2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2

[Thundershock88]

Russell with 17, 18 rebounds, and 17 assists tonight. No big deal.

4 for 18 with 6 turnovers.
Stealing rebounds from the bigs is not impressive. It's easy to get assists when you have an insane usage rate. Also, you were playing at home against the 2nd worst team in the league so stat accumulation should be taken with a grain of salt.

You are on one hand saying that usage rate is inflating his numbers, but on the other hand using his turnover rate as if it precedes everything. Also, I love how the opposition is mentioned. Who else has done this against the 2nd worst team at home?

[laika]

It actually does. Because you said assists would go up with usage. Usage and assists are not related. Unless you see assists in that formula.

As well, if you'd care to see Westbrook's teammates numbers with and without him, please let me know how he's getting stats at the expense of teammates. I'd be interested.

You don't seem to be understanding what I am saying. A factor does not have to be in a formula in order to correlate with the output of that formula.

No one is saying that the Thunder have a good bench. But even with Westbrook on the court the Thunder aren't much better than mediocre. Westbrook isn't the best player ever stuck with awful starters. He shares some of the blame for the mediocrity.

[bondom34]

It actually does. Because you said assists would go up with usage. Usage and assists are not related. Unless you see assists in that formula.

As well, if you'd care to see Westbrook's teammates numbers with and without him, please let me know how he's getting stats at the expense of teammates. I'd be interested.

You don't seem to be understanding what I am saying. A factor does not have to be in a formula in order to correlate with the output of that formula.

No one is saying that the Thunder have a good bench. But even with Westbrook on the court the Thunder aren't much better than mediocre. Westbrook isn't the best player ever stuck with awful starters. He shares some of the blame for the mediocrity.

No, I'm understanding. What you said was wrong. Entirely. Assists do not correlate to usage. DeMarcus Cousins has few assists.

And he's not sharing the blame for how bad the rest of the team is. Look at the team without him on court. And honestly ask yourself if you think he's to blame.

[laika]

Russell with 17, 18 rebounds, and 17 assists tonight. No big deal.

4 for 18 with 6 turnovers.
Stealing rebounds from the bigs is not impressive. It's easy to get assists when you have an insane usage rate. Also, you were playing at home against the 2nd worst team in the league so stat accumulation should be taken with a grain of salt.

You are on one hand saying that usage rate is inflating his numbers, but on the other hand using his turnover rate as if it precedes everything. Also, I love how the opposition is mentioned. Who else has done this against the 2nd worst team at home?

Westbrook has easily the highest usage rate in history and is on pace for the second most turnovers ever(congratulations, Harden). Even if you slightly discount his turnover rate due to extremely high usage there is a lot of room for criticism on both counts.

No one else will do it because other teams have sensibly concluded that rebounding just isn't important for a PG. How do you know that any benefit that Westbrook gains from his rebounds isn't lost by Westbrook being out of position?

[laika]

No, I'm understanding. What you said was wrong. Entirely. Assists do not correlate to usage. DeMarcus Cousins has few assists.

And he's not sharing the blame for how bad the rest of the team is. Look at the team without him on court. And honestly ask yourself if you think he's to blame.

I would be willing to bet a lot of money that assists do correlate with usage. But since no one would be dumb enough to take that bet I'm unlikely to put in the work to absolutely prove that I am right.

FYI, Cousins has a lot of assists. He is second only to Green among PFs.

I'm not saying Westbrook is to blame for the front office producing a lousy bench. He is partly to blame for the Thunder starters being barely above average though.

[bondom34]

No, I'm understanding. What you said was wrong. Entirely. Assists do not correlate to usage. DeMarcus Cousins has few assists.

And he's not sharing the blame for how bad the rest of the team is. Look at the team without him on court. And honestly ask yourself if you think he's to blame.

I would be willing to bet a lot of money that assists do correlate with usage. But since no one would be dumb enough to take that bet I'm unlikely to put in the work to absolutely prove that I am right.

FYI, Cousins has a lot of assists. He is second only to Green among PFs.

I'm not saying Westbrook is to blame for the front office producing a lousy bench. He is partly to blame for the Thunder starters being barely above average though.

