Giannis is 4 Games away from breaking WILT'S PER RECORD!

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Re: Giannis is 4 Games away from breaking WILT'S PER RECORD! 

Post#41 » by Raps in 4 » Sun Aug 9, 2020 5:40 am

Oscar9992 wrote:
Sofia wrote:Achieving the highest single season PER, an advanced stat that doesn’t really acknowledge defence, while possibly winning DPOY.

Incredible season, one of the greatest ever.


Yes, PER is Offensive stat that mostly value productivity & efficiency.


It doesn't even capture that particularly well.

Still an impressive feat by Giannis though.
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Re: Giannis is 4 Games away from breaking WILT'S PER RECORD! 

Post#42 » by leolozon » Sun Aug 9, 2020 12:14 pm

HeartBreakKid wrote:
leolozon wrote:
70sFan wrote:Or turnovers, or off/def rebounds.


Also, they didn't record blocks or steals for the average player too back in Wilt's day. Wilt PER number is a comp to the average player of his era, not a comp to Giannis.


Yes, but Wilt was far above the average player in blocks (and steals) - so if it was counted, his PER would be higher.


He was also far ahead in rebounds and points (And efficiency?). Would the difference in ratio be that great?

Honestly, I don’t even know how PER is calculated and if stats like blocks and steals count for less than points/rebounds/assists/efficiency. So my opinion on the matter really isn’t strong.
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Re: Giannis is 4 Games away from breaking WILT'S PER RECORD! 

Post#43 » by dautjazz » Sun Aug 9, 2020 4:36 pm

leolozon wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:
leolozon wrote:
Also, they didn't record blocks or steals for the average player too back in Wilt's day. Wilt PER number is a comp to the average player of his era, not a comp to Giannis.


Yes, but Wilt was far above the average player in blocks (and steals) - so if it was counted, his PER would be higher.


He was also far ahead in rebounds and points (And efficiency?). Would the difference in ratio be that great?

Honestly, I don’t even know how PER is calculated and if stats like blocks and steals count for less than points/rebounds/assists/efficiency. So my opinion on the matter really isn’t strong.


I would say his rebounding helped his PER more than scoring, but his block average was easily his most impressive stat, somewhere in the 8-9bpg for his career.

Here is a 112 games in which block data exists for Chamberlain, and he averaged 8.8bpg.
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-tTIVEWsAP14/VkFK-IE7GHI/AAAAAAAAHSo/n_u04_ScpoQ/s0-Ic42/Wilt%252520blocked%252520shots.jpg
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Re: Giannis is 4 Games away from breaking WILT'S PER RECORD! 

Post#44 » by DaPessimist » Sun Aug 9, 2020 5:24 pm

Amazing what can be accomplished when the league outlaws defense.
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Re: Giannis is 4 Games away from breaking WILT'S PER RECORD! 

Post#45 » by scrabbarista » Sun Aug 9, 2020 5:43 pm

His season is kinda overrated by some: he's going to play either the least or second least minutes by any MVP in history ('78 Bill Walton), and - despite what some delusional people will try to argue - fewer minutes is not more impressive.

With that out of the way, the number one PER is still great, and he's the obvious MVP. He should rightfully be unanimous. Still, as MVP seasons go, I'd say this one is at something like the 60th percentile, give or take ten points. It's not in the same tier as '16 Curry, '09 LeBron, '04 Garnett, or '00 Shaq. Against any other season in the last twenty, it's got an argument. It's clearly better than the last three MVP's. (That he should be unanimous is more due to the fact that no one else has an argument, rather than that his season has been that great.) I'm not trying to hate. Just trying to put things into perspective as I see it - with my MVP formula. As I said, the number one PER is pretty awesome, no matter how you slice it.
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Re: Giannis is 4 Games away from breaking WILT'S PER RECORD! 

Post#46 » by dhsilv2 » Sun Aug 9, 2020 6:06 pm

HeartBreakKid wrote:
leolozon wrote:
70sFan wrote:Or turnovers, or off/def rebounds.


Also, they didn't record blocks or steals for the average player too back in Wilt's day. Wilt PER number is a comp to the average player of his era, not a comp to Giannis.


Yes, but Wilt was far above the average player in blocks (and steals) - so if it was counted, his PER would be higher.


hard to prove but there's evidence to think he was turnover prone which may or may not counter balance this. who knows...
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Re: Giannis is 4 Games away from breaking WILT'S PER RECORD! 

Post#47 » by 70sFan » Sun Aug 9, 2020 6:16 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:
leolozon wrote:
Also, they didn't record blocks or steals for the average player too back in Wilt's day. Wilt PER number is a comp to the average player of his era, not a comp to Giannis.


