RealGM Top 25 Player Poll-#22 2019-20

[LoveMyRaps]

Simmons, Dipo, Lowry, Siakam, and CP3 are all better than Donovan Mitchell.

[mademan]

It’s funny how Simmons came second in the vote for 21st best player (ahead of Mitchell). Now in the vote for 22nd best player Simmons is again coming second (this time behind Mitchell). Comical, the logic of this thread. Let me guess, he will come third when voting for 23rd best player and then not get voted in top 25 best players

It is because the Philly faithful has been voting for him since #15 while most other people arent as high on him. It isn't surprising really.

Its surprising people are putting Mitchell ahead of him, for sure. Simmons was significantly better last year. More than significantly, imo. And Simmons is younger. Not saying Mitchell wont make a jump and that Simmons wont stagnate, but its just a weird bet to make

[KqWIN]

It’s funny how Simmons came second in the vote for 21st best player (ahead of Mitchell). Now in the vote for 22nd best player Simmons is again coming second (this time behind Mitchell). Comical, the logic of this thread. Let me guess, he will come third when voting for 23rd best player and then not get voted in top 25 best players

It is because the Philly faithful has been voting for him since #15 while most other people arent as high on him. It isn't surprising really.

Its surprising people are putting Mitchell ahead of him, for sure. Simmons was significantly better last year. More than significantly, imo. And Simmons is younger. Not saying Mitchell wont make a jump and that Simmons wont stagnate, but its just a weird bet to make

I don't think it's wrong to say that Simmons was the best player last season, I struggle to see how he is "more than significantly" better than Mitchell or Tatum. I think all three were all in the same ballpark last year with Mitchell and Tatum with a more clear path to a breakout season.

[GQ Hot Dog]

How is Mitchell better than Conley, Booker, McCollum, Russell or even Lavine?

He's got a eFG% under 50%, ORPM 1.69(on par with Eric Gordon), PER of 17.2, TS% .537. What am I missing? Are people just projecting him to have a breakout year? Because there are plenty of high volume, low efficiency chuckers that don't get this kind of love.

[mademan]

It is because the Philly faithful has been voting for him since #15 while most other people arent as high on him. It isn't surprising really.

Its surprising people are putting Mitchell ahead of him, for sure. Simmons was significantly better last year. More than significantly, imo. And Simmons is younger. Not saying Mitchell wont make a jump and that Simmons wont stagnate, but its just a weird bet to make

I don't think it's wrong to say that Simmons was the best player last season, I struggle to see how he is "more than significantly" better than Mitchell or Tatum. I think all three were all in the same ballpark last year with Mitchell and Tatum with a more clear path to a breakout season.

Simmons 17/9/8 on 58 TS%. 4.1 BPM
Mitchell 24/4/4 on 54 TS%, 0.6 BPM

Besides scoring more at league average efficiency (unimpressive), he literally does nothing better than Simmons. There's also a sizeable gap on defense, mostly because Simmons is just bigger and more versatile. Mitchell also completely fell apart in the playoffs while Simmons only kinda played worse.

I stand by it. Simmons was significantly better. Sure, Mitchell can have a jump, Simmons can stagnate and it can change next year. But like i said before, it's just a weird bet to make when Simmons is the younger player.

[mademan]

How is Mitchell better than Conley, Booker, McCollum, Russell or even Lavine?

He's got a eFG% under 50%, ORPM 1.69(on par with Eric Gordon), PER of 17.2, TS% .537. What am I missing? Are people just projecting him to have a breakout year? Because there are plenty of high volume, low efficiency chuckers that don't get this kind of love.

Seems like it. Pretty weird to, when he didnt have this great jump year 1 to year 2. It could happen, but i'd like to see some serious improvement, even over a small sample, before i anoint someone.

[KqWIN]

How is Mitchell better than Conley, Booker, McCollum, Russell or even Lavine?

He's got a eFG% under 50%, ORPM 1.69(on par with Eric Gordon), PER of 17.2, TS% .537. What am I missing? Are people just projecting him to have a breakout year? Because there are plenty of high volume, low efficiency chuckers that don't get this kind of love.

I think you sort of answered your own question. Many people are expecting him to have a breakout season for multiple reasons, the primary being the reports that are coming out of Team USA. His RPM is also higher than every single one of those players outside of Conley. Not saying that is everything, but if you're going to use his ORPM against him I think it's fair to point out that his RPM is actually an argument in favor of Mitchell.