Sort of because the starters have one talented offensive player? The reason his on court rating isn't as good is because he's got a bad surrounding cast. Unless you think he was somehow much better a year ago, which makes no sense.

Also, you didn't say "correlates" you said it is high because of his usage. If you'd care to plot all 500 players, go for it. I'd like to see results. But assists are not involved with usage rate. They are separate measures. You not copping to being wrong is not helping that. Just own it, it doesn't hurt.

Edit:

Cousins ranks 2nd in usage
He ranks 43 in assist percentage.
Embiid is 3rd.
He ranks 124th.

So in a plot of Usage and assist percentages, there's 2 points.

[QPR]

Harden's shooting clips right across the board are actually quite similar, and his turnovers are higher. Crazy what a few extra wins and a suitable system/coach can do for the perception of someone's efficiency.

Anyone who can't appreciate the season Westbrook is having and what he's doing for this OKC team will never give him due credit. That they are eight games over .500 despite him playing only 34 minutes a night, given what happens when he sits, is crazy. He's the best fourth quarter player in the league too, which correlates to OKC being one of the top clutch teams in the league (games within 5 points in last 5 minutes).

He is almost single-handedly willing his team into the playoffs, and people still want to level the lazy "too many turnovers/usage too high/poor shooter" arguments against him?

[RELL_MARLEE]

1. The Claw
2. The King
3. The Beard
4. The Brodie
5. The Cupcake

[Screwston]

So I've been thinking about it lately:

Why isn't LeBron a top contender for the MVP right now?

He has 2 allstars (Harden has none), n Houston is gonna finish with a better record than Cle, thats why.

How do you figure that? And having all-star teammates hasn't stopped LeBron from winning MVP before.

Yea but he was also playing alot better. Harden n Westbrook are having better seasons than him, simple as that. LeBron is still the best player in the world but we all know he's cruising 'till the playoffs, so since its a regular season award, there are actually guys who put in work every night, n are carrying a bigger load.

[ThePersianFreak]

He has 2 allstars (Harden has none), n Houston is gonna finish with a better record than Cle, thats why.

How do you figure that? And having all-star teammates hasn't stopped LeBron from winning MVP before.

Yea but he was also playing alot better. Harden n Westbrook are having better seasons than him, simple as that. LeBron is still the best player in the world but we all know he's cruising 'till the playoffs, so since its a regular season award, there are actually guys who put in work every night, n are carrying a bigger load.

Love is injured though, so it can help LeBron's case. And the way LeBron has played in Feb he's closing the gap (statistically).
I think right now it's:

Harden
LeBron/Westbrook/Leonard
.
.
.
Others

[ThePersianFreak]

He has 2 allstars (Harden has none), n Houston is gonna finish with a better record than Cle, thats why.

How do you figure that? And having all-star teammates hasn't stopped LeBron from winning MVP before.

Yea but he was also playing alot better. Harden n Westbrook are having better seasons than him, simple as that. LeBron is still the best player in the world but we all know he's cruising 'till the playoffs, so since its a regular season award, there are actually guys who put in work every night, n are carrying a bigger load.

Love is injured though, so it can help LeBron's case. And the way LeBron has played in Feb he's closing the gap (statistically).
I think right now it's:

Harden
LeBron/Westbrook/Leonard
.
.
.
Others

[K_chile22]

Harden's shooting clips right across the board are actually quite similar, and his turnovers are higher. Crazy what a few extra wins and a suitable system/coach can do for the perception of someone's efficiency.

What does Harden being similar to his career efficiency have to do with comparing him to Westbrook? His individual efficiency is miles better, even if it's not miles better than it usually is for him. He's also having his most efficient scoring season since 2014 while averaging over 11 assists.

[K_chile22]

Players in league history to average 25 and 10 with a 60% TS:

James Harden with 28.9 and 11.3 on 61.5% TS

That's it. That's the whole list.

[laika]

Harden's shooting clips right across the board are actually quite similar, and his turnovers are higher. Crazy what a few extra wins and a suitable system/coach can do for the perception of someone's efficiency.

