Zach Lowe article on Suns and Sixers rebuild going in different directions

[Snotbubbles]

I don't care if this 76ers rebuild takes 5+ years, which in undoubtedly will

That's totally fine, and it's your right. The problem is that a lot of people do care. From the article:

Philly needs to nail the draft, because big-time free agents don’t appear willing to consider the Sixers until they start winning a respectable number of games. Some agents have even called around to other teams, trying to ignite trade talks that would get their players out of Philadelphia, according to several league sources.

Some fans may be willing to wait forever. Some fans are surely not. But if the *players* aren't willing to put up with it then that strategy may be asking for trouble.

The Knicks already have a star, and the Lakers are still the Lakers...and we've seen what's happened to those teams in free agency this year. The Sixers (or any other team) can still try to build by losing, but the margin of error gets a lot smaller in an NBA where every team has cap space and players want to win.

I'm trying hard to understand your point. The whole point of Philly's rebuild is to land a star. There are three ways to land a star: 1.) Free agency; 2.) Trade; or 3.) Draft.

Start with #1. If LA and NY couldn't land a star player in FA, why would Philly want to rely on that avenue being in a less attractive market? I love Philly, but being realistic, it's not LA, NY or Miami. So it would be absolutely foolish for Philly to try and build a team on the hopes of landing a star through Free Agency. I won't say impossible, but probably extremely difficult.

Next is #2. If the Sixers want to land a star through a trade they are going to need certain things. Those things are called assets. Assets can be players, picks or cap space. So wouldn't it make sense for a team who is trying to acquire a star through trade to accumulate assets so that when a star becomes available they can make the best offer?

Finally #3. If the Sixers want to land a star, the most probable way to do it is to draft that star.

[blitz41]

Its tough for me, while theres no denying the power of top 3 picks, it just seems to me that most teams who got those high picks when they mattered "lucked" into them, not that they tanked for years to get them. The other problem i have is in 10-15 years chunks you get 1 maybe 2 generational talents that are needed to consistently win and win chips, if you dont get those players, you are spending literally decades tanking for nothing.

The other thing that concerns me about Philly's strat is that if it actually works well, it will be a league defining moment. I think forbes only had 5 teams on their list last year who make less than 10 million in operating profits and only 1 who was actually negative (nets). A league where every year you could have over half of the teams tanking, would be appalling.

If you ask me, the right way to do this is to treadmill, work your hardest to put together playoff teams and compete every year. With no guarantees coming from the draft or FA, all you can do is put together a competitor and pray to god(not that im actually religious) for something to break (somtimes literally) your way.

[Sixersftw]

Is there any idea of when this" strategy will end (as in win now FA signed, asset collection turned into win now pieces)?
I honestly do not know and know it's not exactly a cut and dry answer, but is there some expectation for a contender to emerge?
Is it something that could go on indefinitely if the picks don't pan out?

Piggybacking CoreyGallagher's here. There is an expectation of a contender to emerge. The plan has been oversimplified to keep drafting until a pick pans out but in reality those picks could easily be consolidated. Hinkie's presentation to the ownership was the Harden trade (in NBA circles he gets a lot of credit for that trade apparently). He showed every individual trade that got him to his superstar. Surveying his moves over the last 2.3 years it looks like he has 2 outs. Most of his draft picks pan out and you become a good team organically or he uses the picks and players he has amassed to position himself to jump when another team gets desperate and has to move a game changing player.

[joeyAdaMan]

Is there any idea of when this" strategy will end (as in win now FA signed, asset collection turned into win now pieces)?
I honestly do not know and know it's not exactly a cut and dry answer, but is there some expectation for a contender to emerge?
Is it something that could go on indefinitely if the picks don't pan out?

