The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III

[Alatan]

And if you want to build around Mitchell, you will need length and a good defensive point guard to mask his defficiencies too.
Which the Utah Jazz have btw.

Mitchell is a good defender and has great length and size for his position of PG. He doesnt need a good defender next to him, he is a good defender.

I also think that Simmons' game is easy to gameplan for. Start defending him at around 16 feet from the basket. Defend the pass and make him attack the rim. Paddle back and contest at the rim. Force him to to his left hand and let him shoot his running hooks. If it is the case, we will see in the playoffs.

We will see indeed, but if it's that easy, why aren't teams doing it.
Simmons is the type of player that can impact games without scoring. That's to a lot lesser extent the case with Donovan Mitchell, who I really, really like btw.

I disagree, Simmons needs the ball in his hands and relies on shooters hitting their shots to impact the game. Once teams start to defend him like Rondo his impact will fall of the cliff. Team are just scared of his size so they over help on him, but he almost always finishes with his right and is not a great leaper when attacking the rim so a single defender is all you need to make him inefficient. If the defender is bulkier or longer i think he can completely shut down Simmons. Maybe im wrong, we shall see.

But all the stats tell there's a reasonable gap between the two.

Stats lie. They reward impact for simple passes, correlate defense with rebounding, gambling and bad backups and presume efficiency is the same with any load in any role.
Simmons stats are inflated by having the ball so much, being a pass first guy, not having a scoring load, having a rebounding role and playing in front of weak backups.

Mitchell stats are deflated by sharing the ball in a motion offense (witch i think is great), playing as a primary scoring option in a team with bad spacing and playing in mixed lineups in a good defensive system.

Simmons is a good player but too limited. If he gets a jumper and starts finishing with his left hand he will be a much better player than he is now and then we can compare him to Mithcell.

[Marcus]

Question for people who have not read all the Fultz articles...why are people so skeptical that he can get back to what made him so appealing as the top pick? Is it just some stupid narrative that isn't fair or is there something to legitimately be concerned about? It was nice to see him out there...I'm sure this has been the longest year for him trying to get back. Cool surprise when i tuned into the games.

I personally think it's narrative. Like I said earlier in the thread these kids are expected to be 150% of the superstars they were
projected to be night in and night out without any drop-offs or they're considered "bust" or "overrated". Everyone is expected to be legends from day one, so when there's a weird scenario like what has happened with Fultz this year he's automatically written off as if his talent somehow disappeared.

I think the kid gradually gets his body in game shape, regains his confidence, takes the off-season to restart and come back next year to show what he's capable of in what should be an ideal situation with the other talent already in place.

[KokoKaizer]

Ben Simmons is a special beast on its own. He has to be the Rookie of the year.

But after watching some games from him (BEWARE : I live in FIBA rules), he travels a lot after a defensive rebound !

[TheMartian]

I don't know if it's just me but in my mind Fultz made a pretty good argument for ROY with today's game. Definitely top 3 IMO, edging Tatum by a fingernail. It's still a close race though
1. Simmons
2. Mitchell
3. Fultz
4. Tatum

I want me some of that Killa Mayo you're havin'.

[Litany]

Question for people who have not read all the Fultz articles...why are people so skeptical that he can get back to what made him so appealing as the top pick? Is it just some stupid narrative that isn't fair or is there something to legitimately be concerned about? It was nice to see him out there...I'm sure this has been the longest year for him trying to get back. Cool surprise when i tuned into the games.

I personally think it's narrative. Like I said earlier in the thread these kids are expected to be 150% of the superstars they were
projected to be night in and night out without any drop-offs or they're considered "bust" or "overrated". Everyone is expected to be legends from day one, so when there's a weird scenario like what has happened with Fultz this year he's automatically written off as if his talent somehow disappeared.

I think the kid gradually gets his body in game shape, regains his confidence, takes the off-season to restart and come back next year to show what he's capable of in what should be an ideal situation with the other talent already in place.

This might seem like such a dumb question, but why is it his confidence is so shot? Just because a bad short little string of games to start the season? Or is it confidence in his body? I'm just confused why he's rattled and don't have context for it.

