Will the Pistons finally make the leap?

[tmorgan]

I like Drummond's offense but he plays some terrible D. The Stanley Johnson pick is nice but I don't think he's going to be a difference maker in his first year - At least not to be able to get them to the playoffs. Ultimately I see them on the outside looking in if I had to put money on it. They could potentially get that last spot though.

This just isn't correct. Drummond doesn't play terrible defense, that's ridiculous. Don't confuse "he should be a lot better, but he's still making a lot of mental mistakes" with "he sucks". I'm comfortable calling him average, which is not what you're looking for from a guy with his size and athletic ability, but he's getting better.

Naw....I stand by my comment. I've seen JV pick the guy apart time after time with pump fakes. JV cant even shoot. Suspect D. Nor did I say he sucks. I said he plays bad D.

That's nice. I stand by the actual statistics -- average -- as opposed to your anecdotal pseudo-evidence.

(and yes, the "he sucks" was referring to his defense, which, given your comment, I figured you'd understand)

[MotownMadness]

I like Drummond's offense but he plays some terrible D. The Stanley Johnson pick is nice but I don't think he's going to be a difference maker in his first year - At least not to be able to get them to the playoffs. Ultimately I see them on the outside looking in if I had to put money on it. They could potentially get that last spot though.

This just isn't correct. Drummond doesn't play terrible defense, that's ridiculous. Don't confuse "he should be a lot better, but he's still making a lot of mental mistakes" with "he sucks". I'm comfortable calling him average, which is not what you're looking for from a guy with his size and athletic ability, but he's getting better.

Naw....I stand by my comment. I've seen JV pick the guy apart time after time with pump fakes. JV cant even shoot. Suspect D. Nor did I say he sucks. I said he plays bad D.

I also remember watching one of their more recent match ups were Drummond blocked everything he tried throwing up against him. It eventually got to where JV wouldn't even attempt shooting on him. JV has always done very well against Drummond though. Almost better then any other big he faces.

[The Realist]

Definitely not.

[JShuttlesworth]

This just isn't correct. Drummond doesn't play terrible defense, that's ridiculous. Don't confuse "he should be a lot better, but he's still making a lot of mental mistakes" with "he sucks". I'm comfortable calling him average, which is not what you're looking for from a guy with his size and athletic ability, but he's getting better.

Naw....I stand by my comment. I've seen JV pick the guy apart time after time with pump fakes. JV cant even shoot. Suspect D. Nor did I say he sucks. I said he plays bad D.

I also remember watching one of their more recent match ups were Drummond blocked everything he tried throwing up against him. It eventually got to where JV wouldn't even attempt shooting on him. JV has always done very well against Drummond though. Almost better then any other big he faces.

No doubt Drummond has beasted against JV - But not on the defensive end. Last year the Raptors and Pistons played 4 times. Drummond had 1 block in each game with exception to December 19, where he had 3 blocks (7 points, 11 boards, 3 blocks). That same game JV had 17 points, 8 board, 2 blocks in 27 minutes. I would hardly call that blocking everything - Although maybe all 3 blocks could have been on JV, admittedly I don't remember, but that is unlikely.

The last matchup of the season is the only time Drummond bettered JV last year where he put up 28 and grabbed 18 boards.

Game 1: http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201412190DET.html
Game 2: http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201501120TOR.html
Game 3: http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201501250TOR.html
Game 4: http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201503240DET.html

[JShuttlesworth]

This just isn't correct. Drummond doesn't play terrible defense, that's ridiculous. Don't confuse "he should be a lot better, but he's still making a lot of mental mistakes" with "he sucks". I'm comfortable calling him average, which is not what you're looking for from a guy with his size and athletic ability, but he's getting better.

Naw....I stand by my comment. I've seen JV pick the guy apart time after time with pump fakes. JV cant even shoot. Suspect D. Nor did I say he sucks. I said he plays bad D.

That's nice. I stand by the actual statistics -- average -- as opposed to your anecdotal pseudo-evidence.

