2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 LA Lakers vs #6 Minnesota Timberwolves (MIN leads 1-0)

[Kobe187]

Finney-Smith +269
Doncic +176 (28 gp)
Hachimura +158
Reeves +195
Hayes +86
Vanderbilt +35
Vincent +47
L. James -53

James has to play with more consistent effort especially defensively or come off the bench in the playoffs, he’s the Lakers weakest link.

[User9992]

Finney-Smith +269
Doncic +176 (28 gp)
Hachimura +158
Reeves +195
Hayes +86
Vanderbilt +35
Vincent +47
L. James -53

James has to play with more consistent effort especially defensively or come off the bench in the playoffs, he’s the Lakers weakest link.

Is it this season Plus Minus?

[Kobe187]

Finney-Smith +269
Doncic +176 (28 gp)
Hachimura +158
Reeves +195
Hayes +86
Vanderbilt +35
Vincent +47
L. James -53

James has to play with more consistent effort especially defensively or come off the bench in the playoffs, he’s the Lakers weakest link.

Is it this season Plus Minus?

Yeah

[Kobe187]

Timberwolves play better without Rudy imo, they’re quicker and more athletic, Rudy is too slow defensively and clogs up the paint offensively. Should be a great series.

[User9992]

Finney-Smith +269
Doncic +176 (28 gp)
Hachimura +158
Reeves +195
Hayes +86
Vanderbilt +35
Vincent +47
L. James -53

James has to play with more consistent effort especially defensively or come off the bench in the playoffs, he’s the Lakers weakest link.

Is it this season Plus Minus?

Yeah

Luka has insane amount + despite playing such small amount of games with Lakers

[ILC]

That didn't result in more wins in RS, why should in playoffs?

Well, to be fair, they both virtually have the same regular season record.

They shouldn't have if 1 is better in offense and D.

All this regular stats means 0 in those series. You can have the best D in the league, last year's Wolves, and it doesn't help much, if you can't stop 2 best players of opponents, last year's Wolves again.

Wolves did not lose last year to the Mavs because they couldn't stop them defensively. They lost because they couldn't execute offensively and had an awful offense overall. G2 when Luka hit the winner over Gobert Wolves led by 5 with a minute left and had 2 possessions to extend the lead and Ant turned it over both times without being doubled. Rudy also stopped Luka on a switch the possession before the winner, so it's not like they couldn't get the stops, but offensive execution and maturity just was not there in the clutch and it being combined with an awful offense overall before the clutch they were dead in the water.

Yes, they're still having issues in the clutch, but Ant is better and they're also playing a much worse team defensively this time around and have a top 10 offense now with still a good enough defense.

It'll be a good and long series, but it has nothing to do with the Mavs last year just because Luka is playing again.

[Bob8]

Is it this season Plus Minus?

Yeah

Luka has insane amount of being + despite playing such small amount of games.

Yes, if we look at Lakers on/off court numbers since Luka started playing 11.2.25, the difference is insane between him playing and not playing.

Lakers offensive rtg is 120 with Luka on and 105.5 with Luka off.
Defensive rtg is 111.5 with Luka on and 114.8 with Luka off.

That gives Luka + 17.7 net on/off rtg. In the same period AR's net rtg is + 4.7 and LeBron's - 4.2.

It would be crucial for Wolves to win big minutes Luka is not playing. I expect Luka to play 40+ minutes, so hopefully Lakers can survive that period.

[ILC]

Luka’s gonna hunt Gobert on defense and Gobert will be unplayable in the playoffs…again like he’s been for every playoffs he’s been a part of.

bull. Wolves won the Gobert minutes last year against the Mavs, they lost all the other ones without him.

[Bob8]

Well, to be fair, they both virtually have the same regular season record.

They shouldn't have if 1 is better in offense and D.

All this regular stats means 0 in those series. You can have the best D in the league, last year's Wolves, and it doesn't help much, if you can't stop 2 best players of opponents, last year's Wolves again.

Wolves did not lose last year to the Mavs because they couldn't stop them defensively. They lost because they couldn't execute offensively and had an awful offense overall. G2 when Luka hit the winner over Gobert Wolves led by 5 with a minute left and had 2 possessions to extend the lead and Ant turned it over both times without being doubled. Rudy also stopped Luka on a switch the possession before the winner, so it's not like they couldn't get the stops, but offensive execution and maturity just was not there in the clutch and it being combined with an awful offense overall before the clutch they were dead in the water.