P.S. I do agree on the pressure these guys have on them. Teams draft a player and they want to project them...it's an obsession and fun for a lot of people, even as often as we may be wrong.

[Marcus]

Question for people who have not read all the Fultz articles...why are people so skeptical that he can get back to what made him so appealing as the top pick? Is it just some stupid narrative that isn't fair or is there something to legitimately be concerned about? It was nice to see him out there...I'm sure this has been the longest year for him trying to get back. Cool surprise when i tuned into the games.

I personally think it's narrative. Like I said earlier in the thread these kids are expected to be 150% of the superstars they were
projected to be night in and night out without any drop-offs or they're considered "bust" or "overrated". Everyone is expected to be legends from day one, so when there's a weird scenario like what has happened with Fultz this year he's automatically written off as if his talent somehow disappeared.

I think the kid gradually gets his body in game shape, regains his confidence, takes the off-season to restart and come back next year to show what he's capable of in what should be an ideal situation with the other talent already in place.

This might seem like such a dumb question, but why is it his confidence is so shot? Just because a bad short little string of games to start the season? Or is it confidence in his body? I'm just confused why he's rattled and don't have context for it.

P.S. I do agree on the pressure these guys have on them. Teams draft a player and they want to project them...it's an obsession and fun for a lot of people, even as often as we may be wrong.

that much I don't know. definitely not something I expected from Kelle who I pegged as one of the more mentally tough kids in the class. Maybe the affects of the shoulder injury and how much it bothered his shot to begin with. Could be that with the combination of the stage and wanting to do well. I'd assume it was/is having faith in his body to perform the way he needs it to BUT this is a kid who hasn't really faced adversity in his own performance since he got cut from his high school team. He's essentially been the guy since he had that bounce back year and put himself on the map. So maybe a couple bad games at this level while playing hurt may have bothered his trigger enough to make him gun shy.

I have no problem with projecting a kid. Hell I do that much. Just wish folks weren't so quick to write off a kid because he didn't average 30 for his 1st month in the league. They'll all need time to be what they're expected to be. Immediate gratification is the problem with arm-chair evaluation.

[deflated]

And if you want to build around Mitchell, you will need length and a good defensive point guard to mask his defficiencies too.
Which the Utah Jazz have btw.

Mitchell is a good defender and has great length and size for his position of PG. He doesnt need a good defender next to him, he is a good defender.

I also think that Simmons' game is easy to gameplan for. Start defending him at around 16 feet from the basket. Defend the pass and make him attack the rim. Paddle back and contest at the rim. Force him to to his left hand and let him shoot his running hooks. If it is the case, we will see in the playoffs.

We will see indeed, but if it's that easy, why aren't teams doing it.
Simmons is the type of player that can impact games without scoring. That's to a lot lesser extent the case with Donovan Mitchell, who I really, really like btw.

I disagree, Simmons needs the ball in his hands and relies on shooters hitting their shots to impact the game. Once teams start to defend him like Rondo his impact will fall of the cliff. Team are just scared of his size so they over help on him, but he almost always finishes with his right and is not a great leaper when attacking the rim so a single defender is all you need to make him inefficient. If the defender is bulkier or longer i think he can completely shut down Simmons. Maybe im wrong, we shall see.

But all the stats tell there's a reasonable gap between the two.

Stats lie. They reward impact for simple passes, correlate defense with rebounding, gambling and bad backups and presume efficiency is the same with any load in any role.
Simmons stats are inflated by having the ball so much, being a pass first guy, not having a scoring load, having a rebounding role and playing in front of weak backups.

Mitchell stats are deflated by sharing the ball in a motion offense (witch i think is great), playing as a primary scoring option in a team with bad spacing and playing in mixed lineups in a good defensive system.

Simmons is a good player but too limited. If he gets a jumper and starts finishing with his left hand he will be a much better player than he is now and then we can compare him to Mithcell.

