Suns and Bledsoe on the Verge of Irreparable Relationship

[Edrees]

And you have guys like Gilbert Arenas and Stephon Marbury who, for all intents and purposes, should still be in the NBA, but had off-court troubles that derailed their careers.

Arenas career got derailed by injuries not by off court issues. He got lots of chances after that gun incident but couldn't perform.

[bwgood77]

Jason Kidd is not under 6'4. He is taller than Dwyane Wade

He's 6'4.

You're being super arbitrary with your stats. As if that one inch makes a huge difference. It's like those stats the NBA likes to throw around even though they mean absolutely nothing.

Look at the picture. Kidd is a hell of a lot taller than Deron Williams. Here is how my life goes, I consider someone 6'4 and over tall for a PG. They say John Wall is a big guard, but they never say that about Rose. Where do you draw the line? Either way what I said is true, small guys don't excel past 32, there are exceptions but they are few and far between.

How does the guy's height have anything to do with this?

[bwgood77]

Your post is the definition of a straw-man.

Of course Dragic will not be as good in 2018, but he's had an excellent/efficient year that few guards have ever had. The all-time greats that put up those stats didn't do it in a vacuum; they weren't "all-time greats" when they were 28.

By your definition, the Spurs are idiots for inking Tony Parker into a multi-year contract, because by your arbitrary stats, he cannot succeed anymore and will only decline to the point of being "Steve Blake."

What you're failing to grasp is that a basketball player's career/impact is as individual as they are. Steve Nash is not an aberration, he's a world-class athlete (without the traditional athleticism or size) that took care of himself, spent years becoming the best shooter and offensive machine of the 2000's. Tony Parker worked his ass-off becoming a decent mid-range shooter, and it will extend his career alongside his drive/floater game.

Dragic is a highly skilled guard (with the best euro-step in the game right now) and just had a healthy year shooting INSANE, "all-time great" percentages. What more do you want?

This guy probably feels a lot like Cuban did with Nash when he was 29 and let him go. Nash wasn't any better his last year in Dallas than Dragic was this past year.

You never know with guys. Dragic has played a lot of backup minutes too, so he even has less wear and tear on him than most guys do at that age.

[King4Day]

Look at the picture. Kidd is a hell of a lot taller than Deron Williams. Here is how my life goes, I consider someone 6'4 and over tall for a PG. They say John Wall is a big guard, but they never say that about Rose. Where do you draw the line? Either way what I said is true, small guys don't excel past 32, there are exceptions but they are few and far between.

I'm bemoaning your arbitrary cutoffs.

Must be 32+

Must be under 6'4

Must have averaged 12+ points.

Must have averaged 20+ minutes.

You should be looking at similar players that played similar roles. Lot of players were mentioned in this thread already that maybe don't fit your guidelines 100%.

It's really not arbitrary at all if you simply consider where this all started...

Me: Bledsoe is the best player on the team. Give him mo' money.

Unrealistic Hater: Umm no. Dragic is the face of the franchise.

Me: Bledsoe is a better defender and 4 years younger. By the time Bledsoe is Dragic's age, Goran will be Steve Blake and Bledsoe will still be running fast and jumping high.

Unrealistic Hater: You are delusional, Dragic will still be in his prime. Bledsoe should be grateful they even offered him a contract.

Do you actually think Dragic will be as good as he is NOW in 2018? Mind you the only Guards who have produced at Dragic's current level when they were that age, we ALL-TIME GREATS. The 20mpg/12ppg thing was me just being a little flexible.

Who's to say Bledsoe, 4 years from now, won't be a bust? Dragic started out as a player who was seen as having little upside that would barely have a long term NBA career. Now he's an all NBA'er. After returning from injury, Bledsoe wasn't the same defender and still can't shoot.

Higher upside? Sure. But for the argument of who was the best Suns player on last year's team? Having seen close to every game... it was Dragic and it wasn't really close.

[og15]

I would take Dragic over Bledsoe, for two reasons.

1. Bledsoe seems injury prone, and I think he has had part of his meniscus removed. I think that Wade's issues with his knee have to do with missing meniscus

2. Bledsoe is a bit undersized at 6' 0.25" barefoot.

There is a 3.5 year age difference between Dragic and Bledsoe, but the Total Career Minutes difference is about 5,000 minutes (10,600 to 5,500). That's about 1.5-2.0 seasons or so.

Dragic's ORTG/DRTG from BBall Ref last year was 119/109 (+9). Bledsoe's was 110/106 (+4). Their WS/48 were .186 (GD) to .140 (EB).

