Hero wrote:I don't agree with acting like win shares, TS, defensive efficiency etc are going to play a major role in MVP voting. The main stats the voters focus on are Team wins, field goal percentage, 3 P percentage, points,assists, rebounds,steals,blocks and defense. I've never seen an advanced stat used on an ESPN or ABC broadcast. Not on a team's broadcast either. These are the people who are voting on the awards.
They usually go by the best player on the best team unless you have an exceptional player like LeBron on a 2nd 3rd best team. Even so, Rose was able to win when LeBron's team finished a couple games behind him and to me that was more because of his story than anything.
There's no way KD wins it over LeBron if his record isn't better. LeBron is the best player in the league and the defending finals and regular season MVP. They're not just going to give it to KD because he has better advanced stats. Sure his raw stats are good but unless he has a better record, they mean nothing. LeBron isn't going to get docked points because he hasn't scored as much as KD. They'll focus on his assists and defense. They'll look at his efficiency ( Field goal and 3P %). People can go on about KD's TS% but that means nothing for the MVP race.
I actually thought Jules' list was pretty good. Let's look at it again, with the #10 spot not filled by Durant (because his number is still in flux this year):
01. Kareem (1972) .340
02. Kareem (1971) .326
03. Wilt --- (1964) .325
04. Kareem (1973) .326
05. Lebron (2013) .322
06. Jordan (1991) .321
07. Lebron (2009) .308
08. Jordan (1996) .317
09. Jordan (1988) .308
10. Lebron (2010) .299
11. Lebron (2012) .298
12. Robinson (1994) .296
Of course, Lebron at .290 this season isn't far behind Durant for the league lead.
Durant would be #10 with a .302 figure. LeBron would be like #17 or #18 with his .290, I think it is.
That list, 9 of the 12 players won MVPs in the above seasons. Those who didn't are 1964 Wilt, 1973 Kareem, 1994 Robinson.
Here's the problem with the list, though, if you're Durant.
There are five people on the list. All of those five won MVPs. Three of the five won MVPs in seasons represented above (KAJ, LBJ, MJ). But, only one of the three who won the award for the first time with one of the years represented above did so without also having the best record in the league.
What that means, to me -- and this is what i was talking about in another recent post on this thread -- is that it's very difficult to "break through" as a new MVP candidate unless you have the best record in the league or else blow away the competition. Especially when you're going against someone with the legacy of LeBron.
The person who was able to win the MVP for the first time with one of the seasons on the above list who did not have the best record in the league for his team was Jordan in 1987-1988. Let's look at how Jordan fared that year in a few metrics:
PPG -------> #1; +4.3 ppg better than next person
WS/48 ----> #1; .055 better than next person
PER --------> #1; +3.9 better than next person
Jordan in 1988 (35/6/6; 54% FG; 60% TS) blew away the competition in all metrics except team wins. This allowed him to break onto the scene and overtake some more established players (who were on better teams) for MVP. Players like Magic and Bird.
Suffice it to say, Durant is not "blowing away" the league or LeBron in the same manner which Jordan did all others in 1987-88. He is +2.3 up over his nearest rival in PPG, but LeBron is fairly close in WS/48 and LeBron leads KD (3rd in league) in PER.
Thus, the precedent for a Non-Best-Record-In-The-League, First-Time-MVP-Winner to win the trophy based upon a dominant WS/48 mark is to individually blow away the competition in a manner which Durant is currently not on a course to do. Of course, if OKC ends up with the best record in the league and Durant gets a historic WS/48 number, that would probably help his case immensely. But that might not be where we are headed.
When you saw Jordan in 1987-88, you thought "this is the best player in the league" (even though there were questions about whether or not he could win the big one). When you see Durant in 2013-14, so far, you think "this might be the best player in the league."
I don't think that's enough to unseat LeBron, who is still in his prime and has won 4 of the last 5 MVP trophies. If LeBron weren't around, Durant cakewalks to the award. But since LeBron is around, I think Durant is going to have to put up an incredible case to win the award (possibly some combination of: best record in conference/league; best PPG; best WS/48; best PER; etc). That is, I think Durant is going to have to clearly beat the champion to take his title belt away from him, as Jordan did in 1988 against Bird and Magic.
Right now, I don't think that has happened so far this season. But we still have 50 games or so to go, and thus there is plenty of time for Durant, and everyone else, to make his and their case or cases.
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One other thing, and I mentioned this on an earlier version of the MVP discussion. LeBron is on a team seeking a 4th straight Finals appearance. What this implies is that he, and the team, are likely to be more worn down than other players and teams from playing more games. This is why I said earlier in the MVP discussion that LeBron looks more "fatigued" to me than "in decline."
Though I don't have my research notes handy, my offhand recollection is that the Heat are currently on pace to tie the best mark since like 1980 for team wins for a team seeking a 4th straight Finals appearance. One of the Lakers teams, can't recall which but I think in the 1980's, won 63 games in a similar scenario. Miami is presently on track to win 63 games.
Thus, MVP voters may view LeBron on a bit of a "curve" this year as regards his performance, with the understanding of what he and the team are attempting to do and how hard that is and how such a run tends to reduce the team record (and possibly individual stats) in the potential-4th-straight-Finals year. I am almost certain Jordan has said he was not sure he could win a 4th straight Finals in 1994 because he was so physically and mentally exhausted from the 3-peat (and 3 straight Finals seasons). I can't recall his exact words, but they were something along those lines, I think.
Once Jordan took some time away, he was able to come back and win three more titles as well as 2 more MVP awards. I'm not saying LeBron is Jordan, but I would hesitate to look at his performance this year (whether he does or does not win MVP) and say "this might be the end of his peak" or "he is in decline." Guys get burnt out, and worn down. If it could happen to Jordan, it can happen to anyone, IMO.
