2022-23 NBA MVP Discussion (Pt.1)

[AussieBuck]

Seems to me the DPOY for Giannis is a solid bet.
He seems more engaged than before on that end?

Nope, we're just not playing Pat Connaughton as part of a three man big rotation with Giannis and Portis and we aren't playing non-NBA PGs this season. Once Nwora is ejected from the rotation, everyone in the rotation is a guy who knows what he's doing and is big enough to play their role. That means Giannis is creating havoc instead of running around cleaning up messes.

[iggymcfrack]

Its Giannis by a large margin right nwo.

Exactly this. Huge gap between him and the rest of the league right now. On pace to set the PER record, insane defensive counterpart stats, a +14 net rating for his team when he’s on the floor, and an undefeated record. What more could you want? Obviously anything can happen 7 games in, but he’s lapping the field so far.

[zonedefense]

Its Giannis by a large margin right nwo.

Exactly this. Huge gap between him and the rest of the league right now. On pace to set the PER record, insane defensive counterpart stats, a +14 net rating for his team when he’s on the floor, and an undefeated record. What more could you want? Obviously anything can happen 7 games in, but he’s lapping the field so far.

Agree with most of this but if I am not completly off Luka´s PER is even higher. Just looking at boxscore based metrics Luka is actually leading the league in most of them. WS, VORP, PER. Giannis only BPM.

Obviously only a small part of the conversation and I would give Giannis the award without thinking twice.

[yoyoboy]

Giannis is definitely 1st in my book as well, but Milwaukee has also played by far the weakest schedule in the NBA so far, with a -4.09 SOS. 3 games against Houston and Detroit, 1 against a rapidly collapsing Nets team, and 1 game against the meh Knicks. Even Philly has been up and down and Atlanta barely has a positive net differential on the season thus far. Most importantly, 6 of their 7 games have been at home!

Not a huge deal, but it’s just something worth keeping in mind when projecting things just 7 games in.

[Woodsanity]

Its Giannis by a large margin right nwo.

Exactly this. Huge gap between him and the rest of the league right now. On pace to set the PER record, insane defensive counterpart stats, a +14 net rating for his team when he’s on the floor, and an undefeated record. What more could you want? Obviously anything can happen 7 games in, but he’s lapping the field so far.

Agree with most of this but if I am not completly off Luka´s PER is even higher. Just looking at boxscore based metrics Luka is actually leading the league in most of them. WS, VORP, PER. Giannis only BPM.

Obviously only a small part of the conversation and I would give Giannis the award without thinking twice.

Luka would be top 3 right now. He is playing great but the team record is mediocre. Not his fault the Mavs just arent that talented.

[falcolombardi]

If bucks get the best record giannis will win mvp, nobody else has a good enough storyline right now among realistic mvp picks

Is that simple

[brettski]

Giannis is definitely 1st in my book as well, but Milwaukee has also played by far the weakest schedule in the NBA so far, with a -4.09 SOS. 3 games against Houston and Detroit, 1 against a rapidly collapsing Nets team, and 1 game against the meh Knicks. Even Philly has been up and down and Atlanta barely has a positive net differential on the season thus far. Most importantly, 6 of their 7 games have been at home!

Not a huge deal, but it’s just something worth keeping in mind when projecting things just 7 games in.

Probably the main thing to keep in mind with the schedule is Bucks/Giannis are still doing this without Middleton or Connaughton. That is the second best player missing and first or second guy off the bench who was 5th in minutes played (30 per game), PPG and RPG for the Bucks during their finals vs Phoenix. Those are two huge outs to start the season offsetting the schedule. Not to mention probably 2 of the top 3 floor spacers for the Bucks as well. FYI Pat played almost as many minutes as PJ Tucker in those finals.

[mediocrityrules]

Giannis is definitely 1st in my book as well, but Milwaukee has also played by far the weakest schedule in the NBA so far, with a -4.09 SOS. 3 games against Houston and Detroit, 1 against a rapidly collapsing Nets team, and 1 game against the meh Knicks. Even Philly has been up and down and Atlanta barely has a positive net differential on the season thus far. Most importantly, 6 of their 7 games have been at home!

Not a huge deal, but it’s just something worth keeping in mind when projecting things just 7 games in.

