WCSF | (1) Golden State Warriors vs (4) Houston Rockets, Part Two (Series tied 2-2)

[laika]

There actually is one simple tactic the Rockets could try that could swing the series- Stop playing Capela.
Capela is terrible against the Warriors.
They don't have much of a bench, but nearly everyone has done better than Capela.

[michaelm]

Just admit it, Golden State is better than Houston. This trying to make refereeing the problem (when we know that Harden/Paul are the two biggest floppers in the game) is just deluding oneself to that.

Golden State is all time talented team I lost count how many times I've said that. It requires Houston to play their A game while GS has one or two shooters going cold for Houston to win a game, and with KD playing like the best player in the world right now, things get 2x tougher. Look at the WCF last year, Houston got blown out on most of their losses, and they won very narrowly. Sane Rockets fans all see the reality in front of us, an nobody is going to act like it's a shame if we lose to the Warriors - all we want to see is a competitive series. I used the word "rig" out of extreme frustration, if I can, I take it back.

But the thing is when game 1 went ultra competitive as a momentum swing series opener, when Houston did all they could to bring the game that close, seemingly lost it on some unfavored calls down the stretch and eventually lost the game by 1 possession, us fans have the right to question it. We are not saying those calls cost us the game, we are saying those calls were negative contributions. We are not saying referee is the problem, we are saying it is one of the problems. Game 2 was really clean from both sides, so even if it was still a loss, it was a lot more acceptable one.

There is also no need to bring floppers talk into this discussion. A guy can flop 100 times before and still should shoot 2 free throws if it's a legit foul. If we start to bring this logic of "if he cheated before then he should not get calls the rest of his career", where is the end? Where do we draw that line? I always thought it's better for everyone just stick to the game. If it's a foul, call it. If it's a leg sticking out or arm push off, call it offensive foul. You call a couple on Harden and it stops his push off automatically. Even as a Rockets fan I would love to see that because it makes the game a lot cleaner (and if you like, it makes our subsequent bitching on legit fouls more acceptable). However, we as posters have no need to elevate the discussion to an ethical level. Crying wolf, he deserves this treatment, he deserves this and that, it's not for us to say who deserves what. Look at Kerr, dude got punched by MJ, called Yao "Chinaman" on TV, did his fair share of ref complaining and snarky comments, a lousy GM who walked into a winning situation, there are quite a few better coaches out there who haven't won or will never win as much as Kerr had. Do we say Kerr not deserve his success or he needs to coach the Knicks to even out some of his luck? No, because it is not for us to comment who deserves what. We stay on the game itself, that's what we should do.

Don't disagree with much of this.

I really do have a thing about 3FTs from 3 point attempts, and long have had, though. It actively disappoints me when GSW get three points that way rather than from making the 3 point shot. Maybe they should consider giving only 2 FTs, although that would obviously have implications the other way. Whether or not Houston are actually consistently employing such a strategy, Harden being a great shooter anyway of course, 3 point foul drawing as a major strategy would warp the game far more than the possibly excessive value of 3 point shots per se concerning which many already complain. As I and others have said, and some in the media have said since the controversy erupted, 3 FTs from an offensive possession, which is something like 2.7 or 2.8 points per possession for the likes of Harden or Curry, greatly eclipses any other scoring method for efficiency. As I have previously said I believe 3 point shooting fouls should be reserved for egregious fouls, and sure Harden may have been denied a couple in game 1, although it is my belief not with any deliberate intent to injure him on Thompson's part. I don't have a problem with Harden drawing fouls when driving, this is time honored in the NBA and he is of course unusually/perhaps historically difficult to stop when driving without fouling him.

[yoyoboy]

Golden State has virtually 5 players this postseason with a 5.0 BPM or higher:

- Bogut: 6.6 BPM
- Iguodala: 6.4 BPM
- Curry: 6.2 BPM
- Durant: 5.5 BPM
- Green: 4.9 BPM

That's nuts. Especially the fact that Iggy is 35 years old and playing 28 mpg averaging 11 ppg, 4 app, and 4 rpg while turning the ball over less than 1 time a game, shooting at 63% TS, and still playing absolutely elite perimeter defense. Even at this age, he's still the ideal glue guy for a championship team. That's why I always roll my eyes when Warriors fans insist (and it happened last year, too) that Iggy is DONE, because without fail come playoff time he's regularly guarding the other team's best perimeter player like Harden or LeBron, finishing oops, making good decisions with the ball, and hitting the 3 at a better clip than people expect.

