JoeBarryCarol wrote:HotelVitale wrote:JoeBarryCarol wrote:
Seems like fair value to me.
Levert was the 20th pick in the draft and he now should be in the prime of his career in a position Cleveland needs now.
Indiana will probably get a mid-to-late 20's pick and an early-to-mid 30's pick in this coming draft. They probably have a 50/50 chance of drafting a player with those assets who in a few years will be equal or better to Levert.
Hmm statistically speaking I don’t think the chances of getting someone as good as Levert with a mid to late pick and a mid to late 30s pick are anywhere close to 50/50. If that were the case—and you could plan on getting a solid starter with your #27 pick and a 2nd rounder you bought at any time—picks would be far more valuable and team construction would look way different. Don’t have time to look it up but my guess is those odds are at least half that, maybe less.
You could be right - odds might be lower than 50% I honestly don't know but the Pacers did draft him with the 20th pick.
The Pacers either get two rolls of the dice in the 20-35 draft range or maybe they can find someone who will trade down with them and they use those picks to move up or acquire a 2nd year player or something.
Either way, I think the trade was reasonably fair and the Pacers need to rebuild and clearly need future picks rather than LeVert.
I think the value is fine too, but not because the Pacers can just replace Levert with that pick. I haven't looked at these calculations in years but I think there's something like a 1-in-6 chance you get a solid starter with a pick in the 20s; in other words, Levert wasn't a regular/solid #20 pick but rather a very unusually successful one.
Also it shouldn't matter at all where a player was picked, no one has that in mind when thinking about trade value. Quickly starts to become clearer who's gonna translate and who won't, and even a few months into the season players drafted in the 20s are sometimes more valuable than top-10 picks. Within about 2 seasons it's totally irrelvant, only reason it matters is if folks are still holding out for a big upside guy's potential being realized. Levert isn't less valuable because he was a #20 pick anymore than Giannis or Gobert or others taken out of the lotto are.
