Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ)

[Nacho Bidness]

Mortality rate and case fatality rate are not the same thing. So when they say .5 mortality that accounts for people who are not even going to contract the virus. So even at .5 that's shy of 1.7 million.

These are all estimates based on what happened on some cruise ship and based on China which is a totalitarian regime that was able to do things we just can't do. There's also a lot of speculation about how many went undiagnosed and then resolved on their own.

Let's look at the hard numbers though. I'm talking closed cases where we know that either A) they got better and were discharged or B) they died.

In China where they have most of their confirmed cases resolved about 4-5% died. That's confirmed cases, not oh we think this many people had it and we just never knew.

Italy on the other hand has many unresolved cases so I expect their death rate to drop as well but as of now about 44% of resolved confirmed cases have resulted in death. Spain like 38%. We're off to a poor start as well with more deaths than resolved cases actually but it's really early.

In other words, this is a really dangerous virus we're dealing with and people are cherry picking from places like China and SKorea that can pull off things we can't when it comes to making people comply with things. This is as dangerous if not more than they're letting on imo but people worried about money are ready to kill grandma. Things is middle aged and younger that get pneumonia can die too. Especially if there's no beds or respirators.

[RoLo]

here's another variable. everyone's trying to bide time for a medical breakthrough. maybe antivirals. it seems those that are pro-economy feel as though the economy is always number 1. where as the culture in the east they consider the people as number 1. and as long as the people survive you can build the economy back up. its a big ideological difference. but if the US is going to abandon essentially what is a quarter measure, then ppl here might as well be living in a simulation. what is a country if not the ppl that make it.

[LKN]

Read on Twitter

?s=20

[Fairview4Life]

where as the culture in the east they consider the people as number 1.

...what? Who do you consider "the east" in this scenario, that values life more than the economy as opposed to, presumably, us in the west who value money over lives? Just want to know who we're comparing here.

[homecourtloss]

Its like watching and listening to a homeless drunk after his favorite sleeping bag was stolen by his nemesis across the street.

[MagicBagley18]

Read on Twitter

Outbreaks of COVID-19 on cruise ships pose a risk for rapid spread of disease beyond the voyage. Aggressive efforts are required to contain spread. All persons should defer all cruise travel worldwide during the COVID-19 pandemic.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e3.htm?s_cid=mm6912e3_w

Yiiikes

[Optimus_Steel]

The elderly and the poor are getting sicker and dying more.

But the rich still aren't rich enough.

Everybody get back to work!!

Are you really that stupid that you don't know a tanked economy will negatively affect all classes? Poor, middle class, rich. Doesn't matter. If the economy goes under we are all screwed.

If anything, it's the rich that can afford for the economy to go on pause for a while since they have savings and don't depend on a pay check.

I'm not saying we should rush anything and risk lives unnecessarily, but your reasoning is terrible.

That's the entire point of a stimulus package. The government can just pay everyone who is not working. No one will starve - it's a purely political problem with a fairly straightforward solution.

Precisely.

[zimpy27]

Wasn't sure at first from just reading the tweet (and don't want to touch the politics of it either) but yeah it sounds as bad in audio as the tweet reads.

Read on Twitter

?s=20

That's nice, this guy cares about his trading of goods for money more than his life.

Not everyone is the same, most people only work so they can live a life.

You're not really living a life though if you're cooped up inside away from all human contact for months on end. When you're in your 80s would you call this a quality life worth living having nothing to do but hear media talk about the death and destruction around when you can't leave your room/home? I understand both sides frankly, my grandpa at 86 is the same way where he'd rather have the freedom to live his life, watch sports that are all canceled instead of spending many of these months in isolation and fear.

You are living life, you can talk, you can see family, you can do creative things, you can read or watch stories. You're not alone, millions are in the same boat and there are plenty of ways to talk to others.

It's definitely a quality of life worth living. Quality of life erodes when you wake up every day in pain or feeling empty or hating yourself. Saying that being inside, safe, warm, with food and water and entertainment is somehow a poor quality of life is an insult to most people on earth and insult to 99.999999% of the history of mankind.

[Metallikid]

Fauci interviewed by Science.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/i-m-going-keep-pushing-anthony-fauci-tries-make-white-house-listen-facts-pandemic

That's about as damning as it gets.

