WOJ: Spurs draft Rob Dillingham 8th, then trade him to the TWolves for an unprotected 2031 first

[Pharmcat]

[quote=see"One_and_Done"]

Spurs have made way too many great moves over the years for that to be remotely true. This move has a strong chance of being a huge win for the Spurs.

They had a dominant run, but I don't think the hit rate is as high as people might think in recent years outside of drafting Victor.

2022 wasn't great.
2021 was a failure.
2020 was fine.
2019 was decent.
2018 was not great.

Well the GM changed in 2020. The rest of the league has also caught up alot too. There aren't many bad, old school GMs left. They're still clearly a very competent front office, and this trade will probably be a good example. I'd quibble slightly with 2022 being 'not great' and 2020 being merely 'fine'. Those look like 2 good picks to me, particularly Vassell. It's also kind of tough to blame them for 2021, that's a pretty hard thing to predict happening.[/quote]


They did get cute with this trade. They should’ve drafted edey as the big guy next to Wemby who can protect him and help him out in the paint. A pick in 2030 does nothing to help wemby grow now.

[hippesthippo]

Wrong thread.

[One_and_Done]

They had a dominant run, but I don't think the hit rate is as high as people might think in recent years outside of drafting Victor.

2022 wasn't great.
2021 was a failure.
2020 was fine.
2019 was decent.
2018 was not great.

Well the GM changed in 2020. The rest of the league has also caught up alot too. There aren't many bad, old school GMs left. They're still clearly a very competent front office, and this trade will probably be a good example. I'd quibble slightly with 2022 being 'not great' and 2020 being merely 'fine'. Those look like 2 good picks to me, particularly Vassell. It's also kind of tough to blame them for 2021, that's a pretty hard thing to predict happening.

They did get cute with this trade. They should’ve drafted edey as the big guy next to Wemby who can protect him and help him out in the paint. A pick in 2030 does nothing to help wemby grow now.

Using the #8 pick on a back-up who will play 10-15mpg at best is a horrible idea.

Spurs made a very justifiable move. They said:
1) We don't love anyone at #8
2) We have a bunch of young talent now and coming up, we can only develop so many young guys at a time,
3) We'll continue to need cheap infusions of young talent 6-7 years from now when we're very good and have limited pathways to adding new talent to sustain the team around Wemby, and
4) We like the odds for the Wolves to suck again by then, like they have for most of their history. Even if the Wolves don't suck, the odds of us liking a player in those 2 future drafts exists, whereas this draft sucks and we are sure we don't love any of the players available. 2 non-zero chances are better than 1 known zero chance.

OKC and Boston are cautionary tales when it comes to holding too many picks over a short period and ultimately wasting some of them because you lack playing time and roster spots to develop them. Sometimes rolling the asset over is the right move. The Spurs could get 3-4 firsts next draft alone, and That's just a fraction of the picks they're owed the next 6-7 years. Rolling the asset over makes sense if you don't love what's available.

Let's review the Spurs rotation shall we?

PF - Sochan/Keldon
SF - H.Barnes/Champs
C - Wemby/Z.Collins
SG - Vassell/Castle/Branham
PG - CP3/Tre/B.Wesley

So looking at this the Spurs have a solid starting 5, and good back-ups at the 1-2 spots being developed. Wemby, Vassell and probably Sochan are future starters moving forward, while they're expecting Castle to become a 4th starter to replace one of CP3 or Barnes. Based on his very limited SL footage I'd say he's a good chance to do that. So they need 1 more starter, and maybe a few bench pieces.

That leaves relatively limited space to develop young guys in the future. OK, if you get a superior player to what you have now, but who at #8 fit that description? The talent at that spot looked like back-up talent. Meanwhile they might have 3-4 draft picks coming next year, at least 3 of which could be lotto picks. Better to roll it over IMO.

[Sealab2024]

While I do think the Spurs will eventually regret the trade I understand the rational... Sort of. There were plenty of guy that could have helped them in this draft from Buzelis and Ware to Knecht and Cody Williams. They could have even traded back a few spots, picked up assets and still got a guy outside the lottery they could develop. But they chose to grab future assets that I can guarantee you they'll never use. They're trade sweeteners for something two years down the road. If that's what they wanted then more power to them, we'll certainly take Rob Dillingham off their hands if they don't want him.