Piggybacking CoreyGallagher's here. There is an expectation of a contender to emerge. The plan has been oversimplified to keep drafting until a pick pans out but in reality those picks could easily be consolidated. Hinkie's presentation to the ownership was the Harden trade (in NBA circles he gets a lot of credit for that trade apparently). He showed every individual trade that got him to his superstar. Surveying his moves over the last 2.3 years it looks like he has 2 outs. Most of his draft picks pan out and you become a good team organically or he uses the picks and players he has amassed to position himself to jump when another team gets desperate and has to move a game changing player.

this sums it up perfectly me thinks....obviously worst case scenario is none of the players pan out and we are not able to flip the picks...but at that point we might as well just discontinue the 76ers as an organization and move on......

[miltk]

"If Philly is really willing to do this for five, six, or seven seasons, it almost cannot fail. It will either land a superstar or draft so many good players that they will gather a solid NBA team." -

this is so not true, and philly is literally proving the point as we speak. minnie and the cklips have already created a model for failure

[CoreyGallagher]

this is so not true, and philly is literally proving the point as we speak. minnie and the cklips have already created a model for failure

This is the East.

[JDizzel3000]

Who is this young talent we dumped? Marcus Morris?

Now I'm no fan of the Suns and I obviously don't have the inside info that their fans may have on their players but looking at Marcus' age his advanced stats and his small cap hit ...it seems as though you gave up something of value for absolutely nothing out of desperation ...which is generally not consistent with good decision making in NBA terms

suns fans wanted the team to trade marcus bc many of us thought his presence on the roster was harmful to markieff's professionalism. markieff is the better twin with a better contract. but reasonable minds could disagree about whether that trade was good or not.

overall it was a pretty accurate article from a suns fan perspective. maybe hardcore/realgm suns fans are more likely to buy into the 'champoinship-or-bust' perspective, but the overall fanbase just wants to root for a winner. the suns used to be more popular than the arizona cardinals here despite being "on the teadmill" for the last half century.

suns fans, by definition, aren't the 'championship or bust' type. because whenever each of us became fans, we became fans of a team which, in the end, lost.

Fair enough ....I wouldn't consider those Nash teams treadmill squads tho ...they had MVP players plenty of depth etc etc ... They were contenders ...treadmill teams aren't contenders

[tidho]

There isn't a team in the league that's going to get free agent stars without already have a star there. Unless you've got a top 10 type player you're increasingly less likely to ever be able to attract a top level free agent. The only way to get your first one is to draft them, so bottoming out (whether you actually tank or not) is almost a necessity.

Hinkie has taken a reasonable strategy to an extreme level. I think a big part of this is that he keeps drafting injured guys and that's probably added a year and a half to the overall plan, which is why its beginning to look ridiculous.

[Goudelock]

Maybe this is being overly simplistic/not true, but it seems like a portion of the Sixer fanbase thinks that after 3 or 4 years of tanking, their team is going to instantly transform from a cellar-dweller to a top 3 seed and a perennial spot in the ECF. Do those fans not realize that you have to be a "treadmill team" for a few years after the tanking before you become a contender?

[madmaxmedia]

Its tough for me, while theres no denying the power of top 3 picks, it just seems to me that most teams who got those high picks when they mattered "lucked" into them, not that they tanked for years to get them. The other problem i have is in 10-15 years chunks you get 1 maybe 2 generational talents that are needed to consistently win and win chips, if you dont get those players, you are spending literally decades tanking for nothing.

I think this is a very valid concern- if a bad team has say 5% chance (for example) at drafting a generational superstar, then Philly is eating a few bad seasons for, what, a 25% chance at landing a generational superstar? Is that worth it? But that's up to the franchise and the city to decide.

The other thing that concerns me about Philly's strat is that if it actually works well, it will be a league defining moment. I think forbes only had 5 teams on their list last year who make less than 10 million in operating profits and only 1 who was actually negative (nets). A league where every year you could have over half of the teams tanking, would be appalling.

I don't think it will never get to that regardless of Sixers' success or failure.

If you ask me, the right way to do this is to treadmill, work your hardest to put together playoff teams and compete every year. With no guarantees coming from the draft or FA, all you can do is put together a competitor and pray to god(not that im actually religious) for something to break (somtimes literally) your way.