(and yes, the "he sucks" was referring to his defense, which, given your comment, I figured you'd understand)

When you put something in quotes it implies that someone said that. That's why their called quotes. I thought you'd understand that.

I never said Drummond sucks - I said he has suspect D.

[76ciology]

Sooner they focus on efficiency, the sooner they can make that leap. And it starts by realizing that you can't build a post oriented offense around Drummond nor a small ball with Jennings/Jackson.

[MotownMadness]

Naw....I stand by my comment. I've seen JV pick the guy apart time after time with pump fakes. JV cant even shoot. Suspect D. Nor did I say he sucks. I said he plays bad D.

I also remember watching one of their more recent match ups were Drummond blocked everything he tried throwing up against him. It eventually got to where JV wouldn't even attempt shooting on him. JV has always done very well against Drummond though. Almost better then any other big he faces.

No doubt Drummond has beasted against JV - But not on the defensive end. Last year the Raptors and Pistons played 4 times. Drummond had 1 block in each game with exception to December 19, where he had 3 blocks (7 points, 11 boards, 3 blocks). That same game JV had 17 points, 8 board, 2 blocks in 27 minutes. I would hardly call that blocking everything - Although maybe all 3 blocks could have been on JV, admittedly I don't remember, but that is unlikely.

The last matchup of the season is the only time Drummond bettered JV last year where he put up 28 and grabbed 18 boards.

Game 1: http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201412190DET.html
Game 2: http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201501120TOR.html
Game 3: http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201501250TOR.html
Game 4: http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201503240DET.html

I believe he Dis have 3 blocks on him in like the 1st qtr. then he got into foul trouble and JV went off against Joel Anthony. Drummond has a bad problem getting himself into foul trouble as well. He just needs to raise his awareness all around because he has the potential and tools to be a damn good defender. I'll admit though overall Val has outplayed Drummond to this point in their matchups and it's really not very debatable.

[Potential]

Top 3 in the east. They'll be like the 2014 Raptors.

[vic]

Let me preface this by saying that I'm not a Pistons fan.

I just love NBA basketball and have been thinking a lot about which teams will be better than expected and which teams will be worse.

Based on the tape I watched last season I believe the Pistons are going to break through and have a winning season this year. For the past three years there have been media members that have talked about the Pistons making the playoffs but each and every one has ignored the actual construction of the team.

Greg Monroe, Andre Drummond, and (even) Josh Smith are talented basketball players but they don't fit together.
The spacing for the team has been bad and they've been unable to score or defend at a high level.

However, based on what I saw last season I feel they have the bones to be a 45 win basketball team this year.

Factors

Fit: After many years the team finally makes sense from a fit perspective. They have complimented Drummond with a PG that can attack,pass, and finish out of the PnR (Reggie Jackson), and have surrounded that attack with adequate shooters from the 3pt line (Ilyasova, Meeks, Tolliver, Pope, Marcus Morris Jennings). Toward the end of the year that Reggie/Andre PnR was eating teams up.

Defensively the team seems to make more sense as well. Rather than trotting out the corpse of Tayshaun Prince, they drafted Stanley Johnson (a long wing that should be able to guard 2-3 positions) and they acquired Ersan/Marcus who can switch onto 2s, 3s, and 4s.

Talent: From a talent standpoint they still are in the top 10 in the East. I personally think they have more talent than the Celtics and Nets. In terms of talent they are competitive with the Pacers, but they have the lead in...

Continuity: Most of this roster has had a year to learn under Stan Van Gundy. Players should feel more comfortable and actions should flow more easily. Especially on defense, where they were terrible on the perimeter. Even Drummond struggled mightily with being in position on defense.

Bottom Line: They have the versatility and depth to be very aggressive on defense and generate ball pressure that they couldn't in the past. They also have a bread and butter spread PnR attack they can go to over and over. Add in some slight improvements to Drummond's passing/defense and increased reps/growth for Jackson/Pope/Dinwiddie and they should be a problem.

I'm quite impressed, you have more bball IQ than a lot of Pistons fans that stare at the team everyday.

