2022-23 NBA MVP Discussion (Pt.1)

[greekbuck34]

Yet, according to some people, Giannis is "underperforming".

Which is, of course, ludicrous. 34.4 / 14.0 / 5.8, 35.3% from 3, 125 ORTG, 64.5% TS, +8.7 OBPM, league-high .337 WS/48, league-high +5.1 DBPM. I mean, it's super early and he isn't going to maintain these specific numbers, but even 80% of that would be a phenomenal season and he may well maintain more than that. Giannis is an absolute monster. And if he maintains a competent level of 3pt shooting, he's going to be effectively unguardable.

He is doing all that on offense while also forcing players to shoot:

33.3% on 3s
31.7% on 2 pointers
41.7% at the rim!!

Doncic who has similar production to him on offense and seems to be the 2nd MVP so far in the season holds his opponents to:

40% on 3s
62.1% on 2s
76.2% at the rim

It's his defense that's seperating him from others just like in his first two MVP seasons against prime Harden. You can see that teams are trying to get him as far as possible from the ball and the rim before they attack instead of targeting him each offense.

[tsherkin]

He is doing all that on offense while also forcing players to shoot:

33.3% on 3s
31.7% on 2 pointers
41.7% at the rim!!

Doncic who has similar production to him on offense and seems to be the 2nd MVP so far in the season holds his opponents to:

40% on 3s
62.1% on 2s
76.2% at the rim

It's his defense that's seperating him from others just like in his first two MVP seasons against prime Harden. You can see that teams are trying to get him as far as possible from the ball and the rim before they attack instead of targeting him each offense.

Yes, Giannis is a nightmarish matchup on defense. His length and mobility are absurd tools reminiscent of prime Kevin Garnett in terms of ground covered to contest and all that. Except that he's also quite a bit more physically powerful on top of it all. I don't know how far I want to carry a KG comparison defensively beyond the length/mobility angle, because of course Garnett was a wild-ass defender in his own right, but you see what I mean.

[Hobo4President]

This race is probably going to be between Doncic and Giannis and both have had ludicrous starts to the season.

[Roger Murdock]

Giannis leads the league in BPM, Drtg, DWS, WS48 & DBPM — while also being #2 or #3 in nearly every other advanced category.

34.7 PER, 65%TS — 34/14/6 w/ 1.6 bpg

Dude might be gearing up for another MVP & DPOY sweep.

It's too early though. If it's close race between Giannis & someone else than Giannis might lose thanks to voters' fatigue.

I dont think voter fatigue will factor in. 2 years ago sure because he underwhelmed in playoffs after getting the 1-seed and lots of people acted like he wasnt a playoff guy. Since then he won a title and FMVP and his overall reptutation has improved significantly. This isn't a Harden situation where the guy **** the bed in the playoffs every year and voters decided 'this guy aint a winner'. People believe in Giannis now more than ever.

[GeorgeSears]

The MVP race, at least this early in the season, will be updated week-to-week.

Right now:

1. Giannis (wide lead due to stats + undefeated record)
2. Tatum
3. Luka
3. Ja

Jokic has been subpar (by his legendary standards) and the Nuggets are 4-3, so he's currently out of it, but there is time to make up room.

[HotRocks34]

No offense to any candidates but with how the season has started and barring dramatic events, this is Giannis vs Luka.

With the regression of Embiid, and the wrist-injured, help-Porter-and-Murray-get-back-into-the-flow version of Jokic, Giannis and Luka look like the two most dominant forces in the league right now IMO.

However, Dallas needs to win more games. Bucks are 5-0 and Dallas is 3-3. Dallas easily could be 5-1 but they're not.

So edge to Giannis.

I really hope if Giannis earns the award that he wins it. I think he will, but I hope he does.

I like both players so I'd be happy with either guy winning it.

Luka is off to a nuclear start. He's improved his FT% and his TO%. The only weakness in his game right now is TH%, as he admitted after the game last night he gets tired and he just jacks up threes then. So he's got to work on the shot selection there.

His defense is good (overall; he still has his bad moments), and he did well on a back to back the other night. Just work on the three-ball (shot selection) and get to 50 wins and that's about it. Fat Luka from the start of last year seems long gone.

[INKtastic]

The MVP race, at least this early in the season, will be updated week-to-week.

Right now:

1. Giannis (wide lead due to stats + undefeated record)
2. Tatum
3. Luka
3. Ja

Jokic has been subpar (by his legendary standards) and the Nuggets are 4-3, so he's currently out of it, but there is time to make up room.

No love for Mitchell, who BBRef has at #2

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html

[Dutchball97]

After 6 games I'd say Luka has been the best player but Giannis is right behind him and the 6-0 vs 3-3 record should still be enough for Giannis to keep the lead in the race for now.

[CharityStripe34]

It is still way too early. But, yea, Gianni is having a huge start to the season. And he's still feeling out the games and his own pacing.

For many of these guys their numbers are going to regress. The thing is, when Gianni average 28-12-5 for FIVE CONSECUTIVE seasons (something no one's ever done), people are going to take it for granted.

That being said, I can see Luka averaging a triple-double given the way Dallas is currently constructed. If he does that and they're sniffing around the 4-5 seed the campaign for him will be massive.

[yoyoboy]

Yeah it’s not going to last by the end of the season because Garland will return to share more offensive load, his defensive effort will probably wane, and his 3P% will fall back down to earth. But just speaking right now, Mitchell is top 3. He’s been unbelievable offensively and his defense has been solid to good so far too.

