2024 NBA FINALS: #1 Boston Celtics vs #5 Dallas Mavericks (BOS leads 3-0)

[LaLover11]

It's clear Mavs have no Backcourt Defenders
They need to trade THJ/Exum/Powell for a player like Caruso/Vando/ Patrick Beverley type players somehow

*The best offensive backcourt of all time is also a really bad defensive backcourt.

They need dogs and this would complete this Offensive Happy team in contention

[SweaterBae]

Also, I can say anecdotally from doing the research for those clips that opponents do seem to be having a tougher time scoring on Luka than other Mavs, so the BBREF individual DRTG makes sense to me.

Luka is a big guy. It's easier to shoot over shorter guys and it's easier to muscle smaller guys.

We all know that cherry picking macro stats isn't a particularly valid way to judge a performance. This is a glorified version of taking plus minus from one game and pretending it proves something without a doubt. They are macro stats for a reason.

[SpreeS]

Just reposting this because I don't recall where I put it before.

On Court Team DRTG through G2. Luka best among the starters.

This goes along with the "Team DRTG worst with Luka Off Court" and "Luka best BBREF individual DRTG" metrics, as well as the 16 defensive clips I posted in the other thread.


relax

Jordan f.... Poole had better drtg than Green and Wiggs in Finals 2022

[BigGargamel]

Goddang they are stretching these playoffs out. Seems like the conference finals series ended two weeks ago and we've only had 2 Finals games.

[Mavrelous]

Goddang they are stretching these playoffs out. Seems like the conference finals series ended two weeks ago and we've only had 2 Finals games.

It's the exact same setup as last year, DEN had 9 days rest between LAL and MIA

[LaLover11]

If Kyrie doesn't score 35 Mavs lose

[iggymcfrack]

False.



There's plenty more data and highlights to back me up.

I've gone over this elsewhere so no need to repeat it here.

Using your screenshot and your logic, what this graphic also shows is that Kyrie has been great on offense this series, because the team's offensive rating with him off the court is the lowest of anyone. Derp.

These are different stats. The DRtg on top just represents how many points the Celtics' offense scores per 100 possessions with the given player on the court. The second one is some nonsense that heavily weights blocks and steals that people haven't taken seriously for over a decade.

[iggymcfrack]

I have a thread with 16 clips of Luka playing good defense in Games 1 and 2:

viewtopic.php?t=2385262#p113638696

We're past the silliness.

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=nTTEj4pYTl_o_im2gtZyQg

Doesn't matter. I have 16 misses/steals/etc against Luka from the first two games. And I could get more, I'm sure.

That's why you have to do the research and look at the total picture to understand what is actually taking place. That's what I did.

Clips and eye test are just one piece of the puzzle.

One of the Thinking Basketball guys on their most recent podcast (can't remember which one) said that of all the games he'd ever tracked, he'd never seen a player make as many defensive mistakes in a single game as Luka did in Game 2. He was absolutely horrendous defensively. There's no reason to try to argue about it. The Celtics are doing a great job attacking him and making him work bringing the ball up the floor so it's understandable that he'd perform poorly, but acting like he's anything other than the worst defensive player on the floor is just denying reality.

[Bob8]

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=nTTEj4pYTl_o_im2gtZyQg

Doesn't matter. I have 16 misses/steals/etc against Luka from the first two games. And I could get more, I'm sure.

That's why you have to do the research and look at the total picture to understand what is actually taking place. That's what I did.

Clips and eye test are just one piece of the puzzle.

One of the Thinking Basketball guys on their most recent podcast (can't remember which one) said that of all the games he'd ever tracked, he'd never seen a player make as many defensive mistakes in a single game as Luka did in Game 2. He was absolutely horrendous defensively. There's no reason to try to argue about it. The Celtics are doing a great job attacking him and making him work bringing the ball up the floor so it's understandable that he'd perform poorly, but acting like he's anything other than the worst defensive player on the floor is just denying reality.

He might play bad D, but in that case we should say that Celtics are playing bad offense too, because they can't capitalise on Luka's bad D. Bottom line is, Mavs are defending good enough in this series to win games, unfortunate they're not playing at least passable offense. Mavs won't win any games, no matter how good D they play, if they can't score 100+ points.

Defensive rebounds and steals are part of D too, so it's kinda difficult to say, he's Mavs worst defender, he still brings something to the table. Or maybe being blown by is the only thing that matters?

[Handlez]

Does Boston even need KP?

I think they could lose two starters and still have a talent advantage.

[iggymcfrack]

Doesn't matter. I have 16 misses/steals/etc against Luka from the first two games. And I could get more, I'm sure.

That's why you have to do the research and look at the total picture to understand what is actually taking place. That's what I did.

Clips and eye test are just one piece of the puzzle.

One of the Thinking Basketball guys on their most recent podcast (can't remember which one) said that of all the games he'd ever tracked, he'd never seen a player make as many defensive mistakes in a single game as Luka did in Game 2. He was absolutely horrendous defensively. There's no reason to try to argue about it. The Celtics are doing a great job attacking him and making him work bringing the ball up the floor so it's understandable that he'd perform poorly, but acting like he's anything other than the worst defensive player on the floor is just denying reality.

He might play bad D, but in that case we should say that Celtics are playing bad offense too, because they can't capitalise on Luka's bad D. Bottom line is, Mavs are defending good enough in this series to win games, unfortunate they're not playing at least passable offense. Mavs won't win any games, no matter how good D they play, if they can't score 100+ points.

Defensive rebounds and steals are part of D too, so it's kinda difficult to say, he's Mavs worst defender, he still brings something to the table. Or maybe being blown by is the only thing that matters?