Although I sort of agree with you, I also don't think there's a right or wrong answer to this. You're really talking degrees of risk here...if you could trade a very good but not transcendent veteran for the #1 pick in the next draft, would you do it, assuming it means you miss the playoffs this year? The #1 draft pick could work out great, or he could be a bust.

The Sixers are just doing it to an extreme.

[GameofLoans666]

The frightening part of that article was that he's suggesting the Sixers are going to keep this going for another 4 or 5 drafts and Josh Harris is happy that he is turning a profit thanks to revenue sharing. Expect that thing to be hammered to death in the next CBA negotiations.

Can you cite the excerpt that that is suggested?

Is there any idea of when this" strategy will end (as in win now FA signed, asset collection turned into win now pieces)?
I honestly do not know and know it's not exactly a cut and dry answer, but is there some expectation for a contender to emerge?
Is it something that could go on indefinitely if the picks don't pan out?

It's simple when the "tank" ends.

1) When our young players are good enough to get us in the playoffs. That means we have a transcendent talent, or a collection of strong young talent to get us to that point.

2) When we use our assets to trade for a James Harden/Cousins, etc. sort of situation. Not predictable, but in a span of 5 years, random things happen all the time.

3) When it's clear that we picked an Anthony Davis level talent.

It takes discipline to get to that point. But anything less than that is cheating the process.

I'm a 4th year, lower level season ticket holder. I'm pretty damn happy with paying 5 digit figures every year for tickets and I"m not an idiot. I understand salary cap, player contracts, game theory, etc. etc. And the team honestly doesn't even need my money because it has several ways of being profitable.

[tidho]

Maybe this is being overly simplistic/not true, but it seems like a portion of the Sixer fanbase thinks that after 3 or 4 years of tanking, their team is going to instantly transform from a cellar-dweller to a top 3 seed and a perennial spot in the ECF. Do those fans not realize that you have to be a "treadmill team" for a few years after the tanking before you become a contender?

You won't jump from the bottom to the top right away, but that's different than being a treadmill team. For instance, the Suns arguably are a treadmill team because the potential to actually contend isn't apparent. Conversely Milwaukee may get bounced early for a few years but (some believe) they could legitimately make noise in the East soon. The question that remains is whether the Sixers expiriment will result in a treadmill team or one that passes through that on the way up.

[joeyAdaMan]

we already did the treadmill....that's kind of why Hinkie is taking this approach to begin with....it's land a superstar in the draft and/or via trade with the "assets" he's collected or BUST.....anything is better than watching us trot out lineups featuring Spencer Hawes and Evan Turner....with Iggy/Brand/Jrue or Bynum as our "centerpiece" LOL.....just no.....

[immortalone23]

There's a difference between a treadmill team and an up-and-coming team. Treadmill is when a team is capped out with vets and have little to no young talent that could develop. Teams like OKC, Indy, and Chicago(pre Rose injury) had gotten the 8th seed, but they had the young talent that made major improvement.

[QRich3]

I think other execs don't like what Philly is doing because they like to pull the wool over their fans eyes by makign their teams perennial 8-5 seeds, with no hope to win anything except some extra revenue in the playoffs. Good luck Phoenix Sun execs & fans, you have no shot to be a contender down the line because you rushed the process and now have little means to finding a superstar.

I think you're making executives to be way more simple than they are. Hinkie didn't come up with tanking by himself, everyone already knew tanking was one of the main strategies to make your way to a championship, including the Suns GM. What Hinkie did that others didn't do is a fantastic job in selling his owner and the majority of his fans that this was the way to go even if it took 5 or 7 years. Cho tried to do the same in Charlotte not long ago, and many GM's before him, but as you're finding out, going this route is not as easy as it was for OKC, when their first 3 top picks developed into superstars. Most likely you're gonna run into trouble and the tank goes a bit longer than the optimistic projections, so you have to keep losing for a couple more years or three. That's when the owner of the team starts putting pressure on you, because the fans are putting pressure of him, because nobody likes to lose 7 or 8 years of their lives rooting for a team designed to lose a lot. That's when the failed tanks start seeing the treadmill as not that bad an option, and start signing veterans to make the lower seeds of the playoffs. Just putting Charlotte as an example, but it's happened countless times. Let's see if Hinkie and Josh Harris bear the public pressure for that long. So far it looks like they will.

