Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...)

[mysticbb]

The coefficient is a number they arrived at, yes, but it is still based on guess work in the end.

Yeah, because 1+1=2 is just a guess too. :roll:

Not sure what you're getting at. If the factor were to be >.44 it would hurt players with higher FT%. So what.

What? Seriously, the amount of true shooting attempts is completely independent on the amount of made free throws. Why should that matter for players with higher FT% at all? The factor will make a difference for players with different FTA/FGA values, but not for players with different FT% values.

Smith right now has a real true shooting rate of 0.490, if we really count all the true shooting attempts (437 so far this season). His TS% is49.5, which is higher, because the 0.44 are reducing his real amount of true shooting attempts to 432.2 instead of 437. And that doesn't have anything to do with his FT%.

If you use stats that don't make use of such artificial skewing- FG%, FT%, 3PM, eFG%- you get a much more accurate picture and are working strictly with the actual raw data.

Well, I get the same picture. ;) The issue is that you don't understand what TS% means, otherwise you would not think that it would be a different overall picture regarding scoring efficiency. TS% is the BEST tool in order to determine the scoring efficiency for players, because it puts the amount of points scored in relation to the true shooting attempts.

[betta1]

The coefficient is a number they arrived at, yes, but it is still based on guess work in the end.

Yeah, because 1+1=2 is just a guess too.

Not sure what you're getting at. If the factor were to be >.44 it would hurt players with higher FT%. So what.

What? Seriously, the amount of true shooting attempts is completely independent on the amount of made free throws. Why should that matter for players with higher FT% at all? The factor will make a difference for players with different FTA/FGA values, but not for players with different FT% values.

Smith right now has a real true shooting rate of 0.490, if we really count all the true shooting attempts (437 so far this season). His TS% is49.5, which is higher, because the 0.44 are reducing his real amount of true shooting attempts to 432.2 instead of 437. And that doesn't have anything to do with his FT%.

If you use stats that don't make use of such artificial skewing- FG%, FT%, 3PM, eFG%- you get a much more accurate picture and are working strictly with the actual raw data.

Well, I get the same picture. The issue is that you don't understand what TS% means, otherwise you would not think that it would be a different overall picture regarding scoring efficiency. TS% is the BEST tool in order to determine the scoring efficiency for players, because it puts the amount of points scored in relation to the true shooting attempts.

You're still evading the fact that .44 is a guess in the end. You show me the formula for arriving the .44 and I'll show you an X-ray of an exposed stat.

If you really think the stat is accurate, go crazy with it for all I care. Getting way OT here.

[mysticbb]

You're still evading the fact that .44 is a guess in the end. You show me the formula for arriving the .44 and I'll show you an X-ray of an exposed stat.

0.44 = (true shooting attempts - FGA)/FTA

That is the formula. The amount of true shooting attempts, FGA and FTA were actually COUNTED! So, if you think that numbers is not correct, go, help yourself and search all pbp data from the last couple of seasons and count the stuff for yourself. Maybe you will realise that this is not just a guess, but well, maybe not.

[betta1]

You're still evading the fact that .44 is a guess in the end. You show me the formula for arriving the .44 and I'll show you an X-ray of an exposed stat.

0.44 = (true shooting attempts - FGA)/FTA

That is the formula. The amount of true shooting attempts, FGA and FTA were actually COUNTED! So, if you think that numbers is not correct, go, help yourself and search all pbp data from the last couple of seasons and count the stuff for yourself. Maybe you will realise that this is not just a guess, but well, maybe not.

Let me guess, you're basing this on the assumption that this is a static number going forward?!

[mysticbb]

Let me guess, you're basing this on the assumption that this is a static number going forward?!

No, I'm basing THAT on the fact that it was really counted. ;)

Anyway, that is pretty stable from season to season. If you feel better, you can use 0.442 instead of 0.44 for this season. :)

[Ruhiel]

at some point small ball enthusiasts in ATL have to realize Josh Smith is not a pf/c. ATL is Way too small.

Smith has a bad matchup and is finally passing up shots. Marvin Williams is 250 lbs with Mike Miller on him and is a complete nonfactor. Only as strong as your weakest link.

If the Hawks weren't so small and worthless on the boards maybe theyd win more and Smith wouldve gotten a nod.

[Ruhiel]

According to Total Player Value, a website that attempts to evaluate the financial worth of NBA players, Tim Duncan, Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings were All-Star snubs. What do you think? From TPV: ”TPV has three adjustments to the rosters released last night. Tim Duncan rates over Dirk Nowitzki for a West backup frontcourt slot. In the East, Josh Smith grades ahead of starting forward Carmelo Anthony, who does not rate as a reserve. Brandon Jennings rates over Deron Williams as a backcourt reserve. The rosters are still subject to change, based on injuries which may occur in the next two weeks. In the East, TPV rates Josh Smith as a starting forward over Carmelo Anthony, who was selected by a fan vote. Smith is grading at a $ 15.7 million player value, higher than his teammate and All-Star reserve Joe Johnson at $ 12.2, and well ahead of Anthony’s $ 12.0. Jennings is grading at $ 11.9 million, clearly ahead of Williams’ $ 9.7 rating. He is slightly behind Anthony, but the selection process requires four guards for each team. Milwaukee’s third-year point guard is averaging 18.9 points and 5.3 assists for an 11-14 team, and has played in all 25 games. He has also been instrumental in both of his team’s upset wins over Miami.”

No mention of Monta Ellis.
http://totalplayervalue.com/tpv-grades- ... tar-snubs/

[dice]

According to Total Player Value, a website that attempts to evaluate the financial worth of NBA players, Tim Duncan, Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings were All-Star snubs. What do you think? From TPV: ”TPV has three adjustments to the rosters released last night. Tim Duncan rates over Dirk Nowitzki for a West backup frontcourt slot. In the East, Josh Smith grades ahead of starting forward Carmelo Anthony, who does not rate as a reserve. Brandon Jennings rates over Deron Williams as a backcourt reserve. The rosters are still subject to change, based on injuries which may occur in the next two weeks. In the East, TPV rates Josh Smith as a starting forward over Carmelo Anthony, who was selected by a fan vote. Smith is grading at a $ 15.7 million player value, higher than his teammate and All-Star reserve Joe Johnson at $ 12.2, and well ahead of Anthony’s $ 12.0. Jennings is grading at $ 11.9 million, clearly ahead of Williams’ $ 9.7 rating. He is slightly behind Anthony, but the selection process requires four guards for each team. Milwaukee’s third-year point guard is averaging 18.9 points and 5.3 assists for an 11-14 team, and has played in all 25 games. He has also been instrumental in both of his team’s upset wins over Miami.”

No mention of Monta Ellis.
http://totalplayervalue.com/tpv-grades- ... tar-snubs/

anyone who pays josh smith 15.7 mil a year is asking to be fired...of course, atlanta paid joe johnson more than that, so...

i will say that you have made the best case of anyone else here for josh smith, but not with this TPV nonsense

rondo sure lookin' like an all-star yesterday. but based on the play before the selections were made, i would've said that picking a backup point in the east is like picking the second best baldwin brother. who really cares, right?