2019 NBA Finals Thread, Part 3: Golden State Warriors vs Toronto Raptors | SERIES TIED AT 1

[Outside]

My other thought is that the Warriors main issues in game 1 were defensive. If they address those issues, 109 points is enough to win.

[TheBoi10]

I'd be very surprised. Raps haven't been blown out at home in months.

Raps in 4 or 5 easy. Warriors don't have enough talent without KD to score and can't guard the Raps.

Sixers and Bucks were better than these dudes without KD.

Raptors fans starting to sound like Bucks fans last round..

What's wrong with my points?


I called Raps in 6 over the Bucks and Raps in 5 over warriors w/of KD before both series.

[everdiso]

Based on some of these takes, you'd think the Raps held GS to 90 and won by 25.

On the 2nd day after the game I was starting to worry about this. A 9pt game and Siakam and Gasol went off. Started to feel closer than it looked watching the game.

But then I re-watched the game and it reaffirmed the feeling I had when watching - while the raps were never quite able to pull away, it was still a pretty comfortable victory. GSW kept trying to make runs but the raps answered every one. After watching again I do think the score was probably a bit flattering to the warriors.

That being said, I expect a MUCH better warriors team tonight, and the raps better play even better than game 1 if they want to win this one.

My point is more that the Warriors missed plenty of good shots, weren't sharp offensively, and still scored 109. Don't get me wrong, I think the Raps defense was very good and deserves plenty of credit, but this quoting the Warriors half court Ortg as if the Raps can hold the Warriors to 80 points is ridiculous. Missed quality shots are still quality shots. Offensive rebounds for extra possessions count. Transition baskets still count,

The Raps are an excellent defensive team, but when the Warriors get it going, they can impose their will even against an excellent defense.

Thing is I'm pretty sure the warriors DID have it going offensively in game 1.

But they only have 2 guys that can shoot. And only one of them can dribble.

[B-Ball Freak]

Raps in 4 or 5 easy. Warriors don't have enough talent without KD to score and can't guard the Raps.

Sixers and Bucks were better than these dudes without KD.

Raptors fans starting to sound like Bucks fans last round..

What's wrong with my points?


I called Raps in 6 over the Bucks and Raps in 5 over warriors w/of KD before both series.

"Easy"?...nothing is easy about this, I get you're hyped about the team and you should be, but let's not be cocky little pricks like some of the Bucks fans were.

[Triples333]

My other thought is that the Warriors main issues in game 1 were defensive. If they address those issues, 109 points is enough to win.

I thought their half court D was generally very good, but their transition D was a joke. I know that was a point of emphasis for Kerr, so that should be handled in game 2. Combined with the Raptors hitting an amount of tough shots that I don't see duplicated (along with a whistle that I don't think goes as much in their favor), I see that improving. Offensively, they DO have an issue without KD, and it's simply a fact of not having enough shooting on the floor, especially when Klay is on the bench. The Raptors absolutely collapsed on Curry not only 35 feet out any time there was a PnR screen, but any time he drove to the hoop there would be 4 defenders showing on him. And why wouldn't they when the Warriors were forced to run lineups with say Curry, Livingston, Iguodala, Draymond and Looney? The fact that Iguodala and Draymond are getting wide open 3's and missed every one is the issue, and the collapsing on Curry will only get worse until they prove that they can hit some of them. It's why the Warriors are forced to play guys like Mckinnie, Jerekbo and Quinn Cook - who have absolutely no business getting PT in an NBA Finals - just to try to get some spacing and shooting.

Bottom line, if Iguodala and Draymond don't hit at least a few threes between the two of them, it makes it far too hard on Curry, and far too easy on the Raptors D. I do think Iguodala steps up tonight and hits a couple, making just enough of a difference for the Warriors to notch the W.

[LoveMyRaps]

Got a feeling we're in for another Spicy 30pt performance.

[oaktownwarriors87]

The Warriors are going to go down 2-0 tonight. Early foul trouble will haunt them and soften their defense.

Durant will come back for game 3, Kawhi will eat him alive, and they'll go down 3-0. Kawhi is Jordan talk will hit it's peak.

The Warriors will make their adjustments (Durant on Siakam, no double teams, more PnR) and Durant will have his legs back.

Warriors will then win 4 in a row, redeeming the 3-1 lead they blew to the Cavs. Durant will also redeem the 3-1 lead he blew to the Warriors.