Everything you said is on point. When you consider basketball as a team game and a system game as well as a game of individual talent, you have to be blind to see that the Pistons Coach/System/Team/Player fit is 20 times better this year than any year since 2008.

If you want stats, here's stats:

The Pistons had 2 stints last year where they started Three 3 point shooters:
- After Josh Smith was waived and before Jennings was injured
- When Jackson was pg and Greg Monroe was injured

In those 37 games the record was 23-14 = 62% winning percentage

In the 45 games they only started Two 3 point shooters the record was 9-36 = 20% winning percentage

This season SVG has ensured that THREE 3 point shooters will be on the court at the same time for the entirety of every game... and he's improved the defense. So the Pistons record this year is far more likely to be closer to 62% than 20%

[JShuttlesworth]

I also remember watching one of their more recent match ups were Drummond blocked everything he tried throwing up against him. It eventually got to where JV wouldn't even attempt shooting on him. JV has always done very well against Drummond though. Almost better then any other big he faces.

No doubt Drummond has beasted against JV - But not on the defensive end. Last year the Raptors and Pistons played 4 times. Drummond had 1 block in each game with exception to December 19, where he had 3 blocks (7 points, 11 boards, 3 blocks). That same game JV had 17 points, 8 board, 2 blocks in 27 minutes. I would hardly call that blocking everything - Although maybe all 3 blocks could have been on JV, admittedly I don't remember, but that is unlikely.

The last matchup of the season is the only time Drummond bettered JV last year where he put up 28 and grabbed 18 boards.

Game 1: http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201412190DET.html
Game 2: http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201501120TOR.html
Game 3: http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201501250TOR.html
Game 4: http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201503240DET.html

I believe he Dis have 3 blocks on him in like the 1st qtr. then he got into foul trouble and JV went off against Joel Anthony. Drummond has a bad problem getting himself into foul trouble as well. He just needs to raise his awareness all around because he has the potential and tools to be a damn good defender. I'll admit though overall Val has outplayed Drummond to this point in their matchups and it's really not very debatable.

It's quite possible that he did get all those blocks on JV. I don't know how I'd verify that statistic. Both are solid big men, and they are very different players. For whatever reason it does seem to be a good matchup for JV - or has been up until this point in their careers.

I didn't mean to derail the discussions and turn this into a JV vs. Drummond debate.

I like Drummond, he's a solid athlete and he has some amazing potential. Almost wish the Raps took a shot at him over TRoss - although he already had JV so I understand the route we took. Like I said, I think the Pistons could potentially grab a playoff spot. It's going to be up to Reggie and Dre to get them there and I don't think it's going to a cake walk by any stretch.

[Brapman]

The talent and fit on this roster, playing under a top-flight coach, has clearly been upgraded. Claiming otherwise is just plain silliness.

The issue for the Pistons is how fast the team will acclimate to each other, and whether they can play consistently (enough) good BB. The core of this team is very young, and young players are going to make subtle and not so subtle mistakes - way more often than veteran players will.

[MrTwister]

This just isn't correct. Drummond doesn't play terrible defense, that's ridiculous. Don't confuse "he should be a lot better, but he's still making a lot of mental mistakes" with "he sucks". I'm comfortable calling him average, which is not what you're looking for from a guy with his size and athletic ability, but he's getting better.

Naw....I stand by my comment. I've seen JV pick the guy apart time after time with pump fakes. JV cant even shoot. Suspect D. Nor did I say he sucks. I said he plays bad D.

I also remember watching one of their more recent match ups were Drummond blocked everything he tried throwing up against him. It eventually got to where JV wouldn't even attempt shooting on him. JV has always done very well against Drummond though. Almost better then any other big he faces.

Pekovic maybe doesn't play much now, but he always used to destroy Drummond as well.Pau,Boogie, Vucevic also average ~ 20 ppg vs him too.I think its fair to say that he doesn't play well vs any big that actually have offensive skill.

[bulliedog8]

It is crazy that realistically, you could say 13 east teams (minus the 76ers and pacers) could have a chance at the 8 seed. Hard to say which teams stand out in that 7/8 spot.

