2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread

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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#281 » by miman15 » Tue Nov 8, 2016 5:14 am

Triples333 wrote:
miman15 wrote:
Triples333 wrote:For a team who doesn't have a 2nd best player in the top-50 in the NBA (honestly probably not top 100), I think ~50 wins should do it. Another great game from Harden tonight, who were Vegas underdogs but he took them to the 8 point win with another ~30/15/7 performance. Crazy tough start to the year for the Rox who have essentially every game on the road, but they have a winning record. He's the MVP over Kawhi right now.


I agree with that harden is probably the most indispensible player right now, and playing extremely well. But 50 wins just wont be enough for him to be mvp. Weve seen Wade done that before with crazier stats, T-Mac and Lebrons 2004 to 2008 circa, they put up monster stats at both ends of the floor than harden right now with crappy teammates, but they still didnt win the mvp. Lebron didnt win it till the cavs won 60 plus games.

In the modern era we have never seen a player lead the league in points and assists, which he may very well do. It would be epic/special and due for an MVP award if he has them over 50 wins. He nearly stole it from Curry in 2015 and they were not a top 3 team in the NBA (extremely rare).

Yeah, it would be crazy if hell lead the league in scoring and assists. Westbrook also has a chance to do it. I see harden in top 3 or 2
on both categories, but he wont lead in both. Hes too bad on the defensive end for me to put him on no. 1.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#282 » by Triples333 » Tue Nov 8, 2016 6:46 am

miman15 wrote:
Triples333 wrote:
miman15 wrote:
I agree with that harden is probably the most indispensible player right now, and playing extremely well. But 50 wins just wont be enough for him to be mvp. Weve seen Wade done that before with crazier stats, T-Mac and Lebrons 2004 to 2008 circa, they put up monster stats at both ends of the floor than harden right now with crappy teammates, but they still didnt win the mvp. Lebron didnt win it till the cavs won 60 plus games.

In the modern era we have never seen a player lead the league in points and assists, which he may very well do. It would be epic/special and due for an MVP award if he has them over 50 wins. He nearly stole it from Curry in 2015 and they were not a top 3 team in the NBA (extremely rare).

Yeah, it would be crazy if hell lead the league in scoring and assists. Westbrook also has a chance to do it. I see harden in top 3 or 2
on both categories, but he wont lead in both. Hes too bad on the defensive end for me to put him on no. 1.

Lebron is a net-zero at best in the reg season and Westbrook is just bad more often than not. Harden's rep does not represent the reality of his D in comparison to these two, that is for sure.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#283 » by miman15 » Tue Nov 8, 2016 9:33 am

Triples333 wrote:
miman15 wrote:
Triples333 wrote:In the modern era we have never seen a player lead the league in points and assists, which he may very well do. It would be epic/special and due for an MVP award if he has them over 50 wins. He nearly stole it from Curry in 2015 and they were not a top 3 team in the NBA (extremely rare).

Yeah, it would be crazy if hell lead the league in scoring and assists. Westbrook also has a chance to do it. I see harden in top 3 or 2
on both categories, but he wont lead in both. Hes too bad on the defensive end for me to put him on no. 1.

Lebron is a net-zero at best in the reg season and Westbrook is just bad more often than not. Harden's rep does not represent the reality of his D in comparison to these two, that is for sure.


Lol... net zero at best? were did you get that from? Your probably talking about this season right? Dont worry he'll pick it up as the season goes....

Westbooks Defensive rating this season is 95, and Lebron is only 107, he always starts slow. Harden is only 111, and it will only get worse as the season goes due to more offensive load....

Last Season, Lebron and Westbrook were 103...