Mitchell's team success with him on the floor is the one argument for Mitchell that is hardly ever brought up. I think profile him as this "low efficiency chucker" and conflate the associated connotations. Those connotations don't include having strong adjusted +/- metrics and being a solid defender.

[KqWIN]

Its surprising people are putting Mitchell ahead of him, for sure. Simmons was significantly better last year. More than significantly, imo. And Simmons is younger. Not saying Mitchell wont make a jump and that Simmons wont stagnate, but its just a weird bet to make

I don't think it's wrong to say that Simmons was the best player last season, I struggle to see how he is "more than significantly" better than Mitchell or Tatum. I think all three were all in the same ballpark last year with Mitchell and Tatum with a more clear path to a breakout season.

Simmons 17/9/8 on 58 TS%. 4.1 BPM
Mitchell 24/4/4 on 54 TS%, 0.6 BPM

Besides scoring more at league average efficiency (unimpressive), he literally does nothing better than Simmons. There's also a sizeable gap on defense, mostly because Simmons is just bigger and more versatile. Mitchell also completely fell apart in the playoffs while Simmons only kinda played worse.

I stand by it. Simmons was significantly better. Sure, Mitchell can have a jump, Simmons can stagnate and it can change next year. But like i said before, it's just a weird bet to make when Simmons is the younger player.

Mitchell has a higher RPM, RAPM, and PIPM. So lets take a look at the +/- cocktail. The luck adjusted approach favors Mitchell. The pure adjusted +/- is in favor of Mitchell. Combining the box score and the adjusted +/- favors Mitchell. The one approach that does favor Simmons is the box score, specifically on defense.

People pick and choose what statistics they want...that's normal. But understand that if you're making the statistical argument for Simmons, it rests on a box score evaluation on defense which disagrees with the lineup data, luck adjusted and unadjusted.

These are different players in completely different roles. I know Tatum is not in this poll, but I think he should be looped in as well. Not only are they different, but each player presents their own tradeoffs. Simmons is a terrific playmaker, but it's unclear how much that outweighs the spacing issues that he causes. Mitchell is inefficient, but he was also the only shot creator on his team. Tatum was a complimentary play whose game and mentality matches a leading scorer. Mitchell and Tatum have much different team compositions this year which theoretically play into their favor...but we'll have to wait and see on the results.

What I'm getting at is that it's difficult to judge and compare these players. It's not black and white, and there hasn't been any convincing evidence to suggest that it is.

[SlowPaced]

Vote: Siakam
Nominate: Vucevic

[mademan]

I don't think it's wrong to say that Simmons was the best player last season, I struggle to see how he is "more than significantly" better than Mitchell or Tatum. I think all three were all in the same ballpark last year with Mitchell and Tatum with a more clear path to a breakout season.

Simmons 17/9/8 on 58 TS%. 4.1 BPM
Mitchell 24/4/4 on 54 TS%, 0.6 BPM

Besides scoring more at league average efficiency (unimpressive), he literally does nothing better than Simmons. There's also a sizeable gap on defense, mostly because Simmons is just bigger and more versatile. Mitchell also completely fell apart in the playoffs while Simmons only kinda played worse.

I stand by it. Simmons was significantly better. Sure, Mitchell can have a jump, Simmons can stagnate and it can change next year. But like i said before, it's just a weird bet to make when Simmons is the younger player.

Mitchell has a higher RPM, RAPM, and PIPM. So lets take a look at the +/- cocktail. The luck adjusted approach favors Mitchell. The pure adjusted +/- is in favor of Mitchell. Combining the box score and the adjusted +/- favors Mitchell. The one approach that does favor Simmons is the box score, specifically on defense.

People pick and choose what statistics they want...that's normal. But understand that if you're making the statistical argument for Simmons, it rests on a box score evaluation on defense which disagrees with the lineup data, luck adjusted and unadjusted.

These are different players in completely different roles. I know Tatum is not in this poll, but I think he should be looped in as well. Not only are they different, but each player presents their own tradeoffs. Simmons is a terrific playmaker, but it's unclear how much that outweighs the spacing issues that he causes. Mitchell is inefficient, but he was also the only shot creator on his team. Tatum was a complimentary play whose game and mentality matches a leading scorer. Mitchell and Tatum have much different team compositions this year which theoretically play into their favor...but we'll have to wait and see on the results.

What I'm getting at is that it's difficult to judge and compare these players. It's not black and white, and there hasn't been any convincing evidence to suggest that it is.

