coldgrip1 wrote:(last season)
When Ellis scored less than 20, Warriors were 2-17.
When Ellis scored 30 or more, Warriors were 16-5. In 19 of the 21 games, he played at least 42 minutes.
This dispells the myth that the Warriors are a better team when Ellis plays 6th-man type minutes or off the floor altogether. This team goes as he goes. Perhaps past coaches saw this and ran him into the ground trying to save their job.
Actually, I think that is basically the proof of what I said. Ellis is inconsistent, that leads to such a big variance in his scoring output. And it should be obviously that a team will go just as far as the 1st option can carry them. A more consistent 1st option would have a fewer amount of bad scoring games, while probably a lesser amount of big scoring nights. You expect basically a gaussian distribution while for Ellis the scoring output is more equally distributed. More consistency by the 1st option will lead to more wins for a team. That is something we can prove mathematically, btw.
For a 6th man type player it is different. Here applies the Bell curve, which means bigger swings will push a team more often to the win than more consistency, especially for teams closer to the average. For great teams that becomes usually less important due to the fact that they usually have better depth and can compensate a bad night by one of the bench players more easily.
For a couple of players you can see that they are performing better in wins, but also that their teams are losing when they are playing bad. BUT those players most times have clearly less bad games, they are showing less variance and are overall in average better than Ellis.
coldgrip1 wrote:This also tells me that the main issue with the Warriors is the lack of talent on the roster, not an issue with Monta playing heavy minutes. When Monta didn't produce, whether due to reduced minutes or a bad shooting night, the Warriors simply didn't have enough talent to make up for it.
It is a mixture of both. The talent on the Warriors isn't great, and the talent distribution is also somewhat questionable (not good enough defenders, small backcourt, etc.). As I said, the Warriors can't replace Ellis' minutes really with somewhat better, but that doesn't make Ellis a better player or him more worthy of being an All-Star.
Ellis with less minutes would likely become a bit more consistent on offense, but I suspect his defense would improve cleary with less offensive responsibilities, that would improve his overall impact. And in the end I see him adding the same value to the Warriors in less time, which is the very definition of being more efficient. Now, someone else needs to fill the remaining minutes and in the end an average player would do the trick already. Imagine: The Warriors are starting with Curry-D. Wright-Rush and can use Ellis for either of those 3 players as sub. They can still play Ellis 30 minutes per game, no problem. And the real issue with the minutes would come to the wing spot. They would need someone to step in for 10 more minutes, neither D. Wright nor Rush can provide that. Maybe they thought Klay Thompson could be the guy, but whatever. The point is that Curry with those players is forming a better team, while Ellis would face more tired starters or even 2nd unit players more often, while being able to spend more energy on defense. But well, that also depends on the willingness of those players to accept certain roles.
But overall it would be best, if the Warriors had a bigger ball handler next to Ellis. That would give the opportunity to let Ellis work of the ball, which he can do pretty good. Use him as cutter or end of possessions iso-player, if the plays are not working. Use Ellis more to his strength. I don't see playmaking as his strength. He can do it a bit, but he shouldn't be forced to do it as often as he is doing it right now.
coldgrip1 wrote:Having said that, I agree that Ellis' minutes need to be brought down to about 32-35. It's a good strike of balance where he can still produce on offense and improve his defense circa 2007-2008 level.
Yeah, that's it. He would likely improve his efficiency and could still score close to 20 ppg. Much better for the team and Ellis would likely be seen as a better player by a lot of people (despite the fact that he is still the same player, but we saw that happen with Jamal Crawford, who is also better suited as a 6th man).
if you could, josh smith would be 1st team all-nba and deng would be out of the league
