WT: Jazz Shopping Jefferson, Millsap

[Johnny Firpo]

Great idea imo, pair those young guys up from the get go, no need for them to wait, they get experience, and another high draft pick is coming, and their core will be set in the summer of 2012. I would start Harris-Burks-Hayward-Enes-Favors, that's a really promising (for the future) core already, and imagine if they get another high pick next year's draft.

[RutgersBJJ]

I bet there are some GM's around the league that are still intrigued by Jefferson's empty stats. Utah is doing the right thing, blow that team up and showcase your youth. Give your fans something to be excited about and let your young talent determine your future. If they struggle then you are just looking at getting even richer prospect-wise (though you run into the issue of possibly repeating this cycle next off-season if you land Davis or Drummond in the draft).

[BH8]

I bet there are some GM's around the league that are still intrigued by Jefferson's empty stats. Utah is doing the right thing, blow that team up and showcase your youth. Give your fans something to be excited about and let your young talent determine your future. If they struggle then you are just looking at getting even richer prospect-wise (though you run into the issue of possibly repeating this cycle next off-season if you land Davis or Drummond in the draft).

I can't see anybody jumping on Jefferson, at least not for anything good. Maybe they can dump him on Devner for Birdman.

[BadWolf]

However, Jefferson is a rare offensive threat. In my book, that's the offensive weapon you want to build a successful playoff offense around, and its a rare thing to find in the NBA today.

shown in his enormous post-season success?

[shangrila]

However, Jefferson is a rare offensive threat. In my book, that's the offensive weapon you want to build a successful playoff offense around, and its a rare thing to find in the NBA today.

shown in his enormous post-season success?

Yeah, there's no way you can build an offence around Jefferson. He doesn't draw fouls and doesn't pass the ball well enough. He scores, inefficiently, and that's about it.

[Scraptor]

I think either will fetch much less than Jazz fans think. Jefferson, with his contract and defense, is slightly above neutral value. Millsap is on a very good contract but limited to one position which he plays more or less at an average starter level. For those reasons, no one is breaking the bank talentwise in a trade for either.

Yep. Both guys are decent but flawed, and by now have been heavily scouted, so it's unlikely that teams see a lot of upside in either one. I'm a big fan of Millsap and I don't think I'd offer a ton for him.

I'm curious though: how much better than Millsap do they expect Kanter to be?

[tsherkin]

Jefferson was always a bad idea because he's a weak passer, a weak defender and his scoring efficiency is below average. He's kind of a deceptive player, because he has pretty stats and isn't actually a really good option for a team. Millsap, on the other hand, isn't as good a rebounder but is much more useful and effective on offense and is the guy they should keep around for a while. At least until Favors really gets going, anyway, or they can get something really wicked for him in the backcourt.

[Winsome Gerbil]

However, Jefferson is a rare offensive threat. In my book, that's the offensive weapon you want to build a successful playoff offense around, and its a rare thing to find in the NBA today.

shown in his enormous post-season success?

Yeah, there's no way you can build an offence around Jefferson. He doesn't draw fouls and doesn't pass the ball well enough. He scores, inefficiently, and that's about it.

More of the modern day "advanced stat" dumbness where a career 50% low post scorer doesn't score efficiently. You know Kareem didn't draw many fouls either, on his way to 6 MVPs 5 rings and the all time scoring title. Other non-FT drawers who were the key bigs on title winning/contending teams include Rik Smits, Chris Webber, Rasheed Wallace, Dave Cowens etc. etc. FT drawing is nice, but you can get it done and win big without it.

Not that Jefferson is Kareem. The criticisms of his defense and passing are apt. But criticizing one of the best low post scorers in the game for his offense is kind of silly, especially given the long and decorated role low post scorers have had on title teams. Very few can do what he does as well as he does, and its the continuing attraction. Slip him onto the right team as a post scoring specialist ala a modern Bill Cartwright or something, and he could make a difference for somebody.

Now if somebody wants to still acquire him to be their main star, well then we gotta talk.

[Johnny Firpo]

Kareem is a career 0.59%TS scorer, peaked at, what, 0.63%? Big Al is a career 0.53%TS scorer. Of course it's perfectly legit to criticize Big Al's scoring efficiency, because it's simply not there. There is no dumbness here. Al is a very good low-post scorer, and that's it. He's not a good scorer overall. You don't want him to be your first option, and you don't want to build any offense around him. Well, if you wanna win games, that is, but i guess we agree on that. I also agree he can make a difference for somebody, but it's gotta be a special situation... Like an elite defensive team, with elite 3 point shooters, without any kind of low, or even mid post threat. But are there any team like that out there? I don't think so.

[BadWolf]

Al takes a lot of time for his post moves. he might be good at that and a solid option for some situations, but he kills ball movement and offensive tempo.

[shangrila]

More of the modern day "advanced stat" dumbness where a career 50% low post scorer doesn't score efficiently. You know Kareem didn't draw many fouls either, on his way to 6 MVPs 5 rings and the all time scoring title. Other non-FT drawers who were the key bigs on title winning/contending teams include Rik Smits, Chris Webber, Rasheed Wallace, Dave Cowens etc. etc. FT drawing is nice, but you can get it done and win big without it.