You seem to have an issue with SImmons' game and I'm struggling to understand the basis. In the Denver/Philly com comparison thread that someone recently resurrected you dropped the claim that "Simmons is trash plain and simple" which is a pretty extreme take on one of the consensus two best rookies. All evidence, statistical and otherwise, points to him being extremely productive, unusually so on defence. Can you point to any actual measure or a particular set of games this season to support your theories as 'Stats lie' ain't much of an argument.

[Litany]

I personally think it's narrative. Like I said earlier in the thread these kids are expected to be 150% of the superstars they were
projected to be night in and night out without any drop-offs or they're considered "bust" or "overrated". Everyone is expected to be legends from day one, so when there's a weird scenario like what has happened with Fultz this year he's automatically written off as if his talent somehow disappeared.

I think the kid gradually gets his body in game shape, regains his confidence, takes the off-season to restart and come back next year to show what he's capable of in what should be an ideal situation with the other talent already in place.

This might seem like such a dumb question, but why is it his confidence is so shot? Just because a bad short little string of games to start the season? Or is it confidence in his body? I'm just confused why he's rattled and don't have context for it.

P.S. I do agree on the pressure these guys have on them. Teams draft a player and they want to project them...it's an obsession and fun for a lot of people, even as often as we may be wrong.

that much I don't know. definitely not something I expected from Kelle who I pegged as one of the more mentally tough kids in the class. Maybe the affects of the shoulder injury and how much it bothered his shot to begin with. Could be that with the combination of the stage and wanting to do well. I'd assume it was/is having faith in his body to perform the way he needs it to BUT this is a kid who hasn't really faced adversity in his own performance since he got cut from his high school team. He's essentially been the guy since he had that bounce back year and put himself on the map. So maybe a couple bad games at this level while playing hurt may have bothered his trigger enough to make him gun shy.

I have no problem with projecting a kid. Hell I do that much. Just wish folks weren't so quick to write off a kid because he didn't average 30 for his 1st month in the league. They'll all need time to be what they're expected to be. Immediate gratification is the problem with arm-chair evaluation.

Oh yeah, I totally agree on how quickly people can write someone off as some bust...it's whacky.

As far as Fultz, it would be cool to see him just pull it together. I think it's a good situation he's in...he's got 2 awesome players he can lean on and have carry more of the burden as he grows into himself. Sixers are gonna be so good to watch...like I've said repeatedly...The East really needed them to emerge.

[Catchall]

studs

Watch on YouTube

This is really an extraordinary rookie class.

[phifans]

And if you want to build around Mitchell, you will need length and a good defensive point guard to mask his defficiencies too.
Which the Utah Jazz have btw.

Mitchell is a good defender and has great length and size for his position of PG. He doesnt need a good defender next to him, he is a good defender.

I also think that Simmons' game is easy to gameplan for. Start defending him at around 16 feet from the basket. Defend the pass and make him attack the rim. Paddle back and contest at the rim. Force him to to his left hand and let him shoot his running hooks. If it is the case, we will see in the playoffs.

We will see indeed, but if it's that easy, why aren't teams doing it.
Simmons is the type of player that can impact games without scoring. That's to a lot lesser extent the case with Donovan Mitchell, who I really, really like btw.

I disagree, Simmons needs the ball in his hands and relies on shooters hitting their shots to impact the game. Once teams start to defend him like Rondo his impact will fall of the cliff. Team are just scared of his size so they over help on him, but he almost always finishes with his right and is not a great leaper when attacking the rim so a single defender is all you need to make him inefficient. If the defender is bulkier or longer i think he can completely shut down Simmons. Maybe im wrong, we shall see.

But all the stats tell there's a reasonable gap between the two.

Stats lie. They reward impact for simple passes, correlate defense with rebounding, gambling and bad backups and presume efficiency is the same with any load in any role.
Simmons stats are inflated by having the ball so much, being a pass first guy, not having a scoring load, having a rebounding role and playing in front of weak backups.

Mitchell stats are deflated by sharing the ball in a motion offense (witch i think is great), playing as a primary scoring option in a team with bad spacing and playing in mixed lineups in a good defensive system.

