2024-25 NBA Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt. 3)

[TheZachAttack]

Terrance Shannon Jr has finally gotten a chance to get a big role in the Wolves rotation and he's killing it. In the last 6 games, he's averaging 13.5-5.5-2.5 in 24 minutes shooting 65% from 2, 23% from 3 (bad), and 100% from the FT line.

Shannon's physicality and athleticism shines every time he's on the floor. He's a massive threat in transition and attacks rotating defenses with a level of ferociousness I'm not really sure I've ever seen. He's got a great first step, can explode above the rim, and great touch around the rim.

Very fun player.

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Not to mention he has the GTA unlimited ammo cheat code tattooed to his shooting forearm. He's a pretty unique player, but I think he can be a major threat offensively. Honestly, in some ways he plays a lot like Amen Thompson but a wing version of him with a less handle/passing ability although not bad. Same level of down hill aggressiveness, transition play, and touch on little floater shots and other weird angle shots in the short midrange area. Another example in my opinion of who he plays like is Zion Williamson.

[TheZachAttack]

Terrance Shannon Jr has finally gotten a chance to get a big role in the Wolves rotation and he's killing it. In the last 6 games, he's averaging 13.5-5.5-2.5 in 24 minutes shooting 65% from 2, 23% from 3 (bad), and 100% from the FT line.

Shannon's physicality and athleticism shines every time he's on the floor. He's a massive threat in transition and attacks rotating defenses with a level of ferociousness I'm not really sure I've ever seen. He's got a great first step, can explode above the rim, and great touch around the rim.

Very fun player.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Not to mention he has the GTA unlimited ammo cheat code tattooed to his shooting forearm. He's a pretty unique player, but I think he can be a major threat offensively. Honestly, in some ways he plays a lot like Amen Thompson but a wing version of him with a less handle/passing ability although not bad. Same level of down hill aggressiveness, transition play, and touch on little floater shots and other weird angle shots in the short midrange area. Another example in my opinion of who he plays like is Zion Williamson.

Shannon with another 17 point, 4 rebound, 5 assist night in about 28 minutes. He missed layups on some of his drives and Kessler was pretty good at protecting the rim, but pretty interestingly he went 3-5 from 3 including a jab step step back 3. If Shannon is even just a streaky 3 point shooter who can get hot and makes people respect his shot that’s huge.

It feels like he may be able to be a similar level of player to what Wiggins was in GS who averages 15-20 points per 36, solid rebounding, and secondary creation/playmaking.

[shi-woo]

Mentioned Isaiah Collier a while back and the dude is still putting up numbers. Honestly he would be a lock for this award just by his stats alone if he played more to start the year. It's actually pretty impressive what he's doing, even if it is on a bad team.

He averaged 12/10/4 on 45% shooting in 13 games in February, and 9/8/4 in January...He's been a walking dbl-dbl since becoming a starter for 26 games.

Dude is getting his numbers, and doing it on a team that is still featuring George, Sexton, and Clarkson as dudes that need the ball in their hands.

He should honestly be getting more love at this point, given all rookies are terrible, and this award usually goes to counting stats.

[ItsDanger]

Always liked TSJ. Nice to finally see him get minutes. Should make decisions for Minnesota next year easier. Illinois screwed him up a bit making him a PG in his first year there. Not many power/speed combos in this mold, coach needs to maximize it better.

[HMFFL]

Bub Carrington is leading all rookies in minutes played with 1697. The second most minutes played is Yves Missi with 1538.

The Wizard are doing things right to tank by playing Bub so much.

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[cupcakesnake]

He's 39th percentile in rim differential, 11th percentile in defensive shot quality influence, he offers 0 playmaking or passing skill, he turns the ball over too much for his usage, and can't score except for lobs and putbacks. He will get passed the ball on the block, take 1 dribble and pass it back out.

The only thing you can hide behind is his low minutes and low offensive involvement. You never considered that maybe there's a reason for that?

Where are you getting these numbers?
craftednba has his rim differential at -3.9% (71st percentile), while nbarapm has it at -3.4% (similar percentile)
His overall fg% differential is in the 56% percentile via nbarapm, while thinking basketball has it in the 67th percentile. I'm unfamiliar (but curious) with defensive shot quality influence, could you point me to where you find that?

I get that you're pretty committed to your take about Edey being bad, and are already kind of fighting with people about this, so I don't want to push too hard on it.

