Raps will make the playoffs, and 2nd round, if healthy

[PhilBlackson]

We don't have a legit C or the bench depth for this spicy take.

Also keeping in mind that assuming Embiid stays healthy that it's not likely that the Raps pass the Sixers in the standings for the 6th seed so you're talking a 1st round match up with one of BKN or MIL (sorry I don't believe CHI will hold them off all season) and Raps don't have anyone to match KD's monster production clutch moments and we don't have the C to wall off Giannis. Which is why personally I hope we fall just short of the Playoffs to give our scouting department another chance to draft another young talent then hopefully our management can fill out the roster better next year and see if we can make some noise then.

[cupcakesnake]

I agree with people saying this is a hot take. This is nowhere near a finals team, not with Milwaukee and Brooklyn around.

But the Raptors schedule is softening up (soonish) and they're healthy for the first time. Nick Nurse, in the past 2 games, has finally been playing his best lineups. They start with a OG/Barnes/Siakam frontcourt (with Freddy and GHJ in the backcourt), and then they rotate in bigs and go jumbo (Khem Birch comes in for Barnes or GHJ and Boucher is the next off the bench). Against New York, they played their jumbo forward trio (the aforementioned OG/Barnes/Siakam) at the 2/3/4 with Fred and a center. Last night, they started the 4th quarter with that trio in the backcourt, and 2 extra bigs (Precious and Boucher)! The result is the Raps having size all over the floor, which compensates for them not having a real center (Birch, Boucher, Precious are all skinny dudes). They don't have a real back up point guard (sorry Banton and Malachi, not this year), so instead of playing a huge net negative like Banton, Flynn, or Svi (the 3 worst on-offs on the team), they're utilizing the playmaking of Barnes and Siakam. It's the right call IMO, and probably something they would have done sooner, had they been healthy.

The Raps aren't going to stay a bottom 10 defense. Not with Nurse and the frontline personnel they have. This teams should be able to choke out bad offenses. The Raps actually have a brutal schedule over their next 10 games (Bucks twice, Jazz, Suns, Heat) and then play a soft February. If they can stay healthy and and survive the next 10, the Raps could go on a month long tear.

[cupcakesnake]

We don't have a legit C or the bench depth for this spicy take.

Also keeping in mind that assuming Embiid stays healthy that it's not likely that the Raps pass the Sixers in the standings for the 6th seed so you're talking a 1st round match up with one of BKN or MIL (sorry I don't believe CHI will hold them off all season) and Raps don't have anyone to match KD's monster production clutch moments and we don't have the C to wall off Giannis. Which is why personally I hope we fall just short of the Playoffs to give our scouting department another chance to draft another young talent then hopefully our management can fill out the roster better next year and see if we can make some noise then.

I think the most interesting possibility for the Raps is grabbing the 7 seed, and it being Chicago. Demar Derozan vs. The Raptors in the first round? SIGN ME UP. The Raps have all the tools to give Derozan nightmares (big wings galore) so Derozan would really have to break through. Either way it would be a cool story.

The 6 seed is up for grabs in the East. Phili is most likely to be 5th or higher (mostly dependant on Embiid health vs. the Heats health). The Cavs are awesome and in 6th right now, but the Rubio injury makes them more vulnerable. Washington sucks, Charlotte cannot play defense. The Raptors, Celtics and Hawks are all going to have a winning stretch at some point and come for those play in spots.

[DelAbbot]

This is clearly a bait for drawing out Raptor homers to be made fun of on the GB

[Lunartic]

They might make the playoffs but they won't beat any of the top-4 teams

[Gasolina]

Which of the top 5 ranked teams could you see them beating in a 7 game series if both teams are healthy? I don't see them beating any of the current top 5 ranked teams

I would definitely favour them over Cleveland. I am extremely skeptical Cleveland’s big boy lineup will work in the playoffs.

[Johnny Bball]

I’m a Bulls fan, not a Raps fan. Just calling it like I see it.