this is so not true, and philly is literally proving the point as we speak. minnie and the cklips have already created a model for failure

Didn't the Clips actually prove the success of it? tank as many years as you need, maybe it takes 10 or 12 if your draft picks don't pan out, as soon as you're lucky to get one star (Griffin) it will be a lot easier to get a second (Paul) and build a contender from there.

[SF_Warriors]

The #3 pick in two consecutive drafts while developing a promising prospect like Noel is a huge win in my book.

The ability to absorb contracts to reach the cap floor is also an underrated part of their strategy. Look at what they got from the kings. They gave up zero assets other than some cap space.

So far, it has been two drafts since the tanking began. I do not consider the mcw/noel draft as a tank year, more like a "treadmill" year.

Next draft, looks like two more lotto picks, and hopfully a healthy embiid for the season.
Noel is already a double double player and a mean rim protector.

Not sure about the list of total picks/tpes that sixers have next season, can someone post?

Personally, I would give Hinkie two more drafts and seasons and see where the team is at.

If by end of year 4 season of tanking the team is not in the playoff picture, I would call the strategy a huge failure.

But so far, other than the Embiid snag, I cant see how anyone can call it a failure. It just does not look good right now due to the injury.

It may seem like they are rolling the dice, but if i was an owner and you told me that during the first two years of rebuilding I would get the #3 pick in two consecutive drafts and in addition to that also having a 21 year old double double machine averaging 2blocks/2steals per game, I would be happy.

[heatwillbeback]

Maybe this is being overly simplistic/not true, but it seems like a portion of the Sixer fanbase thinks that after 3 or 4 years of tanking, their team is going to instantly transform from a cellar-dweller to a top 3 seed and a perennial spot in the ECF. Do those fans not realize that you have to be a "treadmill team" for a few years after the tanking before you become a contender?

OKC made the jump pretty quickly, but they drafted two flat out superstars. That is obviously what Philadelphia is going for though I don't think they have one of those guys yet.

[miltk]

There's a difference between a treadmill team and an up-and-coming team. Treadmill is when a team is capped out with vets and have little to no young talent that could develop. Teams like OKC, Indy, and Chicago(pre Rose injury) had gotten the 8th seed, but they had the young talent that made major improvement.

gee really. treadmill - running but staying in place. i don't think that has anything to do with the factors you mentioned.

[immortalone23]

There's a difference between a treadmill team and an up-and-coming team. Treadmill is when a team is capped out with vets and have little to no young talent that could develop. Teams like OKC, Indy, and Chicago(pre Rose injury) had gotten the 8th seed, but they had the young talent that made major improvement.

gee really. treadmill - running but staying in place. i don't think that has anything to do with the factors you mentioned.

What I'm trying to point out is that the team is running, but won't get anywhere.

[joyeuxnoel]

I see the Sixers as how not to build thru the draft.

If you want to see how to build thru the draft look at teams like the Spurs and Jazz.

one of those doesnt look like the other, jazz recent draft history:

2010- hayward. great value for 9th pick. A
2011- kanter- traded for a 2017 protected pick. C-
2011- Burks- decent role player- C+
2012- none
2013- traded dieng and shabazz for trey burke, who are both better than burke- F
2013- traded for gobert - A
2014- exum- As expected he struggled his rookie year since hes raw and needs time to develop, but right now all his potential hinders on if he can actually finish or that first step is useless- INCOMPLETE
2014- hood- log jammed behind burks- INCOMPLETE
2015-trey lyles- INCOMPLETE

the jazz aren't awful at drafting, but i wouldn't say they're on the spurs level either

also how is the sixers way not how to build through the draft? acquire as many high draft picks as possible, draft BPA. more likely than not you'll hit than bust