WOJ: Spurs draft Rob Dillingham 8th, then trade him to the TWolves for an unprotected 2031 first

[KGdaBom]

i don't think there has ever been a superstar whose front office seeded their career with so many future first round picks.

imagine lebron, luka, giannis or jokic consistently had EXTRA unprotected picks in their first 7 years in the league. Hell, even Tim.

Either they have laid the groundwork to keep having high picks into the future or they are acquiring an asset and cap room to be utilized in a trade. I like it, we don't need a 164 lb point guard getting hunted and destroyed.

I feel bad for Rob being traded like that, he was happy to be with us. I thought the Spurs handled that poorly.

He was happy going to the Spurs. He's ecstatic about going to the Wolves.

[DwayneSchintzus]

i hope he has a great career! i always cheer for you guys.

i think Pop has a dif vision for the team around Wemby. And i trust Pop.

[KGdaBom]

Awful trade. One the 2031 pick is likely going to be worse off and when I say likely none of us know how good the worlves will be but but the 8th overall pick is already in the top 25 percentile in picks.

Two, they have to wait seven years for the pick to actualize that is wasted time because Rob or whomever they would have taken will already have had their career mapped out by this point.

For me this is a god awful trade even if in some way it works out because it is just a bad bet at this point.

Great take. Worst trade I've ever seen in over 50 years.

[og15]

that 2031 pick will likely be top 5 as KAT, Gobert and Edwards will be long gone and they'll revert to being an NBA doormat organization. It also gives them a valuable asset to use in trades. Once again, Spurs playing Chess. Short-term it's excellent for the Wolves as it gives them a dynamic scorer to take the load off Edwards. Spurs have multiple picks in the 2nd round and this is a very deep draft of role players so they'll get contributors.

I like it for the Spurs assuming they didn’t like anyone at #8. You’re correct in ‘31 Gobert will be gone and KAT will either be gone or making like $90m/yr LOL. The Wolves have already traded away their future and are very likely to be bad in 6-7 years.

The Spurs have loads of future picks and they can do more in FA this summer now. When you’re setting up to a contender you’ll need the flexibility of bringing in guys on-cost controlled rookie contracts or ability to trade picks to acquire elite role players like Caruso as an example.

Spurs playing the long game here. They already have loads of youth plus #4 this year.

I've been following the NBA for over 50 years and the Spurs just made the worst trade I have ever seen. Pick 8 now for a random swap 6 years from now and a random pick 7 years from now with the Wolves who are crazy young and talented and likely to be picking in the 20s or 30s in those years.

There have definitely been much worse trades than this.

[nikster]

I like it for the Spurs assuming they didn’t like anyone at #8. You’re correct in ‘31 Gobert will be gone and KAT will either be gone or making like $90m/yr LOL. The Wolves have already traded away their future and are very likely to be bad in 6-7 years.

The Spurs have loads of future picks and they can do more in FA this summer now. When you’re setting up to a contender you’ll need the flexibility of bringing in guys on-cost controlled rookie contracts or ability to trade picks to acquire elite role players like Caruso as an example.

Spurs playing the long game here. They already have loads of youth plus #4 this year.

I've been following the NBA for over 50 years and the Spurs just made the worst trade I have ever seen. Pick 8 now for a random swap 6 years from now and a random pick 7 years from now with the Wolves who are crazy young and talented and likely to be picking in the 20s or 30s in those years.

There have definitely been much worse trades than this.

And we haven't even seen the results of this trade. Maybe if the #8 pick turns out great we can look at it poorly, but I doubt it

[KGdaBom]

I like it for the Spurs assuming they didn’t like anyone at #8. You’re correct in ‘31 Gobert will be gone and KAT will either be gone or making like $90m/yr LOL. The Wolves have already traded away their future and are very likely to be bad in 6-7 years.

