RealGM Top 25 Player Poll-#19 2018-19

[Homerclease]

Towns by a pretty good margin here. Add Hayward

[iggymcfrack]

I have researched the whole Lowry over Wall thing and found there is actually a arguement there.
Same with klay over wall, just matters what you value.

But in no Way is KAT better than Wall at the current moment,
Wall went up against Avery Bradley (an elite defender) and helped fight the Cs to 7 games a couple years ago.
Towns went up against Capela (an elite defender) and got shut down, cancelled out in most games.
You combine this with that Towns Defence is serverly lacking, and it should be a no brainer Wall over Towns.
Maybe in a couple years this will be different, last year Towns did seem better though because Wall was injured, in the playoffs Wall outperformed towns.
But atm Wall is far superior to Towns.

And what is all this Simmons love about, yes a great player, but not above Wall.
Wall is easily the better scorer (Cs shut down simmons, again what happened with Wall vs Cs?)
Both great playmakers, though Wall is more proven, though if simmons progresses this may change this year or next (I understand the numerical difference is because of the team style of play).
Defensively Simmons is great, but Wall is like All-1st team defence.
Wall is more turnover prone but this is again because of team style of play, and simmons would be similar in the same circumstances.
You cant make an arguement for Simmons over Wall next year, any year after that is up for grabs, but not this coming year, Wall is proven as a star and simmons is still only new on the scene.

If yall disagree I am happy for a debate.

Add Drummond or Hayward
Drummonds a beast
And Hayward will be back pretty solid.

Wall is most certainly not a 1st team all-defense caliber defender and I really don’t think he’s a better defender than Simmons. He was probably close at his absolute athletic peak, but he’s older now and probably just doesn’t feel he has the stamina to give 100% on both ends any more. Here’s his DRPM by year:

2013/14: -0.44 (20th out of 44 point guards)
2014/15: +1.73 (4th out of 57, voted second team all-defense)
2015/16: +0.12 (13th out of 65)
2016/17: -1.26 (49th out of 78)
2017/18: -0.13 (35th out of 99)

And Simmons in his one season:
2017/18: +1.45 (8th out of 99)

Given the learning curve with defense entering the league, I think it’s fair to assume that Simmons will probably be even better on defense next year and should be playing it at a legitimately elite level while Wall will probably not improve at age 28.

Meanwhile Simmons is already a more efficient scorer than Wall as he put a higher TS% last year than Wall ever has for a single season in his career. He’s also a much, much better rebounder although that’s probably factored into why his defense rates so highly. So what’s left? Well Wall scored 3 more PPG and had 1.5 more assists. OK? I wouldn’t expect that to last through next season.

So then you’re solely dinging Simmons for his playoff performances. Considering that he was a rookie and he actually played really well against Miami before being shut down by the best coach of all-time, I’m willing to give him a little bit of a pass. It’s tough adjusting to a new strategy on the fly without a really smart in-game coach to help you through. If he faces the same defense from Stevens this year, I’d expect him to be much better prepared.

The way I see it, the Top 5 point guards are pretty clear. I’d go: 1. Curry 2. Paul 3. Westbrook 4. Lowry 5. Simmons. Then, there’s a little bit of a gap, and the next 5 guys are so close as to be virtually indistinguishable. Dame, Kemba, Jrue, Kyrie, and Wall are all close enough that you can’t really pick out #6 from #10 with any degree of clarity.

[ReKon]

Glad PG was voted in the previous one as well as he was my vote. I am reading some hot takes in these threads that make me scratch my head. I would put PG over Draymond definitely for example. You do realise the guy has actually carried his team to the playoffs a year after a gruesome injury and gave the Raps a good battle right? That wasn't too long ago. Draymond is an elite role player who gets the benefit of the doubt by playing with 3 elite scorers/shooters.