The "we're getting slept on" made it seem like you were a Raptors fan.

Regardless, I think you're being far too aggressive with this take. The Raptors lack depth and don't have a real Center. If we can somehow fix those things at the trade deadline then we're in business. Otherwise, we're good with just proceeding with the rebuild and hope it figure those things out in time.

Don’t know that a real center is necessary this time around.

I also think Raps depth concerns partially overblown. 4-5 spot is fine, and because of the and Barnes and OG, so is the 3. Issue is the 1-2. And if Dragic changes his stance… then that may not be much of an issue, either.

Mind you, this is all dependent on health. Any one of the starters gets notable banged up, and the equation changes. But the champ Pistons were no different on that score.

Not that I agree with your premise overall, but its nice a fan of another team can see that the issue is not C and back-up PG. Some of us have said it all year while others keep arguing for an old school C, and they're just so wrong. It's not 2010.

I think they can at best finish between 7-9 if healthy and make a first round slightly scary for someone. But the healthy part has been damn tough the last 2 years, when the team is pretty actively trying to tank.

I don't see Dragic coming back though, so we are kind of screwed at back-up guard unless something changes.

[FreeThrowLine]

Which of the top 5 ranked teams could you see them beating in a 7 game series if both teams are healthy? I don't see them beating any of the current top 5 ranked teams

I would definitely favour them over Cleveland. I am extremely skeptical Cleveland’s big boy lineup will work in the playoffs.

Cavs are in 6th

[lobosloboslobos]

Pascal Siakam missed the first month of the season after a long layoff and shoulder surgery and he was rusty when he first got back. But in the past 10 games (7 wins) he has averaged 21/11/5/1/1 on 50% shooting. With Pascal back our starting 5 are currently averaging 93 points per game on the season and they are all excellent defenders. With all our guys healthy finally we are also able to make better use of what bench strength we do have, instead of playing our end of bench guys big minutes like we have had to do until recently. IF this team stays healthy it will surprise a lot of people in the post season.

[everdiso]

Raps used to have a great bench back in the day and everyone would point out that the bench doesn't matter much in the playoffs.

And they were right.

But it will be nice to see how the bench looks now that the Big 5 are finally all in and healthy for the first time and the bench guys aren't being forced into starters duty. Especially since Boucher has been coming on strong since an horrific start. Boucher and Birch should be two solid rotation pieces off the bench at least. They might need to find one more to complete the 8 man rotation. A ballhandler type. Or maybe Dragic just comes back.

[MGB8]

So since I think the concensus "locks" for the 2nd round are Brooklyn and Milwaukee are you saying that if Toronto gets matched up against your Bulls then Chicago is going home in round 1?

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If that matchup happens, and TO is fully healthy, I would not be optimistic. Raps size advantage is a problem for the Bulls. But I don’t think it would be a first round matchup.

If you don't think that'll be the matchup then you're putting alot of stock into a VERY specific matchup for them to make the 2nd round since they aren't knocking off Milwaukee or Brooklyn.

Not great odds to make such a boast

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That's a fair point... although I think they match up well with Brooklyn, also. But that would depend on whether Joe Harris comes back and the Kyrie situation, too.

Still, between OK, Siakam, and Barnes (along with Precious, Boucher, Birch), they have long, mobile 6'7 to 6'9 guys that can slow down Durant (mind you, no one is actually stopping him - just making him less efficient). And these guys can switch onto Harden - where the defense with FVV and Trent starts at a decent baseline, too.

But the Bucks are a different animal with Giannis (and better depth than last season) - assuming everyone (outside Brook) is healthy and Jrue or Middleton don't go into shooting slumps.

[cupcakesnake]

They might make the playoffs but they won't beat any of the top-4 teams

I think only the top 2 (Brooklyn and Milwaukee) deserve the benefit of the doubt.

