How are people not putting Jokic in their top 15 yet?

[prime1time]

Steph has been in 6 conference finals.
Kobe was in 8 conference finals
Duncan was in 9 conference finals
Garnett in 6 conference finals
Hakeem in 4 conference finals
Malone in 6 conference finals
Durant in 6 conference finals

Even last year was embarrassing for Jokic. "Bbbut he lost to OKC and they won the finals." If he's a top 15 player of all time why was he playing the #1 seed in the second round? What's the explanation for the Rockets and the Lakers finishing with a better record the Nuggets?

Guys like Doncic and Jokic that dominate the ball, are responsible for all the offensive creation and hide on defense put up great stats but it has been proven to be an sub-optimal way to win games. It's hard to see how Jokic ends up top 15. SGA, Wemby, Edwards and Luka are all in his way. He wants to be top 15 beat them in a 7 game series. Win. That's how basketball works. If he doesn't make another WCF what argument can their be for him to be a top 15 guy? It makes the championship he did win look like a fluke. That's the thing about top 15 players, there's nothing flukey about them. They beat their peers and they do it routinely.

Being honest, how many Conference finals do we think Jokic makes if he plays at the same time of Shaq/Kobe, Duncan Spurs, Nowitzki Mavs, Garnett T-Wolves? Steve Nash made 4 conference finals in the 2000s. How many would he win if he played against the same competition that Jokic went against?

[prime1time]

Steph has been in 6 conference finals.
Kobe was in 8 conference finals
Duncan was in 9 conference finals
Garnett in 6 conference finals
Hakeem in 4 conference finals
Malone in 6 conference finals
Durant in 6 conference finals

Even last year was embarrassing for Jokic. "Bbbut he lost to OKC and they won the finals." If he's a top 15 player of all time why was he playing the #1 seed in the second round? What's the explanation for the Rockets and the Lakers finishing with a better record the Nuggets?

Guys like Doncic and Jokic that dominate the ball, are responsible for all the offensive creation and hide on defense put up great stats but it has been proven to be an sub-optimal way to win games. It's hard to see how Jokic ends up top 15. SGA, Wemby, Edwards and Luka are all in his way. He wants to be top 15 beat them in a 7 game series. Win. That's how basketball works. If he doesn't make another WCF what argument can their be for him to be a top 15 guy? It makes the championship he did win look like a fluke. That's the thing about top 15 players, there's nothing flukey about them. They beat their peers and they do it routinely.

Being honest, how many Conference finals do we think Jokic makes if he plays at the same time of Shaq/Kobe, Duncan Spurs, Nowitzki Mavs, Garnett T-Wolves? Steve Nash made 4 conference finals in the 2000s. How many would he win if he played against the same competition that Jokic went against?

What's the obsession with conference finals? Well it's a good barometer for the post season success of top 15 players. If you're a borderline top 15 guy there's a good chance that your path to a finals was blocked by a guy higher up on the list. So it's not fair guys like Malone who played through multiple top 5/10 guys careers to knock him meanwhile you have a guy like Jokic get an easy ring because he has no real competition. Making it to numerous conference finals means that you have achieved a consistent level of post season success. If you don't have an extended track record of winning in the playoffs and beating other stars in your era you can't be a top 15 player.

[Top10alltime]

Jokic struggles in the post season. One championship in a weak year and only 2 conference finals. The lack of sustained Post Season success even without the west having truly dominant teams is disappointing.

You know, if having a career avg of 27,12 and 7 on over 90 games is struggling vs playoff teams, maybe you sit down in the corner and stare at the wall because that would actually be more constructive than you posting what you just posted.

This is the problem with the modern NBA. Ball dominant players can put up good stats so easily. Look at Austin Reaves. Jokic dominates the ball, controls the offense and puts up good stats. When you say he doesn't win people point to the stats and his teammates. It's a win/win. List every top 15 player. How many of them had more post season wins that Jokic?