I hate single year impact stats. But if we're going that route, why isnt Siakam the clear cut choice over Mitchell.

Box score: Siakam
Impact stats: All siakam
Age: Siakam only 2 years older

In every way last year, Siakam was better, and, in some ways (impact stats), significantly so. The playoffs widened that gap as well. It seems that some people are making projections of a jump just based on a player they like, which is crazy. A guy like Siakam, even with his productiveness, is still much less refined in his game and has more to add than Mitchell or a Tatum (who i also believe has no business being picked here). Ditto to Simmons.

[KqWIN]

I hate single year impact stats. But if we're going that route, why isnt Siakam the clear cut choice over Mitchell.

Box score: Siakam
Impact stats: All siakam
Age: Siakam only 2 years older

In every way last year, Siakam was better, and, in some ways (impact stats), significantly so. The playoffs widened that gap as well. It seems that some people are making projections of a jump just based on a player they like, which is crazy. A guy like Siakam, even with his productiveness, is still much less refined in his game and has more to add than Mitchell or a Tatum (who i also believe has no business being picked here). Ditto to Simmons.

I went that route because you went that route by citing Ben's BPM.

My vote was Siakam. I think he's the best blend proven value and upside going into next season. But if you're going with the upside, breakout season play, Tatum or Mitchell are my picks.

I still don't understand how Ben Simmons was "more than significantly" better than those two. It's just not the case on paper and I haven't seen anything else convincing. I also thing Tatum's and Mitchell's respective games have more potential for growth. They essentially need to what they've been doing, or have done, better. There's so much room for development. They can reach the highest levels in this way.

I can't say the same for Ben because he is so restricted by his jumpshot. As I said earlier, it's at the point where I'll only believe it when I see it. He can't be one of the truly elite players without a jumper. He's already so good at what he does, I'm not sure how much better playing the same way.

[Catchall]

At this stage, I could see Mitchell, Simmons, Oladipo, Conley... it becomes pretty flat.

So I guess we're just going to keep assuming that Klay Thompson is out this year. I think he's a top 15-20 player in the league when he's healthy.

Also nominate Tobias Harris.

[KqWIN]

At this stage, I could see Mitchell, Simmons, Oladipo, Conley... it becomes pretty flat.

So I guess we're just going to keep assuming that Klay Thompson is out this year. I think he's a top 15-20 player in the league when he's healthy.

Also nominate Tobias Harris.

I've left all the injured players for ease...but I think Oladipo is a much candidate than Klay. Not only is he coming back earlier (I think), he's a better player than Klay. Not sure Klay would make my top 25 without injury if I'm being honest.

[Catchall]

I hate single year impact stats. But if we're going that route, why isnt Siakam the clear cut choice over Mitchell.

Box score: Siakam
Impact stats: All siakam
Age: Siakam only 2 years older

In every way last year, Siakam was better, and, in some ways (impact stats), significantly so. The playoffs widened that gap as well. It seems that some people are making projections of a jump just based on a player they like, which is crazy. A guy like Siakam, even with his productiveness, is still much less refined in his game and has more to add than Mitchell or a Tatum (who i also believe has no business being picked here). Ditto to Simmons.

I went that route because you went that route by citing Ben's BPM.

My vote was Siakam. I think he's the best blend proven value and upside going into next season. But if you're going with the upside, breakout season play, Tatum or Mitchell are my picks.

I still don't understand how Ben Simmons was "more than significantly" better than those two. It's just not the case on paper and I haven't seen anything else convincing. I also thing Tatum's and Mitchell's respective games have more potential for growth. They essentially need to what they've been doing, or have done, better. There's so much room for development. They can reach the highest levels in this way.

I can't say the same for Ben because he is so restricted by his jumpshot. As I said earlier, it's at the point where I'll only believe it when I see it. He can't be one of the truly elite players without a jumper. He's already so good at what he does, I'm not sure how much better playing the same way.

I don't know what to think about Ben Simmons. He's like the ultimate rebound-and-go player, almost as good as Lebron in that aspect. He just struggles in the half court, and his defender can sag way off.

[Catchall]

At this stage, I could see Mitchell, Simmons, Oladipo, Conley... it becomes pretty flat.

So I guess we're just going to keep assuming that Klay Thompson is out this year. I think he's a top 15-20 player in the league when he's healthy.

Also nominate Tobias Harris.

I've left all the injured players for ease...but I think Oladipo is a much candidate than Klay. Not only is he coming back earlier (I think), he's a better player than Klay. Not sure Klay would make my top 25 without injury if I'm being honest.

