The OFFICIAL "Was the 2025 NBA draft rigged?"

[basketballwacko2]

I think it's unlikely but I no longer entirely rule it out.

And for the point of argument I also don't think the 'conspiracy' has to be all-encompassing (all lottos are not necessarily rigged) or that the beneficiaries would even necessarily need to know they were going to be awarded the pick. That seems to be something a lot of debunkers assume would be the case, but it wouldn't have to be.

Overall I lean against it being rigged because of complexity problems. The incredible results, not just this year but multiple times in the past, that defy statistical probability do give me pause.

Notice that some teams win the lottery over and over! And when a big market team has traded it's pick but has top X protection like top 4 they almost always move up to get to keep their pick.

[Chuck Everett]

The world is a stage...

[basketballwacko2]

I will agree with someone here who said that there is no question the 1985 draft for Patrick Ewing was rigged!!

[sp6r=underrated]

There should be an option for definitely not. Anyway I'll repost what I wrote in another thread on this topic. Long story short if you believe the NBA fixes the lottery you shouldn't care about the NBA.

Spoiler:

Some problems can be fixed. The NBA had a problem where the game had become too tilted towards defenses so they changed the rules post-2004 and the game became more balanced. MLB had a problem where games were becoming too long so they introduced a pitch clock. Game time has gone down significantly since the change.

But other problems are unfixable. The Conspiracy Theory about the NBA is that the owners working through the commissioner manipulates trades and the draft to ensure the Lakers are a perpetual contender and also other preferred teams selectively benefit.

If this conspiracy is true the NBA's current owners, commissioner, former owners, key management personnel and business partners have engaged in a multi-decade conspiracy to defraud customers. The conspirators are so powerful they've managed a multi-decade conspiracy without any evidence for the conspiracy leaking out.

If this is true the NBA is unfixable because the entire institution of the NBA is corrupt. So if you believe in the conspiracy you shouldn't care about the NBA.

Weak reasoning imo

The conspiracy doesn't exist but assuming it does how do you fix the NBA if all the owners actively agree to manipulate trades, refereeing and the draft to favor the Lakers and a couple of other clubs?

[sp6r=underrated]

Everyone whose read my posts on this board knows I think the fix theory is absurd. If I was a mod I would flat out ban people for making threads/posts about the theory.

The comment below is important.

Also, once the small market teams get a whiff of actual fixing all hell will break loose.

Take Utah, they've been engaging in a blatant tank for Flagg. If Utah knew the draft was going to be fixed, why would they tank? They wouldn't so if the theory is true, Utah must be in the dark.

And if Utah is in the dark, which owners control the Silver? If your answer is the big market clubs, why would Ballmer want the lakers to be revived?

The conspiracy doesn't make sense because the conspiracy is just people with low social trust and jealousy of the lakers trying to explain away outcomes they hate by sinister machinations rather than the Mavericks have a really dumb GM who got lucky in the lottery?

[xdrta+]

I wanted to get a feel of this board on this.

Why? There is no conspiracy theory that is too far-fetched for some people, and no amount of reason will ever convince them otherwise. What's the point of the same tired arguments over and over?

[levon]

Everyone whose read my posts on this board knows I think the fix theory is absurd. If I was a mod I would flat out ban people for making threads/posts about the theory.

The comment below is important.

Also, once the small market teams get a whiff of actual fixing all hell will break loose.

Take Utah, they've been engaging in a blatant tank for Flagg. If Utah knew the draft was going to be fixed, why would they tank? They wouldn't so if the theory is true, Utah must be in the dark.

And if Utah is in the dark, which owners control the Silver? If your answer is the big market clubs, why would Ballmer want the lakers to be revived?

The conspiracy doesn't make sense because the conspiracy is just people with low social trust and jealousy of the lakers trying to explain away outcomes they hate by sinister machinations rather than the Mavericks have a really dumb GM who got lucky in the lottery?

If you're a team down 10 and you're on the verge of being blown out and the refs start calling soft calls for you to stabilize the game, did you have to be privy to that prior to the game for it to work?

