If you could re do the Cade, Green and Mobley draft would you go differently

[Farhan0311]

Probably should rename this thread "Green vs Everybody"
That seems to be the ongoing theme here.

To be fair, Franz and Green might be the only interesting players to debate right now. Mobley is still who he is, Barnes got worse, and Cade is injured. Who else are we supposed to talk about?

I still think people are talking past each other because some are thinking in terms of how they're playing now, and some are thinking in terms of a hypothetical ceiling, which is just bench racing and can mean whatever someone wants.

For the record, I don't expect anyone to change their draft order because Franz is having a good season. If you're a RealGM and you want to draft on potential, go for it. Just know that the floor is rising...

If I were a GM and got a do-over today I'd take Franz because of what we already know. I won't lose my job picking Franz no matter how good Green turns out. But if I was told I have to have the best player by year 4? I love me some Franz but I'd guess Green is the best player by year 4. All this efficiency stuff is nonsense. He's 20 and he's not super efficient. So what? It's great that Franz is already efficient but I've seen enough of Green to see that he's closer to becoming "that guy" than not.

The point is, I understand anyone who says Franz, Green, or even Mobley. They all have excellent things to point to already. However, there are no other legitimate arguments today. No one else cracks this discussion without injuries or a Steve Nash break out at 28 years old.

This is probably is the most reasonable take.

Quite frankly, between Mobley, Green, Franz and even Cade because it's not fair to dismiss his potential to still be the best player in the class because of a lost injury season, it's still up in the air who will be the best player in the draft will be when they finish developing but it's safe to say it's going to be one of these 4.

Right now we are just arguing hypotheticals.

[QingJames]

That's true and 1 point per 100 possessions in scoring separate them but Green is going to be a 30 ppg player and Franz a low 20's.

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Green is going to be a 30ppg scorer and negatively impact winning a la Beal, LaVine, etc.

Franz might never average 25 and yet he already has demonstrated his capacity to positively impact a team in many ways other than scoring, and on both ends of the floor.

Franz is the kind of guy you want as your tertiary option on a championship team. Green is the kind of guy you want if you like barely making the playoffs and getting swept when you do.

what were Beal and Lavine doing at 20 exactly?


What's funny is the Rockets with a team of 19 and 20 year olds with literally one regular rotation player above 22 (Eric Gordon) has actually had a winning record the past 10 games with Green at age 20 during that stretch averaging like 25 ppg on like 58% ts and taking over games and beating teams like the Sixers, Suns, Bucks etc.


I don't see the Magic having a single 10 game stretch having a .500 or better record and yet Franz is a year older, has a rookie of the year teammate and more players above the age of 22 which means hey probably are more competent. So why hasn't that translated to wins with Franz.


Screaming "wins" for a player on a 8-20 team is pathetic.


Honestly you should be ashamed of yourself for pigeon holing a 20 year old showing immense promise as a career loser. Such a dumb ass take.

Not talking about wins now. Magic aren't exactly worldbeaters at the moment. It's about player archetype. If your best player is a nodefense volume scoring combo guard chucker, your team is not going to be good.

[basketballRob]

That's true and 1 point per 100 possessions in scoring separate them but Green is going to be a 30 ppg player and Franz a low 20's.

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Green is going to be a 30ppg scorer and negatively impact winning a la Beal, LaVine, etc.

Franz might never average 25 and yet he already has demonstrated his capacity to positively impact a team in many ways other than scoring, and on both ends of the floor.

Franz is the kind of guy you want as your tertiary option on a championship team. Green is the kind of guy you want if you like barely making the playoffs and getting swept when you do.

what were Beal and Lavine doing at 20 exactly?


What's funny is the Rockets with a team of 19 and 20 year olds with literally one regular rotation player above 22 (Eric Gordon) has actually had a winning record the past 10 games with Green at age 20 during that stretch averaging like 25 ppg on like 58% ts and taking over games and beating teams like the Sixers, Suns, Bucks etc.


I don't see the Magic having a single 10 game stretch having a .500 or better record and yet Franz is a year older, has a rookie of the year teammate and more players above the age of 22 which means hey probably are more competent. So why hasn't that translated to wins with Franz.


Screaming "wins" for a player on a 8-20 team is pathetic.


Honestly you should be ashamed of yourself for pigeon holing a 20 year old showing immense promise as a career loser. Such a dumb ass take.

The Magic have consistently had 5-6 players on the injured list.

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[Farhan0311]

Green is going to be a 30ppg scorer and negatively impact winning a la Beal, LaVine, etc.