Yes, but Wilt was far above the average player in blocks (and steals) - so if it was counted, his PER would be higher.


hard to prove but there's evidence to think he was turnover prone which may or may not counter balance this. who knows...

He'd have to average a lot of turnovers to counter huge blocks numbers. We don't have enough evidences to believe that. In fact, we don't have any evidences of prime Wilt being turnover prone.
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Re: Giannis is 4 Games away from breaking WILT'S PER RECORD! 

Post#48 » by TheBullsDynasty » Sun Aug 9, 2020 6:17 pm

scrabbarista wrote:His season is kinda overrated by some: he's going to play either the least or second least minutes by any MVP in history ('78 Bill Walton), and - despite what some delusional people will try to argue - fewer minutes is not more impressive.

With that out of the way, the number one PER is still great, and he's the obvious MVP. He should rightfully be unanimous. Still, as MVP seasons go, I'd say this one is at something like the 60th percentile, give or take ten points. It's not in the same tier as '16 Curry, '09 LeBron, '04 Garnett, or '00 Shaq. Against any other season in the last twenty, it's got an argument. It's clearly better than the last three MVP's. (That he should be unanimous is more due to the fact that no one else has an argument, rather than that his season has been that great.) I'm not trying to hate. Just trying to put things into perspective as I see it - with my MVP formula. As I said, the number one PER is pretty awesome, no matter how you slice it.


He will win MVP and DPOY and his team is the #1 seed. He is putting up 29.8 ppg 13.7 rpg 5.7 apg in 30.8 mpg. They very often blow teams out in the 3rd quarter so there's no point for him to play after that. When you're doing all of this, there's nothing wrong with playing less minutes. So yes, it is indeed more impressive, and no offense, but nobody cares about your MVP formula.

His season is definitely better than '16 Curry (defense please) and definitely better than '04 Garnett (just overall better in all aspects). '00 Shaq and '09 Lebron are valid and I wouldn't have a problem if somebody picked those.
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Re: Giannis is 4 Games away from breaking WILT'S PER RECORD! 

Post#49 » by dhsilv2 » Sun Aug 9, 2020 6:20 pm

70sFan wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:
Yes, but Wilt was far above the average player in blocks (and steals) - so if it was counted, his PER would be higher.


hard to prove but there's evidence to think he was turnover prone which may or may not counter balance this. who knows...

He'd have to average a lot of turnovers to counter huge blocks numbers. We don't have enough evidences to believe that. In fact, we don't have any evidences of prime Wilt being turnover prone.


The other thing is we don't know what kind of outlier wilt was as a shot blocker as blocked shots were likely far higher in that era.
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Re: Giannis is 4 Games away from breaking WILT'S PER RECORD! 

Post#50 » by junot111 » Sun Aug 9, 2020 6:21 pm

It'll be a shame if he doesn't win MVP.
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Re: Giannis is 4 Games away from breaking WILT'S PER RECORD! 

Post#51 » by TheSheriff » Sun Aug 9, 2020 6:25 pm

PER is a lousy stat, and it’s critics are usually basketball analytics types.

Still impressive.
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Re: Giannis is 4 Games away from breaking WILT'S PER RECORD! 

Post#52 » by Joao Saraiva » Sun Aug 9, 2020 6:51 pm

If he keeps it up in the playoffs and wins it all... there is a good chance we're witnessing the #1 peak in NBA history.
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Re: Giannis is 4 Games away from breaking WILT'S PER RECORD! 

Post#53 » by 70sFan » Sun Aug 9, 2020 7:07 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:
70sFan wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
hard to prove but there's evidence to think he was turnover prone which may or may not counter balance this. who knows...

He'd have to average a lot of turnovers to counter huge blocks numbers. We don't have enough evidences to believe that. In fact, we don't have any evidences of prime Wilt being turnover prone.


The other thing is we don't know what kind of outlier wilt was as a shot blocker as blocked shots were likely far higher in that era.

To be honest, I think it's overstated. Recently we have a thread about tracking stats (along with shooting data) from all 1960s games we have and to be honest, high block numbers weren't common in these games. It's true that combination of pace and lack of three point line likely caused a bigger block attempts on average, but I think that you overstate how huge of a difference it was.
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Re: Giannis is 4 Games away from breaking WILT'S PER RECORD! 

Post#54 » by HeartBreakKid » Mon Aug 10, 2020 8:24 am

dhsilv2 wrote:
70sFan wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
hard to prove but there's evidence to think he was turnover prone which may or may not counter balance this. who knows...

He'd have to average a lot of turnovers to counter huge blocks numbers. We don't have enough evidences to believe that. In fact, we don't have any evidences of prime Wilt being turnover prone.


