2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 3: Son of daughter of MVP thread)

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Who is leading the MVP race?

Nikola Jokic
155
46%
Giannis Antetokounmpo
29
9%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
128
38%
Jayson Tatum
10
3%
Donovan Mitchell
2
1%
Victor Wembanyama
3
1%
LeBron James
1
0%
Jalen Brunson
3
1%
Anthony Edwards
1
0%
Other (AD, Durant, Steph, Trae, JJJ, Sengun, Sabonis, Cade, Lamelo, Kyrie etc. - poll is limited to 10 options)
5
1%
 
Total votes: 337

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Re: 2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 3: Son of daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#301 » by Special_Puppy » Tue Jan 21, 2025 2:34 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
hardenASG13 wrote:
RB34 wrote:
SGA may have scored 200 more points than Joker but has had 120+ more FGa. Being a PG he has 100+ less assists than Joker.

Edit: he’s also had 98 more FTs than Joker.


Jokic leads the league in passes per game and is second in potential assists per game. He constantly has cutters moving off him or taking handoffs/zoom action from him. It's no surprise he has more assists. He's set up better than really any player in the league to get assists because of how Denver uses him at the top of the key and minimizes their guards/forwards as playmakers.

It's so weird this board criticizes volume scorers all day but seems to love Jokic and say he's having the best season ever just because of his assits on volume passing.


Okay, so I would fundamentally disagree with how you're thinking about "volume passing", because you're clearly seeing as if a high assist-to-pass ratio should be assumed to be a good thing in the same way a make-to-shot ratio would, and I don't think that's a healthy way to look at what's going on.

The critical thing here is that while shots consume team opportunity (except in the minority of cases where there's an offensive rebound), successfully completed passes don't.

Further, a player who passes the ball like Jokic actually hogs the ball less than your typical point guard, so what he does there is like the opposite of "usage" in a way that's not the case for, say, a Harden-type helio.

To be clear: Jokic passing so much more than those helios doesn't mean he's necessarily a better or more valuable passer - that all depends on things like the quality of the passes within the context of possession - but it does speak to a different offensive scheme that has been around far longer than the helio model, and doesn't have anything fundamentally wrong with it.

It also isn't necessarily an improvement, but the way I've characterized in the context of Jokic is:

If someone's the best passer in the world, don't you expect to get more passing-based value from him if he passes the ball more often?

Of course if the guy is a good enough scorer you can argue he shouldn't pass as much, but just from a passing evaluation, you're going to have more value from passing if he passes more so long as he's making good decisions along the way.

And I would argue that Jokic makes better decisions than anyone else around, while also having better passing touch than anyone else and having better passing vision than everyone else. Others can disagree of course, but no, I don't see any kind of significant problem here in general. The closest I could come is in saying that Jokic is slow to give up on his teammates and so in games/series where his teammates never stop missing the shots they're being paid to make, the team would have probably done better if he'd just shot more...but of course "done better" doesn't mean "win the championship" because you need teammates to hit shots for that to happen.

Last thing I'll note: I don't consider assists to be a great measure of passing impact, which I know sounds ridiculous. The thing is that offensive schemes can inflate assist totals relative to playmaking value.

I'd say the definitive example of this is Rajon Rondo on the Celtics where he was allowed to hog the ball and then pass it to guys in the mid-range where they were expected to shoot. When you run your offense that way it's going to let your point guard get a lot of assists, but that doesn't mean his work is generating high value shots.

(The more controversial statement is to say that this was a significant component to Stockton's mega-assist totals in the era before the Jazz better optimized their approach. Stockton was a great player, but he's not getting assist totals like that if the team plays differently.)

I'll just end by reiterating that I have Shai as my MVP. I'm not arguing for Jokic over Shai on the question that this thread is focused on...but yeah, I definitely see him as a better and more valuable passer than Shai.