Cavs, Bulls, Raptors, Hawks, Bucks and Wizards are most likely in. The you figure the heat if healthy. Hornets improved, Pistons working towards that 1 in 4 out orlando offense. Celtics getting older with a great coach. I am not really big on the nets to be real, I think they are actually bottom 3-4 too. Knicks all depends on health to be an 8th seed or a 12 seed. Magic NEED to breakout soon and make the playoffs. They went for it last year and failed miserably.

East is deep, but not really top heavy. Cavs are clear favorites. Bulls easily #2 and then it is a big drop off after that.

[MotownMadness]

Naw....I stand by my comment. I've seen JV pick the guy apart time after time with pump fakes. JV cant even shoot. Suspect D. Nor did I say he sucks. I said he plays bad D.

I also remember watching one of their more recent match ups were Drummond blocked everything he tried throwing up against him. It eventually got to where JV wouldn't even attempt shooting on him. JV has always done very well against Drummond though. Almost better then any other big he faces.

Pekovic maybe doesn't play much now, but he always used to destroy Drummond as well.Pau,Boogie, Vucevic also average ~ 20 ppg vs him too.I think its fair to say that he doesn't play well vs any big that actually have offensive skill.

I'll have to look it up when I get home but last I remember Drummond went off against Vuc and him and Boogie usually take turns beating up on each other. And he also usually destroys the Bulls front court as well, even had a 26 and 26 game.

[zeebneeb]

Let me preface this by saying that I'm not a Pistons fan.

I just love NBA basketball and have been thinking a lot about which teams will be better than expected and which teams will be worse.

Based on the tape I watched last season I believe the Pistons are going to break through and have a winning season this year. For the past three years there have been media members that have talked about the Pistons making the playoffs but each and every one has ignored the actual construction of the team.

Greg Monroe, Andre Drummond, and (even) Josh Smith are talented basketball players but they don't fit together.
The spacing for the team has been bad and they've been unable to score or defend at a high level.

However, based on what I saw last season I feel they have the bones to be a 45 win basketball team this year.

Factors

Fit: After many years the team finally makes sense from a fit perspective. They have complimented Drummond with a PG that can attack,pass, and finish out of the PnR (Reggie Jackson), and have surrounded that attack with adequate shooters from the 3pt line (Ilyasova, Meeks, Tolliver, Pope, Marcus Morris Jennings). Toward the end of the year that Reggie/Andre PnR was eating teams up.

Defensively the team seems to make more sense as well. Rather than trotting out the corpse of Tayshaun Prince, they drafted Stanley Johnson (a long wing that should be able to guard 2-3 positions) and they acquired Ersan/Marcus who can switch onto 2s, 3s, and 4s.

Talent: From a talent standpoint they still are in the top 10 in the East. I personally think they have more talent than the Celtics and Nets. In terms of talent they are competitive with the Pacers, but they have the lead in...

Continuity: Most of this roster has had a year to learn under Stan Van Gundy. Players should feel more comfortable and actions should flow more easily. Especially on defense, where they were terrible on the perimeter. Even Drummond struggled mightily with being in position on defense.

Bottom Line: They have the versatility and depth to be very aggressive on defense and generate ball pressure that they couldn't in the past. They also have a bread and butter spread PnR attack they can go to over and over. Add in some slight improvements to Drummond's passing/defense and increased reps/growth for Jackson/Pope/Dinwiddie and they should be a problem.

I'm quite impressed, you have more bball IQ than a lot of Pistons fans that stare at the team everyday.

Everything you said is on point. When you consider basketball as a team game and a system game as well as a game of individual talent, you have to be blind to see that the Pistons Coach/System/Team/Player fit is 20 times better this year than any year since 2008.