I nominate Kemba

That same year you’re talking about where George went 3-4 in the playoffs against Toronto, Draymond played 6 playoff games without Curry and went 4-2. He averaged 19/11/8 over those games. That was before Durant was even around. When Dray’s had to play without a superstar lead scorer, he’s done very well. He was honestly pretty similar to George even in the box score that year without even getting into his unique defensive impact.

You are talking about a series I am talking about a guy carrying a team for a season. And with the Pacers being the 7th seed while the Warriors were the #1 seed which is a completely different dynamic. Raptors also went on to reach the ECF that year.

Also when you say that they were similar box score wise are you talking about that particular 6 game span or are you talking about the whole season? The first I can believe the second one I find extremely hard to believe, if anything Draymond's value doesn't come from box score stats I think we can all agree with that. And it's not like PG is a defensive scrub, he s been in an NBA All-Defensive squad 3 times.

My argument here is that PG has proven he can lead a team to success in the past (see Pacers vs LeBron Heat) and he had a pretty great season in OKC so I don't expect much to change from a production standpoint. With Draymond we don't have that kind of proof and 6 games is not a big enough sample size to justify that.

[iggymcfrack]

Glad PG was voted in the previous one as well as he was my vote. I am reading some hot takes in these threads that make me scratch my head. I would put PG over Draymond definitely for example. You do realise the guy has actually carried his team to the playoffs a year after a gruesome injury and gave the Raps a good battle right? That wasn't too long ago. Draymond is an elite role player who gets the benefit of the doubt by playing with 3 elite scorers/shooters.

I nominate Kemba

That same year you’re talking about where George went 3-4 in the playoffs against Toronto, Draymond played 6 playoff games without Curry and went 4-2. He averaged 19/11/8 over those games. That was before Durant was even around. When Dray’s had to play without a superstar lead scorer, he’s done very well. He was honestly pretty similar to George even in the box score that year without even getting into his unique defensive impact.

You are talking about a series I am talking about a guy carrying a team for a season. And with the Pacers being the 7th seed while the Warriors were the #1 seed which is a completely different dynamic. Raptors also went on to reach the ECF that year.

Also when you say that they were similar box score wise are you talking about that particular 6 game span or are you talking about the whole season? The first I can believe the second one I find extremely hard to believe, if anything Draymond's value doesn't come from box score stats I think we can all agree with that. And it's not like PG is a defensive scrub, he s been in an NBA All-Defensive squad 3 times.

My argument here is that PG has proven he can lead a team to success in the past (see Pacers vs LeBron Heat) and he had a pretty great season in OKC so I don't expect much to change from a production standpoint. With Draymond we don't have that kind of proof and 6 games is not a big enough sample size to justify that.

I’m talking about the entire season. Draymond averaged 31.3 (pts+rebs+asts) with a 19.0 PER and George averaged 34.2 (pts+rebs+asts) with a 20.9 PER.

[DCRYsing89]

I have researched the whole Lowry over Wall thing and found there is actually a arguement there.
Same with klay over wall, just matters what you value.

But in no Way is KAT better than Wall at the current moment,
Wall went up against Avery Bradley (an elite defender) and helped fight the Cs to 7 games a couple years ago.
Towns went up against Capela (an elite defender) and got shut down, cancelled out in most games.
You combine this with that Towns Defence is serverly lacking, and it should be a no brainer Wall over Towns.
Maybe in a couple years this will be different, last year Towns did seem better though because Wall was injured, in the playoffs Wall outperformed towns.
But atm Wall is far superior to Towns.

And what is all this Simmons love about, yes a great player, but not above Wall.
Wall is easily the better scorer (Cs shut down simmons, again what happened with Wall vs Cs?)
Both great playmakers, though Wall is more proven, though if simmons progresses this may change this year or next (I understand the numerical difference is because of the team style of play).
Defensively Simmons is great, but Wall is like All-1st team defence.
Wall is more turnover prone but this is again because of team style of play, and simmons would be similar in the same circumstances.
You cant make an arguement for Simmons over Wall next year, any year after that is up for grabs, but not this coming year, Wall is proven as a star and simmons is still only new on the scene.