Out of curiosity why do you have SGA as your MVP?
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Re: 2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 3: Son of daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#302 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Jan 21, 2025 2:50 am

Special_Puppy wrote:Out of curiosity why do you have SGA as your MVP?


Simplest thing I'd point to is the stuff I've mentioned on just how insane Shai's On Court +/- numbers are and how big the gap is over his teammates. I would consider '08-09 LeBron to be the king of lift, but right now Shai's On tops that LeBron (any year of Bron to be clear) while having teammates that aren't matching even LeBron's '08-09 teammates.

This doesn't necessarily mean he's more impactful or valuable than Jokic, but it's at least putting Shai in the highest tier of regular season value that exists.

ftr, I'm not saying that Shai will necessarily keep this up - the season is ongoing - but if he does keep it up, hard for me to imagine not giving him the RS MVP nod.

In terms of actual basketball skills, well, I think Shai's now reached a point where it's not clear Jokic is a better scorer than him, and while Jokic's rebounding is great, I'd still be inclined to favor Shai for the non-scoring/passing end of the game. He's not a Jokic-level passer of course, and Jokic's passing advantage might end up being the deciding factor, but Shai's certainly got some advantages.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 3: Son of daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#303 » by brackdan70 » Tue Jan 21, 2025 1:14 pm

Exp0sed wrote:Giannis is comfortably in 3rd place, having one hell of a season himself

31.5\12\6 on 60% from the field in just 35 mins. the Bucks obviously aren't impressive but after their terrible start they're 24-17 and likely will win 50+ games. he would be the MVP in most NBA seasons but obviously not in this one...

I think comfortably is a bit of a stretch. Based on impact Metrics he is more in that 5-6th range, partly because he has missed several games.
Id probably put him in at 3rd, maybe 4th, but there is nothing comfortable about it.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 3: Son of daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#304 » by Ryoga Hibiki » Tue Jan 21, 2025 3:01 pm

At this point, I don't think this is close at all.
If the voters are even marginally consistent to how the voting went over the last 45 years the MVP, as it stands now, belongs to Shai Gilgeous Alexander. While I think Jokic is a better player, the difference in team success is too much to brush off when the guy himself is having a strong MVP season.
What were the odds, a few years ago, that Luka wouldn't have been the first in his class to win a MVP?
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Re: 2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 3: Son of daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#305 » by iggymcfrack » Tue Jan 21, 2025 7:26 pm

Jokic now has the highest BPM of all-time at 13.9 breaking his own record from 2022. SGA’s 12.0 BPM is the highest by a guard since Jordan in ‘91, surpassing Steph Curry’s numbers from 2016. This MVP race is NUTS. We’ve never seen anything remotely like it. Anyone still voting for Giannis must be living under a rock, LOL.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 3: Son of daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#306 » by Castle Black » Tue Jan 21, 2025 7:39 pm

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Re: 2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 3: Son of daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#307 » by Special_Puppy » Tue Jan 21, 2025 10:08 pm

Ryoga Hibiki wrote:At this point, I don't think this is close at all.
If the voters are even marginally consistent to how the voting went over the last 45 years the MVP, as it stands now, belongs to Shai Gilgeous Alexander. While I think Jokic is a better player, the difference in team success is too much to brush off when the guy himself is having a strong MVP season.
What were the odds, a few years ago, that Luka wouldn't have been the first in his class to win a MVP?


How much of the difference in team success is because SGA has been more valuable than Jokic this season vs SGA's supporting cast being better than Jokic's this season?
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Re: 2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 3: Son of daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#308 » by Ron Swanson » Tue Jan 21, 2025 10:44 pm

Embiid was on pace to shatter the PER record last season (34.1) before he got hurt (surprise). And then there's this:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/per_season.html

21 of the 35 (60%) best PER seasons ever have occurred in just the last 15-years. 8 of the Top-15 have occurred in the last decade. Hell, if these all hold, 4 different players in just the last 3-years will have authored 7 combined 30+ PER seasons. Insane.