Probably the main thing to keep in mind with the schedule is Bucks/Giannis are still doing this without Middleton or Connaughton. That is the second best player missing and first or second guy off the bench who was 5th in minutes played (30 per game), PPG and RPG for the Bucks during their finals vs Phoenix. Those are two huge outs to start the season offsetting the schedule. Not to mention probably 2 of the top 3 floor spacers for the Bucks as well. FYI Pat played almost as many minutes as PJ Tucker in those finals.

It's interesting because it creates a good story around the team doing so well, but the flow on from them missing is that Giannis has higher usage and is taking more shots than ever before as well. You'd expect this to regress to the mean when Midds is back. I think you might see his ppg dip slightly, but possibly his assist rate will go up

[iggymcfrack]

Its Giannis by a large margin right nwo.

Exactly this. Huge gap between him and the rest of the league right now. On pace to set the PER record, insane defensive counterpart stats, a +14 net rating for his team when he’s on the floor, and an undefeated record. What more could you want? Obviously anything can happen 7 games in, but he’s lapping the field so far.

Agree with most of this but if I am not completly off Luka´s PER is even higher. Just looking at boxscore based metrics Luka is actually leading the league in most of them. WS, VORP, PER. Giannis only BPM.

Obviously only a small part of the conversation and I would give Giannis the award without thinking twice.

Luka’s PER is higher but he has a negative on/off on an average team after having a disappointing on/off last year which leads me to believe he’s at best a below average defender while Giannis is arguably the best defender in the entire league. If Luka’s slightly better on offense, that still leaves a massive gap between them.

[OkcSinceSGA]

Top Five players in the league this year for me (no order)

Giannis
Luka
Mitchell
Tatum
Siakam

Next Five
Morant
Jokic
Lillard
Curry
Booker

SGA has outplayed all of them outside of Luka and Giannis arguably. You are a Raptors fan and don't even have him in your top 10.

[zonedefense]

Exactly this. Huge gap between him and the rest of the league right now. On pace to set the PER record, insane defensive counterpart stats, a +14 net rating for his team when he’s on the floor, and an undefeated record. What more could you want? Obviously anything can happen 7 games in, but he’s lapping the field so far.

Agree with most of this but if I am not completly off Luka´s PER is even higher. Just looking at boxscore based metrics Luka is actually leading the league in most of them. WS, VORP, PER. Giannis only BPM.

Obviously only a small part of the conversation and I would give Giannis the award without thinking twice.

Luka’s PER is higher but he has a negative on/off on an average team after having a disappointing on/off last year which leads me to believe he’s at best a below average defender while Giannis is arguably the best defender in the entire league. If Luka’s slightly better on offense, that still leaves a massive gap between them.

Don´t disagree but I would wait a bit longer for a bigger +/- sample size. Right now the Mavs starting five is a giant dumpster fire when it comes to on/off. Luka is the only starter that isn´t a double digit negative.

As I said. Overall it´s Giannis. Even if Luka is marginally better on offense it´s not nearly enough to close the giant gap on defense. Will be interesting to see if someone else can join the conversation.

[brettski]

Giannis is definitely 1st in my book as well, but Milwaukee has also played by far the weakest schedule in the NBA so far, with a -4.09 SOS. 3 games against Houston and Detroit, 1 against a rapidly collapsing Nets team, and 1 game against the meh Knicks. Even Philly has been up and down and Atlanta barely has a positive net differential on the season thus far. Most importantly, 6 of their 7 games have been at home!

Not a huge deal, but it’s just something worth keeping in mind when projecting things just 7 games in.

Probably the main thing to keep in mind with the schedule is Bucks/Giannis are still doing this without Middleton or Connaughton. That is the second best player missing and first or second guy off the bench who was 5th in minutes played (30 per game), PPG and RPG for the Bucks during their finals vs Phoenix. Those are two huge outs to start the season offsetting the schedule. Not to mention probably 2 of the top 3 floor spacers for the Bucks as well. FYI Pat played almost as many minutes as PJ Tucker in those finals.

It's interesting because it creates a good story around the team doing so well, but the flow on from them missing is that Giannis has higher usage and is taking more shots than ever before as well. You'd expect this to regress to the mean when Midds is back. I think you might see his ppg dip slightly, but possibly his assist rate will go up

Agree but you'd also expect a slightly higher FG% because there will be less traffic in the key once he has two 40% 3 point shooters around him which will offset some of the PPG reduce due to less shots.