[mtron929]

I think I have a word other than "nice" to describe it. I'm kind of amazed he even said it, then again I guess I shouldn't be. Between this and the FL governor with the weird blowdryer thing I'm losing what little belief in humanity I had anymore.

I'm not surprised. Many people seem to value money over their own life. I don't know if they are brainwashed or what, I've known people like this. It's just misguided, it's more disturbing that he seems to think he's close circle of weirdos are somehow indicative of what most think.

To be fair, it's not nearly that simple. The true death rate of this virus (were we to simply have a test to give to every person on earth) is very likely <1:100-150 (could be worse as it mutates, but generally a virus becomes less deadly in fact), and that's not a number that will scare off a bulk of citizens who are about to go destitute or lose their business if the shutdown reaches the >6 to 8 week range. It's a fact that the ramifications of a >3 month shutdown would absolutely cripple much of the American economy, and it would take god knows how many years to recover. This is not a black/white issue and we need to make sure politics are removed from the argument as much as possible. It is a cost/benefit issue based on health, livelihood and our future.

Bottom line, they need to get those quick-test kits out en masse ASAP to get a feel for what we are really dealing with and to start making plans to get people back into their place of work. Those who are most susceptible need to stay home, period, and that is where the $ relief efforts need to be focused until proper PPE and ultimately a hopeful vaccine are in widespread use.

I think we need to be clear about what it means to "get back out there" because that much is unclear. People getting back into work should not mean that suddenly we should have big sporting events, concerts, etc. Everyone should still engage in social distancing and keep to themselves as much as possible. Only go outside and function on what is absolutely necessary and minimize all contacts with other people. There is this strange narrative forming that we either shutdown completely or get back to business as usual. And the optimal solution is somewhere in the middle.

[spacemonkey]

In Hong Kong things seemed fairly well contained, but then an influx of imported cases is threatening community outbreak in something of a new 'wave':

Read on Twitter

Late last week, as Hong Kong reported a spike of new coronavirus cases, Sean Brown was alarmed to see a group of foreign families board a local bus without wearing the surgical masks worn by nearly everyone else in the city.

Brown [...] quickly assessed the unmasked foreigners as recent returnees -- part of the wide swath of wealthy expats who left Hong Kong in the early days of the outbreak, only to return when the disease spread around the world.
[...]
Until last week, many in Hong Kong, Singapore and even China assumed the worst had passed. Hong Kong had closed schools and community facilities and ordered civil servants to work from home beginning in late January. Less than 10 days ago, officials felt confident enough to invite city workers back to their offices and to reopen some libraries and public spaces.

Then, on Friday, the city registered a single-day record of 48 confirmed cases, the majority of them imported. Officials continue to report quarantine violations, in spite of the threat of up to six months in prison and fines of HK$25,000 ($3,200).

[LKN]

I think this entire idea that it's "social distancing vs the economy" is a completely false choice.

If this virus gets out of control it's going to crash the economy anyways. In either case we'll need a massive stimulus package... one just comes with a lot more dead bodies.

[Triples333]

That's the entire point of a stimulus package. The government can just pay everyone who is not working. No one will starve - it's a purely political problem with a fairly straightforward solution.

It's highly ignorant to assume that the government can simply float the entirety of the American people for an unforeseen amount of time and all will be fine. It can work as a very short term fix, but if it goes on and they simply print money out of the sky to keep the country going, the ultimate result is hyper-inflation and a complete collapse of the American dollar - and in effect the American economy. Long story short: No more "America" as you knew it.

Your strawman is on fire.

I never said that it would be indefinite... but it absolutely could work for an 8-12 week period.

You probably shouldn't call me ignorant when you clearly don't even understand the basics of fiat currency. There will be no hyper-inflation; that only happens if your debt is denominated in foreign currency. You are parroting the same nonsense that has continually disproven over the last 30 years.

We are engaged in massive deficit spending right now, yet the dollar is stronger than ever and treasuries were negative the other day.

I said, "unforeseen", not "infinite". You indicated no time-table, and yet I am the one making a strawman? Granted you did not read my last post either (or acknowledge when I spelled it out for you again).