Yes, the Celtics had one of their worst shooting games of the year missing tons of wide open corner 3s with very good shooters. The Mavs were very lucky to only lose by 7. Typically when a team gives the Celtics looks that good, they’ll score 120 points or more.

I didn’t say that Luka was the Mavs worst defender generally, just that he got absolutely destroyed in Game 2, having one of the worst defensive games in NBA history. He was exploited time and again, over and over.

[iggymcfrack]

Does Boston even need KP?

I think they could lose two starters and still have a talent advantage.

It depends. To win Game 3? Yeah they probably do. Teams playing at home down 0-2 tend to greatly outperform their talent as it’s near impossible for the other team to match their level of urgency. To win the series? Nah. As long as the rest of the team stays healthy, Boston clearly has a talent edge even without KP in the lineup.

[Bob8]

One of the Thinking Basketball guys on their most recent podcast (can't remember which one) said that of all the games he'd ever tracked, he'd never seen a player make as many defensive mistakes in a single game as Luka did in Game 2. He was absolutely horrendous defensively. There's no reason to try to argue about it. The Celtics are doing a great job attacking him and making him work bringing the ball up the floor so it's understandable that he'd perform poorly, but acting like he's anything other than the worst defensive player on the floor is just denying reality.

He might play bad D, but in that case we should say that Celtics are playing bad offense too, because they can't capitalise on Luka's bad D. Bottom line is, Mavs are defending good enough in this series to win games, unfortunate they're not playing at least passable offense. Mavs won't win any games, no matter how good D they play, if they can't score 100+ points.

Defensive rebounds and steals are part of D too, so it's kinda difficult to say, he's Mavs worst defender, he still brings something to the table. Or maybe being blown by is the only thing that matters?

Yes, the Celtics had one of their worst shooting games of the year missing tons of wide open corner 3s with very good shooters. The Mavs were very lucky to only lose by 7. Typically when a team gives the Celtics looks that good, they’ll score 120 points or more.

I didn’t say that Luka was the Mavs worst defender generally, just that he got absolutely destroyed in Game 2, having one of the worst defensive games in NBA history. He was exploited time and again, over and over.

He was exploited, but Celtics couldn't capitalise because they were unlucky and Tatum, who was attacking him mostly, had disastrous shooting night? I would imagine that worse defensive performance in history would mean, Celtics players scored a lot on him, not they could have potentially scored a lot, but they didn't.

If I understand you right, when Kyrie and Mavs role players are shooting 11% on open 3s, making just 2 of them, is great D by Celtics. When Celtics score 25% for 3, 1 from half court, it's bad Mavs D and just bad Celtics luck?

In which category goes 11 defensive rebounds and 4 steals? Offense?

[rapstarter]

Basketball-reference's defensive rating is not the same as the NBA

I know, and I know you're wrong as regards Luka. I did the research myself.

And what's your research?

Bball ref's defensive rating is unreliable and pretty much unusable due to its lack of complexity and over-reliance on boxscore stats, yet you are using it.

It's an outdated metric that doesn't come close to capturing defensive impact.

NBA.com's def rtg is pretty much the same for Luka through the first two games.

[SIRMER]

Does Boston even need KP?

I think they could lose two starters and still have a talent advantage.

I Think in Lowe podcast they said Celtics have 102 offrtg and 120 defrtg without KP on the floor and 126 offrtg and 96 defrtg with him on. I think he is quite important piece in the puzzle.

[LaLover11]

If Porz doesn't play

Mavs 104 - 101

[Celts17Pride]

If Kyrie doesn't score 35 Mavs lose

You went from 45 last game to now asking for 35. Need to set the bar to something reasonable like 20.

[Chanel Bomber]

I know, and I know you're wrong as regards Luka. I did the research myself.

And what's your research?

Bball ref's defensive rating is unreliable and pretty much unusable due to its lack of complexity and over-reliance on boxscore stats, yet you are using it.

It's an outdated metric that doesn't come close to capturing defensive impact.

NBA.com's def rtg is pretty much the same for Luka through the first two games.

I missed game 1, which is why I only focus on game 2.

As you know, NBA's defensive rating is a lineup stat so it can hardly be used at face value for assessing individual performance.

What stands out is how porous Dallas's defense has been with Kyrie and Gafford on the court. I think the data's too extreme there not to be meaningful.

I don't think this necessarily means Luka was good on defense in game 2, for instance. I thought he was really bad against the drive in particular.

I have lower expectations for Kyrie on both ends and I don't like to talk about him to begin with, but it would also be fair to point out how bad he has been on defense. Likely worse than Luka, whose size at least shrinks the passing lanes.

PS: Also defensive rating captures the outcome but not necessarily the process. Dallas's defensive process (leaving 40% wide-open shooters wide open from 3 due to the defense collapsing off the drive) was bad but it doesn't look as bad statistically because Boston shot well below their average on high-percentage shots. Hence Luka's defensive rating doesn't tell the story of how porous the defense was when he was on the court.

[ITYSL]

Dang, Luka's offensive rating is the second lowest of all Mavs starters. I guess he's being carried on offense. Thanks for your insights.

You're a joke. No more attention.

Check the mirror kid. I'm using your screenshot and your logic. Lol

[ITYSL]

He might play bad D, but in that case we should say that Celtics are playing bad offense too, because they can't capitalise on Luka's bad D.

Yeah, the Celtics are shooting way below their averages from 3:
- 38.8% from three during the regular season, 32.1% in the Finals
- 38.8% in open 3s during the regular season, 33.3% in the Finals
- 41.6% on wide open 3s during the regular season, 36.1% in the Finals

They're getting a lot of open looks from 3 due to drive and kicks from blowing past Luka and then passing out when the defense collapses in the paint. They're just not making them.