Simmons is a good player but too limited. If he gets a jumper and starts finishing with his left hand he will be a much better player than he is now and then we can compare him to Mithcell.

You simply have no idea why Philly has one of the best starting 5 in this league and how would they look without Ben.

If you do think all Ben has been done on the court is simple passes then I really question your whole opinion on basketball.

[QPR]

"Stats lie when they don't support my opinions"

[RB34]

“Simmons relies on shooters hitting their shots”. Yep, that’s generally how assists and the game of basketball works. He relies on dunkers dunking their dunks too. Luckily for Ben he does so many other things well.

How can you use that as a negative of Simmons when Mitchell is a volume shooter?

[Alatan]

Can you point to any actual measure or a particular set of games this season to support your theories as 'Stats lie' ain't much of an argument.

Last game, for example, he was completely passive, yet his stats look good. 11 assists yet he created maybe 3-4 plays. The rest was passing to shooter without creating much advantage. Teams wrongly fear his drives and pack the pain against him witch gives shooters a slightly better but still contested shots. Once teams realize he is not LeBron and there is no need to pack so many players in the paint that advantage will be gone. Chandler alone has stopped a couple of his drives because he couldnt push him aside due to his bulk. Plumlee also stopped a couple of his drives. There is absolutely no need to have 2 help defenders when Simmons drives. Let him attempt to score every single time and he will tire out so quickly that he will be useless for the rest of the game.

[Alatan]

“Simmons relies on shooters hitting their shots”. Yep, that’s generally how assists and the game of basketball works. He relies on dunkers dunking their dunks too. Luckily for Ben he does so many other things well.

How can you use that as a negative of Simmons when Mitchell is a volume shooter?

Does he create easy looks for them or are they shooting contested 3 pointers half of the time ? Its one thing to give someone an easy look and another to just pass to someone and get credit if they hit a contested shot. Beside the shots he does create currently will be gone when times stop overhelping on his drives.

[Alatan]

You simply have no idea why Philly has one of the best starting 5 in this league and how would they look without Ben.

If you do think all Ben has been done on the court is simple passes then I really question your whole opinion on basketball.

I dont think all of his passes are simple but the wast majority is. He does have a great vision and passing ability BUT since his offensive threat arsenal is so limited he doesnt have the opportunity to use them and mostly does drive and kick type plays. As i stated so many times, i dont even think he is that great of a finisher at the rim for teams to need to help on his drives so the drive and kick play will also fade away.

[CoreyGallagher]

He shoots 69% within 5 feet...

[RB34]

“Simmons relies on shooters hitting their shots”. Yep, that’s generally how assists and the game of basketball works. He relies on dunkers dunking their dunks too. Luckily for Ben he does so many other things well.

How can you use that as a negative of Simmons when Mitchell is a volume shooter?

Does he create easy looks for them or are they shooting contested 3 pointers half of the time ? Its one thing to give someone an easy look and another to just pass to someone and get credit if they hit a contested shot. Beside the shots he does create currently will be gone when times stop overhelping on his drives.

He creates a lot of open looks, do you even watch him?

[eyeatoma]

“Simmons relies on shooters hitting their shots”. Yep, that’s generally how assists and the game of basketball works. He relies on dunkers dunking their dunks too. Luckily for Ben he does so many other things well.

How can you use that as a negative of Simmons when Mitchell is a volume shooter?

Does he create easy looks for them or are they shooting contested 3 pointers half of the time ? Its one thing to give someone an easy look and another to just pass to someone and get credit if they hit a contested shot. Beside the shots he does create currently will be gone when times stop overhelping on his drives.

Do you even watch this guy?

[Tomjas]

And if you want to build around Mitchell, you will need length and a good defensive point guard to mask his defficiencies too.
Which the Utah Jazz have btw.

Mitchell is a good defender and has great length and size for his position of PG. He doesnt need a good defender next to him, he is a good defender.

I also think that Simmons' game is easy to gameplan for. Start defending him at around 16 feet from the basket. Defend the pass and make him attack the rim. Paddle back and contest at the rim. Force him to to his left hand and let him shoot his running hooks. If it is the case, we will see in the playoffs.

