RealGM Top 25 Player Poll-#21 2018-19

[ITYSL]

Given the board's penchant for leaning on all-in-one advanced stats thus far in these polls, I'm surprised that Klay and Simmons are near the top. Out of the ones on the list, neither Thompson nor Simmons are top 4 in RAPM, PIPM or RPM. If you look at just guards, Jrue and Kemba are higher than both of them in all three metrics.

[DubsPhilosophy]

Ben Simmons looks to me like he could already be a top 15 player in the league by the end of next year.

Klay Thompson has hit is peak, we know we are getting from him.

Anyways, I feel Ben Simmons is better already. Klay loses a ton of efficiency after the first dribble, doubt he could lead a team as the go to guy.

See, I went with Klay because he's the best in the league at doing what he does. And this is where some subjectivity comes in. Is Simmons better at being a playmaker than Klay is at being a scorer? What Klay provides on both sides of the court is just as valuable as what Simmons does.

Klay’s defense is a little overrated. It’s definitely not as good as Simmons’. Klay’s DRPM last year was +0.13 and that was a career high. Simmons’ was +1.45.

This is an example of how a stat, even a good stat, doesn't sufficiently paint the whole picture.

Simmons is a very smart and intuitive defender that gets in the lanes on defense and has very good court awareness. He gets steals and he blocks shots.

Thompson locks in on one man, the opponent's best guard, and chases him all over the court, generally making it very difficult to receive the ball or get a shot off.

They're as different as defenders as they are offensively and I'm not seeing how it's clear that Simmons does his job better than Klay, just that Simmons role presents very differently in the stats than for Klay.

[picc]

Given the board's penchant for leaning on all-in-one advanced stats thus far in these polls, I'm surprised that Klay and Simmons are near the top. Out of the ones on the list, neither Thompson nor Simmons are top 4 in RAPM, PIPM or RPM. If you look at just guards, Jrue and Kemba are higher than both of them in all three metrics.

Neither of Klay or Simmons should be in the running right now. People are just going for big/fancy names.

[Prez]

Klay having over triple the votes of Horford is kind of ridiculous honestly. Horford was a better, more valuable player than Klay last year and this is backed up pretty clearly by the numbers.

[GeorgeMarcus]

Too early for Klay.

[a8bil]

Klay having over triple the votes of Horford is kind of ridiculous honestly. Horford was a better, more valuable player than Klay last year and this is backed up pretty clearly by the numbers.

I would just suggest that you look at how many games were lost to injury for GSW last year, and how Klay played and GSW did in those games. I think you'll be surprised. Klay doesn't get enough respect. Great on ball defense, deadly shooter, best off ball movement in the league creating space for every other GSW player.

[iggymcfrack]

Given the board's penchant for leaning on all-in-one advanced stats thus far in these polls, I'm surprised that Klay and Simmons are near the top. Out of the ones on the list, neither Thompson nor Simmons are top 4 in RAPM, PIPM or RPM. If you look at just guards, Jrue and Kemba are higher than both of them in all three metrics.

SImmons is 21 years old, and he may be behind all those guys for last year only, but they also all had seasons well above their recent averages for impact stats. Use a 2 or 3-year average and all of a sudden, Simmons already has a better RPM than 32 year old Al Horford or 28 year old Jrue Holiday. Kemba’s still ahead, but barely.

[ITYSL]

Given the board's penchant for leaning on all-in-one advanced stats thus far in these polls, I'm surprised that Klay and Simmons are near the top. Out of the ones on the list, neither Thompson nor Simmons are top 4 in RAPM, PIPM or RPM. If you look at just guards, Jrue and Kemba are higher than both of them in all three metrics.

SImmons is 21 years old, and he may be behind all those guys for last year only, but they also all had seasons well above their recent averages for impact stats. Use a 2 or 3-year average and all of a sudden, Simmons already has a better RPM than 32 year old Al Horford or 28 year old Jrue Holiday. Kemba’s still ahead, but barely.

As I'm sure you know, comparing advanced stats of one season of one player to a multi-year average of another, no matter the reason why (ie. one was a rookie), is a faulty comparison. Compare like for like whenever possible, and it is possible here, for one season, and Jrue and Kemba were clearly better than Simmons across RAPM, PIPM and RPM.