- Chicago has been awesome, but this personnel has tons of questions to answer in the playoffs. Only Caruso has much positive experience. Derozan will have to prove he can keep this new look going in the playoffs. Vooch got humiliated by Marc Gasol, but was good against the Bucks the next year. Lonzo and Lavine have never been. I do think they have some clear holes that will be attacked in the playoffs (soft backline, small wings), but I'm not ruling out their success.
- Phili is a clear matchup problem for the Raptors, just because Embiid is too big.
- Miami is built to be a tough playoff team. My only concern is how healthy they'll be. They're old and creaky and Jimmy Butler (tail bone and now ankle) and Bam (thumb surgery) have been banged up pretty bad all season.

If the Raptors make the playoffs, they're still going to struggle to get consistent non-FVV offense. I'm not picking them outright against any of these teams. I just think after Milwaukee and Brooklyn, they have a puncher's chance. Nick Nurse is a mean man when it comes to playoff adjustments and will muck his way to a 7-game series when it should have been an easy sweep.

[ropjhk]

Probably a first round exit. The Raptors are better than their record suggests but they are not better than the Nets, Bulls, Bucks or Heat.

[cupcakesnake]

If that matchup happens, and TO is fully healthy, I would not be optimistic. Raps size advantage is a problem for the Bulls. But I don’t think it would be a first round matchup.

If you don't think that'll be the matchup then you're putting alot of stock into a VERY specific matchup for them to make the 2nd round since they aren't knocking off Milwaukee or Brooklyn.

Not great odds to make such a boast

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That's a fair point... although I think they match up well with Brooklyn, also. But that would depend on whether Joe Harris comes back and the Kyrie situation, too.

Still, between OK, Siakam, and Barnes (along with Precious, Boucher, Birch), they have long, mobile 6'7 to 6'9 guys that can slow down Durant (mind you, no one is actually stopping him - just making him less efficient). And these guys can switch onto Harden - where the defense with FVV and Trent starts at a decent baseline, too.

But the Bucks are a different animal with Giannis (and better depth than last season) - assuming everyone (outside Brook) is healthy and Jrue or Middleton don't go into shooting slumps.

I think the Raptors are vulnerable to players who can punish their smaller backline, so: Giannis and Embiid. The Raps have an embarrassing amount of elite frontline defenders (OG, Barnes, Siakam, Fred, GHJ, Precious), guys who can stop the ball and force turnovers on the perimeter. But on the backline, it's just Birch and Boucher, 2 real skinny dudes. Boucher can protect the rim, and Birch is great with backline rotations and handling pick & rolls. But they're small.

They probably have the defense to really bother Brooklyn, Chicago, Miami etc. But I think the bigger problem for the Raps will be scoring. Put some size on VanVleet and then make OG and Siakam beat you. It's just not an offense with a lot of resilient punch. I know they've played well on offense this year, but with so little rim pressure, it's hard to imagine them sustaining that against better defense in the playoffs.

[MGB8]

The "we're getting slept on" made it seem like you were a Raptors fan.

Regardless, I think you're being far too aggressive with this take. The Raptors lack depth and don't have a real Center. If we can somehow fix those things at the trade deadline then we're in business. Otherwise, we're good with just proceeding with the rebuild and hope it figure those things out in time.

Don’t know that a real center is necessary this time around.

I also think Raps depth concerns partially overblown. 4-5 spot is fine, and because of the and Barnes and OG, so is the 3. Issue is the 1-2. And if Dragic changes his stance… then that may not be much of an issue, either.

Mind you, this is all dependent on health. Any one of the starters gets notable banged up, and the equation changes. But the champ Pistons were no different on that score.

Not that I agree with your premise overall, but its nice a fan of another team can see that the issue is not C and back-up PG. Some of us have said it all year while others keep arguing for an old school C, and they're just so wrong. It's not 2010.

I think they can at best finish between 7-9 if healthy and make a first round slightly scary for someone. But the healthy part has been damn tough the last 2 years, when the team is pretty actively trying to tank.

I don't see Dragic coming back though, so we are kind of screwed at back-up guard unless something changes.