Lebron when focused is a Defensive player of the year candidate and Westbrook can also be a beast on that end.
Theres too much evidence at how bad Harden is defensively...Probably the worse among superstars, but he is a beast offensive player, no weakness on that end, he looks so effortless scoring the ball or passing...
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#284 » by Gil » Tue Nov 8, 2016 12:42 pm

Damn, Harden has to lead the League in assists, points AND be the best defender every night just to have a chance at making the All-NBA team. Is he Michael Jordan?
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#285 » by miman15 » Tue Nov 8, 2016 12:53 pm

Gil wrote:Damn, Harden has to lead the League in assists, points AND be the best defender every night just to have a chance at making the All-NBA team. Is he Michael Jordan?

This is an MVP discussion thread, not All NBA team thread.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#286 » by Tritodian » Tue Nov 8, 2016 1:01 pm

James Harden is ranked as the BEST player so far this season by ESPN.

http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/17992488/nba-player-rankings-lebron-james-kevin-durant-james-harden-top

Image

James Harden, take a bow.

Harden opened up his week on the road against James and the Cavs. His first quarter Tuesday proved to be precursor for the 11 quarters that followed. He scored 13 points, more than any player on either team. He dished out six dimes, also more than any player.

Harden finished that game with 41 points and 15 assists. He followed that up with 30 and 15 at Madison Square Garden and 30 and 12 in Atlanta. He finished the week averaging a tidy 33.7 PPG and 14.0 APG while shooting better than 50 percent from the floor in each game and averaging more rebounds (7.3) than his own starting center (Clint Capela, 6.7).

How rare is the week Harden just had? According to the Elias Sports Bureau, just three other players in NBA history -- Oscar Robertson, Nate Archibald and Tim Hardaway -- have ever played in three straight road games and finished with at least 30 points and 10 assists in all of them. Harden is the only one to do it while shooting at least 50 percent in each game.

Let's back up to that first quarter against Cleveland to really illustrate the value of his playmaking.

A run through the roster of his assists: Capela dunk. Another Capela dunk. Eric Gordon from inside the paint. Trevor Ariza layup. Nene dunk. Corey Brewer layup. Five of the six were from inside of two feet with the other an uncontested runner. He finished the week with 24 assists on shots made inside of two feet. No other player had more than 15.

If you only included his assists on those close looks, Harden's 8.0 APG for the week still would have ranked fifth in the NBA in total assists per game and ahead of prominent playmakers like Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Generating that volume of high percentage looks does wonders for an offense.

If that wasn't enough music for Houston GM Daryl Morey's ears, consider his other 18 assists. 15 of them were on 3-pointers, with the other three all inside the paint. Not a single mid-range shot among his 42 total assists. For a franchise that routinely takes the fewest mid-range shots of any team in the NBA, Morey himself couldn't have come up with a better distribution of shots created from his franchise player.

Harden's historic second week has further brought into focus some more rarified history. In 1972-73, Archibald became the first (and only) player to lead the NBA in points per game and assists per game in the same season. According to Elias, Archibald averaged 34.5 points and 10.8 assists through six games. Where Harden now stands (31.5 PPG and a league-leading 12.3 APG) is comparable and has at least opened the possibility of a season-long quest to stand alongside Archibald in the history books.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#287 » by miman15 » Tue Nov 8, 2016 1:25 pm

Damn 4 40 point 15 assist games this early in the season? Wow.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#288 » by Bobbcats » Tue Nov 8, 2016 2:50 pm

I think CP will be in the race this year. He is really going after it defensively which suggests he's in better shape than he starts most seasons in. The Clippers look great and he has some ridiculous advanced stats so far this season (84.4 Defensive Rating, .430 WS per 48).
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#289 » by PCProductions » Tue Nov 8, 2016 3:34 pm

Triples333 wrote:Lebron is a net-zero at best in the reg season.


2017 Cavs DRtg (6 G):
Lebron On: 100.2
Lebron Off: 121.8
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#290 » by Down3223 » Tue Nov 8, 2016 3:46 pm

Triples333 wrote:
miman15 wrote:
Triples333 wrote:In the modern era we have never seen a player lead the league in points and assists, which he may very well do. It would be epic/special and due for an MVP award if he has them over 50 wins. He nearly stole it from Curry in 2015 and they were not a top 3 team in the NBA (extremely rare).