I'm still Edey-curious. His role in the long term is as a pick & roll finisher and offensive rebounder. I think Edey-optimists pictured him running pick & roll with Ja Morant, but then Taylor Jenkins came in with a strange and innovative offense that was less about screening. In this offense, Edey isn't featured a ton, but I don't think that's an indication of his long term viability in the league. His defense has been way better than everyone worried about. He still has defensive weaknesses, but they're just not as pronounced as anyone who worried he was a total stiff thought they would be.

He's low minute because Memphis is a contender, and Edey is a rookie with vets they like to play. JJJ's driving game has been a massive part of Memphis' offense, so they like to play him at center half the time to force tough adjustments from their opponent. Aladama is kind of the opposite of Edey (a playmaker who can shoot a bit). Memphis hasn't been shy about playing him with either of those guys though, though it's understandable why they like JJJ at the 5 next to Aldama most for this style of offense. Edey isn't a passer or a shooter, so he's not the dream fit here.

There's nothing substantial to the idea that Edey is only thriving statistically due to playing on a good team with the starters. Edey+bench lineups have been extremely solid, and catch-all metrics that try to isolate for teammate quality still like Edey too. I'm fine with you not believing those numbers on just a one year sample, but I don't think it's the time for strong conviction on this subject in either direction.

All-in-all, Edey has had a solid, yet unspectacular rookie season. This career could still go north or south. He's already cleared the biggest concerns about his defense, but he hasn't quite delivered on the promise of his offense either.

From the site you quoted



People need to acknowledge why certain metrics are higher for certain types of players.

Advanced metrics are going to favor the lower volume high efficiency guys (bigs), on good teams, so him being slightly positive doesn't mean anything.

I just don't accept the idea that his defense has somehow been OK. It has been bad, if you want to break down film I'm happy to do so. He doesn't play because he can't guard anyone. Opposing teams just put him in PnR every other possession. The only thing he can do is play deep drop because he can't move with anyone faster than a plodding big.

Any time there's a switch, doesn't matter who it is they take Edey off the dribble right away.

He will be unplayable in the playoffs and just go back and look he very rarely plays in close games. He's 11th on the grizzlies in total clutch minutes played this season and it's not because the grizzlies have a bunch of vets. It's because teams just expose him defensively late in games.

Grizzlies are 3-9 in games where Edey has gotten clutch minutes, and in those 14 total minutes he has played they are -21.

Is Zach Edey any better than Luke Kornet? He's a better offensive rebounder marginally, and there's really no other distinguishing differences between the players... other than Edey is a little bigger and they're forcing him minutes early in games because they just over drafted him.

I said before the draft and I still maintain that Edey is a 2nd round player. His absolute ceiling is a guy who can get some spot minutes in good matchups

I'm taking your analysis seriously, and tuned into New York vs. Memphis last night with your criticism in mind. I'm sorry but I just disagree pretty strong with how you talk about Edey's defense. He's come a long way since his season in college, specifically in terms of being able to flip his hips and change directions. I remember him getting turned into a statue many time at Purdue, but I don't see that anymore in his NBA games. New York drew some switches and isolations against him in the first quarter, and he did absolutely fine staying in front of Brunson and Josh Hart. Is he a great defender? No. Just because he's mobile for his size, doesn't mean he's mobile. He's going to be stuck in drop and give up 3-pointers more often than you like.

I'm not sure I get the Kornet argument. Kornet is really really good in his role. You can't really ask much for from Luke Kornet in his 17mpg. Kornet is also a 30-year-old role player that took 6-7 years to figure it out and fine the right role on the right team. Comparing a 20mpg rookie (also in a limited role) to Kornet isn't the diss you think it is. The argument should be centered around what we think Edey can become in an expanded role down the line.

Rookie bigs usually suck. Especially on defense. On offense, Memphis isn't going to build around Edey anytime soon as far as we know. I'm not sure there's much to complain about the job he's doing this year, unless you're arguing with people who expected huge immediate production? A 7'4" rookie center not being the best crunch time option on a contender also just doesn't feel something to complain about. In terms of playoffs, I think Edey will be used more as a lineup option for Memphis. Yes he's a starter right now, but like you've already said, he's not quite central to what Memphis does.

Maybe in a couple years, if Edey doesn't pan out, you can claim victory for your draft analysis of him. Right now, I read your Edey stuff and it feels like an overreaction to an interesting rookie having a pretty solid season. Some people maybe overestimated him, but at least as many thought he would be a massive bust. Edey the capable role-playing rookie seems like nothing to complain about.