The Spurs have loads of future picks and they can do more in FA this summer now. When you’re setting up to a contender you’ll need the flexibility of bringing in guys on-cost controlled rookie contracts or ability to trade picks to acquire elite role players like Caruso as an example.

Spurs playing the long game here. They already have loads of youth plus #4 this year.

I've been following the NBA for over 50 years and the Spurs just made the worst trade I have ever seen. Pick 8 now for a random swap 6 years from now and a random pick 7 years from now with the Wolves who are crazy young and talented and likely to be picking in the 20s or 30s in those years.

There have definitely been much worse trades than this.

There are trades that have worked out worse most likely, but at the time the trade was made this is with no question the worst I've ever seen.

[JimmyPlopper]

Current CBA expires in the '29-'30 season so the picks will be made after the next CBA has been agreed to. Would be interesting if something happens to significantly alter the value of a draft pick in any way by that time.

[floppymoose]

I love this trade for the Spurs.

[KGdaBom]

I've been following the NBA for over 50 years and the Spurs just made the worst trade I have ever seen. Pick 8 now for a random swap 6 years from now and a random pick 7 years from now with the Wolves who are crazy young and talented and likely to be picking in the 20s or 30s in those years.

There have definitely been much worse trades than this.

And we haven't even seen the results of this trade. Maybe if the #8 pick turns out great we can look at it poorly, but I doubt it

Right we haven't seen the results yet. I'm just basing it on what was given and what was received at the time the trade was made. A random swap 6 years from now and a random pick 7 years from now for #8 THIS YEAR. Yeah I know it was supposedly a weak draft. I have seen Dillingham play. He wasn't a weak pick.

[KGdaBom]

Current CBA expires in the '29-'30 season so the picks will be made after the next CBA has been agreed to. Would be interesting if something happens to significantly alter the value of a draft pick in any way by that time.

Unlikely any change would happen to the value of draft picks.

[KGdaBom]

It's a common trade you see in a dynasty fantasy basketball or football league. Wemby is 20 years old. Let's not rush things

That's your defense? "Yo guys, this is totally normal in pretend sports GMing, so why wouldn't this be cool for the real thing?" Uh... any number of reasons? If you're a fantasy GM you know you will keep your team as long as you want it. That's not true for GM jobs. There's a fanastic chance that the guy who made the trade today won't be in charge of the Spurs by 2031. Since fantasy is just make believe, the players on your team have no idea you're giving up on the next few seasons so they don't care. In real life, Wemby knows the Spurs aren't helping him right away and will care. In fantasy you don't have to sell tickets or answer to fans. In real life you do.

This is the argument that I really don't understand.

If I'm a San Antonio Spurs fan, why would I be upset that my GM put the TEAM before his own personal job security and made the smart move?

Because it was a STOOPID MOVE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[KGdaBom]

But they see someone they like in the 2031 draft?

I think the reason why they made this trade is so that in 2030 and 2031 during the years where Wemby will be entering his prime, the Spurs will theoretically be really good, and they'll be capped out and unable to add anyone via trade with the second apron rules or in free agency, they will still be able to supplement the roster with these two TWolves picks. Making the bet that the TWolves will have fallen out of contention at that point and these will be high value draft picks.

IF the Spurs are able to turn into a contender without the help of the 8th selection in the draft this year, and

IF the Wolves fall off, or become a mediocre team 6 years from now

I think it's a really smart move. Of course those are two big ifs so it's not without risk, but the logic behind it is sound.

I think it's also a more flexible trade asset to use for a potential trade for a star or supporting player

Nobody but Wright (Wrong) is interested in a pick and a swap 6-7 years from now.