Anyone who can't appreciate the season Westbrook is having and what he's doing for this OKC team will never give him due credit. That they are eight games over .500 despite him playing only 34 minutes a night, given what happens when he sits, is crazy. He's the best fourth quarter player in the league too, which correlates to OKC being one of the top clutch teams in the league (games within 5 points in last 5 minutes).

He is almost single-handedly willing his team into the playoffs, and people still want to level the lazy "too many turnovers/usage too high/poor shooter" arguments against him?

Those 3 are all valid arguments for why Westbrook's impact isn't as high as Westbrook fans want to believe. You can't just arbitrarily dismiss arguments you don't like.
We've already been over usage and turnover percentage. Westbrook trails massively behind the other candidates in scoring efficiency also.

TS%-
Durant- .653
Curry- .632
Leonard- .617
James- .616
Harden- .615
Westbrook-.542(below the league average)

Also, willing your team into the playoffs has historically been given nearly zero credit in the MVP race. You nearly always need to lead your team to a top 5 record in the league.

[laika]

Sort of because the starters have one talented offensive player? The reason his on court rating isn't as good is because he's got a bad surrounding cast. Unless you think he was somehow much better a year ago, which makes no sense.

Also, you didn't say "correlates" you said it is high because of his usage. If you'd care to plot all 500 players, go for it. I'd like to see results. But assists are not involved with usage rate. They are separate measures. You not copping to being wrong is not helping that. Just own it, it doesn't hurt.

Edit:

Cousins ranks 2nd in usage
He ranks 43 in assist percentage.
Embiid is 3rd.
He ranks 124th.

So in a plot of Usage and assist percentages, there's 2 points.

I didn't say Westbrook was much better a year ago. We can't say if the Thunder would be better if you replaced him with Curry/James/Harden etc. What we do know is that players in Westbrook's situation NEVER win the MVP, which is a sensible heuristic that avoids giving too much credit to players that put up big stats but don't contribute as much as people think to winning.

I don't know why you are persisting in your absurdly wrong claim about assist%.

Here are the top 10 in usage and assist%. If the two stats are not correlated then you would expect to see an average assist% ranking of around 220 here. The average is massively lower at 70, which means usage and assist% are strongly correlated.

1.Westbrook-1
2.Cousins-44
3.Embiid-132
4.Derozan-103
5.Harden-2
6.I Thomas-24
7.A Davis-207
8.K Leonard-131
9.Lillard-51
10.Wall-4

Philosophically speaking it is nearly impossible to absolutely prove causation. But when you have a strong correlation and an obvious explanation (players with the ball in their hands almost have to get more assists) then it is extremely likely that there is a causative effect between high usage and a higher assist%.

[bondom34]

Sort of because the starters have one talented offensive player? The reason his on court rating isn't as good is because he's got a bad surrounding cast. Unless you think he was somehow much better a year ago, which makes no sense.

Also, you didn't say "correlates" you said it is high because of his usage. If you'd care to plot all 500 players, go for it. I'd like to see results. But assists are not involved with usage rate. They are separate measures. You not copping to being wrong is not helping that. Just own it, it doesn't hurt.

Edit:

Cousins ranks 2nd in usage
He ranks 43 in assist percentage.
Embiid is 3rd.
He ranks 124th.

So in a plot of Usage and assist percentages, there's 2 points.

I didn't say Westbrook was much better a year ago. We can't say if the Thunder would be better if you replaced him with Curry/James/Harden etc. What we do know is that players in Westbrook's situation NEVER win the MVP, which is a sensible heuristic that avoids giving too much credit to players that put up big stats but don't contribute as much as people think to winning.

I don't know why you are persisting in your absurdly wrong claim about assist%.

Here are the top 10 in usage and assist%. If the two stats are not correlated then you would expect to see an average assist% ranking of around 220 here. The average is massively lower at 70, which means usage and assist% are strongly correlated.