I don't think there's a Simpsons evil Republican summit of owners and Silver planning how to rig the league every summer. But I'd be really surprised if a solid percentage of actual league people aren't looking a little sideways at this. You can attribute that to magical thinking or stupidity, but you can't tell me this hasn't palpably affected the perception of the league. And if it really was some unfortunate ping pong accident that happened to be such a league miracle, maybe the odds flattening has gone way too far.

Dallas at #1, SA at #2 and Philly at #3 is like the Olympic podium of government handouts. That's like walk out of a theatre because the movie got so contrived.

[UglyBugBall]

Yes, the evidence is overwhelming, and people who dispute it have done zero to prove otherwise.

[Pointgod]

God help us all when over 50% of people believe it was rigged.

[JJ_PR]

What are the odds that a team that inexplicably does something with a .00001% chance of happening (Luka trade) also wins the lottery the same year they only have a 1.8% chance of winning it?

.00000018%

That's literally 0%. But they had a slim 1% chance of winning the lottery. It's baffling.

[levon]

The other thing that bothers me about the appeal to authority here is the comparison of the draft and the lottery to some kind of constitutional tenet of sports. Like Moses came down with "Thou shalt hold a lottery" as the 11th commandment.

You guys realize the draft and the lottery are literally designed to rewrite the stories of franchises, and to maximize the appeal of the league overall? It's like the whole reason it exists. Why would you think a multibillion dollar conglomerate is above taking one extra step beyond just setting the odds? That's worth Cooper Flagg in Charlotte for 7-10 years and Dallas fans hating their ownership ad infinitum?

[Broadcaster]

There should be an option for definitely not. Anyway I'll repost what I wrote in another thread on this topic. Long story short if you believe the NBA fixes the lottery you shouldn't care about the NBA.

Spoiler:

Some problems can be fixed. The NBA had a problem where the game had become too tilted towards defenses so they changed the rules post-2004 and the game became more balanced. MLB had a problem where games were becoming too long so they introduced a pitch clock. Game time has gone down significantly since the change.

But other problems are unfixable. The Conspiracy Theory about the NBA is that the owners working through the commissioner manipulates trades and the draft to ensure the Lakers are a perpetual contender and also other preferred teams selectively benefit.

If this conspiracy is true the NBA's current owners, commissioner, former owners, key management personnel and business partners have engaged in a multi-decade conspiracy to defraud customers. The conspirators are so powerful they've managed a multi-decade conspiracy without any evidence for the conspiracy leaking out.

If this is true the NBA is unfixable because the entire institution of the NBA is corrupt. So if you believe in the conspiracy you shouldn't care about the NBA.

Definitely not is as reckless a thought as definitely is.


Also, most of the world is corrupt. Welcome to the way of things. It’s not exclusive to the NBA.

[Broadcaster]

God help us all when over 50% of people believe it was rigged.

Do you really think when so much money is to be made that businesses wouldn’t find ways to pull strings to make more?

[bisme37]

Looks like the thread from today was merged with the previous thread. But I just made it so you can change your original vote if you'd like.

[Pointgod]

God help us all when over 50% of people believe it was rigged.

Do you really think when so much money is to be made that businesses wouldn’t find ways to pull strings to make more?

The first overall pick means more to the individual franchise than the league as a whole. Only an idiot would believe that multiple billion dollar franchises would go along with a process that hurts their own business

[Broadcaster]

God help us all when over 50% of people believe it was rigged.

Do you really think when so much money is to be made that businesses wouldn’t find ways to pull strings to make more?

The first overall pick means more to the individual franchise than the league as a whole. Only an idiot would believe that multiple billion dollar franchises would go along with a process that hurts their own business

I think there’s a chance it doesn’t work that way. The overall bottom line of the league probably helps everybody. I’d even bet the owners care more about the prospective money, like the investment it is, than they do about actually winning a championship. I’m pretty sure I read that all teams split the TV money.

In a certain way these owners aren’t competing. They’re in business together.

[maxpower8888]

Everyone whose read my posts on this board knows I think the fix theory is absurd. If I was a mod I would flat out ban people for making threads/posts about the theory.

The comment below is important.

Also, once the small market teams get a whiff of actual fixing all hell will break loose.

Don't you think that would be going a bit too far. Personally I love to put on the tinfoil hat every now and then and read about conspiracy theories, it's fun, even if I don't believe them all. This conspiracy theory is basketball related, so no reason for banning discussion, at the end of the day it's all in good fun.