I'm honestly surprised that you're arguing for Simmons here given how you've been citing RPM almost exclusively in these polls, and Simmons didnt have a great RPM (6th of 10 in this poll and 35th overall)

Best argument for Simmons is potential. He didnt have great scoring volume or effieiency. He had great volume in assists, but turned it over quite a bit to the point where his AST/TOV ratio was not top of the field. Another part of the argument for him, IMO, is his leadership and performance at the end of the season without Embiid (weakness of opponents notwithstanding) and at the start of the Heat series. I think he has all-NBA potential obviously, but it's too early for him to be voted in here imo

[iggymcfrack]

Like if you’re voting for Al Horford because he had the best RPM last year, you should really switch your vote to Simmons. Here’s the comparison:

Al Horford (playing for the GOAT coach who inflates all his players impact stats the last 2 seasons)
Age 27: +1.50 (96th)
Age 28: +2.14 (69th)
Age 29: +2.97 (27th)
Age 30: +1.82 (60th)
Age 31: +3.89 (19th)

Ben Simmons (in his very first season in the NBA)
Age 21: +2.89 (35th)

[ITYSL]

Like if you’re voting for Al Horford because he had the best RPM last year, you should really switch your vote to Simmons. Here’s the comparison:

Al Horford (playing for the GOAT coach who inflates all his players impact stats the last 2 seasons)
Age 27: +1.50 (96th)
Age 28: +2.14 (69th)
Age 29: +2.97 (27th)
Age 30: +1.82 (60th)
Age 31: +3.89 (19th)

Ben Simmons (in his very first season in the NBA)
Age 21: +2.89 (35th)

Brad Stevens is the GOAT coach? I absolutely love the guy but cmon man

[iggymcfrack]

Given the board's penchant for leaning on all-in-one advanced stats thus far in these polls, I'm surprised that Klay and Simmons are near the top. Out of the ones on the list, neither Thompson nor Simmons are top 4 in RAPM, PIPM or RPM. If you look at just guards, Jrue and Kemba are higher than both of them in all three metrics.

SImmons is 21 years old, and he may be behind all those guys for last year only, but they also all had seasons well above their recent averages for impact stats. Use a 2 or 3-year average and all of a sudden, Simmons already has a better RPM than 32 year old Al Horford or 28 year old Jrue Holiday. Kemba’s still ahead, but barely.

As I'm sure you know, comparing advanced stats of one season of one player to a multi-year average of another, no matter the reason why (ie. one was a rookie), is a faulty comparison. Compare like for like whenever possible, and it is possible here, for one season, and Jrue and Kemba were clearly better than Simmons across RAPM, PIPM and RPM.

That’s silly. We should use all the information available to us. If one player has a fluky good season at age 31, we shouldn’t ignore all the previous data and project forward just based on that one year because the other player is a rookie. The whole point of this project is to project forward how well we expect the players to play in 2018/19. Based on the information available to us, I’d expect Horford to have an RPM around 2.0 next year and probably more like 1.3 if he were outside the Celtics system. I’d project Simmons to have an RPM around 3.8 due to natural improvement from Year 1 to Year 2. Therefore I expect Simmons to be the better player. Your direct comparison is basically just ranking how the players played last year. That’s significantly less interesting IMO, but yes if we were looking at last year, I’d agree Horford was better. I had him borderline Top 10. The idea that we shouldn’t project rookies to improve from year one to year two in a project ranking players for 2018/19 though makes no sense to me whatsoever.

[iggymcfrack]

Like if you’re voting for Al Horford because he had the best RPM last year, you should really switch your vote to Simmons. Here’s the comparison:

Al Horford (playing for the GOAT coach who inflates all his players impact stats the last 2 seasons)
Age 27: +1.50 (96th)
Age 28: +2.14 (69th)
Age 29: +2.97 (27th)
Age 30: +1.82 (60th)
Age 31: +3.89 (19th)

Ben Simmons (in his very first season in the NBA)
Age 21: +2.89 (35th)

Brad Stevens is the GOAT coach? I absolutely love the guy but cmon man

OK, if GOAT implies accomplished, then sure give it to Pop. Stevens is definitely the best coach of all-time though. Like if it was chess, he’d have the best ELO ranking of all-time by like 50 points.