If you want stats, here's stats:

The Pistons had 2 stints last year where they started Three 3 point shooters:
- After Josh Smith was waived and before Jennings was injured
- When Jackson was pg and Greg Monroe was injured

In those 37 games the record was 23-14 = 62% winning percentage

In the 45 games they only started Two 3 point shooters the record was 9-36 = 20% winning percentage

This season SVG has ensured that THREE 3 point shooters will be on the court at the same time for the entirety of every game... and he's improved the defense. So the Pistons record this year is far more likely to be closer to 62% than 20%

Both excellent posts and everything that has been said is the exact reason I am picking them so high. Basketball is a team sport and the system that Stan plays is now perfectly complimented by the players he has grouped together.

Alot of people can't see that, and that's fine. It will become readily apparent about 20 games into the season when there are 5 threads on the general board asking if the Pistons are for real.

SVG has had one losing season his entire career, and guess what? It was last year when he was handed the crap fest Dumars left for him. The difference between the team he inherited last year and the team he had built now (only three players remain)is staggering. He built it to his exacting specs.

This TEAM is better then the sum of its parts.

[MotownMadness]

Naw....I stand by my comment. I've seen JV pick the guy apart time after time with pump fakes. JV cant even shoot. Suspect D. Nor did I say he sucks. I said he plays bad D.

I also remember watching one of their more recent match ups were Drummond blocked everything he tried throwing up against him. It eventually got to where JV wouldn't even attempt shooting on him. JV has always done very well against Drummond though. Almost better then any other big he faces.

Pekovic maybe doesn't play much now, but he always used to destroy Drummond as well.Pau,Boogie, Vucevic also average ~ 20 ppg vs him too.I think its fair to say that he doesn't play well vs any big that actually have offensive skill.

Drummonds last game against Vucevic- 26pts, 17rebs, 4stls, 3blks

Drummonds last game against Pau- 14pts, 22rebs, 6blks

Drummonds last game against Valanciunas- 21pts, 18rebs, 3ast, 1blk, 2stls

Drummonds last game against Cousins- 15pts, 14rebs, 2blks

Drummonds last game against Pek- 17pts, 14rebs, 2stls, 2blks

Drummonds last game against Horford- 22pts, 13rebs, 1blk, 2stls

Drummonds last game against Bosh- 32pts, 14rebs, 2blks

Drummonds last game against Marc Gasol- 16pts, 16rebs, 5blks

Drummonds last game against Jefferson- 15pts, 19rebs, 4ast, 2blks

Drummonds had his up and down moments so far throughout his early career with dysfunctional lineups and 4 different coaches. Once SVG got here though and got the lineup straightened out and a better fitting roster Drummond played much better.

Post All Star break (27 games) Drummond has averaged 16.1ppg, 14.7rpg and 2.2bpg.

[tayottt]

Spoiler:

Let me preface this by saying that I'm not a Pistons fan.

I just love NBA basketball and have been thinking a lot about which teams will be better than expected and which teams will be worse.

Based on the tape I watched last season I believe the Pistons are going to break through and have a winning season this year. For the past three years there have been media members that have talked about the Pistons making the playoffs but each and every one has ignored the actual construction of the team.

Greg Monroe, Andre Drummond, and (even) Josh Smith are talented basketball players but they don't fit together.
The spacing for the team has been bad and they've been unable to score or defend at a high level.

However, based on what I saw last season I feel they have the bones to be a 45 win basketball team this year.

Factors

Fit: After many years the team finally makes sense from a fit perspective. They have complimented Drummond with a PG that can attack,pass, and finish out of the PnR (Reggie Jackson), and have surrounded that attack with adequate shooters from the 3pt line (Ilyasova, Meeks, Tolliver, Pope, Marcus Morris Jennings). Toward the end of the year that Reggie/Andre PnR was eating teams up.

Defensively the team seems to make more sense as well. Rather than trotting out the corpse of Tayshaun Prince, they drafted Stanley Johnson (a long wing that should be able to guard 2-3 positions) and they acquired Ersan/Marcus who can switch onto 2s, 3s, and 4s.

Talent: From a talent standpoint they still are in the top 10 in the East. I personally think they have more talent than the Celtics and Nets. In terms of talent they are competitive with the Pacers, but they have the lead in...