MJ - Yes
LBJ - Yes
Kareem - Yes
Hakeem - Yes
Duncan - Yes
Kobe - Yes
Magic - Yes
Shaq - Yes
Bird - Yes
Russell - Yes
Wilt - Yes
Dirk - Yes
KD - Yes
Steph - Yes
Oscar - Yes
Robinson - Yes
Garnett - Yes

Garnett played in 6 conference finals. Jokic played in 2. Garnett faced off against LBJ, Shaq/Kobe lakers, Duncan Spurs. What are the year by year explanations as to why Jokic can't make the conference finals in the West? I don't care about stats. I care about winning games in the post season. That's goal of the game. If the question is, "Is Jokic a top 15 stat getter" then yes he is. But at what point did the conversation about top 15 of all time become about stats instead of winning?

And this is the precise problem with Jokic. Jokic's defense is mediocre at best. He takes no pride in stopping his opponents. All his energy is invested in generating gaudy stat lines even if they lose. You can't just focus on the stat lines with Jokic because you're comparing him to other players and specifically big men who served as the defensive anchor for their team. So, on one hand, you bigs that are going all out on the defensive end blocking shots, rotating giving everything have defensively, and on the other hand, you have a guy like Jokic who basically takes defense off in the playoffs.

This is like a con game lol. Get us to focus on the stats so that we ignore his defense. But Jokic's lack of post-season success reveals the truth. A championship in an era where numerous stars got injured and they beat the Miami Heat for the finals. I'm not even talking about winning championships. Why can't he make more Western Conference finals? Which great player/great team is blocking him? Is it unrealistic for me to expect a top 15 player of all time to beat young Anthony Edwards and make it to the WCF In 2023-2024?

There is so much so wrong with this post. Let me explain to you:

1. Jokic is so good off-ball (like top 5 ever), he's better than he is on the ball. He has more off-ball touches, an amazing off-ball playmaker with his screen setting, rolling, passing ot setting plays, extending creations. Actually fights for position to open up the lane for his teammates, and an elite off-ball scorer. Jokic dominates both on and off-ball.

2. Let's look at everyone of these guys playoff win percentage, since Jokic played less than them.
Jokic - 54.3%
MJ - 66.5% (he won more)
LBJ - 63.0% (he won more)
KAJ - 65.0% (he won more)
Hakeem - 52.4% (Jokic won more)
Duncan - 62.5% (he won more)
Kobe - 61.4% (he won more)
Magic - 67.4% (he won more)
Shaq - 59.7% (he won more)
Bird - 60.4% (he won more)
Russell - 64.8% (he won more)
Wilt - 55.0% (he won more, barely)
Dirk - 47.6% (Jokic won more)
KD - 59.4% (he won more, with GSW)
Steph - 67.1% (he won more)
Oscar - 53.5% (Jokic won more)
DRob - 56.9% (he won more, not as a 1st option)
Garnett - 49.0% (Jokic won more)

So, you are ignoring context, and this isn't even factoring their supporting cast, just raw win%, supporting your case. You still are clearly wrong, as Jokic has a higher win% than 4 of these guys. Jokic is a winner, and an ATG playoffs performer. It's just the facts.

3. Jokic' defense isn't mediocre. It is actually great, with good hands, great drop defense, good rim protection, elite positioning and good PnR defense, it just makes him way better than mediocre at best defensively. He is a great defender in the playoffs.

2023 Jokic: -9.9 rim FG diff%
2024 Jokic: -4.4 rim FG diff%
2025 Jokic: -5.3 rim FG diff%

You don't know what you're talking about. He beat the Miami Heat who embarrassed Giannis, and if he's good, then so is Jokic. It's unrealistic for Jokic to win, because he has such garbage squads around him. It's that simple, and please think twice before submitting posts. Thank you, and outside here please stay safe and live good life. Christ bless you

[BelgradeNugget]

Paradox of Jokic's defense and how to quantify it.