You are being incredibly short sighted. What exactly do you think will happen as the dollar begins to lose it's value relative to a stronger currency (this could be the won, yen, Euro, Bitcoin, etc)? People look to invest their dollars into that other currency, and that is where the foundation of hyper-inflation begins. That WILL eventually occur if an unprecedented amount of money is pumped into the American economy and the dollar begins to lose value to the nations and currencies that withstood this better. Not to mention the fact that there is no world where they can bail out the innumerable small to mid-size businesses that will fail the longer the shutdown incurs. "You are parroting the same nonsense of the past 30 years" you say. What in the world are you talking about dude? Nothing like this has ever occurred in our lifetimes, there is nothing to look back on to find a precedent for this economically or otherwise.

Once again, it is PARAMOUNT that they get the production and distribution lines of all necessary medical equipment and testing to widespread and appropriate use ASAP. That needs to be objective #1 for the government (as well as all local governments extending leniency moratoriums for rent and mortgage payments - which some have done). But do not for a second think that if we do not get on top of this ASAP and the American people go out of work for >3 months while businesses are forced to close their doors for good across America that the pain will not last for longer than most of these Covid patients (who make it out) will be alive. It's a complex issue, period. And I will leave it at that.

[mtron929]

In Hong Kong things seemed fairly well contained, but then an influx of imported cases is threatening community outbreak in something of a new 'wave':

Read on Twitter

Late last week, as Hong Kong reported a spike of new coronavirus cases, Sean Brown was alarmed to see a group of foreign families board a local bus without wearing the surgical masks worn by nearly everyone else in the city.

Brown [...] quickly assessed the unmasked foreigners as recent returnees -- part of the wide swath of wealthy expats who left Hong Kong in the early days of the outbreak, only to return when the disease spread around the world.
[...]
Until last week, many in Hong Kong, Singapore and even China assumed the worst had passed. Hong Kong had closed schools and community facilities and ordered civil servants to work from home beginning in late January. Less than 10 days ago, officials felt confident enough to invite city workers back to their offices and to reopen some libraries and public spaces.

Then, on Friday, the city registered a single-day record of 48 confirmed cases, the majority of them imported. Officials continue to report quarantine violations, in spite of the threat of up to six months in prison and fines of HK$25,000 ($3,200).

I think inevitably, all the countries need to resort to tracking the outbreaks and tracking individual cases and relaying that information to everyone within the vicinity. That is the only way to minimize the 2nd/3rd waves that will inevitably arise even if the first wave becomes contained.

[Optimus_Steel]

That's nice, this guy cares about his trading of goods for money more than his life.

Not everyone is the same, most people only work so they can live a life.

I think I have a word other than "nice" to describe it. I'm kind of amazed he even said it, then again I guess I shouldn't be. Between this and the FL governor with the weird blowdryer thing I'm losing what little belief in humanity I had anymore.

I'm not surprised. Many people seem to value money over their own life. I don't know if they are brainwashed or what, I've known people like this. It's just misguided, it's more disturbing that he seems to think he's close circle of weirdos are somehow indicative of what most think.

Idk if that guy has any grandchildren but how much you want to bet if someone had him make that choice he would say F' no. Greed and selfishness. "Other people fine but me....not me..."

[Richfield]

The elderly and the poor are getting sicker and dying more.

But the rich still aren't rich enough.

Everybody get back to work!!

Are you really that stupid that you don't know a tanked economy will negatively affect all classes? Poor, middle class, rich. Doesn't matter. If the economy goes under we are all screwed.

If anything, it's the rich that can afford for the economy to go on pause for a while since they have savings and don't depend on a pay check.

I'm not saying we should rush anything and risk lives unnecessarily, but your reasoning is terrible.

Very disingenuous logic, if you know the numbers and the facts and the rates and the trends.

Some of that you said is true, fighting this the right way will affect all classes. But as you just said, "the rich that can afford for the economy to go on pause for a while since they have savings and don't depend on a pay check". You just need to save the economy for who then, the working class and elderly? By marching them into certain illness and death sooner than later?

What you've chosen to omit from what you're selling is the real crime. Thats the pathetic part of your argument, and where the con lays. It's an abhorrent suggestion you're alluding to.