Klay might be the best 3/D wing in the league, imo. He can't do everything, but what he does is really impactful. The Warriors are going to miss him badly.

[zimpy27]

How is Mitchell better than Conley, Booker, McCollum, Russell or even Lavine?

He's got a eFG% under 50%, ORPM 1.69(on par with Eric Gordon), PER of 17.2, TS% .537. What am I missing? Are people just projecting him to have a breakout year? Because there are plenty of high volume, low efficiency chuckers that don't get this kind of love.

It's a mystery, he just had one of the worst playoff performances ever. PER of 6.8 and TS% of 0.423

[dorkestra]

Serious question - would the Jazz have been better last year with Lou Williams replacing Donovan Mitchell (I think obviously yes). But what about this coming year?

[THE J0KER]

Its surprising people are putting Mitchell ahead of him, for sure. Simmons was significantly better last year. More than significantly, imo. And Simmons is younger. Not saying Mitchell wont make a jump and that Simmons wont stagnate, but its just a weird bet to make

I don't think it's wrong to say that Simmons was the best player last season, I struggle to see how he is "more than significantly" better than Mitchell or Tatum. I think all three were all in the same ballpark last year with Mitchell and Tatum with a more clear path to a breakout season.

Simmons 17/9/8 on 58 TS%. 4.1 BPM
Mitchell 24/4/4 on 54 TS%, 0.6 BPM

Besides scoring more at league average efficiency (unimpressive), he literally does nothing better than Simmons. There's also a sizeable gap on defense, mostly because Simmons is just bigger and more versatile. Mitchell also completely fell apart in the playoffs while Simmons only kinda played worse.

I stand by it. Simmons was significantly better. Sure, Mitchell can have a jump, Simmons can stagnate and it can change next year. But like i said before, it's just a weird bet to make when Simmons is the younger player.

You (and many others here) use whole 2018-19 season stats, but if you for 2019-20 projections use only their 2019 stats (2nd half of last season, about 45 games), which is IMO more correct for such young sophomores which improved almost on monthly basis, you can see why Donovan Mitchell case against Simmons in the upcoming season is much more legit than you presented:

2019 ONLY (January-April):
Simmons 18/9/8 on 57%TS% net: +2.6
Mitchell 27/5/5 on 56%TS% net: +9.7

[KqWIN]

I don't think it's wrong to say that Simmons was the best player last season, I struggle to see how he is "more than significantly" better than Mitchell or Tatum. I think all three were all in the same ballpark last year with Mitchell and Tatum with a more clear path to a breakout season.

Simmons 17/9/8 on 58 TS%. 4.1 BPM
Mitchell 24/4/4 on 54 TS%, 0.6 BPM

Besides scoring more at league average efficiency (unimpressive), he literally does nothing better than Simmons. There's also a sizeable gap on defense, mostly because Simmons is just bigger and more versatile. Mitchell also completely fell apart in the playoffs while Simmons only kinda played worse.

I stand by it. Simmons was significantly better. Sure, Mitchell can have a jump, Simmons can stagnate and it can change next year. But like i said before, it's just a weird bet to make when Simmons is the younger player.

You (and many others here) use whole 2018-19 season stats, but if you for 2019-20 projections use only their 2019 stats (2nd half of last season, about 45 games), which is IMO more correct for such young sophomores which improved almost on monthly basis, you can see why Donovan Mitchell case against Simmons in the upcoming season is much more legit than you presented:

2019 ONLY (January-April):
Simmons 18/9/8 on 57%TS% net: +2.6
Mitchell 27/5/5 on 56%TS% net: +9.7

I'm not sure how true this. Intuitively it makes sense, but I know that with teams using the second half of the season does not improve predicative ability. You're cutting the sample, making it more random, and the second half of the season can be very noisy due to injuries, load management, and tanking.

For Donovan in particular, the Jazz had a very easy schedule in the second half compared their murderous early schedule. He was also recovering from a significant foot injury during the beginning of the season that was setting him back....but starting him at that 27/5/5 point is probably a little to generous. If that's where he's at this season, I would consider that to be a tremendous development more so than a continuation of his 18-19 season.

It's a good indicator that he can improve nonetheless. I'd say the reports out of Team USA camp are what have me most optimistic about his breakout potential.

[lobosloboslobos]

rofl i look forward to seeing a top 25 poll with only 1 member of the championship team on it.