My only real itch here is Spurs fans claiming they didn't want another guy to develop. They're a 20 win team with an up and coming superstar. At no point should you think to yourself "naw, we don't wanna work with any more young talented basketball players" and if somebody did think that then they should be fired.

[Rustyman]

So looking at this the Spurs have a solid starting 5, and good back-ups at the 1-2 spots being developed. Wemby, Vassell and probably Sochan are future starters moving forward, while they're expecting Castle to become a 4th starter to replace one of CP3 or Barnes. Based on his very limited SL footage I'd say he's a good chance to do that. So they need 1 more starter, and maybe a few bench pieces.

That leaves relatively limited space to develop young guys in the future. OK, if you get a superior player to what you have now, but who at #8 fit that description? The talent at that spot looked like back-up talent. Meanwhile they might have 3-4 draft picks coming next year, at least 3 of which could be lotto picks. Better to roll it over IMO.

While I am an avid fan hoping for the Spurs to draft Dillingham at 8, you explained perfectly the Spurs rationale. Now it may or may not work out but unless you thing Dillingham is going to be a perennial All Star, the Spurs made a rational decision for them.

[Klomp]

In general, the rationale for the Spurs makes sense. However, part of any talk about how a trade works out should also consider the situation for the team you are trading with.

I know teams usually focus on their end of a deal more than on what the other team is getting, but I think once you find out it's Minnesota and they are targeting Dillingham, I think you have to think again if you are the Spurs.

When you look at the Timberwolves as constructed before the draft, their two biggest needs were PG of the future and bench playmaker. I know most people want to grade Minnesota's end of the deal by whether they believe Dillingham can fill the first one, while forgetting about how he could fill the second hole. Putting Dillingham with the second unit is a major step forward, especially with the concern that this might be the last season with Naz Reid in Minnesota. If he goes, a 6MOY hole opens up for the taking. To me, it's a very low chance that he will fail to fill either hole over the next 7 years.

I think the entire summer league is a decent synopsis of what we'll see from Dillingham in the regular season as a rookie. I think there will be a lot of inefficient games. Probably at least half of his games will be inefficient shooting percentages.

But when he pops; he pops. Stretches like we saw in his last game will win Minnesota some games in the doldrums of the season. I know people are worried about his floor due to his frame and defensive questions, but I think the team's overall defensive structure will provide a safety net that will not allow him to completely bottom out.

One big difference for Rob in my opinion will be the presence of Mike Conley. Mike has seen it all and done it all. He turned a weakness coming into the league into one of his biggest strengths (his 3-point shot). These next two years, Conley's biggest impact on the team might actually come off the court in his mentorship of Rob Dillingham.

The better Minnesota becomes over the next 5-7 years, the worse the return becomes for the Spurs. There is no guarantee that the 2030 pick swap will happen. And Minnesota staying competitive by adding a Top 10 pick will likely keep that 2031 pick lower.

I know these are probably just trade assets for San Antonio. But the longer you have to wait for a trade asset to transfer, the higher the chance of depreciation. I remember the prized trade chip when Chris Paul was traded to the Clippers was a draft pick that was protected for 6 out of 7 years. When it finally went unprotected in the seventh year, it turned into.....Austin Rivers.

[Shaka_Zulu]

Nicely put together clip of his draft day:


https://youtu.be/3b5I6TJAHV8?si=5_0Z-HrRGaWAhaIX

[Dan Z]

[quote=see"One_and_Done"]

Spurs have made way too many great moves over the years for that to be remotely true. This move has a strong chance of being a huge win for the Spurs.

They had a dominant run, but I don't think the hit rate is as high as people might think in recent years outside of drafting Victor.

2022 wasn't great.
2021 was a failure.
2020 was fine.
2019 was decent.
2018 was not great.