The other thing is we don't know what kind of outlier wilt was as a shot blocker as blocked shots were likely far higher in that era.

If Chamberlain's BPG are as high as they say, we do know roughly how much of an outlier it is - pretty high. It's not like every center back then then was averaging 5 BPG or something which would be way below what people think Chamberlain averaged.
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Re: Giannis is 4 Games away from breaking WILT'S PER RECORD! 

Post#55 » by AussieBuck » Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:13 am

DaPessimist wrote:Amazing what can be accomplished when the league outlaws defense.

So I guess Giannis is by far the best defender of all time them given how few points per 100 his team gives up when he's on the floor in this outlawed defense era?
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Re: Giannis is 4 Games away from breaking WILT'S PER RECORD! 

Post#56 » by Oscar9992 » Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:57 am

AussieBuck wrote:
DaPessimist wrote:Amazing what can be accomplished when the league outlaws defense.

So I guess Giannis is by far the best defender of all time them given how few points per 100 his team gives up when he's on the floor in this outlawed defense era?


To be fair defence doesn't change much since PER is relative to the league average which is 15.00.
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Re: Giannis is 4 Games away from breaking WILT'S PER RECORD! 

Post#57 » by dhsilv2 » Mon Aug 10, 2020 11:12 am

70sFan wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
70sFan wrote:He'd have to average a lot of turnovers to counter huge blocks numbers. We don't have enough evidences to believe that. In fact, we don't have any evidences of prime Wilt being turnover prone.


The other thing is we don't know what kind of outlier wilt was as a shot blocker as blocked shots were likely far higher in that era.

To be honest, I think it's overstated. Recently we have a thread about tracking stats (along with shooting data) from all 1960s games we have and to be honest, high block numbers weren't common in these games. It's true that combination of pace and lack of three point line likely caused a bigger block attempts on average, but I think that you overstate how huge of a difference it was.


So you think BIll russell wasn't putting up huge blocks at the same time? Or Thurmond? If 3 of 8-15 teams had guys who would be all time top shot blockers...well PER would come down some.
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Re: Giannis is 4 Games away from breaking WILT'S PER RECORD! 

Post#58 » by dhsilv2 » Mon Aug 10, 2020 11:14 am

Oscar9992 wrote:
AussieBuck wrote:
DaPessimist wrote:Amazing what can be accomplished when the league outlaws defense.

So I guess Giannis is by far the best defender of all time them given how few points per 100 his team gives up when he's on the floor in this outlawed defense era?


To be fair defence doesn't change much since PER is relative to the league average which is 15.00.


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Re: Giannis is 4 Games away from breaking WILT'S PER RECORD! 

Post#59 » by dhsilv2 » Mon Aug 10, 2020 11:19 am

HeartBreakKid wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
70sFan wrote:He'd have to average a lot of turnovers to counter huge blocks numbers. We don't have enough evidences to believe that. In fact, we don't have any evidences of prime Wilt being turnover prone.


The other thing is we don't know what kind of outlier wilt was as a shot blocker as blocked shots were likely far higher in that era.

If Chamberlain's BPG are as high as they say, we do know roughly how much of an outlier it is - pretty high. It's not like every center back then then was averaging 5 BPG or something which would be way below what people think Chamberlain averaged.


I assume we think bill is over 5. Thurmond was a shot blocker too. Normally 3 dudes with crazy stats wouldn't mean much but in 1964 when thurmond entered we had 9 teams. So that's 33.3% of players and they were all 40 minute guys at their peak, i guess in 64 we could use Bellamy who was not as great as these guys but I bet he was 4+ himself without doing enough research.

I mean this was an era where the big men were reasonably close enough to today's big men in terms of athletics and the guards weren't at all and no 3 point line to justify shooting from further away, and teams were rushing shots which led to far more mistakes.
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Re: Giannis is 4 Games away from breaking WILT'S PER RECORD! 

Post#60 » by 70sFan » Mon Aug 10, 2020 12:43 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:
70sFan wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
The other thing is we don't know what kind of outlier wilt was as a shot blocker as blocked shots were likely far higher in that era.

To be honest, I think it's overstated. Recently we have a thread about tracking stats (along with shooting data) from all 1960s games we have and to be honest, high block numbers weren't common in these games. It's true that combination of pace and lack of three point line likely caused a bigger block attempts on average, but I think that you overstate how huge of a difference it was.


So you think BIll russell wasn't putting up huge blocks at the same time? Or Thurmond? If 3 of 8-15 teams had guys who would be all time top shot blockers...well PER would come down some.

Three players in 10 teams league is not enough to make the average that much higher. Besides, Bellamy almoat certainly didn't average over 4 bpg.

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