1. We all have eyes, we can see he is not giving much effort on defense. His rim defense has been bad. We have numbers to prove it. Players are scoring with ease on Nuggets at the rim, in the paint...but

2. Here is DEFRTG of Nuggats rotation players

2 Aaron Gordon 105.9
3 Nikola Jokić 109.5
4 Christian Braun 110.2
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. 113.4
6 Jamal Murray 114.7
7 Bruce Brown 115.3
8 Cameron Johnson 115.5
13 Peyton Watson 125.2
14 Jonas Valančiūnas 126.7

Nuggets as a team have DEFRTG of 115.7 which means they are defending much better (-6.2 pts per 100) with him on the court. That was the case almost every year of his career. They are 19th best defense now, but if the rest of team defended on his level (109.5) they would heve been 7th best defense in the league.

So maybe, knowing other teams plays, positioning, reading defense (BBIQ) is also important, but less visible parts of defense. Who knows...

No argument here that it’s also important. Simply arguing that those things in no way make up for his deficiencies.

And we’re only like three games into the season. What’s more, making the argument that a team is better defensively w X player, while that team is still among the worst defenses in the league isn’t much of an argument for relative impact across the league.

If the team defended on the level of Jokic (109.5 DEFRTG) they would have been top 7 in the league. But you are right. Small sample size.

OK how about this:

in 2023/24 Nuggets as a team were 8th best defense in the league with 112.3 DEFRTG. Here is DEFRTG for each rotation player that year

7 Christian Braun 109.3
8 Peyton Watson 109.7
9 Nikola Jokić 110.6
10 Reggie Jackson 110.6
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 111.0
12 Aaron Gordon 111.1
13 Michael Porter Jr. 112.1
14 Jamal Murray 112.4

With him on the court they defended better again, and if the team as a whole had a defensive rating as Jokic they would have been 2nd best defense in the NBA.

[dhsilv2]

I mean, I could - but what's the point? You seem married to your ideas.

My arguments have shown, empirically and objectively that Jokic is infact a poor "shot" and "help" defender (I'm sure you'd attempt to argue the latter but your own your own/ you've already agreed to the former. And to me, being a bad "shot defender" and help defender makes someone a bad defender.

Your argument is, no, defense is more than "shot" defense and their are aspects of his help defense/rebounding/reduced foul rates (already debunk this) that offsets his many defensive short comings that make him a plus defender (again despite the Nuggets being a better team defensively with him off the court last season).

So the burden is on you and you've done nothing to "quantify" this "offset" with data outside of outsourcing that quantification to jeremias engelmann, who says his metric overrates Jokic (you can look up his name SPOXX and Jokic, ironically the interview was posted on Realgm and you commented on the post), and ballparking that his rebounding and steals saves his team 2.6 points.

Ok, Jokic gives up 9.6 ppg at the rim alone. Where is the additional seven points coming from that offsets his poor rim protection alone?

Yes, we have been going back and fourth on where defense most matter which is team defense and you have not shown any evidence here.

And SPOXX and Jokic yields absolutely nothing for me.

Rim protection is team defense. Pnr defense is team defense. Your team being better with you off than on is team defense. In fact everything I put forth impacts team defense. So yes, I have. So again, where is evidence past your ballparked 2.6 ppg saved which doesn’t even offset Jokic’s poor defense. Simple question.

And you need to add Jeremy’s name. As Realgm to your search inquiry, that may be fruitful.

You've not moved to "lets use one year" vs using multie year.

We've already covered the public data shows Jokic in the top 80% of pick and roll defenders in terms of points allowed.

Rim protection sure, as said from the start this is a weakness. it's however offset by reduced free throws and contested rebounds won by Jokic.

The "evidence" was already explained.

And I've got nothing on this search, that produces nothing for me.

[DimesandKnicks]

Paradox of Jokic's defense and how to quantify it.