[Castle Black]

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[cupcakesnake]

Nice little ROY battle tonight.
- Edey goes 7-7 and finishes with 17 points, 9 boards (6 offensive), and 3 blocks.
- Castle gets 24 points, 7 assists, a steal and the Spurs get the win in a tight game.
Both were on the floor in crunch time and making plays.

[G R E Y]

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[ItsDanger]

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[The Moose]

I like Edey but if I had to guess he’s probably going to have a career similar to Steven Adams in terms of on court production and impact, although if he keeps developing his 3 he might be able to be similar to Brook Lopez. So a solid starter who has limitations that necessitate him not being played in certain moments. So for a guy like that to have an obsessed hater is just funny af to me because imagine someone spending their obsessively hating on Ivica Zubac.

I literally had Edey ranked #1 on my expected career VORP based board for the '24 class and my comp was jumbo Zubac and a tier 3 prospect. Which is funny because I assume I'm one of the people on the draft board that triggered a lot of the Edey detractors when they see Edey ranked so high. But its just a mixture of Edey having a very high floor and the quality of the draft class overall.

It's also funny because thats exactly where he is ranked in the class by VORP at this point, and while I doubt he stays there over the next few years, I'd be very surprised if he falls out of the top 9.

I don't understand the logic I've seen from a few people that still insist Edey wasn't worth drafting in the first round. Most draft classes have less than 20 players that stick in the nba, one would essentially have to believe that Edey will wash out of the league after his rookie contract to justify that position.
Just as a reference point from 1988-2018 only 2 drafts have had more >25 players with >1 VORP, while Edey will likely approach >1 VORP in his rookie season.

[The Moose]

Also, as far was ROTY goes, I'm not even sure where I would lean for the winner at this point.

Most likely Wells

[RRR3]

I like Edey but if I had to guess he’s probably going to have a career similar to Steven Adams in terms of on court production and impact, although if he keeps developing his 3 he might be able to be similar to Brook Lopez. So a solid starter who has limitations that necessitate him not being played in certain moments. So for a guy like that to have an obsessed hater is just funny af to me because imagine someone spending their obsessively hating on Ivica Zubac.

I literally had Edey ranked #1 on my expected career VORP based board for the '24 class and my comp was jumbo Zubac and a tier 3 prospect. Which is funny because I assume I'm one of the people on the draft board that triggered a lot of the Edey detractors when they see Edey ranked so high. But its just a mixture of Edey having a very high floor and the quality of the draft class overall.

It's also funny because thats exactly where he is ranked in the class by VORP at this point, and while I doubt he stays there over the next few years, I'd be very surprised if he falls out of the top 9.

I don't understand the logic I've seen from a few people that still insist Edey wasn't worth drafting in the first round. Most draft classes have less than 20 players that stick in the nba, one would essentially have to believe that Edey will wash out of the league after his rookie contract to justify that position.
Just as a reference point from 1988-2018 only 2 drafts have had more >25 players with >1 VORP, while Edey will likely approach >1 VORP in his rookie season.

It’s just one poster who may be trolling.

Everyone else here acknowledges Edey is having a nice rookie year.

[MrBigShot]

Mccain was going to be RoY if he didn't get injured, but i'd be shocked if castle didn't end up as the best player in this draft 2 years from now.

[wemby]

Mccain was going to be RoY if he didn't get injured, but i'd be shocked if castle didn't end up as the best player in this draft 2 years from now.

Yeah, Castle still needs to improve his offensive efficiency (jumper, turnovers) but it's pretty clear he's on another talent level than most other rookies. Maybe someone else rises down the line, but he's definitely one of the top players in the class if not the best, regardless of ROY which could go to Wells because he's more polished and context helps him.

[G R E Y]

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4-10 from 3.

Defensive disruptor.

Presence felt on both ends.

[Bornstellar]

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4-10 from 3.

Defensive disruptor.

Presence felt on both ends.

Outscoring SGA in a matchup is pretty damn impressive for a rookie

[Dan Z]

Reed Sheppard scored 25 points tonight against OKC.

[Jamaaliver]

Reed Sheppard scored 25 points tonight against OKC.

In his first NBA start?!?

We may have another contender for All Rookie Team Honors.

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[PlatinumState]

Is Filipowski future nba starter material? I ask because I see the boxscores but I havent watched him play