At some point I just have to take these box advanced/composite metrics within the last 5-10 years with a massive grain of salt. It's just awfully hard for me to entertain the notion of "GOAT seasons" without acknowledging/contextualizing these numbers in respect to their era. I can legitimately see a future where a guy like Wemby is putting up something like 30/15/6/4, and he'll somehow lose the MVP to Luka because he puts up a 33/11/10 season on 65% TS lol.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 3: Son of daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#309 » by famicommander » Tue Jan 21, 2025 11:53 pm

Ron Swanson wrote:Embiid was on pace to shatter the PER record last season (34.1) before he got hurt (surprise).

This was smoke and mirrors:
-he played far more home games than road games
-he played far more games against losing teams than winning teams
-he was intentionally statpadding for his 30/10 streak, to the point where he was injured on three separate occasions going back into blowouts late to chase those numbers

Even if he'd never been hurt, that wasn't sustainable over a balanced, full season schedule. Before the injury that took him out for the largest chunk of the season he was cherrypicking opponents and prioritizing his statline over anything else. It wasn't organic basketball.

PatBev even snitched on him when he told Richard Jefferson that Embiid refused to rest when advised to against "trash teams" because he needed to get to 65 games and keep his numbers up to win another MVP.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 3: Son of daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#310 » by iggymcfrack » Wed Jan 22, 2025 12:00 am

Ron Swanson wrote:Embiid was on pace to shatter the PER record last season (34.1) before he got hurt (surprise). And then there's this:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/per_season.html

21 of the 35 (60%) best PER seasons ever have occurred in just the last 15-years. 8 of the Top-15 have occurred in the last decade. Hell, if these all hold, 4 different players in just the last 3-years will have authored 7 combined 30+ PER seasons. Insane.

At some point I just have to take these box advanced/composite metrics within the last 5-10 years with a massive grain of salt. It's just awfully hard for me to entertain the notion of "GOAT seasons" without acknowledging/contextualizing these numbers in respect to their era. I can legitimately see a future where a guy like Wemby is putting up something like 30/15/6/4, and he'll somehow lose the MVP to Luka because he puts up a 33/11/10 season on 65% TS lol.


It's still a league adjusted stat. It's set so that 15.0 is league average no matter what. It's not like the formula is just "plug in x number of points, rebounds, and assists, and you get this score no matter what". Jokic and SGA are still more dominant relative to the average player in the league than all but a few players from previous eras.

Does playing in more space allow elite players to exert more force on the game relative to the average player than they could in the past? Yeah, sure. But at the same time, the international explosion of talent means there's much more talent in the league and the average player is better than ever. It's a higher bar.

How would those top lists of the top PER seasons look if you took the international talent out? No Jokic, no Giannis, no Embiid. SGA probably would have made the league from Toronto 20-30 years ago, but what about 50-60 years ago? Doubtful. I'd say the fact that top players are more important to their teams than ever without weak shooters to help off of is pretty well balanced by the fact that there's more players competing for all the NBA jobs and the level of competition is at an all-time high.

We're just scouring the globe and literally finding better players. If anything, maybe we're beginning to learn that Americans aren't actually the people best suited to play this game that we dominated at for so long, before the rest of the world started sending their best. Maybe Michael Jordan wouldn't have even been the best player of his era if places like Cameroon, Serbia, South Sudan and Greece had the kind of training and recruitment that they have today.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 3: Son of daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#311 » by cupcakesnake » Wed Jan 22, 2025 1:48 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
Special_Puppy wrote:Out of curiosity why do you have SGA as your MVP?


Simplest thing I'd point to is the stuff I've mentioned on just how insane Shai's On Court +/- numbers are and how big the gap is over his teammates. I would consider '08-09 LeBron to be the king of lift, but right now Shai's On tops that LeBron (any year of Bron to be clear) while having teammates that aren't matching even LeBron's '08-09 teammates.

