If you could re do the Cade, Green and Mobley draft would you go differently

[ChumboChappati]

#1 Cade and #4 Barnes are looking wrong; both may be taken below their respective position in a redo

[BallerTalk]

Probably should rename this thread "Green vs Everybody"
That seems to be the ongoing theme here.

It's still pretty weird seeing the same usual suspects, who swear Green is the absolute worst, jump to comment anytime anything is posted about him. It's just odd to give that type of attention and energy to a 2nd year player you hold in such low esteem and clearly don't follow.

I do admire the dedication though.

[JonFromVA]

For a less biased opinion on the topic, BBR can easily rank these guys based on career BPM:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2021.html

Eliminating the players who have yet to accumulate 1000 minutes, the rankings would be:

Mobley +1.0
Barnes +0.5
Murphy III +0.5
Hyland -0.1
Grimes -0.4
Wagner -0.6
Jones -0.6
Sengun -0.8
Aldama -0.9
Giddey -1.3
Cunningham -1.5
Robinson-Earl -1.5
Dosunmu -1.9
Kuminga -2.1
Kispert -2.2
Duarte -2.5
Green -2.7

And here's some rankings from just this season (had to look them up manually):

Murphy III +2.7
Mobley +1.8
Aldama +1.8
Hyland +1.1
Sengun -0.1
Robinson-Earl -0.2
Wagner -0.4
Grimes -0.5
Cunningham -0.6
Barnes -0.7
Jones -0.9
Dosunmu -1.7
Kispert -2.0
Giddey -2.1
Green -2.2
Kuminga -4.0
Duarte -4.8

Given +2.0 is supposed to be the level of an average starter, I'd say all these prospects have a long ways to prove they are destined to become stars.

[basketballRob]

For a less biased opinion on the topic, BBR can easily rank these guys based on career BPM:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2021.html

Eliminating the players who have yet to accumulate 1000 minutes, the rankings would be:

Mobley +1.0
Barnes +0.5
Murphy III +0.5
Hyland -0.1
Grimes -0.4
Wagner -0.6
Jones -0.6
Sengun -0.8
Aldama -0.9
Giddey -1.3
Cunningham -1.5
Robinson-Earl -1.5
Dosunmu -1.9
Kuminga -2.1
Kispert -2.2
Duarte -2.5
Green -2.7

And here's some rankings from just this season (had to look them up manually):

Murphy III +2.7
Mobley +1.8
Aldama +1.8
Hyland +1.1
Sengun -0.1
Robinson-Earl -0.2
Wagner -0.4
Grimes -0.5
Cunningham -0.6
Barnes -0.7
Jones -0.9
Dosunmu -1.7
Kispert -2.0
Giddey -2.1
Green -2.2
Kuminga -4.0
Duarte -4.8

Given +2.0 is supposed to be the level of an average starter, I'd say all these prospects have a long ways to prove they are destined to become stars.

Basketball reference uses more of a team aspect. The better the team, the better the BPM.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

[K_chile22]

For a less biased opinion on the topic, BBR can easily rank these guys based on career BPM:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2021.html

Eliminating the players who have yet to accumulate 1000 minutes, the rankings would be:

Mobley +1.0
Barnes +0.5
Murphy III +0.5
Hyland -0.1
Grimes -0.4
Wagner -0.6
Jones -0.6
Sengun -0.8
Aldama -0.9
Giddey -1.3
Cunningham -1.5
Robinson-Earl -1.5
Dosunmu -1.9
Kuminga -2.1
Kispert -2.2
Duarte -2.5
Green -2.7

And here's some rankings from just this season (had to look them up manually):

Murphy III +2.7
Mobley +1.8
Aldama +1.8
Hyland +1.1
Sengun -0.1
Robinson-Earl -0.2
Wagner -0.4
Grimes -0.5
Cunningham -0.6
Barnes -0.7
Jones -0.9
Dosunmu -1.7
Kispert -2.0
Giddey -2.1
Green -2.2
Kuminga -4.0
Duarte -4.8

Given +2.0 is supposed to be the level of an average starter, I'd say all these prospects have a long ways to prove they are destined to become stars.