Franz might never average 25 and yet he already has demonstrated his capacity to positively impact a team in many ways other than scoring, and on both ends of the floor.

Franz is the kind of guy you want as your tertiary option on a championship team. Green is the kind of guy you want if you like barely making the playoffs and getting swept when you do.

what were Beal and Lavine doing at 20 exactly?


What's funny is the Rockets with a team of 19 and 20 year olds with literally one regular rotation player above 22 (Eric Gordon) has actually had a winning record the past 10 games with Green at age 20 during that stretch averaging like 25 ppg on like 58% ts and taking over games and beating teams like the Sixers, Suns, Bucks etc.


I don't see the Magic having a single 10 game stretch having a .500 or better record and yet Franz is a year older, has a rookie of the year teammate and more players above the age of 22 which means hey probably are more competent. So why hasn't that translated to wins with Franz.


Screaming "wins" for a player on a 8-20 team is pathetic.


Honestly you should be ashamed of yourself for pigeon holing a 20 year old showing immense promise as a career loser. Such a dumb ass take.

Not talking about wins now. Magic aren't exactly worldbeaters at the moment. It's about player archetype. If your best player is a nodefense volume scoring combo guard chucker, your team is not going to be good.

Ya I don't think you get it. Pigeon holing him into a inefficient volume chucker who plays no defense as a fully developed product is asinine. How do you even know this?

His rapid rate of progression when it comes to ball handling, playamking, ability to have old games and lead teams to wins even when his jumper isn't falling are all signs that this is a type of player who improves rapidly.

Green has some tools that the guys you are claiming to be Green's archetype just simply don't have.

One he is the most athletic of the group. Lavine might have hops but Green has a special first step and great pliability similar to Iverson or Morant. He's also the by far the best ball handler of the group when they were at this stage of development.


His ball handling compared to those guys gives him head room to become more than just a elite scorer.


Honestly there is zero point discussing defense for Green with someone like you. For people like you, rating defense is a pure game of reputation. It's why Kobe got so many unnecessary first team defense accolades towards the later part of his career.

The only people who are going to notice a player significantly improving over time on defense are the people who watch that team regularly and are also the people who people aren't going to trust because they most likely are fans of that said team.

[basketballRob]

The Magic with a couple of more healthy players back should handily take care of the Rockets next week .

Isaac and Okeke practiced yesterday. We need Suggs and Harris back who our are best defensive guards. Wendell is also the anchor for our defense.

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[Farhan0311]

The Magic with a couple of more healthy players back should handily take care of the Rockets next week .

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The Bucks, Sixers, Suns twice said that also.


If the Rockets lose 5 of their rotation players, it actually might make them win more because our rotation is literally just rookies and sophomores with KPJ and Eric Gordon so that means we probably would replace those guys out of the rotation with more experienced players.

So that shouldn't be an excuse. The Magic have their two most important pieces healthy and playing in Paulo and Wagner so they should be winning...


Actually no. I'm actually not serious. I'm just playing your game of labeling 20 year old sophmores career losers. So if we are going by these absurd standards, I'm going to nit pick the hell out of Wanger and being on a losing team. It's not rational but the point of Green being a career losing chucker is also irrational.

[tooler]

The Magic with a couple of more healthy players back should handily take care of the Rockets next week.

Why are you like this??

[JonFromVA]

thats not true, BPM stinks for a variety of reasons but it's just box score stat based, doesn't care about team record, on/off or anything like that


You can't just make stuff up because the stat says something you don't like lol

BPM computes a single team adjustment that's added to every player on the team's raw BPM value.

BPM's model is considered to be about as good as it gets, working with just box score stats that is.

Just so we are clear, BPM says Bol Bol, Cole Anthony and Mo Bamba are having better years than Franz or Banchero.

I will take "BPM is a terrible stat" for 100 Alex. (Jeopardy reference)

Or maybe you shouldn't shoot the messenger rather than listen to what it's trying to tell you?

Most of the stats which go in to BPM are listed in the same table under 'Advanced' in basketball-reference. We can also see by Paolo's -1.3 DBPM and Franz's -1.4 DPBM that they are primarily being penalized by the stats that BPM considers to be defense related.

Meaning just look where those guys rank in DRB%, STL%, and BLK% and you'll get an idea why BPM isn't happy with them.

BPM also includes a positional adjustment which presumes bigs are more valuable than smalls. How well that works with Orlando which plays so many tall lineups may be questionable.

But the whole point of a model like BPM is to make sure everything we can take in to account in the box-score that seems to correlate to winning is taken in to account.

