DCasey91 wrote:10giz wrote:I just watched every Evan Mobley play so far this year and wrote up a pretty detailed post in case anybody wants to read it
He's a very good prospect with great IQ, great defensive instincts, good mobility and good passing/vision. He absolutely has the tools to develop into a potential all start
His game right now looks good in the box score but after doing some digging, he is nowhere near as impactful as any article or analyst is saying.
1. He has shown absolutely no offensive game. He's hit 6 jump shots, 4 of which were wide open and 2 were on the corner of the key over smaller players. His offensive game right now is basically that of an energy/hustle big. Everything's a dunk or alley and 75% of his FGs have been assisted. This is a stark contrast to Barnes for example, who's only had 30% of his buckets assisted and has show he can score at almost every level (although, his outside shot needs a lot of work too). Right now Mobley has the most limited offensive game of all the top rookies so far.
2. I would go as far as to say outside of his defensive contributions, which are almost exclusively in a help defence scenario or guards being led into or driving directly into him, as well as his willingness and ability to make quick, decisive passes, the rest of his game is quite unrefined and underdeveloped.
3. He has and will get blocked (7 times already) and stripped very easily as evidenced by his 15 lost balls already which is 7th in the league. He can barely back down SFs and can't really take people off the dribble as he doesn't have a the strength and force to turn the corner aggressively. He is not explosive, does not have pogo like hops, and most of all doesn't have sheer aggressiveness that can compensate.
4. Another big flaw is that although he's light on his feet, he can never really dig his feels in to allow for strong movements and pivots, something KG was elite at. Anybody who grew up a fan of KG practiced his post up, shimmy, turn and fade thousands of times and it was all in making sure to plant your feet hard. Ties back into the lower body strength this is something he'll definitely be able to improve. Until then though he will struggle with physicality and committing fouls too.
5. I just haven't seen a single element of his game that stands out as great or elite. His blocks have been nice but to be honest, the vast majority of them are either offensive players taking awful drives or him just jumping when the ball is near the rim. He has a good stride and can recover well if his man is in the right spot or angle but he is absolutely not someone who can fly around the floor on defence. [/b]
If this is what people are citing as his incredible defence, 6. Haliburton and Thybulle are averaging more blocks. Al Horford is averaging more than double his blocks. People who think blocks and steals = good defence have probably never played basketball extensively understand defensive concepts. Don't get me wrong his presence absolutely can affect the offence but the impact is usually only limited to the ball being next to him.
I know people are excited about him as a prospect and I am too but people need to set some realistic short term expectations as he needs a lot of development.
7. I don't see a single reason or piece of evidence that shows he's the number one rookie.
Thank you for the time on your assessment of Mobley, I’m one of his biggest fans and there is some stuff here that I agree with but also stuff that I don’t. I would like an expanded explanation on bolded statements that I disagree with if you don’t mind?
1.
As pertains to the offensive game I assume self creating? That I can agree with. Passivity and the ability to score by himself is on a lower level
But:
He is very comfortable as a roll man/lob/pass finish, putbacks (which he does by himself contested/uncontested) and high low action from big to big. That in of itself once the efficiency comes already puts him at around 10 or 10+ points per night.
2. Doesn’t that then leave a great base to work from in the future? The unrefined parts in some areas (shooting from range, good level scoring package at his apex) to me is the cherry not the the cake if you catch my drift. Compared to other Big rookies around the same age he’s doing fine.
3. This part I agree about getting stripped. Needs to be more aware of players around him, but once again it’s very early into his career and he’s playing a ton of minutes playing an ultra important job on one side of the ball. I agree his ball security isn’t top notch but his awareness has to waiver throughout a game. Besides Wagner/Barnes Mobley is easily 3rd on keeping up to scratch in a game. Rookies go through the motions it’s not an excuse but I’ve seen him twice now struggle to finish off a quarter. Reason being: The coach can’t wait to bring him on again. Cavs with Mobley on the court vs off it is a stark difference. I’m sure you realize this
4. Once again that’s because he’s a young big. I think his body will grow into a pre juiced Ayton. now Ayton has more trickery closer to the rim because he has a sweet jumper but isn’t the facilitator that Mobley is. He may lack core strength now but reps, physical maturity and conditioning will all come. Also being light on your feet is the functionality aspect. That’s one area I rate so highly about him. Sloppy feet for any player caps your ceiling. It’s a very overlooked part of Sports. People with twinkle toes on the field tend to do extremely well.
5. Cmon now, people here love Mobley because we haven’t seen a defensive big this great since god knows when straight off the rip. Imagine a floor of 14/8/2.5/2/1 and being an All NBA/DPOY defender. That’s basically his base level.
6. Yes blocks don’t equal being a great defender, but Mobley is a great defender don’t think anyone can argue it otherwise. He’s special going from point A to point B, then back to A with utmost economy. I mean vet bigs don’t move like this let alone with verticality/defensive skill and low blocking fouls. To contest that many shots so far screams elite defensive IQ.
7. Look at the top 3 picks. Green can’t play defense, low level facilitator/foul drawer and is very streaky, frame is questionable and also isn’t he more raw than Mobley is?. Cade has his own warts (below average athleticism, shot trajectory, inside game, turnover economy, size now being a big guard rather than a premium wing).
All in all out of the three (Barnes wasn’t in convo for number one let’s be realistic) Mobley has very easily an argument to be picked first.