Basketball reference uses more of a team aspect. The better the team, the better the BPM.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

thats not true, BPM stinks for a variety of reasons but it's just box score stat based, doesn't care about team record, on/off or anything like that


You can't just make stuff up because the stat says something you don't like lol

[basketballRob]

For a less biased opinion on the topic, BBR can easily rank these guys based on career BPM:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2021.html

Eliminating the players who have yet to accumulate 1000 minutes, the rankings would be:

Mobley +1.0
Barnes +0.5
Murphy III +0.5
Hyland -0.1
Grimes -0.4
Wagner -0.6
Jones -0.6
Sengun -0.8
Aldama -0.9
Giddey -1.3
Cunningham -1.5
Robinson-Earl -1.5
Dosunmu -1.9
Kuminga -2.1
Kispert -2.2
Duarte -2.5
Green -2.7

And here's some rankings from just this season (had to look them up manually):

Murphy III +2.7
Mobley +1.8
Aldama +1.8
Hyland +1.1
Sengun -0.1
Robinson-Earl -0.2
Wagner -0.4
Grimes -0.5
Cunningham -0.6
Barnes -0.7
Jones -0.9
Dosunmu -1.7
Kispert -2.0
Giddey -2.1
Green -2.2
Kuminga -4.0
Duarte -4.8

Given +2.0 is supposed to be the level of an average starter, I'd say all these prospects have a long ways to prove they are destined to become stars.

Basketball reference uses more of a team aspect. The better the team, the better the BPM.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

thats not true, BPM stinks for a variety of reasons but it's just box score stat based, doesn't care about team record, on/off or anything like that


You can't just make stuff up because the stat says something you don't like lol

It means plus minus.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

[JonFromVA]

For a less biased opinion on the topic, BBR can easily rank these guys based on career BPM:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2021.html

Eliminating the players who have yet to accumulate 1000 minutes, the rankings would be:

Mobley +1.0
Barnes +0.5
Murphy III +0.5
Hyland -0.1
Grimes -0.4
Wagner -0.6
Jones -0.6
Sengun -0.8
Aldama -0.9
Giddey -1.3
Cunningham -1.5
Robinson-Earl -1.5
Dosunmu -1.9
Kuminga -2.1
Kispert -2.2
Duarte -2.5
Green -2.7

And here's some rankings from just this season (had to look them up manually):

Murphy III +2.7
Mobley +1.8
Aldama +1.8
Hyland +1.1
Sengun -0.1
Robinson-Earl -0.2
Wagner -0.4
Grimes -0.5
Cunningham -0.6
Barnes -0.7
Jones -0.9
Dosunmu -1.7
Kispert -2.0
Giddey -2.1
Green -2.2
Kuminga -4.0
Duarte -4.8

Given +2.0 is supposed to be the level of an average starter, I'd say all these prospects have a long ways to prove they are destined to become stars.

Basketball reference uses more of a team aspect. The better the team, the better the BPM.

It would be cool if the BPM model didn't need the team data, but it's there because ultimately the problem is about divvying up team performance to the individual and it makes the model more accurate.

Jalen Green is still the 12th ranked Rocket this season.

LeBron won ROY as an 18yr old, but wasn't very efficient as a rook (48.8 TS%) and the Cavs only won 35 games; but somehow BPM gave him a +1.7 second to only Carlos Loozer's +2.1 on the team.

Ultimately the model cares whether the player in question is filling up the box score in the right ways.

---

Point here is just that we should be keeping an eye on the entire draft class, not the few guys we were hyped up over going in to the draft.

[JonFromVA]

For a less biased opinion on the topic, BBR can easily rank these guys based on career BPM:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2021.html

Eliminating the players who have yet to accumulate 1000 minutes, the rankings would be:

Mobley +1.0
Barnes +0.5
Murphy III +0.5
Hyland -0.1
Grimes -0.4
Wagner -0.6
Jones -0.6
Sengun -0.8
Aldama -0.9
Giddey -1.3
Cunningham -1.5
Robinson-Earl -1.5
Dosunmu -1.9
Kuminga -2.1
Kispert -2.2
Duarte -2.5
Green -2.7

And here's some rankings from just this season (had to look them up manually):

Murphy III +2.7
Mobley +1.8
Aldama +1.8
Hyland +1.1
Sengun -0.1
Robinson-Earl -0.2
Wagner -0.4
Grimes -0.5
Cunningham -0.6
Barnes -0.7
Jones -0.9
Dosunmu -1.7
Kispert -2.0
Giddey -2.1
Green -2.2
Kuminga -4.0
Duarte -4.8

Given +2.0 is supposed to be the level of an average starter, I'd say all these prospects have a long ways to prove they are destined to become stars.

Basketball reference uses more of a team aspect. The better the team, the better the BPM.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

thats not true, BPM stinks for a variety of reasons but it's just box score stat based, doesn't care about team record, on/off or anything like that


You can't just make stuff up because the stat says something you don't like lol

BPM computes a single team adjustment that's added to every player on the team's raw BPM value.