Good example of why you can't trust box score accumulator stats. Bogut has been terrible in the playoffs.

It mostly correlates though. Definitely helps to look at both.

Green: 4.9 BPM, +26.5 On-Off
Durant: 5.5 BPM, +24.9 On-Off
Igoudala: 6.4 BPM, +22.4 On-Off
Curry: 6.2 BPM, +12.6 On-Off
Bogut: 6.6 BPM, -7.2 On-Off
Klay: -0.6 BPM, -21.8 On-Off

I think plus/minus stats understate Klay's performance. He hasn't been great, but 17 ppg on 56% TS with average defense certainly isn't bad. Bogut's impact definitely gets overstated by the box score. 13 points/17 rebounds/5 assists per 36 with 65% TS will do that, but obviously he's not playable against certain lineups. Durant has been the best player on GS these playoffs, with Curry just behind, Draymond just behind him, and Iggy right after.

[MagicBagley18]

Houston’s best path to the finals and a real shot at a championship is KD leaving the warriors for the Knicks

[Percentsign]

Warriors are winning this series, and will walk through either Portland or Denver. Maybe Milwaukee or Toronto has a 10% shot at beating GSW, if the stars are aligned.

I know that a 2-0 deficit isn't insurmountable, and Warriors blew 3-1 in 2016. But the Durant-led Warriors have never shown that sort of vulnerability.

Houston needed one of the first 2 games to have a slight chance. They needed to get up 2-0 to have a moderate chance (and even then, Warriors would still be the favorites to come back from 0-2 to win).

Sorry, but this Warriors team is too stacked. At this point, the Warriors have a monopoly on the entire NBA, like Nelson Rockefeller's Standard Oil.

[ken6199]

I really do have a thing about 3FTs from 3 point attempts, and long have had, though. When following things on the box score when I cant't watch while at work, it actively disappoints me when GSW get three points that way rather than from making the 3 point shot. Maybe they should consider giving only 2 FTs, although that would obviously have implications the other way. Whether or not Houston are actually consistently employing such a strategy, Harden being a great shooter anyway of course, 3 point foul drawing as a major strategy would warp the game far more than the possibly excessive value of 3 point shots per se concerning which many already complain. As I and others have said, and some in the media have said since the controversy erupted, 3 FTs from an offensive possession, which is something like 2.7 or 2.8 points per possession for the likes of Harden or Curry, greatly eclipses any other scoring method in efficiency. As I have previously said I believe 3 point shooting fouls should be reserved for egregious fouls, and sure Harden may have been denied a couple in game 1, although it is my belief not with any deliberate intent to injure him on Thompson's part. I don't have a problem with Harden drawing fouls when driving, this is time honored in the NBA and he is of course unusually/perhaps historically difficult to stop when driving without fouling.

I think it's a math driven approach. For example for a 38% 3pt shooter, if he can find a way to get a 38% chance of getting fouled on a 3, then things are already equal. He might need a 40% chance on getting fouled to cope with his 85% free throw conversion rate, so that's roughly 2 out of 5 shot attempts. For someone with Harden's craftiness, I think he thinks it's doable. There are also extra benefits to it, such as getting the opponent into foul trouble, entering the bonus earlier, and you still have like 15% chance of hitting a hailmary and make it a 4pt play, if you spend 50% of your attention on drawing fouls and the rest 50% on shooting the ball. It is frustrating the game is converging that way, but think about it, with the 3ball getting more and more popular along with the data driven approaches erupting, players getting craftier and craftier, if it's not Harden today, someone else will do it eventually.

This is just a tough situation for everyone, beyond the level of us simply saying "nah xxx isn't playing the game the right way, he shouldn't do this". It's the league's job to follow up with rule changes as the game evolves. You see last 2 years Harden started to master his foul drawing on getting up with arm swiping, the league responded, they took it away with a clear definition of shooting motion. Then Harden responded again, by working on his "cylinder" fouls. I actually quite enjoy this type of back and forth, because it actually takes talent and dedication of hard work to keep responding to the rule changes. Harden comes back after every summer with some new moves that makes the league office collectively scratch their head. Whether you like it or not, the game is ever changing and evolving.

Back on the 3pt foul shooting I maintain my position - call it tight, and call it consistent. If you take it away in the post season, make sure you do the same in the regular season. Arm pushoff, call it. Leg kicking, call it. Players work on the gray area? You call it with zero tolerance.

[HoopsterJones]

Warriors are winning this series and most likely the Championship again.