1. We all have eyes, we can see he is not giving much effort on defense. His rim defense has been bad. We have numbers to prove it. Players are scoring with ease on Nuggets at the rim, in the paint...but

2. Here is DEFRTG of Nuggats rotation players

2 Aaron Gordon 105.9
3 Nikola Jokić 109.5
4 Christian Braun 110.2
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. 113.4
6 Jamal Murray 114.7
7 Bruce Brown 115.3
8 Cameron Johnson 115.5
13 Peyton Watson 125.2
14 Jonas Valančiūnas 126.7

Nuggets as a team have DEFRTG of 115.7 which means they are defending much better (-6.2 pts per 100) with him on the court. That was the case almost every year of his career. They are 19th best defense now, but if the rest of team defended on his level (109.5) they would heve been 7th best defense in the league.

So maybe, knowing other teams plays, positioning, reading defense (BBIQ) is also important, but less visible parts of defense. Who knows...

No argument here that it’s also important. Simply arguing that those things in no way make up for his deficiencies.

And we’re only like three games into the season. What’s more, making the argument that a team is better defensively w X player, while that team is still among the worst defenses in the league isn’t much of an argument for relative impact across the league.

If the team defended on the level of Jokic (109.5 DEFRTG) they would have been top 7 in the league. But you are right. Small sample size.

OK how about this:

in 2023/24 Nuggets as a team were 8th best defense in the league with 112.3 DEFRTG. Here is DEFRTG for each rotation player that year

7 Christian Braun 109.3
8 Peyton Watson 109.7
9 Nikola Jokić 110.6
10 Reggie Jackson 110.6
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 111.0
12 Aaron Gordon 111.1
13 Michael Porter Jr. 112.1
14 Jamal Murray 112.4

With him on the court they defended better again, and if the team as a whole had a defensive rating as Jokic they would have been 2nd best defense in the NBA.

You’re using team-based DefRtg to measure Jokic’s individual defense, but that’s misleading. A 109 rating mostly reflects the lineups he played with, not his personal impact. Individual tracking stats like rim FG%, PnR defense, and shots contested still show he’s below average.

[Roger Murdock]

The best players in the league are only playing like 40 minutes a night in close games

A team players 240 minutes a night. That means, the absolute best players are only playing ~17% of their teams minutes

It’s very easy to lose if your team is gapped significantly on the 240 minutes the 2-5 guys are playing, even if the best player has a large advantage cs the other teams best player

Has Jokic ever been the second best player in a playoff series?

[nate33]

The best players in the league are only playing like 40 minutes a night in close games

A team players 240 minutes a night. That means, the absolute best players are only playing ~17% of their teams minutes

It’s very easy to lose if your team is gapped significantly on the 240 minutes the 2-5 guys are playing, even if the best player has a large advantage cs the other teams best player

Has Jokic ever been the second best player in a playoff series?

You can make a case for Anthony Davis outplaying Jokic in 2020, or SGA in 2025. But that's it.

[og15]

Jokic struggles in the post season. One championship in a weak year and only 2 conference finals. The lack of sustained Post Season success even without the west having truly dominant teams is disappointing.

You know, if having a career avg of 27,12 and 7 on over 90 games is struggling vs playoff teams, maybe you sit down in the corner and stare at the wall because that would actually be more constructive than you posting what you just posted.

This is the problem with the modern NBA. Ball dominant players can put up good stats so easily. Look at Austin Reaves. Jokic dominates the ball, controls the offense and puts up good stats. When you say he doesn't win people point to the stats and his teammates. It's a win/win. List every top 15 player. How many of them had more post season wins that Jokic?

MJ - Yes
LBJ - Yes
Kareem - Yes
Hakeem - Yes
Duncan - Yes
Kobe - Yes
Magic - Yes
Shaq - Yes
Bird - Yes
Russell - Yes
Wilt - Yes
Dirk - Yes
KD - Yes
Steph - Yes
Oscar - Yes
Robinson - Yes
Garnett - Yes

Garnett played in 6 conference finals. Jokic played in 2. Garnett faced off against LBJ, Shaq/Kobe lakers, Duncan Spurs. What are the year by year explanations as to why Jokic can't make the conference finals in the West? I don't care about stats. I care about winning games in the post season. That's goal of the game. If the question is, "Is Jokic a top 15 stat getter" then yes he is. But at what point did the conversation about top 15 of all time become about stats instead of winning?