On-Court +/- tells a different story as does On-Off +/-. Franz is ahead of Anthony and Bol Bol, but Bamba is a fair bit ahead of Franz while Banchero is not doing well in +/- at all.

[basketballRob]

BPM computes a single team adjustment that's added to every player on the team's raw BPM value.

BPM's model is considered to be about as good as it gets, working with just box score stats that is.

Just so we are clear, BPM says Bol Bol, Cole Anthony and Mo Bamba are having better years than Franz or Banchero.

I will take "BPM is a terrible stat" for 100 Alex. (Jeopardy reference)

Or maybe you shouldn't shoot the messenger rather than listen to what it's trying to tell you?

Most of the stats which go in to BPM are listed in the same table under 'Advanced' in basketball-reference. We can also see by Paolo's -1.3 DBPM and Franz's -1.4 DPBM that they are primarily being penalized by the stats that BPM considers to be defense related.

Meaning just look where those guys rank in DRB%, STL%, and BLK% and you'll get an idea why BPM isn't happy with them.

BPM also includes a positional adjustment which presumes bigs are more valuable than smalls. How well that works with Orlando which plays so many tall lineups may be questionable.

But the whole point of a model like BPM is to make sure everything we can take in to account in the box-score that seems to correlate to winning is taken in to account.

On-Court +/- tells a different story as does On-Off +/-. Franz is ahead of Anthony and Bol Bol, but Bamba is a fair bit ahead of Franz while Banchero is not doing well in +/- at all.

I like EPM and Raptor

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[K_chile22]

All all-in-one stats are pretty rough, RAPTOR, for example, has Garrison Matthews number 2 in the whole NBA in defensive raptor and Dennis Smith Jr 5th (min 300 minutes)

[JonFromVA]

Just so we are clear, BPM says Bol Bol, Cole Anthony and Mo Bamba are having better years than Franz or Banchero.

I will take "BPM is a terrible stat" for 100 Alex. (Jeopardy reference)

Or maybe you shouldn't shoot the messenger rather than listen to what it's trying to tell you?

Most of the stats which go in to BPM are listed in the same table under 'Advanced' in basketball-reference. We can also see by Paolo's -1.3 DBPM and Franz's -1.4 DPBM that they are primarily being penalized by the stats that BPM considers to be defense related.

Meaning just look where those guys rank in DRB%, STL%, and BLK% and you'll get an idea why BPM isn't happy with them.

BPM also includes a positional adjustment which presumes bigs are more valuable than smalls. How well that works with Orlando which plays so many tall lineups may be questionable.

But the whole point of a model like BPM is to make sure everything we can take in to account in the box-score that seems to correlate to winning is taken in to account.

On-Court +/- tells a different story as does On-Off +/-. Franz is ahead of Anthony and Bol Bol, but Bamba is a fair bit ahead of Franz while Banchero is not doing well in +/- at all.

I like EPM and Raptor

Understandable given how much more they take in to account, but those stats are far more opaque and troublesome due to lack of data at this point in the season and lack of prior data for young players.

My point here is if we're going to quote box score numbers to promote one player over another, we should consider the stat which takes the entire box score in to account and not just the categories that promote whichever player we like. Let BPM or whatever open our mind that there are other promising players from that draft than the guys we've all been locked in to.

If/when some of the top prospects fail to reach their ceiling, who's to say someone like Santi Aldma won't become one of the top players from this draft? The best predictor is always going to be actual production.

[hardenASG13]

Use whatever metrics you want. There are people here arguing Franz his similar ability to Green in creating off the bounce/from the perimeter. If they can't see the absurdity in this when watching both play, nothing will change their mind. Yes Franz is very good, extremely so going to the basket. Green looks like he will be a superstar scorer, Franz will be a second option to Banchero. It appears some would just rather have that efficient, second option to a potential superstar player (saying Green can't be a winner is just completely unfounded speculation because he shoots a lot? And is top tier athlete which many on here refuse to acknowledge as a main trait to developing as a superstar perimeter player).

[jasonxxx102]

Use whatever metrics you want. There are people here arguing Franz his similar ability to Green in creating off the bounce/from the perimeter. If they can't see the absurdity in this when watching both play, nothing will change their mind. Yes Franz is very good, extremely so going to the basket. Green looks like he will be a superstar scorer, Franz will be a second option to Banchero. It appears some would just rather have that efficient, second option to a potential superstar player (saying Green can't be a winner is just completely unfounded speculation because he shoots a lot? And is top tier athlete which many on here refuse to acknowledge as a main trait to developing as a superstar perimeter player).

Name a single one dimension superstar in the last 10 years.