[Bornstellar]

Like if you’re voting for Al Horford because he had the best RPM last year, you should really switch your vote to Simmons. Here’s the comparison:

Al Horford (playing for the GOAT coach who inflates all his players impact stats the last 2 seasons)
Age 27: +1.50 (96th)
Age 28: +2.14 (69th)
Age 29: +2.97 (27th)
Age 30: +1.82 (60th)
Age 31: +3.89 (19th)

Ben Simmons (in his very first season in the NBA)
Age 21: +2.89 (35th)

Brad Stevens is the GOAT coach? I absolutely love the guy but cmon man

OK, if GOAT implies accomplished, then sure give it to Pop. Stevens is definitely the best coach of all-time though. Like if it was chess, he’d have the best ELO ranking of all-time by like 50 points.

You're joking right? Guy has been to the conference finals once and lost with HCA...calm down with that GOAT talk

[ITYSL]

SImmons is 21 years old, and he may be behind all those guys for last year only, but they also all had seasons well above their recent averages for impact stats. Use a 2 or 3-year average and all of a sudden, Simmons already has a better RPM than 32 year old Al Horford or 28 year old Jrue Holiday. Kemba’s still ahead, but barely.

As I'm sure you know, comparing advanced stats of one season of one player to a multi-year average of another, no matter the reason why (ie. one was a rookie), is a faulty comparison. Compare like for like whenever possible, and it is possible here, for one season, and Jrue and Kemba were clearly better than Simmons across RAPM, PIPM and RPM.

That’s silly. We should use all the information available to us. If one player has a fluky good season at age 31, we shouldn’t ignore all the previous data and project forward just based on that one year because the other player is a rookie. The whole point of this project is to project forward how well we expect the players to play in 2018/19. Based on the information available to us, I’d expect Horford to have an RPM around 2.0 next year and probably more like 1.3 if he were outside the Celtics system. I’d project Simmons to have an RPM around 3.8 due to natural improvement from Year 1 to Year 2. Therefore I expect Simmons to be the better player. Your direct comparison is basically just ranking how the players played last year. That’s significantly less interesting IMO, but yes if we were looking at last year, I’d agree Horford was better. I had him borderline Top 10. The idea that we shouldn’t project rookies to improve from year one to year two in a project ranking players for 2018/19 though makes no sense to me whatsoever.

No, what you're doing is silly. If you're not comparing apples to apples, then you're misusing the stat. Comparing one season of RPM to another player's average over the last five years is ridiculous.

If what you say is true, then you should also say that Oladipo had a fluky good season at age 25. Simmons' first-year RPM of 2.89 is 56% higher than Oladipo's five-year average RPM of 1.86. Yet you voted Oladipo at #13. You're being wildly inconsistent with your cherrypicking of advanced stats.

[ITYSL]

Like if you’re voting for Al Horford because he had the best RPM last year, you should really switch your vote to Simmons. Here’s the comparison:

Al Horford (playing for the GOAT coach who inflates all his players impact stats the last 2 seasons)
Age 27: +1.50 (96th)
Age 28: +2.14 (69th)
Age 29: +2.97 (27th)
Age 30: +1.82 (60th)
Age 31: +3.89 (19th)

Ben Simmons (in his very first season in the NBA)
Age 21: +2.89 (35th)

Brad Stevens is the GOAT coach? I absolutely love the guy but cmon man

OK, if GOAT implies accomplished, then sure give it to Pop. Stevens is definitely the best coach of all-time though. Like if it was chess, he’d have the best ELO ranking of all-time by like 50 points.

ROFL. OK.

[iggymcfrack]

As I'm sure you know, comparing advanced stats of one season of one player to a multi-year average of another, no matter the reason why (ie. one was a rookie), is a faulty comparison. Compare like for like whenever possible, and it is possible here, for one season, and Jrue and Kemba were clearly better than Simmons across RAPM, PIPM and RPM.

That’s silly. We should use all the information available to us. If one player has a fluky good season at age 31, we shouldn’t ignore all the previous data and project forward just based on that one year because the other player is a rookie. The whole point of this project is to project forward how well we expect the players to play in 2018/19. Based on the information available to us, I’d expect Horford to have an RPM around 2.0 next year and probably more like 1.3 if he were outside the Celtics system. I’d project Simmons to have an RPM around 3.8 due to natural improvement from Year 1 to Year 2. Therefore I expect Simmons to be the better player. Your direct comparison is basically just ranking how the players played last year. That’s significantly less interesting IMO, but yes if we were looking at last year, I’d agree Horford was better. I had him borderline Top 10. The idea that we shouldn’t project rookies to improve from year one to year two in a project ranking players for 2018/19 though makes no sense to me whatsoever.