Are you kidding? Kareem drew a ton of fouls his first 3 seasons and managed to keep his average above 5 (more or less) for his entire career (until his last few seasons, but lets cut the guy a break when he's in his 40s). Webber had decent FTA averages as well. Jefferson's career FTA average is 3.6, a couple below both Webber and Kareem, not to mention Jefferson's career best was 5 a game.

Not that Jefferson is Kareem. The criticisms of his defense and passing are apt. But criticizing one of the best low post scorers in the game for his offense is kind of silly, especially given the long and decorated role low post scorers have had on title teams. Very few can do what he does as well as he does, and its the continuing attraction. Slip him onto the right team as a post scoring specialist ala a modern Bill Cartwright or something, and he could make a difference for somebody.

He's not one of the best low post scorers. He probably has the best footwork, but he doesn't really add anything on offence. He draws double teams but he doesn't pass it out, so what's the point? He can get his little hook shot off, but he doesn't draw fouls so there's never any real pressure on opposing bigs.

Slip anyone onto the right team and they can make a difference. I'll admit, if Jefferson had maybe gone to Cleveland and teamed with Lebron he could have been alright, but the entire point of the post was that someone claimed you could build an offence around him. You can't. It's a fact.

[EscapoTHB]

I like Milsap. Don't know what team he improves enough to give up much for him though. I mean he's a guy you trade for to put around a superstar who needs help...

[tsherkin]

Winsome, you couldn't have picked a worse example than Kareem. He drew fouls more effectively than Big Al and his FG% was sky-high. And all of the big scorers we care about post-wise hovered 55, 56% TS or better. Al does not, he's below league-average.

[Jazza2319]

I'd say its doubtful both guys get moved, and as of right now, Jefferson is more valuable. Mainly because Carl Landry (comparable and probably a little cheaper) and David West (better all-around player) are available to sign, the other team doesn't have to give up anything.

Initially i thought of Indy being interested in Big Al, something along the lines of:

Al Jefferson + CJ Miles for Danny Granger + George Hill / AJ Price

Another deal would be with denver

Al + CJ for Wilson Chandler

If it were me, i'd hold onto Millsap and trade Al for a swingman

[Winsome Gerbil]

Winsome, you couldn't have picked a worse example than Kareem. He drew fouls more effectively than Big Al and his FG% was sky-high. And all of the big scorers we care about post-wise hovered 55, 56% TS or better. Al does not, he's below league-average.

I'm going to invent a new stat here just for ilustrative purposes. OBVIOUSLY Kareem shot a lot more FTs...because Kareem got to take a lot more shots. But if you compare Kareem's career FGs per FT to Jefferson's, he still does better, but its hardly a whole different class.

Kareem
Career FG: 28307
Career FT: 9304
Career FGs per FT: 3.04

Jefferson
Career FG: 6490
Career FT: 1765
Career FGs per FT: 3.68

Smits 3.57
Webber 3.85
Garnett 3.30
Cowens 4.83
Wallace 4.26

Now you compare any of those guys to somebody like a Pau Gasol (2.18 FG/FT) or Yao Ming (2.16 FG/FT) and they don't get it done. And yet that list, other than Jefferson, is not randomly constructed. All of those guys were their team's main interior weapons, and all of them were title contenders, HOFers, or both. People get over hung up on FTs. I actually think the lack of consistent passing to beat double teams is a much larger limiting factor.

[tsherkin]

I agree that FTAs alone aren't the biggest issue. And FTA/FGA is actually a pretty good way to assess foul draw rate, although that's the inverse of what you did. And I agree that the passing is bigger than just the draw rate. But scoring efficiency is still important and Kareem's combination of draw AND higher FG% made his scoring efficiency a lot better; it's not just the FT part. It's that Al is a below-average player in terms of efficiency. And a time-waster who doesn't pass well. At least with older Webber, he didn't kill ball movement.

[mcfly1204]

Jefferson to Charlotte for Diaw/Augustin/2013 POR 1st. Jefferson would pair well with TT and Biyomba, and Utah brings in Augustin to compete with Harris for the starting role, with the loser likely being put on the block.

[tsherkin]

Here's the other problem: KAJ did more with his FTAs than Al, scoring .241 FT per FGA against Al's .192. That is another example of his greater efficiency. I mean, it shows through at every level; Al doesn't stack up well against other post scorers in efficiency measured at any level. Yes, his FG% is around 50% but his peers did more, which means he's more of a competent second or third option as opposed to a quality first iption post scorer, even holding passing aside.

[iDunk]

They're stupid to shop Millsap. I understand Jefferson, but not Millsap.

He has not reached his peak yet , and I honestly don't think Favors will ever be as good as Milsap. Maybe in other areas but not the areas which Millsap excels at.

[LApwnd]

Jefferson is no worse then Zbo, people use to say the exact same thing bout Zbo as some here are saying of Al, give Jefferson Mem type situation and they flourish, all this negativity will disappear.