This doesn't necessarily mean he's more impactful or valuable than Jokic, but it's at least putting Shai in the highest tier of regular season value that exists.

ftr, I'm not saying that Shai will necessarily keep this up - the season is ongoing - but if he does keep it up, hard for me to imagine not giving him the RS MVP nod.

In terms of actual basketball skills, well, I think Shai's now reached a point where it's not clear Jokic is a better scorer than him, and while Jokic's rebounding is great, I'd still be inclined to favor Shai for the non-scoring/passing end of the game. He's not a Jokic-level passer of course, and Jokic's passing advantage might end up being the deciding factor, but Shai's certainly got some advantages.


A big thing here is that Jokic's on/off is padded by the Nuggets being unable to put functional lineups on the floor without him. OKC has no such problem. When Shai sits, they run Jalen Williams with some combination of iHart/Dort/Wallace/Caruso/Joe and are still murdering teams. Shai lineups are are simply so dominant that he makes good lineups look bad!

It's not rare for MVP candidates to look just "good" when they're the best player on stacked teams. For Shai to somehow still be "driving the bus" to such an extent, when the bus is a nuclear tank... truly is raises my eyebrows.

I'm not sure I agree with Doc here that the skill level is as close. I think Jokic's shooting touch is and shooting range is a real level up from Shai's ridiculous level. I'm still a little unimpressed by Shai's playmaking, especially because in the past he's said he sees himself becoming "black Steve Nash". His scoring is too unstoppable to need to pass a lot of the time, but I think of that Mavs series and how he wasn't able to use his driving pressure to create amazing looks for teammates. He's still at that stage where he can "get his" no matter what, but I think there's another level to unlock there. It's a level Jokic already has achieved.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 3: Son of daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#312 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Jan 22, 2025 4:14 am

Ron Swanson wrote:Embiid was on pace to shatter the PER record last season (34.1) before he got hurt (surprise). And then there's this:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/per_season.html

21 of the 35 (60%) best PER seasons ever have occurred in just the last 15-years. 8 of the Top-15 have occurred in the last decade. Hell, if these all hold, 4 different players in just the last 3-years will have authored 7 combined 30+ PER seasons. Insane.

At some point I just have to take these box advanced/composite metrics within the last 5-10 years with a massive grain of salt. It's just awfully hard for me to entertain the notion of "GOAT seasons" without acknowledging/contextualizing these numbers in respect to their era. I can legitimately see a future where a guy like Wemby is putting up something like 30/15/6/4, and he'll somehow lose the MVP to Luka because he puts up a 33/11/10 season on 65% TS lol.


So, I think you're right to see this as a reason not to use PER as a great proxy for how valuable a player is. It's better than nothing, but it has glaring flaws.

But I'd emphasize that the key thing to make a stat valuable for you in your analysis is to figure out what the stat DOES say and what specific factors may be knocking its validity a bit side ways.

The specific thing I'd point to is a tendency of NBA teams to concentrate primacy in the hands of one player considerably more than teams in the past did. While these players don't necessarily play the same way, the core pull here is that play is becoming generally more optimized, and a significant component of how offense has been optimized is maximize the footprint of the team's best talent.

As such, on a per minute basis, the alphas are just plain being asked/allowed to do more than their counterparts in the past with exceptions that prove the rule (Cousy, Oscar, Wilt, etc.).

Of course if we were actually arguing about which was more impressive someone could bring up that guys used to play more minutes - because that's also true and one other fact that makes the question of more value contributed harder.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 3: Son of daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#313 » by famicommander » Wed Jan 22, 2025 4:46 am

Four straight games with a triple double before the end of the 3rd quarter for Jokic.