Yes, they're still having issues in the clutch, but Ant is better and they're also playing a much worse team defensively this time around and have a top 10 offense now with still a good enough defense.

It'll be a good and long series, but it has nothing to do with the Mavs last year just because Luka is playing again.

Mavs had 118.3 offensive rtg in that series, it's hard to win in playoffs, if opponent is playing that good in offense. Wolves kept Denver under 110 offensive rtg. For example Celtics had 109.2 offensive rtg and everyone blame Luka for losing because he was not good enough in D.

Lakers game in offensive side will be very similar to Mavs, less lobs, although Haynes has become dunking machine after Luka's arrival and even more wide open 3s with Lakers playing small. Luka will try to break down D and score or assist. If you take the ball out off his hands you have AR, somewhat similar to Kyrie and LeBron, player that Mavs didn't have. I can't see Wolves stopping Lakers in D. They will need to score a lot to win.

[durden_tyler]

Timberwolves play better without Rudy imo, they’re quicker and more athletic, Rudy is too slow defensively and clogs up the paint offensively. Should be a great series.

There are stretches when he can contribute (on both ends). That said, it's on the coaches to pull the Rudy plug when he's playing bad (no confidence on offense and/or lost on defense)... That to me will be the key thing here. It's a series so there are a bunch of stretches when he can be a positive factor but if and when the Lakers abuse him, just go to the Reid-Randle frontcourt and take it from there.

[Mavrelous]

Luka’s gonna hunt Gobert on defense and Gobert will be unplayable in the playoffs…again like he’s been for every playoffs he’s been a part of.

bull. Wolves won the Gobert minutes last year against the Mavs, they lost all the other ones without him.

Wolves lost the Gobert minutes by 16 last year against the Mavs.
They did win his minutes the 1st 2 games in Minny, but not the entire series.

Rudy Gobert being played off the floor is a false narrative that originates from bad optics (Clippers going small in 21, Maxi Kleber going nuts from 3 in 22 and Luka famous shot) that aren't backed by stats, but part of ANT clutch struggles is having to play next to 2 weak offensive players in Gobert and McDaniels who can be helped off of.

[Bob8]

Luka’s gonna hunt Gobert on defense and Gobert will be unplayable in the playoffs…again like he’s been for every playoffs he’s been a part of.

bull. Wolves won the Gobert minutes last year against the Mavs, they lost all the other ones without him.

Wolves lost the Gobert minutes by 16 last year against the Mavs.
They did win his minutes the 1st 2 games in Minny, but not the entire series.

Rudy Gobert being played off the floor is a false narrative that originates from bad optics (Clippers going small in 21, Maxi Kleber going nuts from 3 in 22 and Luka famous shot) that aren't backed by stats, but part of ANT clutch struggles is having to play next to 2 weak offensive players in Gobert and McDaniels who can be helped off of.

I see Gobert problem differently. He must be extremely dominant in D to earn to play, because he's liability in offense. Lakers will double Ant and won't care, who's on Gobert. That's why I believe Clippers would be much more difficult opponent, because you can't treated Zubac like that.

The question is can Gobert be dominant against Lakers offense? I doubt it, even when Hayes will be in, Luka will just target him in pick&roll. He can be much more effective when Luka sits. I would play him all minutes, when Luka is out.

[Bob8]

Luka’s gonna hunt Gobert on defense and Gobert will be unplayable in the playoffs…again like he’s been for every playoffs he’s been a part of.

bull. Wolves won the Gobert minutes last year against the Mavs, they lost all the other ones without him.

Wolves had 116.3 def rtg with Gobert on and 117.1 with Gobert off against Mavs. So yes, D was better with him, but the difference was not what you expect from top defensive player in the league, Mavs were still scoring too much for playoffs.

[TheGOATRises007]

The Wolves absolutely have to split in LA.

They can't afford to go down 2-0.

[thinktank]

Lakers fans and others saying Gobert can't guard 5 out.