Well the GM changed in 2020. The rest of the league has also caught up alot too. There aren't many bad, old school GMs left. They're still clearly a very competent front office, and this trade will probably be a good example. I'd quibble slightly with 2022 being 'not great' and 2020 being merely 'fine'. Those look like 2 good picks to me, particularly Vassell. It's also kind of tough to blame them for 2021, that's a pretty hard thing to predict happening.

They did get cute with this trade. They should’ve drafted edey as the big guy next to Wemby who can protect him and help him out in the paint. A pick in 2030 does nothing to help wemby grow now.[/quote]

Edey would've been an interesting pick. Either he works well with Wemby, and they're a difficult matchup for opponents, or thet don't work well together and the Spurs figure something else out.

Another player I thought they should've considered is Dalton Knecht. With all the attention Wemby will get outside shooting is important.

[Klomp]

Everyone seems to be focusing on the Spurs side of this trade. However, I think this might be the move that will define Tim Connelly's career here in Minnesota, yes even more than the Gobert trade. That's how strongly I feel about this acquisition.

19-year old Dillingham teaming up with 23-year old all-NBA second teamer Anthony Edwards, 24-year old all-defense second teamer Jaden McDaniels and 25-year old 6MOY winner Naz Reid is a young core that is going to be a lot of fun as they continue to grow together. Reid is the only one of that group not currently locked into a contract through at least 2028 at the moment, so they have the potential to be together for a long time. They are young, talented and have complementary skill sets.

[DaPessimist]

Spurs better be careful. I don't think Wemby is Duncan. Wemby seems like a guy who is eventually going to want the spotlight, and unless the Spurs are contenders by the end of his first contract, he may choose to relocate to a better media market.

[Godymas]

[quote=see"One_and_Done"]

Spurs have made way too many great moves over the years for that to be remotely true. This move has a strong chance of being a huge win for the Spurs.

They had a dominant run, but I don't think the hit rate is as high as people might think in recent years outside of drafting Victor.

2022 wasn't great.
2021 was a failure.
2020 was fine.
2019 was decent.
2018 was not great.

Well the GM changed in 2020. The rest of the league has also caught up alot too. There aren't many bad, old school GMs left. They're still clearly a very competent front office, and this trade will probably be a good example. I'd quibble slightly with 2022 being 'not great' and 2020 being merely 'fine'. Those look like 2 good picks to me, particularly Vassell. It's also kind of tough to blame them for 2021, that's a pretty hard thing to predict happening.


They did get cute with this trade. They should’ve drafted edey as the big guy next to Wemby who can protect him and help him out in the paint. A pick in 2030 does nothing to help wemby grow now.

I think they wanted Clingan and as soon as Clingan got drafted they just said forget it, we don't need our second player in this draft, let's take an asset that might be interesting for when we will be in winning mode with Wemby

[One_and_Done]

[quote=see"One_and_Done"]

They had a dominant run, but I don't think the hit rate is as high as people might think in recent years outside of drafting Victor.

2022 wasn't great.
2021 was a failure.
2020 was fine.
2019 was decent.
2018 was not great.

Well the GM changed in 2020. The rest of the league has also caught up alot too. There aren't many bad, old school GMs left. They're still clearly a very competent front office, and this trade will probably be a good example. I'd quibble slightly with 2022 being 'not great' and 2020 being merely 'fine'. Those look like 2 good picks to me, particularly Vassell. It's also kind of tough to blame them for 2021, that's a pretty hard thing to predict happening.


They did get cute with this trade. They should’ve drafted edey as the big guy next to Wemby who can protect him and help him out in the paint. A pick in 2030 does nothing to help wemby grow now.

I think they wanted Clingan and as soon as Clingan got drafted they just said forget it, we don't need our second player in this draft, let's take an asset that might be interesting for when we will be in winning mode with Wemby

I think there's almost no chance they wanted Clingan. They learned the hard way you have to play Wemby at the 5 last season. Why waste a lotto pick on a back-up. I'd be more likely to believe they wanted Salaun, though not certain they wanted anyone.

[Sealab2024]

[quote=see"One_and_Done"]
Well the GM changed in 2020. The rest of the league has also caught up alot too. There aren't many bad, old school GMs left. They're still clearly a very competent front office, and this trade will probably be a good example. I'd quibble slightly with 2022 being 'not great' and 2020 being merely 'fine'. Those look like 2 good picks to me, particularly Vassell. It's also kind of tough to blame them for 2021, that's a pretty hard thing to predict happening.