[Samurai]

It certainly isn't rocket science to see that the Warriors are not good enough without KD. Just as I think even the Raptors fans would have to acknowledge that they would not be good enough if Kawhi were sidelined. Teams need their best player, period. This is hardly surprising.

[MikeM]

Without KD, the Warriors only have one big adjustment they can throw at Toronto and that's Green at the 5.

They'll probably use that a bit tonight and get an initial surge. Toronto will have to adjust back to that and if they can do it, I don't see what's left for GSW besides just spamming Curry/Klay as much as humanly possible.

This has been the Raptors M.O. all playoffs. They have the personnel to adjust after the opponent makes their move. They can match anything GSW does. Then it will just come down to execution.

Without KD, I don't see any big adjustment GSW can make to get consistent open looks. Like I said, they have one big curve to throw and Toronto will probably match it, and then it's just going to have to be Curry/Klay hitting tough shots.

[Triples333]

It certainly isn't rocket science to see that the Warriors are not good enough without KD. Just as I think even the Raptors fans would have to acknowledge that they would not be good enough if Kawhi were sidelined. Teams need their best player, period. This is hardly surprising.

Honestly if the Warriors just had a Joe Ingles type player in his absence, they would be golden. As I mentioned above, it was the complete lack of spacing and shooting from Iguodala and Draymond that is costing them in half court sets. If they get a bit from them in game 2, they'll likely win (assuming they also focus in and clean up the transition D laziness).

As far as KD being the best player, that's definitely not the case. If the roles were switched and it was Curry who went down, we wouldn't be having these matchup discussions, because they never would have made it out of the 2nd round. It's not exactly a secret that this is still a dominant team with Curry, and when he is out KD simply isn't a potent enough all around offensive talent to fill his void (the Warriors play like a mid tier playoff team, and the sample size is ample).

That's not a knock on KD either, and he's good enough to get his stats either way (albeit significantly less efficiently if Curry is not on the court), there's just no player in the game that impacts a teams offense (and overall ceiling) as positively as Curry. Hence why stats like PIPM always showcase Curry as the #1.

[everdiso]

Over the last 2 years Dray has shot 29% from 3, and 24% in the playoffs. And the thing is these are mostly open corner 3s, too. Iggy is at 31%. Again mostly open corner 3s.

Everyone other than splash bros combined to shoot 31% from 3 in game 1. 5/16. Not sure we can expect any better than that from them.

In fact, splash bros shot 47% from 3 in game 1, most of them contested, which is probably better than we can expect from them.

[everdiso]

Without KD, the Warriors only have one big adjustment they can throw at Toronto and that's Green at the 5.

They'll probably use that a bit tonight and get an initial surge. Toronto will have to adjust back to that and if they can do it, I don't see what's left for GSW besides just spamming Curry/Klay as much as humanly possible.
.

Does this really change anything for the raps tho? Isn't Gasol a nice match for dray?

[Samurai]

It certainly isn't rocket science to see that the Warriors are not good enough without KD. Just as I think even the Raptors fans would have to acknowledge that they would not be good enough if Kawhi were sidelined. Teams need their best player, period. This is hardly surprising.

Honestly if the Warriors just had a Joe Ingles type player in his absence, they would be golden. As I mentioned above, it was the complete lack of spacing and shooting from Iguodala and Draymond that is costing them in half court sets. If they get a bit from them in game 2, they'll likely win (assuming they also focus in and clean up the transition D laziness).

As far as KD being the best player, that's definitely not the case. If the roles were switched and it was Curry who went down, we wouldn't be having these matchup discussions, because they never would have made it out of the 2nd round. It's not exactly a secret that this is still a dominant team with Curry, and when he is out KD simply isn't a potent enough all around offensive talent to fill his void (the Warriors play like a mid tier playoff team, and the sample size is ample).

That's not a knock on KD either, and he's good enough to get his stats either way (albeit significantly less efficiently if Curry is not on the court), there's just no player in the game that impacts a teams offense (and overall ceiling) as positively as Curry. Hence why stats like PIPM always showcase Curry as the #1.

You're saying IF they had an Ingles-type player; you can't play those type of "what if " games. Teams that are very top heavy like the Warriors won't have that option because so much of the salary cap goes to the stars. It just isn't realistic to miraculously add a $11M guy to a team that can only sign people for the vet minimum.