Well, Lakers biggest weakness is center. I.e. Wolves can pound Lakers inside with our size (Gobert, Randle, Naz, McDaniels), and we can play Randle / Naz when Lakers try 5-Out.

Sure you can, the question is if that lineup can have 125 offensive rtg.

In the end basketball is simple, you have to score more than other team. That's why teams are rather shooting 3s nowadays.

Lakers defense sucks. Wolves offense is peaking.

[thinktank]

Luka’s gonna hunt Gobert on defense and Gobert will be unplayable in the playoffs…again like he’s been for every playoffs he’s been a part of.

He just won two series last year.

You’re braindead.

Personal attacks are not allowed. Disagree with the post but don't insult the poster. -b

[thinktank]

What I take away from this thread is Bob8 has no life.

Put him on foe and half the posts are gone. Viola!

Don't insult people. The whole point of ignoring someone is to ignore them. The series hasn't even started yet, let's be adults please. -b

[DreamTeam09]

Wolves in 6, Lakers don't match up well, too small.

[Shaka_Zulu]

As someone who watches every Wolves game and pretty much all Lakers games since Luka trade (he is fun), gotta say no post in this thread perfectly summarises the prelude of this series better then this:

Both of these teams can be really good.

- Lakers have Doncic. James. Reaves. And complementary role players who know their roles. Experience. Star power. Homecourt.
- As noted, the Wolves are ranked #8 on offense. #6 on defense. Historically, top 10 ratings mean you're a legit playoff team... only it's rare for one to be seeded 6th. Only OKC, CLE and BOS are the other teams with top 10 rankings in both... #1 and #2 seeds.

Rotations
Of course, star power sells. And often wins in the NBA. And it might be that simple for the Lakers like it was last year for the Mavericks. But let's say other players besides the stars matter...

Both teams are looking at 8-man rotations.

- James
- Doncic
- Reaves
- Hachimura
- Hayes
....
Finney-Smith
Vincent
Vanderbilt

vs.

- Edwards
- Randle
- McDaniels
- Gobert
- Conley
....
Divincenzo
Naz Reid
Alexander-Walker

Minnesota has the deeper team. It can be argued that they have the three best bench guys in the series. They have to win that matchup significantly. Some recent stats indicate the Wolves have been more effective with Edwards on the bench. For those wondering who can score other than Edwards... basically everyone other than Conley.

______________________

A lot of people talking about the Gobert matchup. It's not ideal for him. But I disagree a bit about how... I think we might see it more on offense.

Defensively, despite the very publicized Doncic game winner... Gobert has been decent (or even good) defending the perimeter. Offensively, Edwards gets blitzed more than anyone else in the NBA. What can Gobert do with the ball off the short roll? What can he do with a size advantage in the post? If he can't take advantage of it... his defensive value is compromised. So we'd see more of Naz Reid.

And Reid is a worse defender everywhere on the court compared to Rudy Gobert.

_______________________

Jaden McDaniels started to make the leap later in the year when Randle and Divincenzo were out injured. After only one double-double last year, McDaniels had 10 double-doubles this season... most of them during that stretch when he played more at the 4.

He'll be back to the 3 and guarding the perimeter more vs. the Lakers. With Randle and Divincezo returning... McDaniels has gone silent. After averaging about 15/8/3 for 20 games... he's down to 9/4/1 over the past 10 games with everyone back in the mix.

He can still be impactful defensively, but how he's officiated matters. A LOT. He's been foul prone in his career, so he'll have to play smart and composed. Early foul trouble will be an issue.

_________________________

Minnesota's season was remarkable in that they played a lot of close games... and lost most of them. The late-game clutch offense has been very poor, ranking near the very bottom of the league.

In a close game, I think most people trust the Lakers... and James and Doncic more than anything the Timberwolves can put out there... with good reason.

_________________________

The other interesting thing about the Wolves this season is the tendency to lose to terrible teams. Losing to very bad teams... and teams without most of its starters playing... has been a constant this season. It cost them a higher seed and a better matchup.

No way I'd vote against James and Doncic (and even Reaves) in a close game down the stretch. A lot of it might be as simple as composure. How will Edwards, McDaniels, et al react to a bad call or two in these games?

[TravisScott55]

I hope Wolves fans aren't looking at Randle's playoff numbers