1. Giannis
2. Doncic
3. Mitchell

[Yuri36]

No offense to any candidates but with how the season has started and barring dramatic events, this is Giannis vs Luka.

With the regression of Embiid, and the wrist-injured, help-Porter-and-Murray-get-back-into-the-flow version of Jokic, Giannis and Luka look like the two most dominant forces in the league right now IMO.

However, Dallas needs to win more games. Bucks are 5-0 and Dallas is 3-3. Dallas easily could be 5-1 but they're not.

So edge to Giannis.

I really hope if Giannis earns the award that he wins it. I think he will, but I hope he does.

I like both players so I'd be happy with either guy winning it.

Luka is off to a nuclear start. He's improved his FT% and his TO%. The only weakness in his game right now is TH%, as he admitted after the game last night he gets tired and he just jacks up threes then. So he's got to work on the shot selection there.

His defense is good (overall; he still has his bad moments), and he did well on a back to back the other night. Just work on the three-ball (shot selection) and get to 50 wins and that's about it. Fat Luka from the start of last year seems long gone.

Not if you compare the two rosters.
Thé truth is that even with Luka, this mavs roster shouldn't normally make the POs in the west.

[Statlanta]

I think the voters will pivot to Luka if it is a tie between Giannis and him. Voter fatigue is real.

[BoatsNZones]

Seems as is Giannis is unlikely to ever in fact develop a shot, and that's good news for the rest of the league. He's definitely taking advantage of the no take-foul implementation though. Great opening few games for him.

[toooskies]

I think the voters will pivot to Luka if it is a tie between Giannis and him. Voter fatigue is real.

Voter fatigue wears off after two years, especially if a guy reaches a new level of play. Still too early to say that Giannis will sustain at this level, but that's true of everyone in the conversation at this point.

[Infinite Llamas]

I think the voters will pivot to Luka if it is a tie between Giannis and him. Voter fatigue is real.

Voter fatigue wears off after two years, especially if a guy reaches a new level of play. Still too early to say that Giannis will sustain at this level, but that's true of everyone in the conversation at this point.

Has he really reached new levels of play though? He’s taking about three more shots a game with Middleton out and his stats look very similar to the last three years. His free throws and 3’s still look off…raising those numbers would qualify as a new level

[agentofatlas]

What about Shai as a dark horse candidate? He's been really good plus OKC is winning.

[Packbuckman]

I think the voters will pivot to Luka if it is a tie between Giannis and him. Voter fatigue is real.

Voter fatigue wears off after two years, especially if a guy reaches a new level of play. Still too early to say that Giannis will sustain at this level, but that's true of everyone in the conversation at this point.

Has he really reached new levels of play though? He’s taking about three more shots a game with Middleton out and his stats look very similar to the last three years. His free throws and 3’s still look off…raising those numbers would qualify as a new level

You can’t just look at stats alone you have to watch him play he’s more under control hardly any silly charging he’s setting his teammates up better he should be at 8 assists a gm if his teammates could shoot to many gms already under 30% from 3. Just look at his 2nd half pts where he leads the league at over 20 pts a gm. His ball handling is improved too but I still think he can play better which is scary. Once we get Middleton Pat and ingles back this team will be the best team Bud ever had now it’s up to him to coach them

[CharityStripe34]

I think the voters will pivot to Luka if it is a tie between Giannis and him. Voter fatigue is real.

Voter fatigue wears off after two years, especially if a guy reaches a new level of play. Still too early to say that Giannis will sustain at this level, but that's true of everyone in the conversation at this point.

Has he really reached new levels of play though? He’s taking about three more shots a game with Middleton out and his stats look very similar to the last three years. His free throws and 3’s still look off…raising those numbers would qualify as a new level

As far as his maturity and "feel for the game" absolutely. We're also spoiled in the last 5-10 years where, thanks to the explosion of offense, guys are putting up historic numbers relatively "easily."

[Infinite Llamas]

Voter fatigue wears off after two years, especially if a guy reaches a new level of play. Still too early to say that Giannis will sustain at this level, but that's true of everyone in the conversation at this point.

Has he really reached new levels of play though? He’s taking about three more shots a game with Middleton out and his stats look very similar to the last three years. His free throws and 3’s still look off…raising those numbers would qualify as a new level

As far as his maturity and "feel for the game" absolutely. We're also spoiled in the last 5-10 years where, thanks to the explosion of offense, guys are putting up historic numbers relatively "easily."

Well that’s good to hear on the “feel”. I felt his game was more robotic in the past but he has made strides these last few years in that regard. I haven’t seen him much this year but it’s nice to see him get less of those silly charge fouls and play more in control with more finesse.

[toooskies]

Has he really reached new levels of play though? He’s taking about three more shots a game with Middleton out and his stats look very similar to the last three years. His free throws and 3’s still look off…raising those numbers would qualify as a new level

As far as his maturity and "feel for the game" absolutely. We're also spoiled in the last 5-10 years where, thanks to the explosion of offense, guys are putting up historic numbers relatively "easily."

Well that’s good to hear on the “feel”. I felt his game was more robotic in the past but he has made strides these last few years in that regard. I haven’t seen him much this year but it’s nice to see him get less of those silly charge fouls and play more in control with more finesse.

I hadn't taken into account his last game (where he undershot his rebounding and scoring numbers and had more turnovers and fouls) but his stats through 5 games were a significant jump. Small sample size and all that. Games in March will matter a lot more than the start of the year, though.