No, what you're doing is silly. If you're not comparing apples to apples, then you're misusing the stat. Comparing one season of RPM to another player's average over the last five years is ridiculous.

If what you say is true, then you should also say that Oladipo had a fluky good season at age 25. Simmons' first-year RPM of 2.89 is 56% higher than Oladipo's five-year average RPM of 1.86. Yet you voted Oladipo at #13. You're being wildly inconsistent with your cherrypicking of advanced stats.

Oladipo was 25 years old last year. It would be ludicrous to use a 5-year average for him. When players get a lot better from age 21 to age 25, it’s natural to assume that it’s mainly due to developing their skills and improving at basketball. Especially when they’re taking on a new role for the first time during their breakout season after they do this during the offseason:



Horford was 31. Players don’t develop and get better at age 31. It just doesn’t happen. So yes, for someone at that age I’d be much more inclined to rate his previous years more equally when I’m projecting going forward.

[ITYSL]

Oladipo was 25 years old last year. It would be ludicrous to use a 5-year average for him. When players get a lot better from age 21 to age 25, it’s natural to assume that it’s mainly due to developing their skills and improving at basketball. Especially when they’re taking on a new role for the first time during their breakout season after they do this during the offseason:



Horford was 31. Players don’t develop and get better at age 31. It just doesn’t happen. So yes, for someone at that age I’d be much more inclined to rate his previous years more equally when I’m projecting going forward.

Unsurprised you would declare that "different" because it doesn't shoehorn into what you want to argue. What's ludicrous is averaging any player's five-year average RPM and measuring that up against a rookie's RPM.

You're relying almost solely on RPM in these polls, and then using it selectively to fit into your preconceived biases when you feel it necessary. That alongside your proclamation that Brad Stevens is the GOAT coach just makes you look kind of silly.

[iggymcfrack]

Oladipo was 25 years old last year. It would be ludicrous to use a 5-year average for him. When players get a lot better from age 21 to age 25, it’s natural to assume that it’s mainly due to developing their skills and improving at basketball. Especially when they’re taking on a new role for the first time during their breakout season after they do this during the offseason:



Horford was 31. Players don’t develop and get better at age 31. It just doesn’t happen. So yes, for someone at that age I’d be much more inclined to rate his previous years more equally when I’m projecting going forward.

Unsurprised you would declare that "different" because it doesn't shoehorn into what you want to argue. What's ludicrous is averaging any player's five-year average RPM and measuring that up against a rookie's RPM.

You're relying almost solely on RPM in these polls, and then using it selectively to fit into your preconceived biases when you feel it necessary. That alongside your proclamation that Brad Stevens is the GOAT coach just makes you look kind of silly.

And what preconceived biases would those be exactly? I don't even really have a favorite team. I was betting on the Celtics all through the playoffs last year. I certainly don't have anything against them. I was even arguing that Horford was the Celtics' best player before Kyrie went down last year. Sorry I can't hold up to the standard of Mr. Objective with 4 Boston teams next to his name who's vehemently arguing for a Celtic over a Sixer.

[PizzaSteve]

In today's NBA, this is Thompson. He's a top 5 shooter all time.

And plus defender, and plus passer/decision maker. 90% ish ft.

Weaknesses...needs to rebound better given size, though he is breaking downcourt to be 3 threat, finishing at rim is much improved but coukd be better, underrated at creating his own shot off dribble, but not elite.
voted Klay. Simmons can prove himself effective this year.

He is also an iron man who has barely missed any games to injury. Also super plus locker room guy...zero drama, unselfish, so team wins. Anyone who watched him at WSU knows he can be 'the guy', he just choses to help the team win. So half of the best shooting backcourt IN HISTORY, that was the offensive engine of the winningest team in history, 3 x NBA chamos over 4 yeaes, isnt even a top 20 player?

So the warriors arent a talent stacked team then, and we can stop complaining, LOL. While I admit a fan bias, I think all but 1 or 2 NBA coaches would gladly swap their SG for KT.

[iggymcfrack]

Last year I’d say:
Scoring: Klay >>> Simmons
Rebounding: Simmons >>> Klay
Playmaking: Simmons >>>>> Klay
Defense: Simmons > Klay

For next year:
Scoring: Klay > Simmons
Rebounding: Simmons >>> Klay
Playmaking: Simmons >>>>>> Klay
Defense: Simmons >> Klay