[Genjuro]

Mitchell deserves some love but he won’t get it because it’s year one - do this next year and we will see

I wasn't aware of that year-one rule. I guess those who voted for Barkley or Nash as MVPs back in the day weren't as well.

[Dutchball97]

Mitchell deserves some love but he won’t get it because it’s year one - do this next year and we will see

I wasn't aware of that year-one rule. I guess those who voted for Barkley or Nash as MVPs back in the day weren't as well.

It's crazy how many rules people are trying to invent. The MVP is either the best player on the best team or the best player in general as long as their team is competitive enough. All these super niche rules like "a 6'5 player never started 0-2 and still ended up winning MVP" are way too circumstantial and not indicative of the future.

It's probably because of betting that people are trying to outgame the system and only end up talking themselves out of the actual contenders.

[life_saver]

How is Mitchell not in the poll ? Not that I think he is the frontrunner now but I think he atleast deserves to be in top10

[Archx]

Exactly this. Huge gap between him and the rest of the league right now. On pace to set the PER record, insane defensive counterpart stats, a +14 net rating for his team when he’s on the floor, and an undefeated record. What more could you want? Obviously anything can happen 7 games in, but he’s lapping the field so far.

Agree with most of this but if I am not completly off Luka´s PER is even higher. Just looking at boxscore based metrics Luka is actually leading the league in most of them. WS, VORP, PER. Giannis only BPM.

Obviously only a small part of the conversation and I would give Giannis the award without thinking twice.

Luka’s PER is higher but he has a negative on/off on an average team after having a disappointing on/off last year which leads me to believe he’s at best a below average defender while Giannis is arguably the best defender in the entire league. If Luka’s slightly better on offense, that still leaves a massive gap between them.

There is an easy answer to that. It's in the lineups that Kidd is mixing Luka with. If you go into details you'll notice that all the best guys with best +/- and best NETrtg are bench guys. Luka is actually the absolute highest out of starters with +/- and netrtg numbers. Hence it also makes sense why he's such a one man show this year.

Kidd plays top guys from the bench and even they play 25 minutes or less, which is why he has to shoulder such a massive burden at the start of the season.
So until Kidd figures it out and finally starts playing Wood like a starter, this trend might continue. But like someone else pointed out, you can see in other metrics what kind of a monster start of the season he's had. Leads all Mavs in rebounds, steals, points, assists and in almost just about any other offensive/defensive metric.

[KGtabake]

Jokic is on Giannis 2021 mode.
Chill in the RS(still will have monster line), hit another gear in the playoffs.
Nuggets should be pleased with this. Just stay healthy.

[old skool]

The Kia MVP Ladder on NBA.com has:

1. Antetokounmpo
2. Doncic
3. Mitchell
4. Morant
5. Booker

Just one man's view of things, but his narrative focuses entirely on offensive output and team W-L record.

Defense matters. If your team needs a steal to win a game, which of those players would you want on your team? Or a block? Or a rebound? or a deflection? Antetokounmpo has the edge in so many basketball categories.

Offensively, he has been clearly flipping the switch. Mostly he comes out in the second half looking to dominate and he simply dominates. He has been a one man wrecking crew, imposing his will on both ends, but particularly on offense in the second half.

The problem with any MVP analysis is that the Bucks have 75 games left in the regular season. Lots of good and bad can happen over those last 75 games. It is too early to spot a trend much less a "leader".

[Cavsfansince84]

I think there's a good chance that by the asb Giannis will have almost run away with it. If Milwaukee is 5+ games up on the rest of the league and Giannis is playing at his 2019-2022 levels if not higher then media will have no choice but to give him his 3rd. He may lap the field by April.

[CobraCommander]

Mitchell deserves some love but he won’t get it because it’s year one - do this next year and we will see

I wasn't aware of that year-one rule. I guess those who voted for Barkley or Nash as MVPs back in the day weren't as well.

It's crazy how many rules people are trying to invent. The MVP is either the best player on the best team or the best player in general as long as their team is competitive enough. All these super niche rules like "a 6'5 player never started 0-2 and still ended up winning MVP" are way too circumstantial and not indicative of the future.

It's probably because of betting that people are trying to outgame the system and only end up talking themselves out of the actual contenders.

I ain’t inventing a rule...

I ask you directly ..if Mitchell is the best player in the league THIS year, do YOU think Mitchell will win if Luka and Giannis keep up what they are doing right now?