1.Westbrook-1
2.Cousins-44
3.Embiid-132
4.Derozan-103
5.Harden-2
6.I Thomas-24
7.A Davis-207
8.K Leonard-131
9.Lillard-51
10.Wall-4

Philosophically speaking it is nearly impossible to absolutely prove causation. But when you have a strong correlation and an obvious explanation (players with the ball in their hands almost have to get more assists) then it is extremely likely that there is a causative effect between high usage and a higher assist%.

I never said he'd win MVP. I said you were wrong in your assertions which you were.

You just showed 10 players leading in usage, with ranks in the 100s in assist percentage. If you plot that you get this.

http://imgur.com/a/45ASL

If you'd care to explain this trend line please do.

There's no correlation there, you can just own it. You're misusing and or misunderstanding statistics here, usage has zero to do with assists and your insisting on it isn't making it true.

As for his impact not being as high as people "want to believe" maybe because he's got a team who'd be bottom 3 with him on the bench as a playoff team, while 2nd in ORPM and top 10 in RPM (metrics generally considered "impact" metrics) would lead those to believe he's had a high impact. Being near the top in "impact" metrics generally means high impact.

[Doctor MJ]

He has 2 allstars (Harden has none), n Houston is gonna finish with a better record than Cle, thats why.

[/quote]

I missed this before and feel silly, because it's a simple, but powerful point, if indeed it happens like that. If Houston surpasses Cleveland's record with Harden being excellent the whole season, then that doesn't just make it hard for LeBron to beat him, it makes it hard for anyone.

Thing is though, Houston's 10-8 in the second half of the season so far. If Houston plays the rest of the year like they did in December Harden wins this thing easily, but if his team stumbles down the stretch, even if they don't lose the 3 seed, people are going to be looking at other options. If Cleveland manages to stumble even further, as they would in order to end up with more losses than Houston, LeBron won't be a serious option, of course, but frankly I could see Kawhi or Westbrook getting serious play in his place.

Regardless, as things stand now, Cleveland does have a better record than Houston, and are doing so in a context where everyone knows the team has basically nothing to prove. If Cleveland coasts to the finish as a #1 seed with 55-60 wins and LeBron putting up stats that are at least comparable to other top players, I think we're going to see more people siding with LeBron.

[MisterHibachi]

He has 2 allstars (Harden has none), n Houston is gonna finish with a better record than Cle, thats why.

How do you figure that? And having all-star teammates hasn't stopped LeBron from winning MVP before.

Yea but he was also playing alot better. Harden n Westbrook are having better seasons than him, simple as that. LeBron is still the best player in the world but we all know he's cruising 'till the playoffs, so since its a regular season award, there are actually guys who put in work every night, n are carrying a bigger load.

He is averaging ~38 minutes a game, so I don't know if he's really coasting. He's obviously not putting in Finals effort, but that doesn't mean he's not trying. Just because he makes it look easy doesn't mean it is.

And +/- stats say he's carrying a pretty big load.

[laika]

Here are the top 10 in usage and assist%. If the two stats are not correlated then you would expect to see an average assist% ranking of around 220 here. The average is massively lower at 70, which means usage and assist% are strongly correlated.

1.Westbrook-1
2.Cousins-44
3.Embiid-132
4.Derozan-103
5.Harden-2
6.I Thomas-24
7.A Davis-207
8.K Leonard-131
9.Lillard-51
10.Wall-4

I never said he'd win MVP. I said you were wrong in your assertions which you were.

You just showed 10 players leading in usage, with ranks in the 100s in assist percentage. If you plot that you get this.

http://imgur.com/a/45ASL

If you'd care to explain this trend line please do.

There's no correlation there, you can just own it. You're misusing and or misunderstanding statistics here, usage has zero to do with assists and your insisting on it isn't making it true.

The explanation is that your graph is completely wrong. There are about 440 players in the sample. The X and Y axis should both be 440. All of the points are in the bottom left quadrant, which is exactly what you would expect if usage and assist% were strongly correlated.

This is starting to get weird. You are absolutely wrong about this, but don't appear to be capable of seeing it.

[K_chile22]

Basketball Reference's model (purely numeric, using wins and individual numbers, no narrative) has Harden as the runaway favorite, nearly 7x higher probability than Westbrook