[KGdaBom]

Yeah $8 mill in extra cap space plus an extra pick and a swap to make moves will help them win now a lot more than a rookie Dillingham.
People are being prisoners of the moment here. Dillingham is very likely a huge negative this season. He's a 1-and-done, one-way player that weighs 160 pounds.
I think the move makes sense for Minnesota long term too, don't get me wrong, but I don't understand why people think an offense-only guard who is a disaster on defense will make Wemby happy
Pretty sure Wemby AND the Spurs want Wemby to get lots of reps w the ball in his hands, rather than focusing his efforts on defense so some 6' 1" rookie chucker can get up a bunch of shots.
Tbh Dillingham would have only made sense for the Spurs as a long-term project and tank commander. Anyone who thinks he's a win-now player is out of their depth here imo.

First of all, it's not an extra pick, it's the same number of picks, they are just getting it 7 years from now. Secondly, how does a future pick help winning now more than a rookie? What about next year when Dillingham is a second year player? Or the year after? At what point does Dillingham start outperforming a future draft pick in your mind? Cap space.... maybe. They could convert that to something that helps them sooner. Or they could not spend it now and save it for a future off season. Again, how would that unspent salary help winning more than Dillingham? Do you start to see the illogic of your statement?

What if the Spurs don’t think Dillingham is good? If the Spurs thought Dillingham was going to be some surefire starter down the road they probably don’t trade him. If they think he’s Lou Williams 2.0 then they can probably acquire that type of player for cheaper than what they gave up. Maybe they don’t like him at all. The Spurs didn’t draft Dillingham, they drafted him for the Wolves so we don’t really know what the Spurs think of Dillingham but it obviously isn’t a high opinion.

The Spurs could have drafted anybody available at pick 8. They didn't have to pick Dillingham.

[KGdaBom]

Too much team control now a days then. 8 years?! Are you sure?

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/player/_/id/82196/victor-wembanyama

4 year rookie contract, plus 5 year supermax rookie extension.

Here is Scottie Barnes contract as an example.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/player/_/id/74111/scottie-barnes

He'd have to really hate money to turn that down. That extension is going to look ridiculous in a few years once the new TV deal has been fully accounted for.

When these picks convey is right around the time the Spurs may face pressure to "build a winner" around Wemby (if they haven't already done so). As such, they can use the MIN picks to make those moves if faced with that dilemma. Or they can use those picks to improve the team in general.

The biggest thing people are missing: the 8th pick this year is not a normal 8th pick. I have heard reports that scouts consider the #1 this year to be the equivalent of the #6 in most normal drafts. If we extrapolate that for #8 then that means having the 8th pick this year is like having the 14th pick in a normal year. Here's the math on that: 50% of the time the 14th pick is going to be an 8th man or worse. There is a 30% chance that guy is out of the league before Wemby is done his 2nd contract. The average outcome is probably around a Cam Payne level player. Sure it's a risk, but the Spurs are betting they can do better than that in the long run.

There will be good players from this draft. I believe Connelly found a good one at #8 in Dillingham. Wright (Wrong) isn't talented enough to do that.

[KGdaBom]

I love it for MIN. They desperately needed another shot creator / scorer in the backcourt. I wouldn't be surprised if he's ROY as the 6th man avg 15 PPG for MIN

He just might have a shot at ROY.

[G R E Y]

There is a lot of if's on that plan. One would think San Antonio would be serious about building a contender with Wembanyama sooner than later, and this trade does not fit the "sooner" plan at all. Keeping Wemby happy should be the #1 priority, and I don't see how that is achieved by trading away lottery picks when the roster is full of holes and the Spurs could use any help?

Is this draft and this evening the lone way and time limit in which to do that? It's like people can't think beyond the moment of the reaction of a trade or consider that extra cap space and picks are actually good trade assets for other moves that... improve the roster holes.

Nobody cares about a swap and a pick 6 and 7 years from now. If the Spurs hold those assets 5 years they MAY have some value, but odds are the Wolves will be very good in 2030-31.

Except for the teams that happen to trade for them before then. Again, asset management isn't just for THIS lone transaction. How is that not a consideration? Getting a ton of assets to then flip for a player we are targeting IS in fact, good asset management, and roster construction. How did the Wolves acquire Gobert?