If yall disagree I am happy for a debate.

Add Drummond or Hayward
Drummonds a beast
And Hayward will be back pretty solid.

Wall is most certainly not a 1st team all-defense caliber defender and I really don’t think he’s a better defender than Simmons. He was probably close at his absolute athletic peak, but he’s older now and probably just doesn’t feel he has the stamina to give 100% on both ends any more. Here’s his DRPM by year:

2013/14: -0.44 (20th out of 44 point guards)
2014/15: +1.73 (4th out of 57, voted second team all-defense)
2015/16: +0.12 (13th out of 65)
2016/17: -1.26 (49th out of 78)
2017/18: -0.13 (35th out of 99)

And Simmons in his one season:
2017/18: +1.45 (8th out of 99)

Given the learning curve with defense entering the league, I think it’s fair to assume that Simmons will probably be even better on defense next year and should be playing it at a legitimately elite level while Wall will probably not improve at age 28.

Meanwhile Simmons is already a more efficient scorer than Wall as he put a higher TS% last year than Wall ever has for a single season in his career. He’s also a much, much better rebounder although that’s probably factored into why his defense rates so highly. So what’s left? Well Wall scored 3 more PPG and had 1.5 more assists. OK? I wouldn’t expect that to last through next season.

So then you’re solely dinging Simmons for his playoff performances. Considering that he was a rookie and he actually played really well against Miami before being shut down by the best coach of all-time, I’m willing to give him a little bit of a pass. It’s tough adjusting to a new strategy on the fly without a really smart in-game coach to help you through. If he faces the same defense from Stevens this year, I’d expect him to be much better prepared.

The way I see it, the Top 5 point guards are pretty clear. I’d go: 1. Curry 2. Paul 3. Westbrook 4. Lowry 5. Simmons. Then, there’s a little bit of a gap, and the next 5 guys are so close as to be virtually indistinguishable. Dame, Kemba, Jrue, Kyrie, and Wall are all close enough that you can’t really pick out #6 from #10 with any degree of clarity.

What I am trying to say is 2016/17 Wall, is currently better than what we have as simmons atm.
A guy who averaged 25-10 off memory, which is superior to simmons stats, but the assists difference is just that Wall is in a role where he is more ball dominant and as such more opertunity for assists.
For me top PGs is like
Curry - Paul
Dame - Westbrook - Wall - Kyrie
Kemba - Lowry - Jrue - Simmons
Simmons is great, and is poised to take Wall soon, but it hasnt happened yet.

People forget Wall was carrying injuries last season,
Injured Wall is worse then all the guys stated.
But what Wall did in the playoffs proves he still is as good as he was the season before.

And Simmons got better percentages cause he takes his shots closer to the rim more often (being aftpriad of jumpers),
Walls shooting tendency aint a positive, but it isnt negative considering players cant sag off him in games to clog the paint.

I aint putting a bet on that Wall will still be better than Simmons in the 2019/20 season,
But I feel next season when the wizards win almost as many games as the 76ers next season,
It will be because Wall is a top notch player and Simmons is still young.

[rcc8884]

Add Gordan Hayward

[SlowPaced]

Only Norman Powell’s complete collapse prevented DeRozan from being 3rd team All Raptors Guard - he was definitely worse than Lowry, Wright, and VanVleet - and he was voted 2nd team All NBA.

This is slight hyperbole. I see that Lucas Noguiera played 24 minutes and was 1/1/1 with 3 turnovers and 6 fouls. The Raptors had a NetRtg of -48.9 with him on the floor. So he’d be the worst. Derozan’s legitimately been sub-starter caliber over his 5 postseasons though. I still can’t believe the Spurs gave up Kawhi for the chance to pay him $90 million.

Imagine being so arrogant that you think NBA players, coaches and analysts who rank DeRozan highly are all out of their minds and you are the only one who gets that he's complete garbage and should actually sit on the bench.

