MrBigShot wrote:TheZachAttack wrote:reanimator wrote:
Have you watched a lot of Cade? To me, his biggest issues are drawing fouls and consistently finishing over length though he shows flashes. I haven't seen much issue creating separation for jumpers. IMO a bigger Dlo is definitely underselling his skillset but I guess we will see. The kid is also going to be a pretty good 2 way player also.
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Def appreciate the thought you put into this but stylistically the comparison just isn't there imo. Russell is a jump shooter by necessity; his movements are more labored and he just can't consistently beat people off the dribble in isolation to get to the rim. Cade, even with all of the defensive attention and double teams he gets, can pretty consistently get into the paint when he wants to. He doesn't jump high or explode the way a guy like Jalen Green does, but he's pretty fast with the ball and has a deceptively quick first step. The extra 2 inches in height and longer wingspan make a pretty big difference too.
Cade takes about 18% of his shots at the rim, and about 41% of his shots in the paint in total. He can get there consistently, but he has a lot of work to do when it comes to finishing efficiently. In comparison, Russell takes about 11% of his shots at the rim and 24% in total of his shot attempts in the paint this season. To put those numbers into perspective, LeBron for his career takes ~48% of his shots in the paint. That isn't taking into account that DLo gets to play with KAT, who is one of the best shooting bigs ever. Olynyk has been out most of the season for us, and Cade's had Isiah Stewart at center who is a non-shooter and not much of a threat offensively...if he had the luxury of running pick and roll with KAT, he'd have a lot more spacing to work with.
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I apologize in advance for the lack of formatting I will fix it later.
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Thank you for the response. Good data and that does suggest some differences stylistically however I do still think it may be a little bit cosmetic. Maybe it is an indicator of a future trend that Cade will build upon and it's a suggestion that Cade's additional height & frame may open up some things for Cade beyond what D Lo's frame allows him to do.
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I do want to pushback on the two comments about differences between D Lo and Cunningham as well as KAT. There’s some truth to the necessity statement although I think D Lo could get to the rim more than he does now. D Lo, when he played for Brooklyn had a split that looked a lot more like Cunningham’s.
D Lo’s game has trended towards jump shooting as he’s aged (relatively common) this is true. However, a lot of it also league dynamics as well as the roster construction around him. If you have a perimeter player without elite athleticism, one of the biggest things that can help that player is to play with an Uber athletic rim running 5 who can set good screens and play above the rim. This allows the perimeter player to probe and start to attack the defense and force them to make a choice between the ball-handler and the roller. The roller is also an outlet for the perimeter ball-handler. The biggest issue when you have a perimeter player who has limitations from consistency getting to the rim when they want because of athleticism or handle reasons is that they aren’t able to get all of the way to the rim if there’s traffic and they end up picking up their dribble in the paint where the opposing teams bigs step up.
Well, if the opposing teams big steps up and they can’t get to the paint the rim running 5 is there to relieve pressure for an easy dunk. Running PnR effectively does take skill and isn’t something everyone can because it requires timing and angles as well as patience and quick decision making. However, what I am trying to say is that yes it is true that D Lo’s lack of athleticism prevents him from being able to get to the rim when he wants against any defender at any time.
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However, that’s not the whole story. The Wolves roster construction with Towns & Edwards and no-rim running 5 has a huge impact. Towns prefers to pop in 2-man game sets (for obvious reasons) and in a general sense D Lo has become fhe #3 option behind Towns and Edwards. His role has changed and that requires more spacing the floor more often. There are other reasons as well.
I would and will argue below that Cade has the same limitations or at least similar.
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I took a deeper look at the numbers. You are right that D Lo is not the perfect profile for Cade. For example, Cade tries to drive it to the rim a lot more than I realized. Cade averages around 14 or 14.5 drives per 36 min. This puts Cade ahead of most scoring wings/guards and above average when compared to the leaders (many who run offenses around their rim penetration).
Cade’s 18% of shots at the rim is on the lower side and resembles other wings who take a lot of perimeter or midrange jump shots. However, it’s also not really something to be concerned about in terms of projecting his future. When Cade gets to the rim he’s way below average (50%) especially for bigger wings. In addition, he has one of the lowest FT rates for a perimeter player especially for one with his usage in the league. He also takes one of the highest percentages of 3-10 foot shots in the league.
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When analyzing the outcomes from his drives, the biggest takeaway is that he is well below average in terms of how many drives he converts into attempts at the rim. Could there be team factors at play there, is it playstyle, or is it a limitation? I’m not sure. However, the data suggests that he actually attempts to drive the ball a lot but somewhere between 1/2 and 2/3s of those drives end with Cade either settling or unable to get all the way to the rim (shooting a 3-10 foot shot at 46%) unable to get to the rim and forced to make a non-threatening pass to reset.
Cade gets to the rim only 4 times a game which is a below average amount. Building on the narrative that he struggles to get to the rim and put defenders on their heals when he does so is his 50% FG% at the rim. Even when he gets to the rim, he is not putting himself in positions for easy finishes.
The last Cade point I want to make for now is that Cade is awful in transition (5th percentile) despite it being ~20% of his touches and he does almost nothing offensively without the ball outside of spacing the flood. He has virtually no touches this year as a cutter, roll man, nor does he emphasize creating offensive rebounds and second chance points.