Dragic is the bigger and better player, at least at this time. My guess is he will have less injury issues going forward, also, as compared with the shorter Bledsoe.

Careful with individual Drtg, not really a stat that says too much. At it's most basic, it is team defensive rating plus defensive stats (defensive rebounds, steals, blocks), it isn't the teams Drtg when the player is on which I think is what most people believe it represents. If you want to find that, look at on/off numbers. Not sure there's much real value to individual Drtg.

Good point. I did know that it was "individual DRTG" and that is why I used it here, because I just wanted to get some kind of ballpark "feel" for where GD and EB might be at (in Individual ORTG/DRTG).

All the numbers show Bledsoe is the better defender.

Individual DRTG (lower is better)

GD --> 109
EB ---> 106


Defensive xRAPM (larger positive number is better)

GD --> -0.9
EB ---> +3.0


Defensive points per 100 possessions (On - Off) (larger negative number is better)

GD --> +0.6
EB ---> -6.2

*
*
*

The difference in the overall effectiveness of the players comes because the gap between Dragic's On/Off offense and Bledsoe's On/Off offense is larger than the gap between Bledsoe's On/Off defense and Dragic's On/Off defense (which is the point I was trying to make with the individual ORTG/DRTG stuff I first put in).

As Dragic has a negative xRAPM for defense (2013-14), so Bledsoe has a negative xRAPM for offense (2013-14). The numbers work out such that, according to 82games, here are the Net Points Per 100 Possessions for each player for the 2013-14 season (larger positive number is better). This is the positive number of points that the player adds to the team by being "on" the court rather than "off" of it Per 100 Possessions.

GD --> +9.5
EB ---> +3.0

The difference there being 6.5. The difference between the two "positive net's" in the Individual ORTG - Individual DRTG was 5 (+9 vs +4). So, the Individual ORTG/DRTG in this instance was fairly on target, if only for this one example. Still, I'm sure On/Off and xRAPM are better or more exact measurements, or more useful.


PLAIN ENGLISH SUMMARY:


* Dragic had a slightly negative effect for PHX's defense by being "on" the court in 2013-14
* Bledsoe had a slightly negative effect for PHX's offense by being "on" the court in 2013-14

* Dragic had a substantially positive effect for PHX's offense by being "on" the court in 2013-14
* Bledsoe had a substantially positive effect for PHX's defense by being "on" the court in 2013-14

* Dragic's positive effect on PHX's offense was larger than Bledsoe's positive effect on PHX's defense when each player was "on" the court in 2013-14.

Well I certainly don't doubt the conclusion that Bledsoe is a better defender being a Clippers fan and all, just saying that the individual defensive rating stat is a bit tricky because I think most people think it is team defensive rating when the player is on the court when it is actually just a calculation based on team defensive rating + how many "stops" (steals, blocks, defensive rebounds + non statistical stops) a player gets. The obvious flaw (which Dean Oliver knows of course) is the assumption that every player contributes equally to non-statistical misses and turnovers. So basically it is saying if all players contribute equally to that, then the guys who have the best combination of steals, blocks and defensive rebounds are having the best defensive impact (which obviously we know isn't actually true, though it can be). That is why big men almost always have the best individual ratings on a team, and why a guy like Boozer has a great defensive rating (team defensive rating is very good), and per 36 Boozer gets 8.3 DREB, 0.9 stl, 0.4 blk.

Individual Defensive rating is calculated as:
DRtg = Team_Defensive_Rating + 0.2 * (100 * D_Pts_per_ScPoss * (1 - Stop%) - Team_Defensive_Rating)

The higher the stop%, the lower the rating, and obviously the lower the team DRTG, the lower the number. In calculating Stops, you have stops 1 and stops 2.
Stops1 = STL + BLK * FMwt * (1 - 1.07 * DOR%) + DRB * (1 - FMwt)

FMwt = (DFG% * (1 - DOR%)) / (DFG% * (1 - DOR%) + (1 - DFG%) * DOR%)

Stops2 = (((Opponent_FGA - Opponent_FGM - Team_BLK) / Team_MP) * FMwt * (1 - 1.07 * DOR%) + ((Opponent_TOV - Team_STL) / Team_MP)) * MP + (PF / Team_PF) * 0.4 * Opponent_FTA * (1 - (Opponent_FTM / Opponent_FTA))^2

FMwt is forced misses, the issue we have here is that forced misses are estimated based on the team forced misses. So like mentioned before, it assumes that every player on a team forces an equal amount of turnovers and misses not accounted for by blocks and steals. You can see that stops are based on team stats except for steals, blocks and dreb.