[Cartuse]

As a non-GSW fan that's a bit tired of the same old I think the best one can do is wait it out and try to enjoy watching the warriors toying with opponents. We're surely gonna romanticize it in 10 years anyway.

If we can't enjoy the competition (because there isn't much of it) we might as well enjoy the absolute domination...

[Spud2nique]

How come Curry, Klay or any of the warriors every suffer significant injuries? Kind of a mystery. Oh wait, Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Tim Lincecum... ok maybe not a mystery...

[michaelm]

I really do have a thing about 3FTs from 3 point attempts, and long have had, though. When following things on the box score when I cant't watch while at work, it actively disappoints me when GSW get three points that way rather than from making the 3 point shot. Maybe they should consider giving only 2 FTs, although that would obviously have implications the other way. Whether or not Houston are actually consistently employing such a strategy, Harden being a great shooter anyway of course, 3 point foul drawing as a major strategy would warp the game far more than the possibly excessive value of 3 point shots per se concerning which many already complain. As I and others have said, and some in the media have said since the controversy erupted, 3 FTs from an offensive possession, which is something like 2.7 or 2.8 points per possession for the likes of Harden or Curry, greatly eclipses any other scoring method in efficiency. As I have previously said I believe 3 point shooting fouls should be reserved for egregious fouls, and sure Harden may have been denied a couple in game 1, although it is my belief not with any deliberate intent to injure him on Thompson's part. I don't have a problem with Harden drawing fouls when driving, this is time honored in the NBA and he is of course unusually/perhaps historically difficult to stop when driving without fouling.

I think it's a math driven approach. For example for a 38% 3pt shooter, if he can find a way to get a 38% chance of getting fouled on a 3, then things are already equal. He might need a 40% chance on getting fouled to cope with his 85% free throw conversion rate, so that's roughly 2 out of 5 shot attempts. For someone with Harden's craftiness, I think he thinks it's doable. There are also extra benefits to it, such as getting the opponent into foul trouble, entering the bonus earlier, and you still have like 15% chance of hitting a hailmary and make it a 4pt play, if you spend 50% of your attention on drawing fouls and the rest 50% on shooting the ball. It is frustrating the game is converging that way, but think about it, with the 3ball getting more and more popular along with the data driven approaches erupting, players getting craftier and craftier, if it's not Harden today, someone else will do it eventually.

This is just a tough situation for everyone, beyond the level of us simply saying "nah xxx isn't playing the game the right way, he shouldn't do this". It's the league's job to follow up with rule changes as the game evolves. You see last 2 years Harden started to master his foul drawing on getting up with arm swiping, the league responded, they took it away with a clear definition of shooting motion. Then Harden responded again, by working on his "cylinder" fouls. I actually quite enjoy this type of back and forth, because it actually takes talent and dedication of hard work to keep responding to the rule changes. Harden comes back after every summer with some new moves that makes the league office collectively scratch their head. Whether you like it or not, the game is ever changing and evolving.

Back on the 3pt foul shooting I maintain my position - call it tight, and call it consistent. If you take it away in the post season, make sure you do the same in the regular season. Arm pushoff, call it. Leg kicking, call it. Players work on the gray area? You call it with zero tolerance.

Of course it is a maths driven approach, Morey's main thing, hence his frustration.

I am fine with tighter calls in the play-offs, and agree with the argument from a poster earlier in the thread that the problem is no-one would last an 82 game regular season. To someone from a foreign sporting culture as I am an 82 game regular season following which more than 50% of the 30 teams make the play-offs verges on being absurd.

[hongdayuan]

There actually is one simple tactic the Rockets could try that could swing the series- Stop playing Capela.
Capela is terrible against the Warriors.
They don't have much of a bench, but nearly everyone has done better than Capela.

Their rebounding is already very very bad. credits to the warriors defense, they have done a great job taking away the lob. harden's iso tendencies allows the warriors to blitz him and quickly recover to still have the intended defender on him. multiple occasions I see them trying to switch curry on harden and they would just blitz harden. harden needs to get rid of the ball quick when he's blitzed. ironic because they paid CP3 supermax to serve the sole purpose of additional elite playmaker.

[michaelm]

How come Curry, Klay or any of the warriors every suffer significant injuries? Kind of a mystery. Oh wait, Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Tim Lincecum... ok maybe not a mystery...