[og15]

Do you really think when so much money is to be made that businesses wouldn’t find ways to pull strings to make more?

The first overall pick means more to the individual franchise than the league as a whole. Only an idiot would believe that multiple billion dollar franchises would go along with a process that hurts their own business

I think there’s a chance it doesn’t work that way. The overall bottom line of the league probably helps everybody. I’d even bet the owners care more about the prospective money, like the investment it is, than they do about actually winning a championship. I’m pretty sure I read that all teams split the TV money.

In a certain way these owners aren’t competing. They’re in business together.

They are in business together in some ways, but not in others.

Not all owners are the same, this is the problem with the owners all want to get more money and therefore will compromise their own team success stuff. An owner like Ballmer has a net worth higher than the WHOLE NBA. His whole goal is winning, he doesn't care about revenue sharing or what is going to help another franchise.

The other problem you have is that it would also have to include former owners, yet not even a hint of one of them every suggesting something was off. Even if we say it is just the owners who were involved in this or that trade, there are ones who are former, but nothing.

Any explanation that involves all the owners being in on something like this simply cannot stand up to scrutiny.

So if one has a theory, it's not going to be the, "well they all just want to make more money". Or the, "well billion dollar companies can and are corrupt, therefore they MUST be corrupt in this way". That also doesn't fit into the reactions in real time of the owners and reps when this stuff is happening, unless fans literally believe NBA personnel are better actors than professional actors.

[Broadcaster]

The first overall pick means more to the individual franchise than the league as a whole. Only an idiot would believe that multiple billion dollar franchises would go along with a process that hurts their own business

I think there’s a chance it doesn’t work that way. The overall bottom line of the league probably helps everybody. I’d even bet the owners care more about the prospective money, like the investment it is, than they do about actually winning a championship. I’m pretty sure I read that all teams split the TV money.

In a certain way these owners aren’t competing. They’re in business together.

They are in business together in some ways, but not in others.

Not all owners are the same, this is the problem with the owners all want to get more money and therefore will compromise their own team success stuff. An owner like Ballmer has a net worth higher than the WHOLE NBA. His whole goal is winning, he doesn't care about revenue sharing or what is going to help another franchise.

The other problem you have is that it would also have to include former owners, yet not even a hint of one of them every suggesting something was off. Even if we say it is just the owners who were involved in this or that trade, there are ones who are former, but nothing.

Any explanation that involves all the owners being in on something like this simply cannot stand up to scrutiny.

So if one has a theory, it's not going to be the, "well they all just want to make more money". Or the, "well billion dollar companies can and are corrupt, therefore they MUST be corrupt in this way". That also doesn't fit into the reactions in real time of the owners and reps when this stuff is happening, unless fans literally believe NBA personnel are better actors than professional actors.

This is definitely fair. I do have many doubts about the integrity of the league but you make good points.

[SNPA]

Everyone whose read my posts on this board knows I think the fix theory is absurd. If I was a mod I would flat out ban people for making threads/posts about the theory.

The comment below is important.

Also, once the small market teams get a whiff of actual fixing all hell will break loose.

Take Utah, they've been engaging in a blatant tank for Flagg. If Utah knew the draft was going to be fixed, why would they tank? They wouldn't so if the theory is true, Utah must be in the dark.

And if Utah is in the dark, which owners control the Silver? If your answer is the big market clubs, why would Ballmer want the lakers to be revived?

The conspiracy doesn't make sense because the conspiracy is just people with low social trust and jealousy of the lakers trying to explain away outcomes they hate by sinister machinations rather than the Mavericks have a really dumb GM who got lucky in the lottery?

Ugh. Such limited thinking.

I’ll set aside the lotto.

With officiating we know exactly how it works and it’s not about all the owners agreeing on every move. It’s about the commissioner making the franchise valuations climb at astronomical rates. As long as that happens, even owners who probably know what’s up (Cuban), will continue to get along. They are all in the boat together and Silver/Stern is never going to give any individual one of them enough to prove anything.

To a multi billion dollar corporation that sells putting a ball through a hoop it’s not rigging. This isn’t an election. This is simply the business model. It’s as straight forward as can be.