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I understand pushback on the narrative around Cade’s athleticism issues. For me, this profile is something a little bit more telling than just him being raw as a player. A lot of these trends are the same issues he had in college against even smaller and less athletic competition. Cade will not ever be able to be an explosive athlete that can play above the rim, or outrun opponents in transition, or even consistently beat his man in the half court to get to the rim.
That doesn’t mean that he won’t be a high impact half court player. I just think it means that Cunningham may not be a player whose half court game is about getting to the rim. I think that’s totally fine, however where I start to make D Lo comparisons is when you combine some of the projection that appears obvious with limitations around the rim, in transition, and at the line… you start to describe a player that has really shrank their margin for error to maintain elite efficiency.
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I think many fans have been deluding themselves about Cunningham since he came out of high school. Game after game media & fans will spin this narrative around Cunningham being the next Luka or the next in a list of wing sized players that can score at all 3 levels at will. People are trying to talk the hype narrative into existence. I want to make it clear that I think that he will be a great player.
However, it’s also important to recognize that Cunningham has consistently shown both his strengths and weaknesses at every level since HS and into the pros. Cunningham has NEVER been able to create his own shot at the rim. Consistently, even against mediocre college teams without any true NBA sized wings or bigs… Cunningham showed that he was not explosive enough to beat defenses to spots and he doesn’t have Kyrie level dribble to break people down and get through traffic.
Cunningham struggled to shoot in the mid-40% from 2 in college. He consistently struggled to get to the rim and finish at the rim. Cunningham played like Russell in college and was forced by necessity to score through perimeter shotmaking—and to his credit he did. Cunningham CAN create his own shot, it’s just that him creating his own shot is a sequence of two or three dribbles that result in creating space for a 3 points or getting into or near the paint and then using his frame and touch to make shots.
The reason that Cunningham both in college and the pros, despite his high basketball IQ and feel for the game is because he is not blessed with the athleticism to be able to do that… similar to Russell. That doesn’t mean that he can never get to the rim or even multiple times per game get to the rim. What that means is that in aggregate Cunningham will struggle to finish at the rim efficiently and the majority of his shot attempts and scoring will come outside of 3 feet from the rim.
I don’t mean this comparison as an insult and in fact the opposite. I know Russell gets a lot of hate by mainstream fans, but look how good of a shotmaker he is being asked to be a primary ball-handler but the also space off of other stars and add value in either type of offense. These numbers are from last year which are closer to his career average.
Russell can either pull up from anywhere in half court offense at an elite or borderline elite level almost touching 40%. It doesn’t matter if it’s catch and shoot or if he’s pulling up in either case he’s going to hit it. I believe that Russell has been at higher percentages in some years but he was at about 40-41% on shots off the dribble inside the arc.
In addition, while he doesn’t get the line a ton… Russell does a good job of still being able to draw fouls despite being a jump shooter. These are all things that I think Cunningham will be able to consistently. I think a lot of Cunningham’s half court scoring will come from this as well.
Catch & Shoot - Per 36
6pts
57% eFG
39% 3pt (5.1 att)
Pull-Up
9.5pts
48% eFG
38% 3pt (4.3 att)
40% 2pt (5.5 att)
Perimeter shotmaker
15.5pts
38.5% 3pt (9.5att)
40% 2pt (5.5att)
50.5 eFG%
Free Throws
3.4 pts
4.5att
77% FT
Russell is actually an underrated playmaker. He makes a lot of great passes. I think he could manage game flows a little bit better in general. He actually has played much better as a PG during his shooting slump this season (though he’s shot at his career percentages or better for a long stretch now after a cold start)
Russell has established a baseline with the Wolves of 7.5-8apg/36 min & 3-3.5 TO/35 min which is equates to roughly a 33.5% ast% and a 13.5 TO%. Including Jokic, Sabonis and point forwards Russell has become a borderline top 10 passer that also limits TOs.
In my opinion, Cade is a player who can likely handle a lot of running half court offenses but he isn’t a true PG. Russell is a similar player that at times has played more in either role as a primary or secondary ball handler. To me, if Cade develops into a primary ball-handler with PG skills af Russell’s level who also has the flexibility to play with another primary ball-handler that’s a win.
Russell is thought of as a ball-hog and selfish by some, but since Golden State and joining the loves he’s decreased his usage from 32% all the way down to 26%. Given that Cunningham’s usage rate is also 26 if makes it easy to compare play. I think there are definitely parallels that between the two players that should help folks understand Cunningham’s path forward and improvements.
Cunningham has a good chance of being a better player than Russell. He is a few inches bigger than Russell which should help on the defensive end and might open up areas on the court (like inside 3–10 feet) that could be an area on the court that he could exploit that Russell couldn’t. Cunningham’s size will also naturally allow him to fit in more lineups and offer more flexibility. Cunningham’s size & either increased willingness or ability to drive into the paint more often (though Russell did that more early on) also do open up the potential for Cunningham to have a higher free throw rate than D Lo.
To me, a player of D Lo’s caliber offensively that can play multiple positions and/or is a wing on both sides of the ball as an average or better defender alone is arguably a top 25-30 player at least. If Cunningham can figure out ways to be more impactful near the rim & get to the free throw line… then that’s a top 10-15 player.
Ultimately, I made the comparison because I still do think they play similar roles. I think that they have similar strengths and weaknesses and Russell, especially this version of Russell running the offense and as a defender is actually a good study for Cunningham.
