2025 NBA FINALS: #1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs #4 Indiana Pacers (IND leads 1-0)

[wang000hk]

Like I said before the series started, OKC's biggest weakness is consistency in outside shooting and it already showed in game 1
They can't afford to shoot this bad again as a team if they want to win the whole thing

They played great defense pretty much all night long but Pacers is too good in offense to get bothered by their defense in late game situations
In other words, J-Dub and Chet need to show up on offensive end to avoid a potential upset

[makubesu]

Start the Nesmith MVP campaign, that’s my guy

[Los_29]

okc can’t screw around. there’s just no guarantee you ever get back here. I know they are set up well but if you lose this series you might not ever win one. you’re always one bad break from losing before the finals.

I was incredibly thankful boston got the job done because real possibility we don’t win another.

It’s never been harder to win multiple championships. There is just so much parity. I thought Boston could reel off a couple in a row and all of a sudden they don’t look as dominant and injuries strike. OKC is such a good team but they need to win this one. Their guys are going to be more expensive soon and you can’t count on guys like Chet staying healthy.

[WestbrookGOATed]

Just rewatched the last 6 mins from last night. Had to let the emotions settle lol. The guys that voted Haliburton most overrated player really lit a fire under his ass. That man is the real deal. I would love to stick with my prediction of Thunder in 5, but it looks like this bad boy is gonna go 7, which is great for the neutral fans watching.

[Jailblazers7]

I’ll be very interested to see the Thunder respond. The emotions of the Finals are tough to manage for a young team but they have a lot they can improve upon in Game 2 on offense.

[Pattycakes]

All 99% of you idiots that forget that any given team can always win at this stage, how are you eating your crow today?

Are we playing the complete denial, or excuses, or are we appreciating and acknowledging the team that played better at the end of the day?

Go Pacers. I didn’t care, now I do. Screw cocky POS

[pingpongrac]

Unbelievable ending, these Pacers are ridiculous. Can't believe they keep pulling off the same ****, Real Madrid levels of psychological edge here.

That being said, I'm going to double down on my prediction. I think this is the only game Pacers take in this series. I always thought they could only win by shooting a ridiculous percentage from 3 and I think this was it.

[/b]I think OKC is more likely to replicate their turnover forcing than Pacers are their 3PT shooting.[/b] Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren probably won't disappear to the extent that they have.

Maybe they have another one in them, but I don't see them winning the title. Either way, what a start to the Finals. I'd be glad to be wrong and get a great competitive series.

What makes you think that? The 25 turnovers forced by OKC was their highest mark of their playoff run thus far and the 7 turnovers committed was their lowest mark while the 7 turnovers forced by Indiana was their lowest mark of their playoff run thus far and the 25 turnovers committed was their highest mark. OKC came into the Finals averaging 11.8 TOV per game with a 2.15 AST/TO ratio while Indiana came into the Finals averaging 12.7 TOV per game with a 2.21 AST/TO ratio. The odds of OKC having another game where they win the possession battle by 15-20 is damn near impossible.

On the flip side, the Pacers have a lot of shooters (Nesmith shot 43% for the season, Turner shot 40%, Haliburton and Siakam shot 39% and Toppin shot 37% while Nembhard was ~36% his first two seasons and 48% last playoff run) and they had been even better in the playoffs (Nesmith shot 50% in the first 3 rounds, Nembhard shot 48%, Siakam shot 46% and Turner shot 40% while Haliburton at 33% and Toppin at 29% were the only guys who saw their numbers dip). As a team, Indiana came into the Finals averaging 13.4 3FGM on 40% — but they had a handful of games similar to last night (16 3FGM on 44% in G2 vs MIL, 18 3FGM on 46% in G4 vs MIL, 19 3FGM on 53% in G1 vs CLE, 15 3FGM on 43% in both G4 and G5 vs CLE, 17 3FGM on 52% in G6 vs NYK, etc.). It is all but guaranteed that Indiana will have another game where they hit 15+ threes on +40% shooting.

So many people have been glazing OKC for their historic defence while ignoring the fact that Indiana is a very good team that has peaked at the perfect time and they're pretty battle-tested now. Indiana has had so many hard-fought wins where they have had to produce in the clutch whereas OKC cruised through the majority of the first 3 rounds and their inexperience reared its head again last night. The coaching advantage and playoff experience is pretty big for Indiana. That matters at this stage.