Curry has never had a significant injury?. Again, perhaps he pretended to to have ankle problems and signed that 12 million a year contract as a subterfuge because of prescience about later titles. Bogut when he was a frontline starting center didn't make it through the play-offs because of injuries 3 out of 4 seasons. Iguodala was injured in the 2016 finals and obviously was sufficiently injured to miss 4 games in last year's ECF series. Draymond Green was written off by many on this forum as being well past his peak due to the beating he has taken over the years as recently as 4 - 6 weeks ago.

[cpower]

How come Curry, Klay or any of the warriors every suffer significant injuries? Kind of a mystery. Oh wait, Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Tim Lincecum... ok maybe not a mystery...

Curry had a pretty severe MCL injury in 2016 PS. And two ankle injuries last year and this year. These are pretty significant injuries compared to what Lebron/Westbrook/Harden have had.

[G35]

To win the Rockets need Harden, Gordon, and Capela to all have great games with Paul giving his typical 15-20pts with good defense and playmaking in order to win. They also need to allow only two of KD, Curry, Green, and Iguodala to have typical big games

It's a hell of a tough thing to do, and now they need it to happen 4 of the next 5 games. Anything is possible, especially as they can certainly win two in a row at home here, but the odds are really not in their favor.

Harden playing well beneath his regular season stats when things get tough in the playoffs is nothing new, and as he goes so do the Rockets. I think he'll have one ridiculous game in the next three to help HOU win, but he'll revert to his 9-28fg self otherwise.

What's funny is that the Warriors didn't play that great. Their shooting was only average:

Durant 9-22, 29 pts
Klay 8-18, 21 pts
Curry 6-16, 20 pts

That is 23-63 which is 37% shooting. As far as 3pt shooting it was no better:

Durant 3-6
Klay 3-9
Curry 3-13

Total 9-28, 32% 3pt shooting

These are the games the Rockets need to be winning. This is not "all time great" performances...the Warriors are not lapping the competition. The competition needs to play better.

Harden needs to be the best player in the series, and if not the best, at least in the top 3 for the Rockets to have a chance. Harden has not been playing at his RS level and seems to shrink when things get difficult.

Look Harden has great box score numbers 32/5/5 and his fan's will do the same thing people say about Lebron, "Only Harden could get criticized for putting up 32/5/5". Well when you have the ball that much that's the minimum you should be producing. Harden has a USG% of 43.0 in the first two games.

It's also not like he isn't getting help, everyone in the starting lineup scored double figures, Austin Rivers had 14 pts off the bench. Nobody on the Warriors bench had more than six points. The Warriors are basically playing without a big man and no I do not consider Kevon Looney a big. Andrew Bogut played 3 minutes.

The Warriors are giving the Rockets a chance, the Rockets are not taking advantage of the opportunity......

[SinceGatlingWasARookie]

Warriors offensive rebounding was more about Rockets not doing their jobs than it was about Warriors being very good. Rockets shot well enough to win game 2 if they had just taken care of the defensive rebounds a little better.

in theory the Warriors could have raised their game to find some other way to win if the Rockets did not allow them offensive rebounds but the Warriors have had problems raising their game on command.

[CS707]

It's crazy to me that people think this is a done deal. The Warriors have been ultra focused the first two games because of all the hype and hijinks but it's in their DNA to lose that focus just as quickly once they feel the point has been made. One lackadaisical game by the Warriors, one hot shooting night by Houston, and it's a completely new series. Even up 2-0 I can easily see this going 7.

[California Gold]

While I think the series isn't fully over, I don't expect the Rockets to win 4/5 against Golden State. The best they can do is push them to 7. The only thing I think that can really change this series is if a major injury were to happen on the Warriors side. Outside of that I think any other scenarios seem very unlikely due to how great Golden State really is.

Game 3 is a must-win for the Rockets obviously.

[Wallace_Wallace]

The Rockets are getting out hustled on the glass, especially from Warrior misses. They’re already the best shooting team of all time, no need for Jerebko, Green, Looney and Bogut to get multiple tip ins or hit it back out to the shooters. Last year it was an advantage for the Rockets, I’m not sure if Capela is still feeling sick.

[whatisacenter]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2834083-report-draymond-greens-rockets-vs-warriors-game-2-technical-foul-rescinded

League rescinded Draymond’s tech. I have been really impressed with the Warriors D through two games. Warriors need to come out strong in game three and rob the Rockets of their soul.

[KingDavid]

I think the rockets take this to seven games. There's no way in hell they're getting swept. They've got to win some games. I'm expecting Harden to start rolling in calls one of these games. You gamblers keep an eye on who's reffing before heading to the bookies.