[ConSarnit]

Yup. A gaggle of Captain Literals in here with zero imagination. It’s going to eventually be part of a package for a star.

Yeah. And the further an unprotected pick is down the road the more value it usually holds due to its uncertain nature. Picks also lose a lot of value after they are made so this pick will retain the “still on the lot” value. There are a variety of ways the Spurs can use this pick to improve their team. The Spurs actually making the pick is probably the least likely outcome.

5 years from now IF the Spurs still control the swap and the pick they will have some value. They have virtually no value now because they can't be used for so long and almost nobody will be interested in trading for them.

For sure it’s a gamble by the Spurs but they’ve seemingly timed this to mitigate some threat of Wemby leaving. For all intents and purposes they’ve got 6 years before the “Victor might want out” narrative forms if they haven’t built a contender by then. If they’re facing that threat then they can use these assets to improve their team right around the time Wemby’s max contract is coming to an end in a similar way that the Bucks have acquired Jrue and Dame to get Giannis to extend. Time will tell whether they made a mistake on trading Dillingham (assuming that’s who they would have taken). If he’s a legit starter then they screwed up. If he’s in that 6th man microwave ilk of players then they probably played it correctly imo as those types of players aren’t overly difficult to acquire. The Spurs must not have evaluated Dillingham very highly if they were willing to make this trade.

[KGdaBom]

Is this draft and this evening the lone way and time limit in which to do that? It's like people can't think beyond the moment of the reaction of a trade or consider that extra cap space and picks are actually good trade assets for other moves that... improve the roster holes.

Nobody cares about a swap and a pick 6 and 7 years from now. If the Spurs hold those assets 5 years they MAY have some value, but odds are the Wolves will be very good in 2030-31.

Except for the teams that happen to trade for the before then. Again, asset management isn't just for THIS lone transaction. How is that not a consideration? Getting a ton of assets to then flip for a player we are targeting US in fact, good asset management, and roster construction. How did the Wolves acquire Gobert?

Normally teams only trade for picks far away when they are doing a Gobert like trade where they get a first every other year. The swap being 6 years away and the pick being 7 years away is what makes me feel it's idiotic. It's the first trade of it's kind. I personally don't give a sheet about picks/swaps that far out.

[G R E Y]

First of all, it's not an extra pick, it's the same number of picks, they are just getting it 7 years from now. Secondly, how does a future pick help winning now more than a rookie? What about next year when Dillingham is a second year player? Or the year after? At what point does Dillingham start outperforming a future draft pick in your mind? Cap space.... maybe. They could convert that to something that helps them sooner. Or they could not spend it now and save it for a future off season. Again, how would that unspent salary help winning more than Dillingham? Do you start to see the illogic of your statement?

What if the Spurs don’t think Dillingham is good? If the Spurs thought Dillingham was going to be some surefire starter down the road they probably don’t trade him. If they think he’s Lou Williams 2.0 then they can probably acquire that type of player for cheaper than what they gave up. Maybe they don’t like him at all. The Spurs didn’t draft Dillingham, they drafted him for the Wolves so we don’t really know what the Spurs think of Dillingham but it obviously isn’t a high opinion.

The Spurs could have drafted anybody available at pick 8. They didn't have to pick Dillingham.

Spurs didn't. WOLVES picked it after trading for pick 8. Spurs just did what Wolves directed them to with their pick.

[Sixers in 4]

I love this trade for the Spurs.

Lets just do the math here. There are 30 teams. Dillingham was selected 8. Which means 30-8 is 22 which means there are 22 possibilities versus 8 where the Spurs end up with a worse selection. That means the Spurs have a 73.3 percent chance of ending up with a worse draft spot, but wait it gets even worse it's 7 years for it convey.

None of us know what the future holds but teams normally have to pay a premium to win now. Somehow the Wolves got the more recent asset at a significant discount based on the future flat odds of the pick. It's just an awful trade and there is no defense for it.

Period