2024-25 NBA Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt. 3)

wemby · Post #341 » by **wemby** » Tue Mar 18, 2025 7:14 pm

7seventynine9 wrote:He's a nice player but how much upside is there? Is any team really going to regret passing on Knecht? In a redraft, does he move up all that much? Most of the teams that passed on him aren't winning anytime soon and Knecht doesn't move the needle any. He's the type of player teams outside of the lottery should be targetting though.

Personally, if my team sucks and is picking 9th or 10th, I'd rather they go big than go safe.

Probably Salaun and Cody Williams, off the top of my head. Probably the rest would still be taken ahead of Knecht if a re-draft were held today with what we know now.

Bornstellar · Post #342 » by **Bornstellar** » Tue Mar 18, 2025 9:28 pm

Jamaaliver wrote:Steph Castle may need a bit of a break...

Single game plus minus? Come on man, you're a RealGM mod. You're better than this

jayu70 · Post #343 » by **jayu70** » Wed Mar 19, 2025 2:05 am

Since the calender flipped to 2025, Zacc's 3pt shooting has been something. I guess it took him a minute to get acclimated.

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Roger Murdock · Post #344 » by **Roger Murdock** » Wed Mar 19, 2025 2:24 am

Over/under 10 career all star games from this class combined

FarBeyondDriven · Post #345 » by **FarBeyondDriven** » Wed Mar 19, 2025 7:19 am

Roger Murdock wrote:Over/under 10 career all star games from this class combined

Under. 2024 is as good as most draft classes if you took the top elite one or two guys away. Because it doesn't have those elite guys who usually make multiple all-star appearances it has very little chance to have 10 career all-star games. But that won't mean the class is weak as it should still have some all-stars and it's very deep in quality role players.

Post #346 » by **Jamaaliver** » Wed Mar 19, 2025 12:09 pm

wemby wrote:
Jamaaliver wrote:Steph Castle may need a bit of a break...
Spoiler:

Why then does Risacher have a WORSE +/- on a team with a better record?

I'd say Risacher is trending in the right direction...

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Post #347 » by **tsherkin** » Wed Mar 19, 2025 12:33 pm

Jamaaliver wrote:
I'd say Risacher is trending in the right direction...

Definitely looking better. FT% has improved, he's got a rhythm from the corner, he's even been hitting ATB 3s the last little while. He's shooting something like 60% on 1.0 3PA/g from the left corner and about 38.9% on 1.2 from the right corner over the past 15 games.

And all the time, moving well without the ball.

Slow start, but he's clearly figuring out how to contribute now. He seems very, very comfortable with that three on the left side right near the break, and with the straight corner 3s on either side. That's quite useful.

Post #348 » by **Jamaaliver** » Wed Mar 19, 2025 12:35 pm

Bornstellar wrote:Single game plus minus? Come on man, you're a RealGM mod. You're better than this

Even the mods get to have a little fun with some selective propaganda. :wink:

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Post #349 » by **Jamaaliver** » Wed Mar 19, 2025 12:38 pm

The two leaders for the ROTY race:

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Post #350 » by **Jamaaliver** » Wed Mar 19, 2025 1:45 pm

On/Off Ratings for some prominent rookies this season
Post All Star Break only

Post #351 » by **tsherkin** » Wed Mar 19, 2025 1:56 pm

Jamaaliver wrote:

Jaylen Wells crushing it. 8-)

Jadoogar · Post #352 » by **Jadoogar** » Wed Mar 19, 2025 3:29 pm

Roger Murdock wrote:Over/under 10 career all star games from this class combined

under. i think Risacher, Castle and Sarr have allstar upside but will be team dependent, none of these guys flash all-nba potential.

Post #353 » by **tsherkin** » Wed Mar 19, 2025 3:38 pm

Jadoogar wrote:
Roger Murdock wrote:Over/under 10 career all star games from this class combined

under. i think Risacher, Castle and Sarr have allstar upside but will be team dependent, none of these guys flash all-nba potential.