Yeah, it would be crazy if hell lead the league in scoring and assists. Westbrook also has a chance to do it. I see harden in top 3 or 2
on both categories, but he wont lead in both. Hes too bad on the defensive end for me to put him on no. 1.

Lebron is a net-zero at best in the reg season and Westbrook is just bad more often than not. Harden's rep does not represent the reality of his D in comparison to these two, that is for sure.


so far this season

218 minutes on court, 70 minutes off court.

Cavs' DRting with LeBron ON court: 100.2, 5th best in the NBA

Cavs' DRting with LeBron OFF court: 121.8, worst in the history of the NBA (114.7 is the worst defensive rating ever posted by any team).
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#291 » by HotRocks34 » Tue Nov 8, 2016 4:00 pm

I currently have 10 players in contention for the award. In no particular order, they are:

Kawhi Leonard
Russell Westbrook
Damian Lillard
DeMar DeRozan
Giannis Antetokounmpo
LeBron James
James Harden
Dwight Howard
Kevin Durant
Chris Paul


As of today, with Houston now 4-3, Harden has no chance to win the award from a historical perspective. Two reasons for this:

- Rockets are projected currently to win about 49 games
- Rockets are currently in 7th place in the West

Here's how the vote looks in the last 30 years, going back to 1987

24 winners were on the #1 seed in their conference (80%)
05 winners were on the #2 seed in their conference (17%)
01 winners were on the #3 seed in their conference (03%)

The overwhelming number of winners come from the top two seeds in their conference. The exception is Jordan in 1988. The Bulls won 50 games that year and they were the 3rd seed in the East.

Jordan had a 30 PER/.300 WS season that year. That's only happened 6 times in NBA history (Jordan 2, LeBron 2, Curry, Wilt). But what people often forget is that along with his offense, Jordan had a monster defensive year as well. He had a +2.3 DBPM and was the second-best DBPM perimeter player (Fat Lever) in the league that year. Also, he won Defensive Player Of The Year. It was easily one of the greatest regular seasons in the history of the league.

Harden, to be sure, will not have the kind of defensive impact this year that Jordan had in 1987-88. So he's unlikely to get the same kind of "outlier" consideration that Jordan did in 1988, even if Harden has a historic offensive season, as he seems on-target to do.

Regardless of what Harden's individual stats are, then, unless the Rockets can get a top-3 seed in the West and win maybe like 54 games or so (the next-lowest win total for a full non-lockout season by an MVP winner in the last 30 years), he won't be a serious candidate based upon the history of the award.

If the Rockets fall below these metrics, my guess is Harden slips into the category of someone like an Anthony Davis in 2014-15 (30.8 PER and .274 WS/48 and +7.1 BPM, finished 6th in MVP voting from a 45-37 squad).
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#292 » by HurricaneKid » Tue Nov 8, 2016 4:03 pm

Triples333 wrote:Lebron is a net-zero at best in the reg season


This is indefensible. And willfully absurd.

The Cavs are 26.8 pts/100 possessions better with LBJ on the floor than without.

Last year the Cavs were -4.8 pts/100 poss in the reg season (well worse than the Knicks) and -7.2 (Nets level) in the playoffs. And won a title.

He has been the best regular season player since AT LEAST Jordan.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#293 » by Triples333 » Tue Nov 8, 2016 4:22 pm

HurricaneKid wrote:
Triples333 wrote:Lebron is a net-zero at best in the reg season


This is indefensible. And willfully absurd.

The Cavs are 26.8 pts/100 possessions better with LBJ on the floor than without.

Last year the Cavs were -4.8 pts/100 poss in the reg season (well worse than the Knicks) and -7.2 (Nets level) in the playoffs. And won a title.