We will see indeed, but if it's that easy, why aren't teams doing it.
Simmons is the type of player that can impact games without scoring. That's to a lot lesser extent the case with Donovan Mitchell, who I really, really like btw.

I disagree, Simmons needs the ball in his hands and relies on shooters hitting their shots to impact the game. Once teams start to defend him like Rondo his impact will fall of the cliff. Team are just scared of his size so they over help on him, but he almost always finishes with his right and is not a great leaper when attacking the rim so a single defender is all you need to make him inefficient. If the defender is bulkier or longer i think he can completely shut down Simmons. Maybe im wrong, we shall see.

But all the stats tell there's a reasonable gap between the two.

Stats lie. They reward impact for simple passes, correlate defense with rebounding, gambling and bad backups and presume efficiency is the same with any load in any role.
Simmons stats are inflated by having the ball so much, being a pass first guy, not having a scoring load, having a rebounding role and playing in front of weak backups.

Mitchell stats are deflated by sharing the ball in a motion offense (witch i think is great), playing as a primary scoring option in a team with bad spacing and playing in mixed lineups in a good defensive system.

Simmons is a good player but too limited. If he gets a jumper and starts finishing with his left hand he will be a much better player than he is now and then we can compare him to Mithcell.

Simmons is too fast and too skilled for virtually everyone in the league that is bigger and bulkier than him

If that body type tries to defend him on the perimeter then he either runs around them or passes to Embiid in a mismatch (as his logical opponent is on Ben)

If that body type camps under the rim and gives him a run up then good luck with that as well

BTW, Simmons is left handed

Playoffs will be different so we'll see what happens then

[bebopdeluxe]

And if you want to build around Mitchell, you will need length and a good defensive point guard to mask his defficiencies too.
Which the Utah Jazz have btw.

Mitchell is a good defender and has great length and size for his position of PG. He doesnt need a good defender next to him, he is a good defender.

I also think that Simmons' game is easy to gameplan for. Start defending him at around 16 feet from the basket. Defend the pass and make him attack the rim. Paddle back and contest at the rim. Force him to to his left hand and let him shoot his running hooks. If it is the case, we will see in the playoffs.

We will see indeed, but if it's that easy, why aren't teams doing it.
Simmons is the type of player that can impact games without scoring. That's to a lot lesser extent the case with Donovan Mitchell, who I really, really like btw.

I disagree, Simmons needs the ball in his hands and relies on shooters hitting their shots to impact the game. Once teams start to defend him like Rondo his impact will fall of the cliff. Team are just scared of his size so they over help on him, but he almost always finishes with his right and is not a great leaper when attacking the rim so a single defender is all you need to make him inefficient. If the defender is bulkier or longer i think he can completely shut down Simmons. Maybe im wrong, we shall see.

But all the stats tell there's a reasonable gap between the two.

Stats lie. They reward impact for simple passes, correlate defense with rebounding, gambling and bad backups and presume efficiency is the same with any load in any role.
Simmons stats are inflated by having the ball so much, being a pass first guy, not having a scoring load, having a rebounding role and playing in front of weak backups.

Mitchell stats are deflated by sharing the ball in a motion offense (witch i think is great), playing as a primary scoring option in a team with bad spacing and playing in mixed lineups in a good defensive system.

Simmons is a good player but too limited. If he gets a jumper and starts finishing with his left hand he will be a much better player than he is now and then we can compare him to Mithcell.

So...to sum up:

1) Stats lie; and
2) Mitchell is better than Simmons because...because...because I said so.

Ladies and gentleman - welcome to the United States of America in 2018. Where stats lie, alternative facts rule, and if you say something long enough and loud enough, the value of fact-based arguments are drowned out.

And it is not just that this post is nothing but 100% subjective opinion, what is REALLY special is the poster actually comes out and says, in essence, “yeah...the statitistics say X, but I say that the statistics are not factual. They lie. So, I will simply choose to not recognize these statistics as having any value, because what I subjectively believe is the truth is all that matters.”

Awesome.