And this is the precise problem with Jokic. Jokic's defense is mediocre at best. He takes no pride in stopping his opponents. All his energy is invested in generating gaudy stat lines even if they lose. You can't just focus on the stat lines with Jokic because you're comparing him to other players and specifically big men who served as the defensive anchor for their team. So, on one hand, you bigs that are going all out on the defensive end blocking shots, rotating giving everything have defensively, and on the other hand, you have a guy like Jokic who basically takes defense off in the playoffs.

This is like a con game lol. Get us to focus on the stats so that we ignore his defense. But Jokic's lack of post-season success reveals the truth. A championship in an era where numerous stars got injured and they beat the Miami Heat for the finals. I'm not even talking about winning championships. Why can't he make more Western Conference finals? Which great player/great team is blocking him? Is it unrealistic for me to expect a top 15 player of all time to beat young Anthony Edwards and make it to the WCF In 2023-2024?

You're hurting your own argument with your examples, because your examples are basically showing that team strength and supporting talent are large factors.

Garnett CF before Boston big 3:
1

Garnett CF after Boston big 3:
3

I'm actually not sure where you got 6 from.

Jokic CF:
2

KG didn't get his second CF until 31 with Boston big 3, Jokic is 30 this season....

I think David Robinson is great, David Robinson also made one CF before Duncan, he made 3 with Duncan, one as a 37 year old role player.

I guess my question is whether there's no concept of context here, or what exactly are we doing?

[Blame Rasho]

Steph has been in 6 conference finals.
Kobe was in 8 conference finals
Duncan was in 9 conference finals
Garnett in 6 conference finals
Hakeem in 4 conference finals
Malone in 6 conference finals
Durant in 6 conference finals

Even last year was embarrassing for Jokic. "Bbbut he lost to OKC and they won the finals." If he's a top 15 player of all time why was he playing the #1 seed in the second round? What's the explanation for the Rockets and the Lakers finishing with a better record the Nuggets?

Guys like Doncic and Jokic that dominate the ball, are responsible for all the offensive creation and hide on defense put up great stats but it has been proven to be an sub-optimal way to win games. It's hard to see how Jokic ends up top 15. SGA, Wemby, Edwards and Luka are all in his way. He wants to be top 15 beat them in a 7 game series. Win. That's how basketball works. If he doesn't make another WCF what argument can their be for him to be a top 15 guy? It makes the championship he did win look like a fluke. That's the thing about top 15 players, there's nothing flukey about them. They beat their peers and they do it routinely.

Being honest, how many Conference finals do we think Jokic makes if he plays at the same time of Shaq/Kobe, Duncan Spurs, Nowitzki Mavs, Garnett T-Wolves? Steve Nash made 4 conference finals in the 2000s. How many would he win if he played against the same competition that Jokic went against?

What's the obsession with conference finals? Well it's a good barometer for the post season success of top 15 players. If you're a borderline top 15 guy there's a good chance that your path to a finals was blocked by a guy higher up on the list. So it's not fair guys like Malone who played through multiple top 5/10 guys careers to knock him meanwhile you have a guy like Jokic get an easy ring because he has no real competition. Making it to numerous conference finals means that you have achieved a consistent level of post season success. If you don't have an extended track record of winning in the playoffs and beating other stars in your era you can't be a top 15 player.

I would ask, what is the obsession with being wrong… but hey keep quoting yourself. Makes you look great.

[1993Playoffs]

I do wonder if that 2023 chip was a fluke. The actual teams they played weren’t great that year.

[DimesandKnicks]

Yes, we have been going back and fourth on where defense most matter which is team defense and you have not shown any evidence here.

And SPOXX and Jokic yields absolutely nothing for me.

Rim protection is team defense. Pnr defense is team defense. Your team being better with you off than on is team defense. In fact everything I put forth impacts team defense. So yes, I have. So again, where is evidence past your ballparked 2.6 ppg saved which doesn’t even offset Jokic’s poor defense. Simple question.