He has been the best regular season player since AT LEAST Jordan.

I was speaking to his defense specifically. And the regular season specifically (also, not very interested in the 200 minute sample size of a team-centric stat. But for reference, last season teams had a 104 Orating with him on and 106 with him off. Pretty negligible)
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#294 » by miman15 » Tue Nov 8, 2016 4:51 pm

HotRocks34 wrote:As of today, with Houston now 4-3, Harden has no chance to win the award from a historical perspective. Two reasons for this:

- Rockets are projected currently to win about 49 games
- Rockets are currently in 7th place in the West

Here's how the vote looks in the last 30 years, going back to 1987

24 winners were on the #1 seed in their conference (80%)
05 winners were on the #2 seed in their conference (17%)
01 winners were on the #3 seed in their conference (03%)

The overwhelming number of winners come from the top two seeds in their conference. The exception is Jordan in 1988. The Bulls won 50 games that year and they were the 3rd seed in the East.

Jordan had a 30 PER/.300 WS season that year. That's only happened 6 times in NBA history (Jordan 2, LeBron 2, Curry, Wilt). But what people often forget is that along with his offense, Jordan had a monster defensive year as well. He had a +2.3 DBPM and was the second-best DBPM perimeter player (Fat Lever) in the league that year. Also, he won Defensive Player Of The Year. It was easily one of the greatest regular seasons in the history of the league.

Harden, to be sure, will not have the kind of defensive impact this year that Jordan had in 1987-88. So he's unlikely to get the same kind of "outlier" consideration that Jordan did in 1988, even if Harden has a historic offensive season, as he seems on-target to do.

Regardless of what Harden's individual stats are, then, unless the Rockets can get a top-3 seed in the West and win maybe like 54 games or so (the next-lowest win total for a full non-lockout season by an MVP winner in the last 30 years), he won't be a serious candidate based upon the history of the award.

If the Rockets fall below these metrics, my guess is Harden slips into the category of someone like an Anthony Davis in 2014-15 (30.8 PER and .274 WS/48 and +7.1 BPM, finished 6th in MVP voting from a 45-37 squad).


THIS.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#295 » by Triples333 » Tue Nov 8, 2016 5:03 pm

HotRocks34 wrote:I currently have 10 players in contention for the award. In no particular order, they are:

Kawhi Leonard
Russell Westbrook
Damian Lillard
DeMar DeRozan
Giannis Antetokounmpo
LeBron James
James Harden
Dwight Howard
Kevin Durant
Chris Paul


As of today, with Houston now 4-3, Harden has no chance to win the award from a historical perspective. Two reasons for this:

- Rockets are projected currently to win about 49 games
- Rockets are currently in 7th place in the West

Here's how the vote looks in the last 30 years, going back to 1987

24 winners were on the #1 seed in their conference (80%)
05 winners were on the #2 seed in their conference (17%)
01 winners were on the #3 seed in their conference (03%)

The overwhelming number of winners come from the top two seeds in their conference. The exception is Jordan in 1988. The Bulls won 50 games that year and they were the 3rd seed in the East.

Jordan had a 30 PER/.300 WS season that year. That's only happened 6 times in NBA history (Jordan 2, LeBron 2, Curry, Wilt). But what people often forget is that along with his offense, Jordan had a monster defensive year as well. He had a +2.3 DBPM and was the second-best DBPM perimeter player (Fat Lever) in the league that year. Also, he won Defensive Player Of The Year. It was easily one of the greatest regular seasons in the history of the league.

Harden, to be sure, will not have the kind of defensive impact this year that Jordan had in 1987-88. So he's unlikely to get the same kind of "outlier" consideration that Jordan did in 1988, even if Harden has a historic offensive season, as he seems on-target to do.