Last, you suggesting I'm "stupid" right off the bat means I said something you probably don't want to hear or admit to, if intelligence is in question here keep in mind I might feel the same way about you. So keep that in mind with the name calling, which is immature as well. You can attack the position, but once you attack the person it appears emotional and denialistic, which means I must have struck a personal nerve. Maybe all this is too much for you to deal with, but you don't need to take it out on strangers on the internet.

[LKN]

It's highly ignorant to assume that the government can simply float the entirety of the American people for an unforeseen amount of time and all will be fine. It can work as a very short term fix, but if it goes on and they simply print money out of the sky to keep the country going, the ultimate result is hyper-inflation and a complete collapse of the American dollar - and in effect the American economy. Long story short: No more "America" as you knew it.

Your strawman is on fire.

I never said that it would be indefinite... but it absolutely could work for an 8-12 week period.

You probably shouldn't call me ignorant when you clearly don't even understand the basics of fiat currency. There will be no hyper-inflation; that only happens if your debt is denominated in foreign currency. You are parroting the same nonsense that has continually disproven over the last 30 years.

We are engaged in massive deficit spending right now, yet the dollar is stronger than ever and treasuries were negative the other day.

I said, "unforeseen", not "infinite". You indicated no time-table, and yet I am the one making a strawman? Granted you did not read my last post either (or acknowledge when I spelled it out for you again).

You are incredibly short sighted. What exactly do you think will happen as the dollar begins to lose it's value relative to a stronger currency (this could be the won, yen, Euro, Bitcoin, etc)? People look to invest their dollars into that other currency, and that is where the foundation of hyper-inflation begins. That WILL eventually occur if an unprecedented amount of money is pumped into the American economy and the dollar begins to lose value to the nations and currencies that withstood this better. Not to mention the fact that there is no world where they can bail out the innumerable small to mid-size businesses that will fail the longer the shutdown incurs. "You are parroting the same nonsense of the past 30 years" you say. What in the world are you talking about dude? Nothing like this has ever occurred in our lifetimes, there is nothing to look back on to find a precedent for this economically or otherwise.

Once again, it is PARAMOUNT that they get the production and distribution lines of all necessary medical equipment and testing to widespread and appropriate use ASAP. That needs to be objective #1 for the government (as well as all local governments extending leniency moratoriums for rent and mortgage payments - which some have done). But do not for a second think that if we do not get on top of this ASAP and the American people go out of work for >3 months while businesses are forced to close their doors for good across America that the pain will not last for longer than most of these Covid patients (who make it out) will be alive. It's a complex issue, period. And I will leave it at that.

Your statements about hyper-inflation are just not correct (go look at how strong the dollar is right now in the face of massive deficit spending). In your defense, most people believe a lot of silly things about the debt/deficit because politicians have been lying to them for decades.

If you don't believe me I invite you to observe how the massive stimulus package that is about to get passed (it will likely be over 2 trillion dollars) doesn't end up causing any significant inflation.

I don't think we actually disagree on a bunch of the other stuff anyways anyways.... so I'll leave it at that. Cheers.

[Flash4thewin]

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Causation or correlation? Many obese people are diabetic or hypertensive.

Sent from my LM-Q710(FGN) using RealGM mobile app

I wonder what percentage of people are considered overweight? Moreover, it might be the case that overweight people tend to not care about their health (in general) as others and as such, would not practice social distancing as much.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/most-obese-states-in-us

So the most obese states are:

1. West Virginia
2. Mississippi
3. Oklahoma
4. Iowa
5. Alabama
6. Louisiana
7. Arkansas
8. Kentucky
9. Alaska
10. South Carolina

Looks like if the theory is right they are going to get hit catastrophically. Its a good thing those states are ready and prepared right?

[sfernald]

The USA is actually going to surpass the total number of (reported) cases in China in a couple days. We will be over 100K reported cases in 3-4 days, and we will be over a million cases in the USA alone within a couple weeks if more widespread testing becomes enacted before businesses are allowed to open (they may strategically limit the testing to keep this number artificially low so people go back to work regardless). It's an interesting game the government is playing right now.

Prediction:
I’m betting Trump demands the counts stop before we get higher than China cause we can’t have that you know.

[OkcSinceSGA]

Read on Twitter

Sad

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