Continuity: Most of this roster has had a year to learn under Stan Van Gundy. Players should feel more comfortable and actions should flow more easily. Especially on defense, where they were terrible on the perimeter. Even Drummond struggled mightily with being in position on defense.

Bottom Line: They have the versatility and depth to be very aggressive on defense and generate ball pressure that they couldn't in the past. They also have a bread and butter spread PnR attack they can go to over and over. Add in some slight improvements to Drummond's passing/defense and increased reps/growth for Jackson/Pope/Dinwiddie and they should be a problem.

I'm quite impressed, you have more bball IQ than a lot of Pistons fans that stare at the team everyday.

Everything you said is on point. When you consider basketball as a team game and a system game as well as a game of individual talent, you have to be blind to see that the Pistons Coach/System/Team/Player fit is 20 times better this year than any year since 2008.

If you want stats, here's stats:

The Pistons had 2 stints last year where they started Three 3 point shooters:
- After Josh Smith was waived and before Jennings was injured
- When Jackson was pg and Greg Monroe was injured

In those 37 games the record was 23-14 = 62% winning percentage

In the 45 games they only started Two 3 point shooters the record was 9-36 = 20% winning percentage

This season SVG has ensured that THREE 3 point shooters will be on the court at the same time for the entirety of every game... and he's improved the defense. So the Pistons record this year is far more likely to be closer to 62% than 20%

Both excellent posts and everything that has been said is the exact reason I am picking them so high. Basketball is a team sport and the system that Stan plays is now perfectly complimented by the players he has grouped together.

Alot of people can't see that, and that's fine. It will become readily apparent about 20 games into the season when there are 5 threads on the general board asking if the Pistons are for real.

SVG has had one losing season his entire career, and guess what? It was last year when he was handed the crap fest Dumars left for him. The difference between the team he inherited last year and the team he had built now (only three players remain)is staggering. He built it to his exacting specs.

This TEAM is better then the sum of its parts.

Thanks for the appreciation.
I didn't even know the Pistons had that sort of winning percentage when playing three shooters.
I definitely prefer the fit of this roster more than prior Pistons seasons.

The only thing that gives me pause regarding my prediction/bet is the defense. In OP I stated they improved their defensive personnel, but i'm not sure by how much. Ersan was a below average defender last year (and stats like RPM rate him as being bad despite playing in many successful defensive lineups). Ersan has been an above average defender playing under Scott Skiles, but he also had veterans next to him. Marcus Morris has been mediocre/bad defensively his whole career. Stanley Johnson can't be expected to be a plus-defender as a rookie. Drummond is going to have to step up on that end if they are going to move from 19th in defense to 15th+. KCP is already a solid defender and Reggie Jackson has the physical tools to at least be average. Baynes is a solid defender but I think he will be a bench player.

Stan Van Gundy has been known to play a conservative style of defense, but this roster would seem to hint at being way more aggressive with doubles/hedges/switches. I'd like to see them get way more aggressive, force turnovers, and get out in transition. That would suit guys like Meeks, Jackson, Morris, and Jennings.

I still like the Pistons depth and believe they should be a few games over .500. It'll be fun watching how SVG adjusts his coaching to this talent.

[tmorgan]

Naw....I stand by my comment. I've seen JV pick the guy apart time after time with pump fakes. JV cant even shoot. Suspect D. Nor did I say he sucks. I said he plays bad D.

That's nice. I stand by the actual statistics -- average -- as opposed to your anecdotal pseudo-evidence.

(and yes, the "he sucks" was referring to his defense, which, given your comment, I figured you'd understand)

When you put something in quotes it implies that someone said that. That's why their called quotes. I thought you'd understand that.

I never said Drummond sucks - I said he has suspect D.

Sometimes it's just not worth trying. If you don't understand me, I can live with that pain.

[saintEscaton]

I think Mook Morris will be their X-Factor

[New York Knick]

I don't think they make the leap into top 3 lottery pick this year, maybe next year. I do however feel a top 5 pick is more realistic and not far from reach.