Regardless of what Harden's individual stats are, then, unless the Rockets can get a top-3 seed in the West and win maybe like 54 games or so (the next-lowest win total for a full non-lockout season by an MVP winner in the last 30 years), he won't be a serious candidate based upon the history of the award.

If the Rockets fall below these metrics, my guess is Harden slips into the category of someone like an Anthony Davis in 2014-15 (30.8 PER and .274 WS/48 and +7.1 BPM, finished 6th in MVP voting from a 45-37 squad).

Nice post and while this is all true, we have to also bring context to the fact that two of the top four would-be MVP candidates (Curry/KD) are already essentially out of the running, and it also takes out a likely #1 seed from that conference. You've got 'Bron who is going to lead the Cavs to the 1 seed in the East, but man is there any less of a forgone conclusion than that? There's no story there, and with their scoring load being a 3-headed monster and his defense very likely not being DPOY worthy, it's a tough sell for him to win another MVP (though if his assist numbers stay over ten it would be an easier sell). So, we've got a year where the leader of an outlier team has a legit shot imo, especially with the types of numbers we may see from a few players this season. Since it's way too early to know what the win totals will be, just purely off of production I'd go with either Kawhi or Harden (Westbrook/Bron/KD/Lillard/CP3/Derozen and a couple others all looking to be in the discussion as well. And it seems like Curry is looking to throw his hat in the ring again after last night).

I don't see this as your typical MVP year where it's "top player top team".
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#296 » by OkcSinceSGA » Tue Nov 8, 2016 5:21 pm

Griffin and Paul dominating under the radar. Both playing career low in minutes due to early season domination.

Griffin PER 36: 22/11/4.5/1.5 spg with a 110 Ortg, 91 Drtg, WS/48 of .246.
Paul PER 36: 23/10/4/4 spg. 129 Ortg, 84 DRTG. WS/48 .430.

Paul honestly may be the MVP front runner if the Clippers win 60 games and grab at least the 2 seed.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#297 » by HotRocks34 » Tue Nov 8, 2016 5:27 pm

Triples333 wrote:Nice post and while this is all true, we have to also bring context to the fact that two of the top four would-be MVP candidates (Curry/KD) are already essentially out of the running, and it also takes out a likely #1 seed from that conference. You've got 'Bron who is going to lead the Cavs to the 1 seed in the East, but man is there any less of a forgone conclusion than that? There's no story there.



Thanks.

The story for LeBron is that he's back on top of the world, when people thought his run was over and one columnist even wrote last year that LeBron had become nearly "irrelevant". Put that together with 3-1 comeback, leading Finals in all stats categories and an MVP and you've got a complete "The Comeback" story.

King regains his throne. That seems like an easy sell.

Leonard (new king rising) and Westbrook (Vengeance Tour) are also good narratives, as is Harden The Ultimate D'Antoni Point Guard.

I think the winner (projecting from today) likely is among LeBron, Westbrook and Leonard. For today, I would give the award to Westbrook because OKC is 5-1 and top-2 in their conference. And his stats are better than LeBron's.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#298 » by Shock Defeat » Tue Nov 8, 2016 5:29 pm

HotRocks34 wrote:I currently have 10 players in contention for the award. In no particular order, they are:

Kawhi Leonard
Russell Westbrook
Damian Lillard
DeMar DeRozan
Giannis Antetokounmpo
LeBron James
James Harden
Dwight Howard
Kevin Durant
Chris Paul


As of today, with Houston now 4-3, Harden has no chance to win the award from a historical perspective. Two reasons for this:

- Rockets are projected currently to win about 49 games
- Rockets are currently in 7th place in the West

Here's how the vote looks in the last 30 years, going back to 1987

24 winners were on the #1 seed in their conference (80%)
05 winners were on the #2 seed in their conference (17%)
01 winners were on the #3 seed in their conference (03%)

The overwhelming number of winners come from the top two seeds in their conference. The exception is Jordan in 1988. The Bulls won 50 games that year and they were the 3rd seed in the East.