They did get cute with this trade. They should’ve drafted edey as the big guy next to Wemby who can protect him and help him out in the paint. A pick in 2030 does nothing to help wemby grow now.

I think they wanted Clingan and as soon as Clingan got drafted they just said forget it, we don't need our second player in this draft, let's take an asset that might be interesting for when we will be in winning mode with Wemby

I think there's almost no chance they wanted Clingan. They learned the hard way you have to play Wemby at the 5 last season. Why waste a lotto pick on a back-up. I'd be more likely to believe they wanted Salaun, though not certain they wanted anyone.

Its widely assumed Salaun is who they wanted and him going at 6 prompted The move at 8. I'm just not sure the gap between Salaun and say a Ware or even Missi is so big that you throw your cards away.

[mhb]

Everyone seems to be focusing on the Spurs side of this trade. However, I think this might be the move that will define Tim Connelly's career here in Minnesota, yes even more than the Gobert trade. That's how strongly I feel about this acquisition.

19-year old Dillingham teaming up with 23-year old all-NBA second teamer Anthony Edwards, 24-year old all-defense second teamer Jaden McDaniels and 25-year old 6MOY winner Naz Reid is a young core that is going to be a lot of fun as they continue to grow together. Reid is the only one of that group not currently locked into a contract through at least 2028 at the moment, so they have the potential to be together for a long time. They are young, talented and have complementary skill sets.

you should work for the timberwolves marketing team

[Klomp]

Everyone seems to be focusing on the Spurs side of this trade. However, I think this might be the move that will define Tim Connelly's career here in Minnesota, yes even more than the Gobert trade. That's how strongly I feel about this acquisition.

19-year old Dillingham teaming up with 23-year old all-NBA second teamer Anthony Edwards, 24-year old all-defense second teamer Jaden McDaniels and 25-year old 6MOY winner Naz Reid is a young core that is going to be a lot of fun as they continue to grow together. Reid is the only one of that group not currently locked into a contract through at least 2028 at the moment, so they have the potential to be together for a long time. They are young, talented and have complementary skill sets.

you should work for the timberwolves marketing team

What exactly are you disagreeing with?

Do you disagree that Anthony Edwards was all-NBA second team? That is fact.
Do you disagree that Jaden McDaniels was all-defense second team? That is fact.
Do you disagree that Naz Reid was Sixth Man of the Year? That is fact.
Do you disagree that all but one are locked in through 2028? That is fact.

[DwayneSchintzus]

1) The Spurs are obviously planning to be better than the Timberwolves in 2031. Based on the Wolves ownership fiasco and their luxury tax situation i think that is reasonable

2) The Spurs value playmakers with size and not small point guards who are FOOD in the later rounds of the playoffs- see Josh Primo, point Sochan and now Castle

3) The Spurs only have a finite amount of developmental slots on the team- David Thorpe’s “royal jelly” concept- and have a bunch of young players already

This trade has a chance to play out like the 1997 otis thorpe trade that netted the Pistons the 2nd pick in the 2003 draft. If the Spurs win the title and add a top-3 pick in 2031 that will be absolute GOLD.

[Klomp]

1) The Spurs are obviously planning to be better than the Timberwolves in 2031. Based on the Wolves ownership fiasco and their luxury tax situation i think that is reasonable

2) The Spurs value playmakers with size and not small point guards who are FOOD in the later rounds of the playoffs- see Josh Primo, point Sochan and now Castle

3) The Spurs only have a finite amount of developmental slots on the team- David Thorpe’s “royal jelly” concept- and have a bunch of young players already

This trade has a chance to play out like the 1997 otis thorpe trade that netted the Pistons the 2nd pick in the 2003 draft. If the Spurs win the title and add a top-3 pick in 2031 that will be absolute GOLD.

It doesn't really matter whether or not San Antonio is better than Minnesota in 2031...the pick swap is in 2030.

I will concede the fact that Dillingham would not really be a Spurs pick....well, let me clarify that, he would not be a Popovich pick. I also agree that it would've been tough for them to have two rookies.