You can argue whether KD is or is not their best player, but you absolutely cannot say that he "definitely" is or is not. I think Curry has the higher ceiling but KD has the higher floor. So it depends on how you define "best player". Curry averaged slightly more ppg than KD, but KD averaged more rebounds (obviously) and assists (surprisingly) per game this year. And KD's WS/48 was higher than Curry this year, with an even bigger edge in the playoffs. Whether you factor in those items is your choice, but there are clearly some data points that favor KD as their best player - it certainly is NOT a "definite" thing.

[Triples333]

Over the last 2 years Dray has shot 29% from 3, and 24% in the playoffs. And the thing is these are mostly open corner 3s, too. Iggy is at 31%. Again mostly open corner 3s.

Everyone other than splash bros combined to shoot 31% from 3 in game 1. 5/16. Not sure we can expect any better than that from them.

In fact, splash bros shot 47% from 3 in game 1, most of them contested, which is probably better than we can expect from them.

You're right, but again the real key is Draymond and Iggy hitting SOME of their open 3's (and they should). They missed all 6 attempts in game 1. Jerekbo and Cook were hitting, but it's tough to build leads with them on the court due to their defensive shortcomings. If those 3's come from Draymond and Iguodala, that's when we're able to build up leads because the D is also there in those lineups.

Another X factor for the 2nd unit might be Cousins, simply because they at least need to pay attention to him offensively. And while a liability defensively outside of the block, some of that is mitigated from him being a rim presence, and a rebounding presence. I'll be curious to see if he gets a few more minutes tonight, I think it's worth a shot.

[tdotrep2]

Without KD, the Warriors only have one big adjustment they can throw at Toronto and that's Green at the 5.

They'll probably use that a bit tonight and get an initial surge. Toronto will have to adjust back to that and if they can do it, I don't see what's left for GSW besides just spamming Curry/Klay as much as humanly possible.

This has been the Raptors M.O. all playoffs. They have the personnel to adjust after the opponent makes their move. They can match anything GSW does. Then it will just come down to execution.

Without KD, I don't see any big adjustment GSW can make to get consistent open looks. Like I said, they have one big curve to throw and Toronto will probably match it, and then it's just going to have to be Curry/Klay hitting tough shots.

Green at the 5 is a disaster. Raptors would just help off him and switch everything else. Their best bet is to try and attack Gasol.

[5playersnot1]

Lebron is the GOAT for a reason

LOL, if TV ratings are some kind of indicator of GOAT status then MJ is the GOAT by a country mile.

The 1998 finals are still by far the highest rated finals ever (and the NBA has never gotten back to the finals ratings it had from 1985 until 1998). I will say I'm interested in how many people stream now (esp in say the last 3-5 years... not sure if that's reflected at all in the numbers).

Interestingly enough the GSW/Cavs finals garnered higher ratings than any of the Miami finals.

Most people I know are using IPs or streaming.

All of these dinosaur ratings will soon be obselete. It's like arguing about CD sales in 2019.

I agreed completely, these ratings are obsolete.

I'm 39, certainly not part of the millennial generation, and I've been streaming everything for over 5 years. Finding Reddit streams 3 years ago was like winning the lottery. Most of my friends have slowly transitioned to this approach as well. If dudes in there 30's are streaming, then certainly younger, presumably less well off people are too. And probably in giant numbers.

[Triples333]

It certainly isn't rocket science to see that the Warriors are not good enough without KD. Just as I think even the Raptors fans would have to acknowledge that they would not be good enough if Kawhi were sidelined. Teams need their best player, period. This is hardly surprising.

Honestly if the Warriors just had a Joe Ingles type player in his absence, they would be golden. As I mentioned above, it was the complete lack of spacing and shooting from Iguodala and Draymond that is costing them in half court sets. If they get a bit from them in game 2, they'll likely win (assuming they also focus in and clean up the transition D laziness).

As far as KD being the best player, that's definitely not the case. If the roles were switched and it was Curry who went down, we wouldn't be having these matchup discussions, because they never would have made it out of the 2nd round. It's not exactly a secret that this is still a dominant team with Curry, and when he is out KD simply isn't a potent enough all around offensive talent to fill his void (the Warriors play like a mid tier playoff team, and the sample size is ample).

That's not a knock on KD either, and he's good enough to get his stats either way (albeit significantly less efficiently if Curry is not on the court), there's just no player in the game that impacts a teams offense (and overall ceiling) as positively as Curry. Hence why stats like PIPM always showcase Curry as the #1.

