Don Draper wrote:The problem is the assumption that limiting player choice is better for the league. What are you basing this on? There are many models that are successful without these limitations, so I'm not sure how you draw such a conclusion.
I don't believe limiting player choice is - by itself - better for the league. However, I do think that the right limitations can lead to a more widely competitive league which engages the communities of more local markets and brings in more casual fans who enjoy seeing their local team succeed as well as those who want good basketball. A system which keeps super teams from forming will force teams to build more balanced rosters to compete.
Don Draper wrote:I simply believe that price floors and ceilings are bad for the league. I wouldn't call myself pro "superteam", but I do realize that "superteams" have fueled the increasing popularity of basketball worldwide (Lakers, Celtics, Dream Team, Miami Heat, etc).
Like I said, there are arguments that support the super team model. I think it's inaccurate to attribute the popularity increases to super teams though. The NBA has had a phenomenal marketing team for the last 30 years or so, and I believe they would have succeeded in selling balanced teams just as well as they did super teams. Look at how quickly people sided with the owners in the lockout or forgot about the Tim Donaghy scandal to see just how effective the league is at changing perceptions to what they want.
Don Draper wrote:This is false. The system actually tries to do the opposite. Ever heard of revenue sharing? Draft lottery? Rookie Scale? Bird rights? These are all designed to help low revenue/less desirable markets. I don't understand how anyone can claim this system rewards large markets.
A lot of those measures have helped, but some have backfired. I mentioned revenue sharing already. Draft Lottery and Rookie Scale contracts help everyone equally. Bird rights have become twisted to the point where they encourage players to demand trades. All those things didn't help Denver keep Anthony, or give Utah confidence in keeping Williams.
Don Draper wrote:Nothing in the NBA's history tells me this would be the case. Most of the NBA's popularity came during the reign of dominant teams. Look at the NBA Finals ratings post-Kobe/Shaq and pre-Boston's big 3. It's not a fluke that the ratings plummeted in the absence of dominant teams.
Finals ratings definitely took a drop, but what happened to the average revenue of the leagues teams? I couldn't find this data in a quick search, so it could definitely have dropped as well but I think we need to take into account other factors as well. Ratings of a finals popularity can indicate to some degree the popularity of the league, but at the end of the day it's the profitability of small- and mid-market franchises that determines whether the league is growing or shrinking.
Don Draper wrote:More teams competing =/= larger fan base. Where are you getting this from?
Going off of regional fans, the top metro areas have a population of ~55 million and account for 7 teams. The remaining 23 have a population over 65 million. Assuming non-regional fans just want to see good basketball (or what the league's marketing machine tells them is good basketball) then that means there is nearly a 20% increase in potential fans outside the large markets
Don Draper wrote:Who brings most of the money? Stars or role players? Big markets or small markets?
Like I mentioned before, the NBA's marketing team brings in the most money. If LA was forced to build a balanced level of scrubs around Kobe and he was fighting towards the championship, they would sell the drama of him doing just that. There's always a storyline that can be made, and the league will find ways to sell it.
Don Draper wrote:I prefer the latter without a salary cap. The former isn't possible
I believe the former is possible (and have made suggestions to do so), but I can understand why you might believe differently. Time will tell, since the guys with all the data (league/owners) will ultimately do what is best for them and their books.