I'm actually quite low on DeRozan myself but good god. Do you guys actually watch basketball or just look at the numbers? You've managed to turn an advanced stat-advocate into those advance stats-hating types, to that say I congratulations.

[juanc]

I think it's Klay and it's not that close. Replace Klay with Lowry or replace him with Towns and what do you think the result would be? I think that Klay choose the same path as Ginobili and he will be underrated just because he has chosen the team...

[PizzaSteve]

I think it's Klay and it's not that close. Replace Klay with Lowry or replace him with Towns and what do you think the result would be? I think that Klay choose the same path as Ginobili and he will be underrated just because he has chosen the team...

Exactly. How many SGs are more impactful? He is arguably the top 2 way SG in the league, plus defender, while defending top scoring threats of the best team , Harden, etc., sucessfully. No one pulls more spacing other than curry, on pace to be #1 or 2 3pt shooter of all time, which is the modern NBA.

Its a team game, people forget. Simmons has potential, but still has significant weaknesses he hasnt proven he will deal with. Klay has steadily improved all aspects of his game and is a proven winner. Not only is he already a top 10 type guy, but he is already making history as a winner. Its no accident the warriors got good when he joined the team. However, standing in the corner or running in circles to create space for team mates to score, making the right non flashy pass and playing fundamental defense that pushes the play to a lower quality shot vs flashy blocks, flying dunks or steals is not as exciting...i get it. Give me winning play every time. I like the Manu comparison.

[slothrop8]

Only Norman Powell’s complete collapse prevented DeRozan from being 3rd team All Raptors Guard - he was definitely worse than Lowry, Wright, and VanVleet - and he was voted 2nd team All NBA.

[
This is slight hyperbole. I see that Lucas Noguiera played 24 minutes and was 1/1/1 with 3 turnovers and 6 fouls. The Raptors had a NetRtg of -48.9 with him on the floor. So he’d be the worst. Derozan’s legitimately been sub-starter caliber over his 5 postseasons though. I still can’t believe the Spurs gave up Kawhi for the chance to pay him $90 million.

Imagine being so arrogant that you think NBA players, coaches and analysts who rank DeRozan highly are out of their minds and you are the only one who gets that he's complete garbage and should actually sit on the bench.

I'm actually quite low on DeRozan myself but good god.

It's not arrogance - it's simply understanding which metrics better reflect a player's actual impact and evaluating them through then lens rather than using the tools of the past that have largely been mathematically proven not to be accurate reflections of value. I and people like me are far from the only ones holding that opinion - lots of analysts feel the same.

A quick baseball example - whether you follow the sport or not, you'll get it - for decades it was conventional wisdom that a team should bat a fast guy as their lead off hitter - whether that guy was much good at getting on base or not was often irrelevant - and if he did get on, you'd often use your #2 hitter to bunt him to 2nd base. Teams did it for decades - a huge majority of players, coaches, analysts, and fans would have sworn to you up and down that this was good baseball strategy for years and years, and many, many baseball games opened in exactly this fashion for years and years. Eventually the analytics guys proved mathematically that this was not only not good strategy, it was terrible strategy- pretty close to straight up baseball idiocy. It took a while - but nobody does this anymore ever at the major league level - because it's absolutely wrong. It was accepted conventional wisdom for a long time, but it was straight up incorrect.

This history of sports is littered with countless examples of the ways even professionals think about the game being later shown to be obviously wrong. This analysis of DeRozan is really no different. The tools by which we used to evaluate players like him in the past suggested that what he does is "good" for your team and that opinion is shared by many fans, coaches, analysts etc. But we now have a ton of analytical evidence that the conventional wisdom is wrong - his teams are always, always better without him, often way better - his impact on your overall defense is straight up catastrophic, he's generally an overall detriment. How big a detriment remains open for debate - but things like him making All-NBA teams or making the US Olympic team will pretty obviously be viewed as laughable in the pretty near future - even though it was highly respected people inside the game conveying him that status in the present.