The core of the Defensive Rating calculation is the concept of the individual Defensive Stop. Stops take into account the instances of a player ending an opposing possession that are tracked in the boxscore (blocks, steals, and defensive rebounds), in addition to an estimate for the number of forced turnovers and forced misses by the player which aren't captured by steals and blocks.

This is in contrast to team defensive rating which is:
Team_Defensive_Rating = 100 * (Opponent_PTS / Team_Possessions)

Calculations can be seen here:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html

So yea, not saying your conclusion is wrong, but it isn't right because of defensive rating. Since they are on the same team, the difference in their defensive rating is:
Bledsoe (stls + blk = 1.9), dreb = 4.1, 106 Drtg
Dragic (stls + blk = 1.7), dreb = 2.3, 109 Drtg
Frye (stls + blk = 1.5), dreb = 4.2, 107 Drtg

[HotRocks34]

*snip*

So yea, not saying your conclusion is wrong, but it isn't right because of defensive rating. Since they are on the same team, the difference in their defensive rating is:
Bledsoe (stls + blk = 1.9), dreb = 4.1, 106 Drtg
Dragic (stls + blk = 1.7), dreb = 2.3, 109 Drtg
Frye (stls + blk = 1.5), dreb = 4.2, 107 Drtg

Great point and thanks for the explanation. That definitely helps my understanding of Individual Defensive Rating, and I will be more aware of its limits going forward.

[I_Never Lied]

Again please find me some 32 year old PG in their prime.

You want Steve Blake?

Nash was in his prime at 32 (his best year), and still very solid until he was 37. http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... hst01.html

Stockton was in his prime at 32 (his best year) and was also extremely solid for years after that. http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... kjo01.html

Dragic is just 28 though. So lets say he hits his prime at 32. That's 3-4 more years of improvement, so even if he starts to decline then, he might be 35-36 before he gets back to the level he is right now, which is borderline all star.

He has also only started for two years, so he likely will peak a little later than most point guards as he gains more experience playing with starters and better players.

This is exactly what I am against. You think Dragic is going to get better every year from now until 2017-18, well I think when the 2016-17 season starts, Dragic will be on the obvious decline. Obvious decline, while Bledsoe will still be young, fresh and tender. I don't consider Nash/Stockton as examples for Dragic. In three years I am going to bump this thread, bump this thread and come looking for YOU.

[I_Never Lied]

Your post is the definition of a straw-man.

Of course Dragic will not be as good in 2018, but he's had an excellent/efficient year that few guards have ever had. The all-time greats that put up those stats didn't do it in a vacuum; they weren't "all-time greats" when they were 28.

By your definition, the Spurs are idiots for inking Tony Parker into a multi-year contract, because by your arbitrary stats, he cannot succeed anymore and will only decline to the point of being "Steve Blake."

What you're failing to grasp is that a basketball player's career/impact is as individual as they are. Steve Nash is not an aberration, he's a world-class athlete (without the traditional athleticism or size) that took care of himself, spent years becoming the best shooter and offensive machine of the 2000's. Tony Parker worked his ass-off becoming a decent mid-range shooter, and it will extend his career alongside his drive/floater game.

Dragic is a highly skilled guard (with the best euro-step in the game right now) and just had a healthy year shooting INSANE, "all-time great" percentages. What more do you want?

First of all, Tony Parker is on a STRICT minute plan. Tony is a HOF'er anyway and that new extension is a 'thank you' which he deserves. But you can believe that he will start declining starting this year, it wont be as pronounced because of the super tight minute restrictions. he is lucky he has Popovich there to baby him.


The rest of what you said, I really don't understand. Goran will play well for the next 2-3 years and then be a drastically worse player than he is now.

[bwgood77]

This is exactly what I am against. You think Dragic is going to get better every year from now until 2017-18, well I think when the 2016-17 season starts, Dragic will be on the obvious decline. Obvious decline, while Bledsoe will still be young, fresh and tender. I don't consider Nash/Stockton as examples for Dragic. In three years I am going to bump this thread, bump this thread and come looking for YOU.

I guess we will see. It's funny you ask for examples of ANY point guards who were at their prime at 32, I name two, and then you say they don't count. OK. Good argument. Two white guys that are about the same size, rely on their craftiness as opposed to great athleticism are bad examples. OK mate.

Nothing is definite. He may get better for the next four years and then slowly decline, meaning in about 6-8 years he is back to this level, or he may not, but I wouldn't be on him suddenly declining and being a far worse player than he is now in 3 years. If he improves a couple more years, he won't suddenly decline quickly, as people who figure out how to play at a high level like this in the NBA won't drop off quickly unless their body gives out.