[MoneyTalks41890]

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[Pattycakes]

Unbelievable ending, these Pacers are ridiculous. Can't believe they keep pulling off the same ****, Real Madrid levels of psychological edge here.

That being said, I'm going to double down on my prediction. I think this is the only game Pacers take in this series. I always thought they could only win by shooting a ridiculous percentage from 3 and I think this was it.

[/b]I think OKC is more likely to replicate their turnover forcing than Pacers are their 3PT shooting.[/b] Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren probably won't disappear to the extent that they have.

Maybe they have another one in them, but I don't see them winning the title. Either way, what a start to the Finals. I'd be glad to be wrong and get a great competitive series.

What makes you think that? The 25 turnovers forced by OKC was their highest mark of their playoff run thus far amd the 7 turnovers committed was their lowest mark while the 7 turnovers forced by Indiana was their lowest mark of their playoff run thus far and the 25 turnovers committed was their highest mark. OKC came into the Finals averaging 11.8 TOV per game with a 2.15 AST/TO ratio while Indiana came into the Finals averaging 12.7 TOV per game with a 2.21 AST/TO ratio. The odds of OKC having another game where they win the possession battle by 15-20 is damn near impossible.

On the flip side, the Pacers have a lot of shooters (Nesmith shot 43% for the season, Turner shot 40%, Haliburton and Siakam shot 39% and Toppin shot 37% while Nembhard was ~36% his first two seasons and 48% last playoff run) and they had been even better in the playoffs (Nesmith shot 50% in the first 3 rounds, Nembhard shot 48%, Siakam shot 46% and Turner shot 40% while Haliburton at 33% and Toppin at 29% were the only guys who saw their numbers dip). As a team, Indiana came into the Finals averaging 13.4 3FGM on 40% — but they had a handful of games similar to last night (16 3FGM on 44% in G2 vs MIL, 18 3FGM on 46% in G4 vs MIL, 19 3FGM on 53% in G1 vs CLE, 15 3FGM on 43% in both G4 and G5 vs CLE, 17 3FGM on 52% in G6 vs NYK, etc.).

So many people have been glazing OKC for their historic defence while ignoring the fact that Indiana is a very good team that has peaked at the perfect time and they're pretty battle-tested now. Indiana has had so many hard-fought wins where they have had to produce in the clutch whereas OKC cruised through the majority of the first 3 rounds and their inexperience reared its head again last night. The coaching advantage and playoff experience is pretty big for Indiana.

Thunder fans have reached complete denial. They cannot understand that they won’t cakewalk to a dynasty. It actually doesn’t compute in their brains. Give it 7 years and they’ll come back to reality when they’ll be lucky if they get one.

Yeah luck, you still need that in this league imagine that.

[Exp0sed]

Indy is just nuts, we won't see another run like this again, with the specific way they're consistently doing it. Hali is having the GOAT run in terms of clutchness and these multiple comeback wins from 98%, 99% or even a 100% loss probablity late in the 4th vs. teams that are absoulote juggernauts is something we're likely never to see again

game one was of the sickest and weirdest games i've ever seen

still think the Thunder should be able to take care of business. I think Mark D. outsmarted himself imo, just overthinking and over analysing. really weird decision to preempitively change his lineup to match-up' (match-down in this case with Indy, in game 1 on their home floor. hard to argue that's the reason they lost as they demolished the Pacers with that lineup in the first half but I still think it was a mistake and would be surprised if coach doesn't go back to their best starting lineup in game 2

at this point I think every neutral fan is rooting for the Pacers, right? OKC are likeable in their own right but you gotta go with the biggest cinderalle story ever, no?

OKC in 6

[MoneyTalks41890]

Thunder fans have reached complete denial. They cannot understand that they won’t cakewalk to a dynasty. It actually doesn’t compute in their brains. Give it 7 years and they’ll come back to reality when they’ll be lucky if they get one.

Yeah luck, you still need that in this league imagine that.

“Thunder fans” and it’s everybody except Thunder fans saying the things you’re complaining about.

[Bloodbather]

Unbelievable ending, these Pacers are ridiculous. Can't believe they keep pulling off the same ****, Real Madrid levels of psychological edge here.

That being said, I'm going to double down on my prediction. I think this is the only game Pacers take in this series. I always thought they could only win by shooting a ridiculous percentage from 3 and I think this was it.

[/b]I think OKC is more likely to replicate their turnover forcing than Pacers are their 3PT shooting.[/b] Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren probably won't disappear to the extent that they have.