You're saying IF they had an Ingles-type player; you can't play those type of "what if " games. Teams that are very top heavy like the Warriors won't have that option because so much of the salary cap goes to the stars. It just isn't realistic to miraculously add a $11M guy to a team that can only sign people for the vet minimum.

You can argue whether KD is or is not their best player, but you absolutely cannot say that he "definitely" is or is not. I think Curry has the higher ceiling but KD has the higher floor. So it depends on how you define "best player". Curry averaged slightly more ppg than KD, but KD averaged more rebounds (obviously) and assists (surprisingly) per game this year. And KD's WS/48 was higher than Curry this year, with an even bigger edge in the playoffs. Whether you factor in those items is your choice, but there are clearly some data points that favor KD as their best player - it certainly is NOT a "definite" thing.

From a team impact perspective, Curry brings the higher floor and the higher ceiling, hence why they simply win more games when he is on and KD is not. RPM/PIPM is a FAR better indicator of your impact then a stat like WinShares. It's probably the best we have available to the public. How can you argue that KD has a higher "floor" potential then the team that averaged 60 win seasons for 4 straight seasons under Curry (the seasons following the Monta trade/Curry's missed 2011/12 season), including multiple Finals trips and a title? One of those going straight through Durant's Thunder (who were finally at full health and had a prime Westbrook/Ibaka/Adams/Robertson), where Curry was the best player on the court. There's no dynamic we can shape it where KD is a more impactful player.

My Joe Ingles comment is simply to illustrate that it's not a superstar that they need, it's that they need some spacing and shooting from a competent defender (IE not Jerekbo). Klay is his only help in that regard right now (whereas with a team like Milwaukee, Giannis has Middleton, Brogdon, Hill and Lopez all providing this. Last game we saw Kawhi get this from Siakim, Gasol, Green, VanVleet and to a lesser extent Lowry... but Lowry still commands attention, so he's valuable for spacing). Curry just does not have it right now. That's what they will pick up with their MLE next season assuming KD is gone (and probably even if he stayed). As is, they need that to come from Iguodala (Draymond would be a bonus). He pulled it off with ease in the 2015 Finals when given the amount of space he's seeing now, so I'm optimistic that he will come through again after his poor showing in game 1 (offensively). IF he is actually injured and they have to sit him, the Warriors are probably SOL until KD comes back, and they'll need him by Game 3 (could steal game 3 at home without him, but to win tonight without him would take massive nights from all of Curry/Klay/Draymond). It's likely simply too much depth to lose (and in turn too much time from guys that simply don't belong on the court) to overcome a VERY talented and VERY smart Raptors team.

[everdiso]

Over the last 2 years Dray has shot 29% from 3, and 24% in the playoffs. And the thing is these are mostly open corner 3s, too. Iggy is at 31%. Again mostly open corner 3s.

Everyone other than splash bros combined to shoot 31% from 3 in game 1. 5/16. Not sure we can expect any better than that from them.

In fact, splash bros shot 47% from 3 in game 1, most of them contested, which is probably better than we can expect from them.

You're right, but again the real key is Draymond and Iggy hitting SOME of their open 3's (and they should). They missed all 6 attempts in game 1. Jerekbo and Cook were hitting, but it's tough to build leads with them on the court due to their defensive shortcomings. If those 3's come from Draymond and Iguodala, that's when we're able to build up leads because the D is also there in those lineups.

Another X factor for the 2nd unit might be Cousins, simply because they at least need to pay attention to him offensively. And while a liability defensively outside of the block, some of that is mitigated from him being a rim presence, and a rebounding presence. I'll be curious to see if he gets a few more minutes tonight, I think it's worth a shot.

I was actually impressed with boogie's defense.

His offense doesn t really fit but they badly need another outlet so maybe he can be an x-factor if he can get his jumper going. Thing is Gasol is his worst nightmare.

[Porz]

Raps in 4 or 5 easy. Warriors don't have enough talent without KD to score and can't guard the Raps.

Sixers and Bucks were better than these dudes without KD.

Raptors fans starting to sound like Bucks fans last round..

What's wrong with my points?


I called Raps in 6 over the Bucks and Raps in 5 over warriors w/of KD before both series.

Must be blessed to be so ignorant that you don't notice how arrogant your porst comes up. "easy peasy" right? Like a walk in the park, why are we even watching, right?

[Arp590]

I'd be shocked if Draymond doesn't poke Kawhi or Pascal in the eye tonight.