And you need to add Jeremy’s name. As Realgm to your search inquiry, that may be fruitful.

You've not moved to "lets use one year" vs using multie year.

We've already covered the public data shows Jokic in the top 80% of pick and roll defenders in terms of points allowed.

Rim protection sure, as said from the start this is a weakness. it's however offset by reduced free throws and contested rebounds won by Jokic.

The "evidence" was already explained.

And I've got nothing on this search, that produces nothing for me.

Do you get that you’ve never quantified how his reduced FT rates and contested rebounds won don’t even “offset” his poor rim defense? I just gave you the numbers. It’s as if you think simply saying “offset” is a quantitative formula that gives you a numerical output.

Can you actually quantify in points (as you’ve asked me to do) how his contested rebounds and reduced ft rates (ignoring for your sake that this isn’t true in the playoffs) outside of your 2.6 number because that number isn’t greater than what he gives up in points at the rim.

It’s a really simple question that you keep evading by saying u did it already but you have not. You’ve provided a ballpark number, but that number doesn’t magically offset his rim defense just because you were able to produce it

[og15]

I do wonder if that 2023 chip was a fluke. The actual teams they played weren’t great that year.

Teams play who are in front of them. Lots of East teams made the finals with no strong opponents. People who take context into play account for that vs just the rounds passed analysis when comparing players.

Denver of course remains a very tough out.

The Nuggets team got worse than the championship year, cap situations currently do make it harder for teams than even before to keep your championship roster. Opponents also improved, that happens too.

The Lakers also won in 2020 then nothing. Bucks won in 2021 then nothing, does that mean they were all flukes?

Denver went to 7 vs Minny in the 2nd round with a worse roster. They then went to 7 last season with a better than 2024 roster (due to player development), though still not that same strength as the one that won. It happens, just like the Spurs had a finals drought from 07-08 to 10-11

[dhsilv2]

Rim protection is team defense. Pnr defense is team defense. Your team being better with you off than on is team defense. In fact everything I put forth impacts team defense. So yes, I have. So again, where is evidence past your ballparked 2.6 ppg saved which doesn’t even offset Jokic’s poor defense. Simple question.

And you need to add Jeremy’s name. As Realgm to your search inquiry, that may be fruitful.

You've not moved to "lets use one year" vs using multie year.

We've already covered the public data shows Jokic in the top 80% of pick and roll defenders in terms of points allowed.

Rim protection sure, as said from the start this is a weakness. it's however offset by reduced free throws and contested rebounds won by Jokic.

The "evidence" was already explained.

And I've got nothing on this search, that produces nothing for me.

Do you get that you’ve never quantified how his reduced FT rates and contested rebounds won don’t even “offset” his poor rim defense? I just gave you the numbers. It’s as if you think simply saying “offset” is a quantitative formula that gives you a numerical output.

Can you actually quantify in points (as you’ve asked me to do) how his contested rebounds and reduced ft rates (ignoring for your sake that this isn’t true in the playoffs) outside of your 2.6 number because that number isn’t greater than what he gives up in points at the rim.

It’s a really simple question that you keep evading by saying u did it already but you have not. You’ve provided a ballpark number, but that number doesn’t magically offset his rim defense just because you were able to produce it

We've gone over approximate numbers on the rim side already, might have done this more than a month ago.

The problem you're having is you're acting like if a team scores 9 points at the rim against him, he gave up 9 points in the sense that the other team scored 9 more than an expected value. That isn't the case. As you seemingly pull different numbers up from random news articles it's hard to discuss stats and you want to keep veering into one year data vs multie. But we can reasonably quantify that the average shooting at the rim vs the shooting at the rim against jokic. The delta is the additional points allowed.