BPM's model is considered to be about as good as it gets, working with just box score stats that is.

[Bigmagicfan82]

I'm fine if you put Wagner 4, he's awesome.

He's not a better player or prospect than Mobley/Cade/Barnes, it's just that simple.

He's a really good player and that's not a slight but not a single GM in the league is taking Franz over any of those 3 guys

I couldn't imagine any GM taking Barnes over Franz. Last year we had posters claiming no GM would take Suggs and Wagner for Barnes.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

I'll just leave this here...head to head...couldn't imagine huh?!

Scottie 17pts - 14rb - 4ast - 1bl

Franz 9pts - 1rb - 1ast - 0bl

Ouch this didn't age well for you did it...SMH

This proves my point that there are stupid people on the internet. Like why would you hang your hat on one game...smh

Let's update those stats shall we.

Season Stats:

Franz Wagner: Pts: 19.8 Rbs: 4.1 Ast: 3.6 FG%: 49.60% 3PT% 33.60% FT%: 86.50%
Scottie Barns: Pts: 13.9 Rbs: 7.0 Ast: 4.6 FG%: 44.40% 3PT% 32.20% FT%: 69.40%

Head to Head (3 games)
Franz Wagner: Pts:22.0 Rbs: 3.0 ASt: 2.33 FG%: 59.46% 3PT% 50.0% FT%: 88.89%
Scottie Barns: Pts: 11.3 Rbs: 8.67 Ast: 2.67 FG%: 46.67% 3PT% 16.67% FT%: 71.43%

So essentially Franz is a better scorer and a more efficient scorer than Barnes.

When they went head to head Franz's points and shooting percentages went up while Barnes' points and 3pt% went down.

[Bigmagicfan82]

If I had to redraft 2021 it would be:

1) Franz: He has been outstanding and has progressed this season. Totally an underrated player.
2) Green: He is all the scorer he was hyped up to be. He just needs to lean how to play defense. All this he is inefficient is a bunch of hogwash.
3) Mobley: He is a great talent and will be one of the top bigs in the league but I not sure he can lead a team to a championship.

4) Cade: I always felt that Cade was overhyped. He is an inefficient, high volume, scorer. I don't see him as a #1 on a championship team. I also don't see how him and Ivey will exist long term. They are both high volume, inefficient, scores.

5) Josh Giddy: He will be a top PG in this league

6) Barnes: I like Barnes and I think he will be a good player. Will he be a star player? Nope. A great role player? Yes. I think he was overhyped last season and he didn't deserve the ROTY award. I know the Raptor fans are sensitive about this, but is not the guy to build around. He is a complimentary piece. Think Kenyon Martin or Mike Miller.

[tooler]

Probably should rename this thread "Green vs Everybody"
That seems to be the ongoing theme here.

To be fair, Franz and Green might be the only interesting players to debate right now. Mobley is still who he is, Barnes got worse, and Cade is injured. Who else are we supposed to talk about?

I still think people are talking past each other because some are thinking in terms of how they're playing now, and some are thinking in terms of a hypothetical ceiling, which is just bench racing and can mean whatever someone wants.

For the record, I don't expect anyone to change their draft order because Franz is having a good season. If you're a RealGM and you want to draft on potential, go for it. Just know that the floor is rising...

[AaronB]

Basketball reference uses more of a team aspect. The better the team, the better the BPM.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

thats not true, BPM stinks for a variety of reasons but it's just box score stat based, doesn't care about team record, on/off or anything like that


You can't just make stuff up because the stat says something you don't like lol

BPM computes a single team adjustment that's added to every player on the team's raw BPM value.

BPM's model is considered to be about as good as it gets, working with just box score stats that is.

Just so we are clear, BPM says Bol Bol, Cole Anthony and Mo Bamba are having better years than Franz or Banchero.

I will take "BPM is a terrible stat" for 100 Alex. (Jeopardy reference)

[Magiclee]

Probably should rename this thread "Green vs Everybody"
That seems to be the ongoing theme here.

To be fair, Franz and Green might be the only interesting players to debate right now. Mobley is still who he is, Barnes got worse, and Cade is injured. Who else are we supposed to talk about?

I still think people are talking past each other because some are thinking in terms of how they're playing now, and some are thinking in terms of a hypothetical ceiling, which is just bench racing and can mean whatever someone wants.