EDIT - Got some extra time so let me retort as concisely as I can.1-I would not expect someone of his dimensions and current game to be creating offence like that. I'm always about setting proper expectations and working up from there. But thus far, all of his points have been under the rim, I know offence isn't even what's exciting about him although I agree, which is why dubbed him like - a nuclear energy big because he scores in those ways but he does them with far more fluidity. Developing a reliable shot will be crucial though - unless we are expecting something like a Gobert type offensive game but with far more...butter, if you catch my drift. I just think he needs to expand it ideally sooner because with his weight/strenght I think some of his roll work/entries/cuts might be schemed out by strong players who body him. More on that.
2 - Defence wins championships. Period. Offence is easy to find. I also love his passing. Much better, FAR better than I expected. More than ability, I love willingness and assertiveness. So far arguably my favourite trait about this kid is hs eyes. You can see him use his vision almost like Marc Gasol. It's not understated, you see his head twist, turn, and constantly follow the ball. Admittedly I was always like this myself, eyes glued to the ball waiting to make an adjustment. So as a base - in terms of what I look for in a player, those two things are the ideal. Copacetic.
3 - The clips I watched showed that whenever somebody bodied him close, even a smaller defender, it absolutely impacted him even close to the rim. Whether the ball would slip out or, if someone even pushed their torso against his as he shot from the paint, that contact literally affected his trajectory. Again, this is his body, he's weak and that's ok he will absolutely improve that. More than that is his hands. He doesn't have massive mitts as it is and I've seen countless times a hard swipe or unseen foul completely knock the ball out. Strong hands/grip are essential for a player like him and if Ii were game planning for him, especially a team like the raptors who lead the league by far in steals and deflections, I would be swarming him constantly as he wouldn't have the power to fight though so either he'd have to pass out quick or risk it. I'd love to see him start holding the ball up HIGH. Great habit to build if you have weaker hands. Makes it easier to pass and makes it more likely opponent will foul when reaching. Also ideal position for a quick pass to a cutter. Buddy if I were his coach he'd never leave the floor. Don't forget - I was a defensive playmaking big man myself. Obviously not a pro, or even semi, but my mind is still geared towards all of those habits.
4 - This one I'm a bit concerned. Usually to have a very strong base planted with feet, requires a wider stance and his body is more of a pencil. If you watch someone try to take him off the dribble, it almost looks like he's on skates even though he's always able to recover. Luckily for him his length allows him to limit the angles at which they can usually take advantage of it but this might be something harder to fix. If you look at bigs like KP, JV, Gobert...they all had a wider base with heavier and stronger lower bodes. His legs look like bigger versions of Chris Boucher. Again he's still young and growing so I can't say any of this for sure but I believe it will be an important factor in his development. He's like a beautiful, thin tree that bends with the wind lol.
5 - Listen this one I'll claim bias. I've always been a defence first guy and I always pay very close attention to the nuances of defenders. I reserve the right on this one but will concede it's just my opinion. Personally I'm far more impressed by the defence of Barnes who has the length and ability to challenge shots like Mobley but has the coordination, power, and speed to be able to quite literally pick up point guards full court. OG is my favourite player as an FYI because I find his package of physicals, defence and IQ the most unique in the league. Would love for you to watch some defensive tape of Barnes would love your opinion. So this one we can toss aside.
6 - Here we disagree. If who I'm defending isn't even able to put up a shot, to me that's ideal. Neutralize and suppress. Limit FGAs. Take them out of the game mentally and kinetically. Re: gong Point A to Point B, I'll PM you a video clip I want your opinion on. He is a great defender. I won't argue. But the most important defence in this league for winning is to be able to pick up the big wings of the league that hit the big shots in late in games. I put a premium on that above all else. In the end, I want the best option to guard the best players in the most important moments when I know they're taking the shot. Again this is just how I view modern basketball as I don't think any elite interior defender no matter how good can lead their team to a title. Unless we're talking a Bam type but then we're talking bout a different body type entirely. To me, he's the ideal C defensively, just in terms of the physicals though. This is why I value OG and hopefully Barnes so much. How many prime defenders are there at that size and strength who have the IQ and discipline. They're nearly non-existent. Again, I put the highest value on positional scarcity of a specific type of skillset. Just me.
7 - Green...lol. No thanks. Scoring is the cheapest skill. Unless it's attached to someone big enough, strong enough, and fast enough to overcome any defender (Giannis, Lebron, Kawhi, KD, etc...) - again leads to why I put the most value on the guys who match their size but are guys who can play elite D all game long. The current NBA formula IMO will be even more pronounced with the cut down on fouls. Those big wings will be even more relied upon to get those big key buckets. Without the benefit of extra FTs, they will do everything they can tom switch on to weaker matchups but if there are no weaker matchups, they're going against the hardest possible defender and that's the formula I'd wanna build around.
In the end, I'm the kinda guy who thinks you won't win a title based around an Embiid, Gobert or KAT or the like. They may get in, go far but in the end, when everything locks down and it goes bucket for bucket, guys like that will not be able to get it done. Not only does their body take a greater toll late in the season but they are more susceptible to fatigue, particularly if pressed by strong atehtlc defenders. There may always be exceptions of course (GSW, Dirk (**** Miami)) but until all those guys retire, and let's keep in mind they're all already 31-33+, I'm of the opinion that if someone mentions the term elite defender - I expect someone who can guard the perimeter better than any with strength, speed, length, discipline and calculated aggression.
Sorry I wrote this all off the top of my head train of thought style so if anything doesn't make sense or sounds stupid, please highlight so I can adjust or elaborate.
Just for fun - let's compare swords. What do you see?