Maybe they have another one in them, but I don't see them winning the title. Either way, what a start to the Finals. I'd be glad to be wrong and get a great competitive series.

What makes you think that? The 25 turnovers forced by OKC was their highest mark of their playoff run thus far amd the 7 turnovers committed was their lowest mark while the 7 turnovers forced by Indiana was their lowest mark of their playoff run thus far and the 25 turnovers committed was their highest mark. OKC came into the Finals averaging 11.8 TOV per game with a 2.15 AST/TO ratio while Indiana came into the Finals averaging 12.7 TOV per game with a 2.21 AST/TO ratio. The odds of OKC having another game where they win the possession battle by 15-20 is damn near impossible.

On the flip side, the Pacers have a lot of shooters (Nesmith shot 43% for the season, Turner shot 40%, Haliburton and Siakam shot 39% and Toppin shot 37% while Nembhard was ~36% his first two seasons and 48% last playoff run) and they had been even better in the playoffs (Nesmith shot 50% in the first 3 rounds, Nembhard shot 48%, Siakam shot 46% and Turner shot 40% while Haliburton at 33% and Toppin at 29% were the only guys who saw their numbers dip). As a team, Indiana came into the Finals averaging 13.4 3FGM on 40% — but they had a handful of games similar to last night (16 3FGM on 44% in G2 vs MIL, 18 3FGM on 46% in G4 vs MIL, 19 3FGM on 53% in G1 vs CLE, 15 3FGM on 43% in both G4 and G5 vs CLE, 17 3FGM on 52% in G6 vs NYK, etc.).

So many people have been glazing OKC for their historic defence while ignoring the fact that Indiana is a very good team that has peaked at the perfect time and they're pretty battle-tested now. Indiana has had so many hard-fought wins where they have had to produce in the clutch whereas OKC cruised through the majority of the first 3 rounds and their inexperience reared its head again last night. The coaching advantage and playoff experience is pretty big for Indiana.

Thunder fans have reached complete denial. They cannot understand that they won’t cakewalk to a dynasty. It actually doesn’t compute in their brains. Give it 7 years and they’ll come back to reality when they’ll be lucky if they get one.

Yeah luck, you still need that in this league imagine that.

I'm a Heat fan, though.

[Bloodbather]

Oh. So you're one of those people who think OKC is so far above the pacers that of course they're going to walk away with it.

That's unfortunate. I thought the pacers finally started getting their flowers.

You don't get flowers after winning game 1. The series just started

It's actually game 17 after a 82 game season.

Its his fault for thinking it was gonna be a cake walk series for OKC.

He already back tracked anyway. Said he was doubling down that OKC wins 4 games to 1 and then immediately said Indy can win another game if they shoot the way they did last night again.

Yes that's usually how it works. If you put the ball in the hole for more points you usually win.

I didn't back track. That they might get another one is included in the last paragraph of the post you replied to. It's also included in the initial prediction post I made. I said I'm going with a 4-1 with 4-2 being plausible all along, no changes. I'm still going with a 4-1. I also said that I think it's unlikely that they replicate the shooting, that was the point. Cut the crap.

[WestbrookGOATed]

Unbelievable ending, these Pacers are ridiculous. Can't believe they keep pulling off the same ****, Real Madrid levels of psychological edge here.

That being said, I'm going to double down on my prediction. I think this is the only game Pacers take in this series. I always thought they could only win by shooting a ridiculous percentage from 3 and I think this was it.

[/b]I think OKC is more likely to replicate their turnover forcing than Pacers are their 3PT shooting.[/b] Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren probably won't disappear to the extent that they have.

Maybe they have another one in them, but I don't see them winning the title. Either way, what a start to the Finals. I'd be glad to be wrong and get a great competitive series.

What makes you think that? The 25 turnovers forced by OKC was their highest mark of their playoff run thus far amd the 7 turnovers committed was their lowest mark while the 7 turnovers forced by Indiana was their lowest mark of their playoff run thus far and the 25 turnovers committed was their highest mark. OKC came into the Finals averaging 11.8 TOV per game with a 2.15 AST/TO ratio while Indiana came into the Finals averaging 12.7 TOV per game with a 2.21 AST/TO ratio. The odds of OKC having another game where they win the possession battle by 15-20 is damn near impossible.