Tonight he has 25/11/10/4/1 in 28 minutes with 2:08 still left in the third. 9/14 FG, 2/3 3PT, 5/5 FT
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Re: 2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 3: Son of daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#314 » by Jaqua92 » Wed Jan 22, 2025 4:54 am

As I said before, if SGA wins MVP this year, it'll be just another asterisk..

If Denver gets the 2 seed, Jokic is robbed if he's not the MVP.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 3: Son of daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#315 » by AleksandarN » Wed Jan 22, 2025 4:54 am

famicommander wrote:Three straight games with a triple double before the end of the 3rd quarter for Jokic.

Tonight he has 25/11/10/4/1 in 28 minutes with 2:08 still left in the third. 9/14 FG, 2/3 3PT, 5/5 FT


27/13/10. He won’t play in the fourth he is done
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Re: 2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 3: Son of daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#316 » by Jaqua92 » Wed Jan 22, 2025 4:55 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
Ron Swanson wrote:Embiid was on pace to shatter the PER record last season (34.1) before he got hurt (surprise). And then there's this:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/per_season.html

21 of the 35 (60%) best PER seasons ever have occurred in just the last 15-years. 8 of the Top-15 have occurred in the last decade. Hell, if these all hold, 4 different players in just the last 3-years will have authored 7 combined 30+ PER seasons. Insane.

At some point I just have to take these box advanced/composite metrics within the last 5-10 years with a massive grain of salt. It's just awfully hard for me to entertain the notion of "GOAT seasons" without acknowledging/contextualizing these numbers in respect to their era. I can legitimately see a future where a guy like Wemby is putting up something like 30/15/6/4, and he'll somehow lose the MVP to Luka because he puts up a 33/11/10 season on 65% TS lol.


So, I think you're right to see this as a reason not to use PER as a great proxy for how valuable a player is. It's better than nothing, but it has glaring flaws.

But I'd emphasize that the key thing to make a stat valuable for you in your analysis is to figure out what the stat DOES say and what specific factors may be knocking its validity a bit side ways.

The specific thing I'd point to is a tendency of NBA teams to concentrate primacy in the hands of one player considerably more than teams in the past did. While these players don't necessarily play the same way, the core pull here is that play is becoming generally more optimized, and a significant component of how offense has been optimized is maximize the footprint of the team's best talent.

As such, on a per minute basis, the alphas are just plain being asked/allowed to do more than their counterparts in the past with exceptions that prove the rule (Cousy, Oscar, Wilt, etc.).

Of course if we were actually arguing about which was more impressive someone could bring up that guys used to play more minutes - because that's also true and one other fact that makes the question of more value contributed harder.


That's what made MJ so impressive.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 3: Son of daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#317 » by AleksandarN » Wed Jan 22, 2025 5:08 am

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Re: 2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 3: Son of daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#318 » by AleksandarN » Wed Jan 22, 2025 5:52 am

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Re: 2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 3: Son of daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#319 » by TheFire » Wed Jan 22, 2025 6:14 am

Being top 5 in steals and 3 pt percentage is just the cherry on top for Jokic in what has been an absolutely ludicrous season. This is certainly the best Jokic we’ve ever seen and it’s hard to imagine him getting better from here.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 3: Son of daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#320 » by Ryoga Hibiki » Wed Jan 22, 2025 6:25 am

Special_Puppy wrote:
Ryoga Hibiki wrote:At this point, I don't think this is close at all.
If the voters are even marginally consistent to how the voting went over the last 45 years the MVP, as it stands now, belongs to Shai Gilgeous Alexander. While I think Jokic is a better player, the difference in team success is too much to brush off when the guy himself is having a strong MVP season.
What were the odds, a few years ago, that Luka wouldn't have been the first in his class to win a MVP?


How much of the difference in team success is because SGA has been more valuable than Jokic this season vs SGA's supporting cast being better than Jokic's this season?


I do think Jokic is more valuable, but we have a history in voting and teams wins do matter and have been part of the discussion.
I am not ok at changing the MVP logic now because of Jokic.
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