Bledsoe's body is more likely to give out. It already has a couple of times. Bledsoe could be better in four years too if his future is drastically different than his past and his knee is stronger going forward with less cartilage, but it's not exactly something I'd bet on.

[improper]

Who's to say Bledsoe, 4 years from now, won't be a bust? Dragic started out as a player who was seen as having little upside that would barely have a long term NBA career. Now he's an all NBA'er. After returning from injury, Bledsoe wasn't the same defender and still can't shoot.

Higher upside? Sure. But for the argument of who was the best Suns player on last year's team? Having seen close to every game... it was Dragic and it wasn't really close.

Guys that are as good as Bledsoe is right now don't generally just become busts overnight. Unless he suffers some sort of career-ending injury, it's hard to see him just becoming a scrub at this point.

[toucansma]

I swear this thread is being dominated by Rich Paul & his team responding to anyone that says anything negative about Bledsoe and/or supports the Suns current position.

[NapoleonII]

Your post is the definition of a straw-man.

Of course Dragic will not be as good in 2018, but he's had an excellent/efficient year that few guards have ever had. The all-time greats that put up those stats didn't do it in a vacuum; they weren't "all-time greats" when they were 28.

By your definition, the Spurs are idiots for inking Tony Parker into a multi-year contract, because by your arbitrary stats, he cannot succeed anymore and will only decline to the point of being "Steve Blake."

What you're failing to grasp is that a basketball player's career/impact is as individual as they are. Steve Nash is not an aberration, he's a world-class athlete (without the traditional athleticism or size) that took care of himself, spent years becoming the best shooter and offensive machine of the 2000's. Tony Parker worked his ass-off becoming a decent mid-range shooter, and it will extend his career alongside his drive/floater game.

Dragic is a highly skilled guard (with the best euro-step in the game right now) and just had a healthy year shooting INSANE, "all-time great" percentages. What more do you want?

First of all, Tony Parker is on a STRICT minute plan. Tony is a HOF'er anyway and that new extension is a 'thank you' which he deserves. But you can believe that he will start declining starting this year, it wont be as pronounced because of the super tight minute restrictions. he is lucky he has Popovich there to baby him.


The rest of what you said, I really don't understand. Goran will play well for the next 2-3 years and then be a drastically worse player than he is now.

Okay, add "must play "at least 29.5 minutes for 66 games of the season" to the rest of your arbitrary stat requirements that aren't proving anything.

Seriously, are you Rich Paul?

[King4Day]

Who's to say Bledsoe, 4 years from now, won't be a bust? Dragic started out as a player who was seen as having little upside that would barely have a long term NBA career. Now he's an all NBA'er. After returning from injury, Bledsoe wasn't the same defender and still can't shoot.

Higher upside? Sure. But for the argument of who was the best Suns player on last year's team? Having seen close to every game... it was Dragic and it wasn't really close.

Guys that are as good as Bledsoe is right now don't generally just become busts overnight. Unless he suffers some sort of career-ending injury, it's hard to see him just becoming a scrub at this point.

Unlikely, sure, but it's also possible he could have peaked already. Who would have thought Dragic would become a star 4 years ago.
Bledsoe won't be a bust but, and I really hope I'm wrong on this, it's possible he has already hit his ceiling too.

[lilfishi22]

Do you actually think Dragic will be as good as he is NOW in 2018? Mind you the only Guards who have produced at Dragic's current level when they were that age, we ALL-TIME GREATS. The 20mpg/12ppg thing was me just being a little flexible.

That's all fine and dandy but if the comparison is Dragic vs Bledsoe, and you're taking Dragic's "decline" into consideration, then you HAVE to take Bledsoe's injury history and style of play into consideration as well.

There's legit reason why the Suns (nor anyone else) has offered him a max deal.

[Trader_Joe]

He never addressed Tony Parker, who has been 32 since December and just got a major contract or even a guy like Gary Payton who was a 20/8 player from age 31-34.

Tony Park turned 32 in May during the WCF. Parker at 31 years old, Popovich only plays him 29 MPG. Imagine if he played Parker the same minutes he played when he was Eric Bledsoe's age?

Gary Payton is a very big 6'4 HOF PG, not Goran.

Dragic is listed as 6'4" on some sites
Kidd was 6'3" barefoot at the draft combine.

BTW...I cannot believe all but one of your posts ever are all in this topic.

[noelphx]

Your post is the definition of a straw-man.

Of course Dragic will not be as good in 2018, but he's had an excellent/efficient year that few guards have ever had. The all-time greats that put up those stats didn't do it in a vacuum; they weren't "all-time greats" when they were 28.

