DimesandKnicks wrote:dhsilv2 wrote:DimesandKnicks wrote:
Impossible!? Come on, man — you’re being evasive. Engage in good faith. I’ve been asking you the same exact thing for multiple posts now: how you arrived at your +1.1 per steal or +1.5 from rebounding figures. Show your framework so it can stand up to scrutiny and “quantify” the impact of his steals rebounds and “reduced fouls”.
Let me give u an example using Jokic’s poor pnr defense while defending the screener.
According to Second Spectrum tracking data from NBA.com, the Nuggets allowed 1.02 points per chance when Jokić defended the screener in pick-and-roll actions last season. He defended 45.8 ball screens per 100 possessions, one of the highest rates in the league. That means:
1.02 points × 45.8 chances = 46.7 points allowed per 100 possessions.
Now, Denver as a team allowed 116.9 points per game last season (roughly 100 possessions per game). So Jokić’s PnR defense — just this one area of defense alone — accounts for about:
(46.7 ÷ 116.9) × 100 = 40 percent of all points the Nuggets allow.
That’s massive. And it directly contradicts this idea that Denver’s slightly better on/off defensive numbers with him on the floor somehow prove his impact. When nearly 40 percent of your total points allowed come from one defensive action tied directly to your center, the “they’re 5 points better per 100 with him on the court” line doesn’t carry the weight you think it does.
I’m not saying on/off data is useless — I’m saying it’s incomplete without understanding how those numbers form. Jokic’s weaknesses in core defensive actions like pick-and-roll coverage far outweigh the narrative that he “offsets” them by not fouling or grabbing defensive boards. Those boards often come after poor initial defense, and his “low foul rate” comes from avoiding contesting shots in the first place.
So sure, in a vacuum, low fouls and strong defensive rebounding can offset poor eFG%, but Jokic has far more defensive liabilities than just eFG% — rim protection, pick-and-roll defense, contested shots, gambling for steals that lead to baskets, and leaving shooters uncontested. Those aren’t minor omissions; they’re major negative contributions that dwarf whatever small credit you try to assign.
I don't know how others respond. But what I do is I hit reply and go back and read over what you said again and try to answer it. It's really hard with the small text box to separate my comments from yours. I've done it with people I like and dislike equally. I just refuse to go into those types of replies. Truly nothing personal or me wanting to avoid stuff. I just find it really difficult and frustrating.
So just to be clear. You agree with the statement that poor eFG% defense can be offset by reduced free throw rates and strong defensive rebounding? There's nothing else to discuss until I fully understand if you agree or not on this.
Is me saying sure not a clear affirmation?
I mean if someone asks for a clear "yes or no", it seems reasonable to expect one or the other.