However, I see a very small chance that this turns into a Thorpe situation. And a big difference between the two situations is that Detroit traded away a 35-year old Otis Thorpe. Ain't no way he was going to be an impactful player for an expansion Vancouver team for long. Dillingham is a 19-year old going immediately into a Western Conference Finals team that is led by a 23-year old superstar. That is risky for San Antonio. You really have to be a skeptic about his game to make that trade. Even if you don't feel he's a fit for you, once you hear that's who Minnesota is targeting, I think you should have some pause.

It's also worth mentioning...Minnesota is the Spurs' direct competition. They didn't trade him to the East...though another factor is that by 7 years from now, Minnesota could easily be padding its win total if expansion and realignment push them into the East to face Detroit, Atlanta, Washington, Charlotte 3 or 4 times a season instead of twice.

[DwayneSchintzus]

1) The Spurs are obviously planning to be better than the Timberwolves in 2031. Based on the Wolves ownership fiasco and their luxury tax situation i think that is reasonable

2) The Spurs value playmakers with size and not small point guards who are FOOD in the later rounds of the playoffs- see Josh Primo, point Sochan and now Castle

3) The Spurs only have a finite amount of developmental slots on the team- David Thorpe’s “royal jelly” concept- and have a bunch of young players already

This trade has a chance to play out like the 1997 otis thorpe trade that netted the Pistons the 2nd pick in the 2003 draft. If the Spurs win the title and add a top-3 pick in 2031 that will be absolute GOLD.

It doesn't really matter whether or not San Antonio is better than Minnesota in 2031...the pick swap is in 2030.

I will concede the fact that Dillingham would not really be a Spurs pick....well, let me clarify that, he would not be a Popovich pick. I also agree that it would've been tough for them to have two rookies.

However, I see a very small chance that this turns into a Thorpe situation. And a big difference between the two situations is that Detroit traded away a 35-year old Otis Thorpe. Ain't no way he was going to be an impactful player for an expansion Vancouver team for long. Dillingham is a 19-year old going immediately into a Western Conference Finals team that is led by a 23-year old superstar. That is risky for San Antonio. You really have to be a skeptic about his game to make that trade. Even if you don't feel he's a fit for you, once you hear that's who Minnesota is targeting, I think you should have some pause.

It's also worth mentioning...Minnesota is the Spurs' direct competition. They didn't trade him to the East...though another factor is that by 7 years from now, Minnesota could easily be padding its win total if expansion and realignment push them into the East to face Detroit, Atlanta, Washington, Charlotte 3 or 4 times a season instead of twice.

edit: its a 2030 top one protected swap and a 2031 unprotected first. so i'm even happier than i was yesterday.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/40440644/timberwolves-trade-acquire-rob-dillingham-spurs

[Rustyman]

People take this stuff far to seriously. The Spurs did not like their options at the 8th pick in the 2024 draft so decided to punt it down the road.

The Timberwolves saw a player they thought would fit their team and decided to trade for the 8th pick to get him.

The results of the trade will be determined in 10 years time when the 2030 swap and 2031 picks will have had 3+ years under their belt. Everything else is simply speculation with no way either side can confirm their side has had the best of the situation.

[KGdaBom]

1) The Spurs are obviously planning to be better than the Timberwolves in 2031. Based on the Wolves ownership fiasco and their luxury tax situation i think that is reasonable

2) The Spurs value playmakers with size and not small point guards who are FOOD in the later rounds of the playoffs- see Josh Primo, point Sochan and now Castle

3) The Spurs only have a finite amount of developmental slots on the team- David Thorpe’s “royal jelly” concept- and have a bunch of young players already

This trade has a chance to play out like the 1997 otis thorpe trade that netted the Pistons the 2nd pick in the 2003 draft. If the Spurs win the title and add a top-3 pick in 2031 that will be absolute GOLD.

Wolves with a top 3 pick with Ant, McDaniels, Naz, Dillingham. Shannon. Yeah right. Don't bother coming back at me with Ant will be gone. Not going to happen and even if it did the compensation would be HUGE.