But lets try and adjust this for a second. What is a bad defender in a way we can discuss with numbers? If your team is going to be 1 point per 100 worse due to your defense is that good, bad, average? If you're 3 points worse what is that? Now obviously, to perhaps the point on RAPM, Jokic makes his team's defense better because he makes his team's offense better. So we're I assume trying to control that aspect as well as we don't want to give his offense a defensive value. This is a real reason why the O and the D RAPM likely as I've been saying overrates Jokic on the defensive end. Or perhaps better point there's a 3rd bucket in a perfect world we'd address. But honestly, we're carrying this over from another thread where as far as I'm concerned the topic was resolved. I'm not sure why we're back to it.

The data, stats, and film are what they are.

[Maf]

As a Nuggets fan I admire your passion to argue if Jokič is Top 15, Top 20, Top 30, Top garbage... I saw plenty of basketball getting close to 40. And I saw only very few players I enjoyd watching as much as Nikola. But there are two important things to say. First, winning is important. Second, team matters. If you blame Nicola for failing against better teams, it is (Please Use More Appropriate Word). This season Nuggets improved their terrible weakness, sick awfull bench. So this year should tell you more about Jokič. Now even with injury or two, there should be no excuses.

[DC_Melo]

I only respect elite 2-way players, so Jokic will never make it onto my list.
Jokic will never reach Giannis level.
For the last 6 years, Giannis has averaged 29.9 points, 11.9 rebounds, 6.0 assists, .575 field, and been one of the very best defenders in the NBA.

And even while lazing around defensively, Jokic never even scored 30ppg.
GIannis 2024-25 = 30.4 points, 11.9 rebounds, 6.5 assists, .601 fielding
Giannis 2023-24 = 30.4 points, 11.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists, .611 fielding

And Jokic's lack of athleticism is no excuse.
Larry Bird was not athletic, and he was still an elite 2-way player.

This right here.
Does Jokic even surpass Larry Legend??? IMO no.

Well... obviously he doesn't. But how is that relevant?

Bird is a consensus top 10 player, usually hovering in the 6-8 range. What is the point of this comparison? OP is talking about Jokic being in the top 15. He doesn't need to be better than Bird to accomplish that.

I dunno if Jokic is in my top 15, but the Larry Legend comparison makes no sense.

[BelgradeNugget]

No argument here that it’s also important. Simply arguing that those things in no way make up for his deficiencies.

And we’re only like three games into the season. What’s more, making the argument that a team is better defensively w X player, while that team is still among the worst defenses in the league isn’t much of an argument for relative impact across the league.

If the team defended on the level of Jokic (109.5 DEFRTG) they would have been top 7 in the league. But you are right. Small sample size.

OK how about this:

in 2023/24 Nuggets as a team were 8th best defense in the league with 112.3 DEFRTG. Here is DEFRTG for each rotation player that year

7 Christian Braun 109.3
8 Peyton Watson 109.7
9 Nikola Jokić 110.6
10 Reggie Jackson 110.6
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 111.0
12 Aaron Gordon 111.1
13 Michael Porter Jr. 112.1
14 Jamal Murray 112.4

With him on the court they defended better again, and if the team as a whole had a defensive rating as Jokic they would have been 2nd best defense in the NBA.

You’re using team-based DefRtg to measure Jokic’s individual defense, but that’s misleading. A 109 rating mostly reflects the lineups he played with, not his personal impact. Individual tracking stats like rim FG%, PnR defense, and shots contested still show he’s below average.

Individual tracking stats like steals, deflections, box-outs, def rebound%...show he is great in this segments of defense. As he is bad in segments of defense you pointed out.

So we tried to measure parts of defense that can't be mesured through individual tracking stats, like positioning, reading defense (BBIQ)...
Your argument that Nuggets are defending better with him is reflecting lineups, not his contribution in those lineups, can't stand because in 2023-24 season Nuggets used 62 different lineups that played more than 10 minutes together. Jokic was part of 35 of those. He spent 72% of minutes on the flour when he played. But somehow he wasn't contributing to those lineups defending better when he was in the game, but those lineups made his defensive rating top 3 among Nuggets, 8th best defensive team that season.

OK

[DimesandKnicks]

If the team defended on the level of Jokic (109.5 DEFRTG) they would have been top 7 in the league. But you are right. Small sample size.