What do you think Risacher will ultimately leverage which would take him to that level? Right now, he looks like a discount MPJ... which is better than he looked like earlier this season by a wide margin, but still. What makes you think All-NBA?

Jadoogar · Post #354 » by **Jadoogar** » Wed Mar 19, 2025 3:40 pm

Jamaaliver wrote:On/Off Ratings for some prominent rookies this season
Post All Star Break only

most rookies have negative on court impact. Even Wemby has a negative plus/minus.
Of the top 10 scorers in each class, here are the guys that had positive plus/minus (hint, it's normally low usage players on good teams):
2024 - Chet, Jaquez, Amen, Podz (all 4 played for good teams)
2023 - Keggan murray
2022 - Scottie, Mobley (playoff teams)
2021 - Quickley
2020 - Zion (only 2 games), Nunn (+0.9)
2019 - none (not even Luka)
2018 - Donovon Mitchell, Ben Simmons, Tatum (good class)
2017 - Embiid (limited games), Brogdon, Jamal Murray
2016 - KP, Jokic (kinda crazy as a SRP)
2015 - Mirotic
2014 - none
2013 - Harrison Barnes, Chris Copeland

Jadoogar · Post #355 » by **Jadoogar** » Wed Mar 19, 2025 3:42 pm

tsherkin wrote:
Jadoogar wrote:
Roger Murdock wrote:Over/under 10 career all star games from this class combined

under. i think Risacher, Castle and Sarr have allstar upside but will be team dependent, none of these guys flash all-nba potential.

What do you think Risacher will ultimately leverage which would take him to that level? Right now, he looks like a discount MPJ... which is better than he looked like earlier this season by a wide margin, but still. What makes you think All-NBA?

lol i argued the opposite, i don't see All-nba from any of these guys. The on ball creation just looks limited.
I think he could get one of those allstar selections if he's like the third guy on a great team (Jarrett Allen type selection).

Post #356 » by **tsherkin** » Wed Mar 19, 2025 3:46 pm

Jadoogar wrote:lol i argued the opposite, i don't see All-nba from any of these guys.

Whoops. That one's on me and my illiteracy, sorry.

The on ball creation just looks limited.
I think he could get one of those allstar selections if he's like the third guy on a great team (Jarrett Allen type selection).

I don't know if I want to close the door on his AS potential just yet. He's made pretty big strides this season as far as exploiting the corner and he moves well without the ball. If he starts to develop other elements of his game, then it isn't impossible that he might raise his ceiling some. I was pretty low on him early on, but he plays off Trae really well. Runs to his spots in transition, has become pretty dangerous in the corners. Found a hot spot on the left side. Cuts well around penetration. Unscrewed his FT%.

We'll have to see, I guess.

Post #357 » by **Jamaaliver** » Wed Mar 19, 2025 6:18 pm

Picks 1, 2 and 4 in last summer's draft class:

Spoiler:

Post #358 » by **tsherkin** » Wed Mar 19, 2025 6:35 pm

Jamaaliver wrote:Picks 1, 2 and 4 in last summer's draft class:
Spoiler:

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Uninspiring stuff from the top of the draft. Kind of illustrates the weakness of the forever tank: franchise-changing talent isn't there in every draft.

Bornstellar · Post #359 » by **Bornstellar** » Wed Mar 19, 2025 6:38 pm

Castle's efficiency was really poor to start the year but he's really ticked up in the last 20 games or so. He is really good at getting to the FT line but his mediocre FT% is hurting him big time. His 3PT shot was non-existent to start the season but he's made tremendous strides there already. I'm not surprised his on/off ratings are awful since the AS break since it coincides with Victor's season ending injury and the team is just god awful outside of Victor which does no favors for a rookie. The team is laughably bad with Wemby and now without Fox they look like a JV squad most nights

Castle will be fine though, and I think he will be an all-star eventually. He reminds me of Jimmy Butler except he's already better than he was as a rookie.

Post #360 » by **Jamaaliver** » Wed Mar 19, 2025 7:44 pm

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Which 2 rookies are leading the ROY race?