[Homerclease]

Only Norman Powell’s complete collapse prevented DeRozan from being 3rd team All Raptors Guard - he was definitely worse than Lowry, Wright, and VanVleet - and he was voted 2nd team All NBA.

This is slight hyperbole. I see that Lucas Noguiera played 24 minutes and was 1/1/1 with 3 turnovers and 6 fouls. The Raptors had a NetRtg of -48.9 with him on the floor. So he’d be the worst. Derozan’s legitimately been sub-starter caliber over his 5 postseasons though. I still can’t believe the Spurs gave up Kawhi for the chance to pay him $90 million.

Imagine being so arrogant that you think NBA players, coaches and analysts who rank DeRozan highly are all out of their minds and you are the only one who gets that he's complete garbage and should actually sit on the bench.

I'm actually quite low on DeRozan myself but good god. Do you guys actually watch basketball or just look at the numbers? You've managed to turn an advanced stat-advocate into those advance stats-hating types, to that say I congratulations.

It’s like when people use PFF scores to back up their arguments in a football discussion. They have no idea what the numbers actually mean or if they are reliable or not but it sounds good so run with it!

[eminence]

Voted Lowry again, should add in Kemba.

[kinste]

What hast KAT proven yet?! Had bad Playoffs, Plays no defense. Give me Klay all day. Elite two way Player, greatest catch and shoot Player in the league and abolute elite defense.

[THE J0KER]

Young players are underrated on this poll. I think people here not projected enough next season improvement of Embiid and Jokic which should be late TOP10 here, not #11 and #12. And Towns should be late TOP15, not barely TOP20.

I guess, Simmons, Mitchell, Tatum, and Devin Booker will be damaged too.

[mademan]

I think it's Klay and it's not that close. Replace Klay with Lowry or replace him with Towns and what do you think the result would be? I think that Klay choose the same path as Ginobili and he will be underrated just because he has chosen the team...

I think both the Raps and Minny collapse and Warriors still win the title

[GeorgeMarcus]

I think it's Klay and it's not that close. Replace Klay with Lowry or replace him with Towns and what do you think the result would be? I think that Klay choose the same path as Ginobili and he will be underrated just because he has chosen the team...

Lowry is a better player than Klay, but Klay obviously makes more sense on the Warriors given their roster construct. So you're right and wrong.

[Capn'O]

Simmons or Towns, imo. I think we'll see Simmons quite a bit higher on this poll next year.

[Jaqua92]

Just for fun, I averaged players RPM the last 3 years to build a list. Didn’t include last year for Kawhi, but other than that just did straight averages on the years not accounting for games played. Here’s the list:

1. Chris Paul 7.83
2. LeBron James 7.72
3. Kawhi Leonard 7.58
4. Stephen Curry 7.52
5. Draymond Green 6.72
6. Russell Westbrook 6.43
7. Nikola Jokic 6.24
8. Kyle Lowry 5.96
9. Jimmy Butler 5.67
10. James Harden 5.30
11. Kevin Durant 5.28

Interesting how the top guys are almost without exception all great playmakers. Kawhi Leonard’s the only top guy that doesn’t fit that mold and all he does is combine some of the best scoring ability in the entire league with some of he best defense.

To me that shows more of a systemic bias in RPM rather than the opposite.

Hey! Someone who understands statistics unlike 95% of the posters who live by them!

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

[Effigy]

Wow, we have 4 people within 4 votes of each other for first place. That's a nice competition.

Add Booker.

[clyde21]

What hast KAT proven yet?! Had bad Playoffs, Plays no defense. Give me Klay all day. Elite two way Player, greatest catch and shoot Player in the league and abolute elite defense.

This is exactly why I say Thompson is one of the most overrated players in the league. That's just insane. There isn't any dimension in which Klay's a better player than Towns.