[ChumboChappati]

Looks like Barnes did not deserve the ROTY award.

[tooler]

There are people here arguing Franz his similar ability to Green in creating off the bounce/from the perimeter.

Talking past each other again. I believe the original statement was that Franz can’t create off the bounce, which is silly, and the point we’re trying to clear up. If you think Green has greater upside there then there’s no arguing with it. Totally fine.

I might be misremembering this, and no guarantees that some homer said something ridiculous at one point.

Green looks like he will be a superstar scorer, Franz will be a second option to Banchero. It appears some would just rather have that efficient, second option to a potential superstar player

In fact I just made a poll thread on our forum about this subject! We have both of those options on the same team, so it takes the homerism out of it. Most people picked Banchero for upside but there’s a contingent that prefer Franz’s demonstrated ability (plus his own potential growth). It’s an interesting debate.

[K_chile22]

Looks like Barnes did not deserve the ROTY award.

ROTY is what you did as a rookie, not looking forward. I never had Barnes ahead of the guys who went before him for who I would take in a redraft but was obviously above Green and Cade for ROTY. Personally would have gone Mobley but didn't have an issue either way

[hardenASG13]

Use whatever metrics you want. There are people here arguing Franz his similar ability to Green in creating off the bounce/from the perimeter. If they can't see the absurdity in this when watching both play, nothing will change their mind. Yes Franz is very good, extremely so going to the basket. Green looks like he will be a superstar scorer, Franz will be a second option to Banchero. It appears some would just rather have that efficient, second option to a potential superstar player (saying Green can't be a winner is just completely unfounded speculation because he shoots a lot? And is top tier athlete which many on here refuse to acknowledge as a main trait to developing as a superstar perimeter player).

Name a single one dimension superstar in the last 10 years.

Define one demensional....if Green were to hit 30/7/5 in a few years (definitelya possibility), would he be one dimensional?

[Farhan0311]

Use whatever metrics you want. There are people here arguing Franz his similar ability to Green in creating off the bounce/from the perimeter. If they can't see the absurdity in this when watching both play, nothing will change their mind. Yes Franz is very good, extremely so going to the basket. Green looks like he will be a superstar scorer, Franz will be a second option to Banchero. It appears some would just rather have that efficient, second option to a potential superstar player (saying Green can't be a winner is just completely unfounded speculation because he shoots a lot? And is top tier athlete which many on here refuse to acknowledge as a main trait to developing as a superstar perimeter player).

Name a single one dimension superstar in the last 10 years.

The combo of how he scores at his age and his work ethic which is showing rapid development in things like pnr ball handling and playamking from year one to two means that it's very premature to pigeon hole Green as "just a scorer".

The way he scores this well for his age is from relentlessly beating perimeter defenses and getting into the paint area and collapsing defenses almost every possession he is the ball handler. He's that electric off the dribble. Ask Bucks, Sixers and Suns fans about it. They played against Green recently.


That bodes well in the fire because there are plenty of great playmakers in the past who generated assists not through being passing savants but through shear ability to collapse defenses where they just have to make the easy read to the open man.

People compare Green's archetype to Lavine or Beal but Green at 20 is a far superior ball handler compared to those guys during their similar stage of development.

His pinnacle ceiling might be a more athletic ball handling Booker. That's peak ceiling though. Doesn't mean he'll reach it.

[hardenASG13]

There are people here arguing Franz his similar ability to Green in creating off the bounce/from the perimeter.

Talking past each other again. I believe the original statement was that Franz can’t create off the bounce, which is silly, and the point we’re trying to clear up. If you think Green has greater upside there then there’s no arguing with it. Totally fine.

I might be misremembering this, and no guarantees that some homer said something ridiculous at one point.

Green looks like he will be a superstar scorer, Franz will be a second option to Banchero. It appears some would just rather have that efficient, second option to a potential superstar player

In fact I just made a poll thread on our forum about this subject! We have both of those options on the same team, so it takes the homerism out of it. Most people picked Banchero for upside but there’s a contingent that prefer Franz’s demonstrated ability (plus his own potential growth). It’s an interesting debate.

No the original statement was Franz cant create off the bounce/from the perimeter like Green can, which he cant/doesnt. It was countered by posting shooting percentages, ignoring the whole point and potential thing.

[Los_29]

I think at this point we know what kind of skills translate to winning. It's safe to say that Green is lacking in many of those skills. He's an incredible athlete and a great shooter but unless he dramatically improves his efficiency, passing and defense he's not going to be an impact player. In fact, he will continue to be a net negative.