him.

[Ballerhogger]

Giannis leading the pack pretty cut and dry right now . PTS
PTS-30.5
2nd
REB
12.9
6th
AST
5.7
23rd
PER
33.86
1st
AD is my second choice
PTS
27.5
6th
REB
9.3
20th
AST
3.3
62nd
PER
28.69
4th
Harden is my third choice.
PTS
38.3
1st
REB
5.9
Tied-61st
AST
7.5
9th
PER
32.10
3rd

[Ballerhogger]

i dont see AD catching Giannis . i know is early but i dont see the trend changing at all going ;towards the all star break. Bucks have nice lead over the lakers as well so if the mvp race ended today Giannis is winning it pretty handily. AD will DPOY though

[Ballerhogger]

Doncic had better game today than all other candidates.
One step closer to MVP.

Then today it was 3 steps back.

Luka ain't winning MVP. Sure, he's in conversation with 4 or 5 others but he won't win enough games.

His stats will fall off a touch also with teams locking in on him.

19 points 5-14 against the lakers who just had back to back not mvp like

[Freighttrain]

Doncic had better game today than all other candidates.
One step closer to MVP.

Then today it was 3 steps back.

Luka ain't winning MVP. Sure, he's in conversation with 4 or 5 others but he won't win enough games.

His stats will fall off a touch also with teams locking in on him.

19 points 5-14 against the lakers who just had back to back not mvp like

To be fair though, the Mavs were also on a back to back.. & Luka didn't look healthy after that hard fall.

[brettski]

If Harden pulls away from the pack (unlikely, but possible), this thread will become a ghost town.

Harden has to get to the top before he can pull away......

[scrabbarista]

Giannis leading the pack pretty cut and dry right now . PTS
PTS-30.5
2nd
REB
12.9
6th
AST
5.7
23rd
PER
33.86
1st

Just some James Harden numbers.
PTS-1226
1st
WS-7.6
1st
VORP-3.9
1st
PIPM WA-6.9
1st
RPM WINS-6.4
2nd
PER-32.0
2nd
Steals-60
3rd
Minutes-1205
3rd
Asts-240
6th
TS%-.639
15th

[dygaction]

Doncic had better game today than all other candidates.
One step closer to MVP.

Then today it was 3 steps back.

Luka ain't winning MVP. Sure, he's in conversation with 4 or 5 others but he won't win enough games.

His stats will fall off a touch also with teams locking in on him.

Did not think he would. Giannis first, and the other three are difficult to rank. Just need to give credit where credit is due. If he really cools down, I have no problem people move him behind, but not out of top 5 as of now as claimed by some.

[Yeggo Poleggo]

The MVP will be a neck and neck race between Luka and Giannis.

Both are the future faces of the NBA, Harden had his shine and will contend for MVP status for a few more years, but wont ever win it again.

[Pachinko_]

Bucks supporting cast is simultaneously awesome when we're discussing Giannis MVP chances and absolutely trash when we're discussing Bucks title chances.

Just how realgm works.

[ken6199]

Bucks supporting cast is simultaneously awesome when we're discussing Giannis MVP chances and absolutely trash when we're discussing Bucks title chances.

Just how realgm works.

KD/Green/Klay are "Iso chucker who disrupts Warriors' offense, role player on any other team, shooter who cannot dribble and overrated defender", but "four all starzzzzzzz" when it comes to Curry's MVP talk. We do the same on Iguodala when we talk about Curry missing his FMVP, or Capela/Ariza/Tucker back in 2018. Supporting cast is always one big mystery on realgm

[GreatWhiteStiff]

Doncic had better game today than all other candidates.
One step closer to MVP.

I'm not yet sold on Doncic. His stats are always impressive and his team is winning. He plays with the flash of a guy whose been around professional players since a teen. All things working in his favor. Still, what's to say its anything more than a game of light and shadow? Many are quick to anoint him, but I'm reserving judgment until he makes a serious playoff run.

Since when has MVP become a playoff award? Giannis won last season but failed in playoffs. Would you say the same about him?

Quote Giannis failed in the playoffs End Quote.

Did you watch the playoffs? Did you watch them and try to understand what you were seeing before your eyes? Do you know how many points the raptors/bucks series was decided by? Do you know who won the nba championship last season? Did you see how Giannias was being covered? Did you notice the percentage of outside shots the bucks were making in the narrowly decided series they lost. Remember again which team they lost to?

What was your narrative again?

I wish you a good day.