OK how about this:

in 2023/24 Nuggets as a team were 8th best defense in the league with 112.3 DEFRTG. Here is DEFRTG for each rotation player that year

7 Christian Braun 109.3
8 Peyton Watson 109.7
9 Nikola Jokić 110.6
10 Reggie Jackson 110.6
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 111.0
12 Aaron Gordon 111.1
13 Michael Porter Jr. 112.1
14 Jamal Murray 112.4

With him on the court they defended better again, and if the team as a whole had a defensive rating as Jokic they would have been 2nd best defense in the NBA.

You’re using team-based DefRtg to measure Jokic’s individual defense, but that’s misleading. A 109 rating mostly reflects the lineups he played with, not his personal impact. Individual tracking stats like rim FG%, PnR defense, and shots contested still show he’s below average.

Individual tracking stats like steals, deflections, box-outs, def rebound%...show he is great in this segments of defense. As he is bad in segments of defense you pointed out.

So we tried to measure parts of defense that can't be mesured through individual tracking stats, like positioning, reading defense (BBIQ)...
Your argument that Nuggets are defending better with him is reflecting lineups, not his contribution in those lineups, can't stand because in 2023-24 season Nuggets used 62 different lineups that played more than 10 minutes together. Jokic was part of 35 of those. He spent 72% of minutes on the flour when he played. But somehow he wasn't contributing to those lineups defending better when he was in the game, but those lineups made his defensive rating top 3 among Nuggets, 8th best defensive team that season.

OK

I don’t know how to respond beyond reiterating that you’re misusing a team/line up based stat to derive a players individual impact.

[DimesandKnicks]

You've not moved to "lets use one year" vs using multie year.

We've already covered the public data shows Jokic in the top 80% of pick and roll defenders in terms of points allowed.

Rim protection sure, as said from the start this is a weakness. it's however offset by reduced free throws and contested rebounds won by Jokic.

The "evidence" was already explained.

And I've got nothing on this search, that produces nothing for me.

Do you get that you’ve never quantified how his reduced FT rates and contested rebounds won don’t even “offset” his poor rim defense? I just gave you the numbers. It’s as if you think simply saying “offset” is a quantitative formula that gives you a numerical output.

Can you actually quantify in points (as you’ve asked me to do) how his contested rebounds and reduced ft rates (ignoring for your sake that this isn’t true in the playoffs) outside of your 2.6 number because that number isn’t greater than what he gives up in points at the rim.

It’s a really simple question that you keep evading by saying u did it already but you have not. You’ve provided a ballpark number, but that number doesn’t magically offset his rim defense just because you were able to produce it

We've gone over approximate numbers on the rim side already, might have done this more than a month ago.

The problem you're having is you're acting like if a team scores 9 points at the rim against him, he gave up 9 points in the sense that the other team scored 9 more than an expected value. That isn't the case. As you seemingly pull different numbers up from random news articles it's hard to discuss stats and you want to keep veering into one year data vs multie. But we can reasonably quantify that the average shooting at the rim vs the shooting at the rim against jokic. The delta is the additional points allowed.

But lets try and adjust this for a second. What is a bad defender in a way we can discuss with numbers? If your team is going to be 1 point per 100 worse due to your defense is that good, bad, average? If you're 3 points worse what is that? Now obviously, to perhaps the point on RAPM, Jokic makes his team's defense better because he makes his team's offense better. So we're I assume trying to control that aspect as well as we don't want to give his offense a defensive value. This is a real reason why the O and the D RAPM likely as I've been saying overrates Jokic on the defensive end. Or perhaps better point there's a 3rd bucket in a perfect world we'd address. But honestly, we're carrying this over from another thread where as far as I'm concerned the topic was resolved. I'm not sure why we're back to it.

The data, stats, and film are what they are.

Feel like you used a lot of words to say no

[Cubbies2120]

Gonna be real interesting going back through these posts when the Nuggets win it all this year...

*Pending half their salary not being in suits on the bench or having only 3 functional limbs