Jordan had a 30 PER/.300 WS season that year. That's only happened 6 times in NBA history (Jordan 2, LeBron 2, Curry, Wilt). But what people often forget is that along with his offense, Jordan had a monster defensive year as well. He had a +2.3 DBPM and was the second-best DBPM perimeter player (Fat Lever) in the league that year. Also, he won Defensive Player Of The Year. It was easily one of the greatest regular seasons in the history of the league.

Harden, to be sure, will not have the kind of defensive impact this year that Jordan had in 1987-88. So he's unlikely to get the same kind of "outlier" consideration that Jordan did in 1988, even if Harden has a historic offensive season, as he seems on-target to do.

Regardless of what Harden's individual stats are, then, unless the Rockets can get a top-3 seed in the West and win maybe like 54 games or so (the next-lowest win total for a full non-lockout season by an MVP winner in the last 30 years), he won't be a serious candidate based upon the history of the award.

If the Rockets fall below these metrics, my guess is Harden slips into the category of someone like an Anthony Davis in 2014-15 (30.8 PER and .274 WS/48 and +7.1 BPM, finished 6th in MVP voting from a 45-37 squad).

Out of your list, I can eliminate a bunch of players off the bat, Giannis, Dwight, Durant (curry hurts him), LeBron (will be coasting too much), and DeMar (i just don't think he's an MVP talent).

That leaves Lillard, Leonard, Paul, and Westbrook. From there you can use your criteria to start cutting down candidates. Will Lillard/Westbrook be on top 3 seeded teams? It's possible right now but I wouldn't count on it, my top 3 seeds at this point are still GS, SA, and LAC. Since those two are in the same boat as Harden, his statistical advantage might favor him.

Then it leaves Leonard/Paul against Harden. Leonard is a serious candidate and so is Paul especially if the Clippers become #1 seed. If their teams win 60 games give them the MVP, but if those teams are more like 55-win teams and Harden's team is a 48+ win team Harden has a legitimate case for being more deserving of MVP IMO, regardless of seeding.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#299 » by OkcSinceSGA » Tue Nov 8, 2016 5:32 pm

I think honestly that Kawhi or CP3 will win it this year. Both the Spurs and Clippers have 55-60+ win teams. Voter fatigue will work against Lebron and Curry (plus I believe the Warriors may only win 65 games or so, making voters feel like they declined quite a bit with Durant). Harden individually has a great chance, but I just don't see the Rockets getting within even 10 wins of the Spurs and Clippers by season end. Since we know the recent criteria is best player on best team or historically great season, I think Harden will be on the outside looking in considering the Rockets will likely only win 40-50 games yet isn't individually (at least clearly) better than CP3 or Kawhi.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#300 » by HotRocks34 » Tue Nov 8, 2016 5:35 pm

Here's the "LeBron nearly irrelevant" column from Kevin Ding. It was written in January 2016:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2609085-humbled-by-the-warriors-lebron-james-on-verge-of-becoming-irrelevant


I've told people before on here that proving your superiority on the big stage can have a big impact on voters. Karl Malone won the MVP award in 1997 and let's just say that Jordan wasn't thrilled. And he made sure people knew it.

Bulls beat Jazz in the 1997 Finals and next year, right on cue, Jordan is back as MVP. This is what I think has a good chance of happening with LeBron this year. Curry was the 2-time defending MVP and LeBron vanquished him in The Finals. Thus, "king regains throne" and so forth.

People will add that Pippen missed games in the 1997-98 season and that helped Jordan's case. It did (Pippen missed 38 games that season). Still, the Bulls were already a Jordan/Jackson machine at that point and Pippen being gone didn't matter much. Jordan's stats were off of his prime best, but no one had any issue with MJ (35 at the end of that season) winning MVP because everyone recognized he was the best player in the game and the Bulls were tied with the Jazz for the best record in the league that year.
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