madmaxmedia wrote:MotownMadness wrote:BballIsLife11 wrote:
That would not be good. Hopefully all of our medical capabilities hold up and the death rate is less than 1%. If that happens this is a major success, all things considered. Only time will tell though.
The thing i cant get past though is these test and death ratios are based on those who were just sick enough to get looked at. How many out there that went through it already possibly without knowing would decrease the death rate.
I mean theres gotta be way more infected just walking around that if could be added to the poll would drastically drop that death percentage
You have some different numbers/factors that are all relevant and will all impact the total number of deaths. The mortality rate is not fixed, if everyone who has serious symptoms is able to get proper medical care then the mortality rate will indeed be pretty low. OTOH, the virus is pretty contagious and there many asymptomatic carriers unknowingly spreading it. If we have too many sick people at the hospitals, many WON'T get the proper care and will die because of it.
The mortality rate in Italy is extremely high for this very reason. There are many people in Italy lying on cots right now in overflow buildings, slowly suffocating and dying, because there's not enough equipment to go around.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8135907/Italian-doctor-describes-dying-patients-moments-plead-loved-ones-final-time.html
I think trying to nail down an actual death rate at this early stage is mostly pointless. So what if you can accurately count the number of people who had it but weren't impacted? The death rate % gets lower but you know what, the same # of people are dying either way.
The death rate is not something that is fixed. If you could somehow test and measure 330 million Americans today and have an answer tomorrow that the death rate is persently 0.03%, what does that matter? It will change every day as the number of cases changes, the number of people needing hospitalization changes and the strain on the system starts to happen.
The death rate is not a steady thing that is built into the virus. It will change depending on the actions taken in response.
Do little = insanely high death rate
Do more is = really bad death rate
Do a lot = still a very bad rate
Do everything humanly possible = lower death rate, but still a whole lot of people dead because of how widely this will spread.
It's the death rate, in combination with the infection rate, in combination with our health care response, that will ultimately give us a number that we can more accurately guess. Wanna know why SARS and MERS and Swine Flu and Ebola have known, measurable death rates? Because the thing (mostly) ran its course, was eventually contained and the numbers were done afterwards. It's easy to count things up when all the variables stop changing and no one else is catching it or dying.
It's like wanting to know the final score of a basketball game half way through the first quarter. It's not answerable, and even basketball gives us a whole lot more ability to predict because we have decades of games worth of stats to run the numbers and make mostly educated guessed - which are still mostly wrong.
This is so damn new that there is no reliable history of numbers to work with - it's up to us to help determine where it ends up.
. Disaster brewing.