By your definition, the Spurs are idiots for inking Tony Parker into a multi-year contract, because by your arbitrary stats, he cannot succeed anymore and will only decline to the point of being "Steve Blake."

What you're failing to grasp is that a basketball player's career/impact is as individual as they are. Steve Nash is not an aberration, he's a world-class athlete (without the traditional athleticism or size) that took care of himself, spent years becoming the best shooter and offensive machine of the 2000's. Tony Parker worked his ass-off becoming a decent mid-range shooter, and it will extend his career alongside his drive/floater game.

Dragic is a highly skilled guard (with the best euro-step in the game right now) and just had a healthy year shooting INSANE, "all-time great" percentages. What more do you want?

First of all, Tony Parker is on a STRICT minute plan. Tony is a HOF'er anyway and that new extension is a 'thank you' which he deserves. But you can believe that he will start declining starting this year, it wont be as pronounced because of the super tight minute restrictions. he is lucky he has Popovich there to baby him.


The rest of what you said, I really don't understand. Goran will play well for the next 2-3 years and then be a drastically worse player than he is now.

Rich Paul, maybe you should stop trolling the interwebz and get back to work on negotiating for your client. You are failing at your job.

[Frank Lee]

Nice argument NeverLie.....


How is it working with Lon Babby and Ryan McDo ? Oh, thats right.... still no other offers for this future superstar.


Bled needs to quit being a b!tch, ink up and play ball. Excel in a system practically tailor made for him. If he is as good as you say he is, he will certainly garner a max deal in 3-4 yrs*.....Face it, Kyle Lowry set his ticket price. And its a fair one. But hey, if you want to pay 3 mill over sticker price, go ahead.... you won't find many that will (obvious comment backed by fact)

*oops, he will be 27-28 yrs old though and on his 'decline'

[I_Never Lied]

Your post is the definition of a straw-man.

Of course Dragic will not be as good in 2018, but he's had an excellent/efficient year that few guards have ever had. The all-time greats that put up those stats didn't do it in a vacuum; they weren't "all-time greats" when they were 28.

By your definition, the Spurs are idiots for inking Tony Parker into a multi-year contract, because by your arbitrary stats, he cannot succeed anymore and will only decline to the point of being "Steve Blake."

What you're failing to grasp is that a basketball player's career/impact is as individual as they are. Steve Nash is not an aberration, he's a world-class athlete (without the traditional athleticism or size) that took care of himself, spent years becoming the best shooter and offensive machine of the 2000's. Tony Parker worked his ass-off becoming a decent mid-range shooter, and it will extend his career alongside his drive/floater game.

Dragic is a highly skilled guard (with the best euro-step in the game right now) and just had a healthy year shooting INSANE, "all-time great" percentages. What more do you want?

First of all, Tony Parker is on a STRICT minute plan. Tony is a HOF'er anyway and that new extension is a 'thank you' which he deserves. But you can believe that he will start declining starting this year, it wont be as pronounced because of the super tight minute restrictions. he is lucky he has Popovich there to baby him.


The rest of what you said, I really don't understand. Goran will play well for the next 2-3 years and then be a drastically worse player than he is now.

Okay, add "must play between "at least 29.5 minutes for 66 games of the season" to the rest of your arbitrary stat requirements that aren't proving anything.

Seriously, are you Rich Paul?

How could I possibly be Rich Paul? I mean would YOU be on this forum right now if LeBron was your best friend?

Either way, Parker's EXTREME TIGHT minute restriction is a clear indictment that Popovich knows the decline is looming. Guys in their "Prime" aren't being pulled with 5 minutes left in the 1st Quarter.

[Qwigglez]

Eric Bledsoe's brother, is that you?

On a serious note, I hope Bledsoe stays with the Suns for the original offer of 48mil/4 years. He hasn't shown he deserves more with that as he is seriously injury prone. He may be younger than Dragic, but at least Dragic can stay on the court for most of the year.

[I_Never Lied]

He never addressed Tony Parker, who has been 32 since December and just got a major contract or even a guy like Gary Payton who was a 20/8 player from age 31-34.

Tony Park turned 32 in May during the WCF. Parker at 31 years old, Popovich only plays him 29 MPG. Imagine if he played Parker the same minutes he played when he was Eric Bledsoe's age?

Gary Payton is a very big 6'4 HOF PG, not Goran.

Dragic is listed as 6'4" on some sites
Kidd was 6'3" barefoot at the draft combine.

BTW...I cannot believe all but one of your posts ever are all in this topic.

So are you saying Dragic and Kidd are the same size?