On the flip side, the Pacers have a lot of shooters (Nesmith shot 43% for the season, Turner shot 40%, Haliburton and Siakam shot 39% and Toppin shot 37% while Nembhard was ~36% his first two seasons and 48% last playoff run) and they had been even better in the playoffs (Nesmith shot 50% in the first 3 rounds, Nembhard shot 48%, Siakam shot 46% and Turner shot 40% while Haliburton at 33% and Toppin at 29% were the only guys who saw their numbers dip). As a team, Indiana came into the Finals averaging 13.4 3FGM on 40% — but they had a handful of games similar to last night (16 3FGM on 44% in G2 vs MIL, 18 3FGM on 46% in G4 vs MIL, 19 3FGM on 53% in G1 vs CLE, 15 3FGM on 43% in both G4 and G5 vs CLE, 17 3FGM on 52% in G6 vs NYK, etc.).

So many people have been glazing OKC for their historic defence while ignoring the fact that Indiana is a very good team that has peaked at the perfect time and they're pretty battle-tested now. Indiana has had so many hard-fought wins where they have had to produce in the clutch whereas OKC cruised through the majority of the first 3 rounds and their inexperience reared its head again last night. The coaching advantage and playoff experience is pretty big for Indiana.

Thunder fans have reached complete denial. They cannot understand that they won’t cakewalk to a dynasty. It actually doesn’t compute in their brains. Give it 7 years and they’ll come back to reality when they’ll be lucky if they get one.

Yeah luck, you still need that in this league imagine that.

Who the hell are you even talking about dude? I haven't seen any cocky Thunder fans on here.

[1bigfan13]

I voted Thunder in 7, and I'm still comfortable with that prediction.

Last night I felt that Mark Daigneault pulled a John Harbaugh/Baltimore Ravens.....he went away from what worked all year in a crucial playoff game.

In real time I said it was a huge mistake for them not to have a big on the court during the final few minutes of the game. Especially since they were only shooting 40% and needed the extra possessions. Plus the Pacers were destroying them on the glass.

THAT'S WHY PRESTI WENT OUT AND SIGNED HARTENSTEIN, MARK!!!!

Because that's exactly how the Mavs ran them out of last year's playoffs. I just don't understand how you don't learn from history, especially when you were personally involved in said history. SMDH

As long as Mark D. gets back to the normal rotations and stops overthinking things, I think the Thunder will be OK.

[1bigfan13]

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Chet needs to play with more force for OKC to have a shot. He looked very timid out there last night and you saw it in the results.

[GeorgeSears]

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Could be worse. For instance, you could have one of your 18 ppg starters average 9 ppg in the playoffs.

[cgf]

BTW, this is probably the closest the Pacers will get to a championship. OKC will adjust.

...until their next win. OKC will adjust and Indiana will counter-adjust, and OKC will need to counter their counters. Problem is Indy has the better coach to make those adjustments...

And Carlisle is very good at working the refs, when he has to.

[Crunch 99]

Thunder really showed their youth in that one. Very disorganized offensively with J-Dub and Chet leading the way with some really ill-advised offensive possessions. I honestly thought it was smart of SGA to shoot so often because the rest of the team was struggling.

They might need to play Hartenstein over Chet because he gives them a second offense hub. Run some DHOs off Hartenstein to have at least a competent looking halfcourt offense.

Huge props to Indy for being so resilient and shooting the ball so well. Their 4th quarter shooting has been unbelievable in the playoffs. I keep waiting for them to revert to the mean but it just never happens.

The underappreciated Pacers have been an efficient, offensive Q4 team all season long. Their 61.4% TS% for regular season Q4s led the NBA. They are scoring 28.1 ppg on 60% TS% in playoff Q4s vs 29.3 ppg on 61.4% TS% regular season Q4s. The Thunder are scoring 28.5 ppg on 58% TS% in playoff Q4s vs 27.9 ppg on 57.3 TS% regular season Q4s.

https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/advanced?Period=4&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&dir=A&sort=TS_PCT

Surprisingly, the most efficient, offensive Q4 playoff team has been the Clippers, who averaged 28.4 ppg on 66% TS% in a first round exit.

https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/advanced?Period=4&SeasonType=Playoffs&dir=A&sort=TS_PCT

[davidfr94]

Really impressive win. Don't think it means much though. Okc lost in an anwful way against denver in game 1 and still won (and in a blow out in game 7).

Happy that we didn't get destroyed and still have hope to win this series.

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