For the record, I don't expect anyone to change their draft order because Franz is having a good season. If you're a RealGM and you want to draft on potential, go for it. Just know that the floor is rising...

If I were a GM and got a do-over today I'd take Franz because of what we already know. I won't lose my job picking Franz no matter how good Green turns out. But if I was told I have to have the best player by year 4? I love me some Franz but I'd guess Green is the best player by year 4. All this efficiency stuff is nonsense. He's 20 and he's not super efficient. So what? It's great that Franz is already efficient but I've seen enough of Green to see that he's closer to becoming "that guy" than not.

The point is, I understand anyone who says Franz, Green, or even Mobley. They all have excellent things to point to already. However, there are no other legitimate arguments today. No one else cracks this discussion without injuries or a Steve Nash break out at 28 years old.

[tooler]

I asked a similar question on our board about whether you'd draft Paolo or Franz. The initial response is Paolo because of upside. So I respect people that see the same upside with Jalen Green. All good.

[ChumboChappati]

Mobley, Green and Franz are the top players of that draft and should go 1,2,3 in a redo. Then the 2nd tier players come.

[QingJames]

It's not a sample size. Lets talk about last year then.

Franz was more efficient last year, while playing more games than Green. We get it Green is a freak athlete that looks cool, but not every star needs to be a freak athlete. You guys would be the same GM's that would draft Ayton over Luka because he isnt atheltic.

Wagner was more efficient last year..


By one percentage point in ts% and efg% while Green had a higher output.

Is that really enough for you to claim one player is significantly more efficient than another?

That's true and 1 point per 100 possessions in scoring separate them but Green is going to be a 30 ppg player and Franz a low 20's.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

Green is going to be a 30ppg scorer and negatively impact winning a la Beal, LaVine, etc.

Franz might never average 25 and yet he already has demonstrated his capacity to positively impact a team in many ways other than scoring, and on both ends of the floor.

Franz is the kind of guy you want as your tertiary option on a championship team. Green is the kind of guy you want if you like barely making the playoffs and getting swept when you do.

[Jadoogar]

1. Mobley - same as last year. Elite defensive potential, offensive game coming along. Could be Anthony Davis
2. Franz - playing on a weird team with little spacing and still putting up huge numbers. Great shot making ability
3. Green - teams will always need someone who can score and especially players who can create their own shots
4. Scottie - disappointing season so far but it's not as disastrous as it's made out to be. He's been less aggressive this year and worse defensively but still a good playmaker and rebounder. Just needs to assert himself and not settle for midrange jumpers as often
5. Cade - injury is definitely concerning and he's going to miss a year of development now
6. Sengun - could be a sabonis/JV type of player which is great for where he was selected
7. Giddey - good 3rd-4th starter on a competitive team. Playmaking forwards are always valuable. I haven't seen too much of him tbh
8. Kuminga - the potential is there, idk if he'll be able to realize it on the Warriors but they are giving him more opportunities. Has all the physical tools to be success

[cam24thomas]

IF Giddey develops a 3-point-shot, he'll go right up the list and be an All-NBA-type player. His versatility is elite.

[Farhan0311]

Wagner was more efficient last year..


By one percentage point in ts% and efg% while Green had a higher output.

Is that really enough for you to claim one player is significantly more efficient than another?

That's true and 1 point per 100 possessions in scoring separate them but Green is going to be a 30 ppg player and Franz a low 20's.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

Green is going to be a 30ppg scorer and negatively impact winning a la Beal, LaVine, etc.

Franz might never average 25 and yet he already has demonstrated his capacity to positively impact a team in many ways other than scoring, and on both ends of the floor.

Franz is the kind of guy you want as your tertiary option on a championship team. Green is the kind of guy you want if you like barely making the playoffs and getting swept when you do.

what were Beal and Lavine doing at 20 exactly?


What's funny is the Rockets with a team of 19 and 20 year olds with literally one regular rotation player above 22 (Eric Gordon) has actually had a winning record the past 10 games with Green at age 20 during that stretch averaging like 25 ppg on like 58% ts and taking over games and beating teams like the Sixers, Suns, Bucks etc.


I don't see the Magic having a single 10 game stretch having a .500 or better record and yet Franz is a year older, has a rookie of the year teammate and more players above the age of 22 which means hey probably are more competent. So why hasn't that translated to wins with Franz.


Screaming "wins" for a player on a 8-20 team is pathetic.


Honestly you should be ashamed of yourself for pigeon holing a 20 year old showing immense promise as a career loser. Such a dumb ass take.

[ocelot17]

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