An old school center is nice for certain matchups (Embiid, B.Lopez if healthy and the Bucks choosing to go to him, etc.) and also for "change of pace" purposes. But even with Embiid - while a legit 7'0 type is helpful, a very strong 6'8 or 6'9 guy with elite length will get you 90% of the way there. Like, for example, Siakam or Birch or Precious, where OG is almost there, Barnes will be when he gets a bit stronger, Boucher might be strong enough, too. It's not like the bigger guy is actually stopping Embiid - it's just a matter of how much you can slow him down.

If the Raps really want to add size, once Biyombo is off his 10 day in Phoenix... but I don't see that as a real issue for that team.

The problem is that there is nothing that's "playoff playable" behind FVV and Trent. Svi and Flynn should be third stringer and never sniff a playoff rotation, and probably Blanton as well. That's survivable because OG and Barnes are mobile enough to play emergency minutes in the front court in "slow everything to a crawl and grime it out unless in transition" stretches - so if FVV and Trent can play the 34-38 mpg they are averaging, can get by. Especially if Watanabe is providing some extra shooting in those stretches.

It's just amazing that they have a guy who is exactly what they need (when healthy, at least) in Dragic, but he just doesn't want to play for them. Just weird. But maybe they can trade him for a more one dimensional bench shooter.

At the same time, getting one or two upgrades in terms of bench guard play isn't particularly hard. Mike James played decently for the Nets last season and is still available. I've seen names like Corey Joseph and Frank Jackson (both from Detroit) tossed around. Maybe bring back Terrence Davis. Terrence Ross is also out there as a higher end reserve wing. Maybe Brandon Knight makes good on his 10 days and shows he can still be a bench combo guard in the NBA. There's also Isaiah Thomas, Iman Shumpert, Collison, Mudiay, Yogi Ferrell, Tyler Johnson (post his current 10-day stretch), Frank Mason if looking at the free agent scarp heap, and for more pure wings Patrick McCaw, Terrence Ferguson, Glenn Robinson, Danuel House, Sindarious Thornwell, Axel Toupane...

Upgrading from Flynn and Svi shouldn't be all that hard...

[MindState]

Lets see how they do tonight vs the Bucks.

If they get blown out, they have zero chance in the playoffs, they need to prove they can beat the good teams, which they havent proven at all this year.

[dickfox]

I love the enthusiasm. I felt like this was a playoff team in the preseason but they just lack scoring power. Unless Siakam or OG or both can really step it up and put up 25-30 in the playoffs and closeout games by making tough shots, I just can't see them keeping up with a great team.

Raps are on the way up though!

[BenoUdrihFTL]

I don't think Toronto has a resilient enough scorer to win a playoff series, especially if we assume they'd be a lower seed going up against one of Milwaukee, Brooklyn, Chicago or Miami. Siakam was atrocious as the lead guy in their 2020 playoff run, and FVV has posted a 53.1 TS% in the postseason since he became a rotation player. Fred's efficiency has skyrocketed in 31 games this season, but I still don't trust that he won't revert back to the ~54% TS scorer he's been pretty much his entire career as a starter

Yup pretty much this. Who is going to be THAT guy to get you the bucket.

Raps don’t have that person. Or at least that person hasn’t proven it yet.

I should've included tho that I am high on what Toronto is doing up there there going forward. Some interesting pieces and I like the player profile they're targeting. It's just not happening this season

[Duffman100]

I don't think Toronto has a resilient enough scorer to win a playoff series, especially if we assume they'd be a lower seed going up against one of Milwaukee, Brooklyn, Chicago or Miami. Siakam was atrocious as the lead guy in their 2020 playoff run, and FVV has posted a 53.1 TS% in the postseason since he became a rotation player. Fred's efficiency has skyrocketed in 31 games this season, but I still don't trust that he won't revert back to the ~54% TS scorer he's been pretty much his entire career as a starter

Yup pretty much this. Who is going to be THAT guy to get you the bucket.

Raps don’t have that person. Or at least that person hasn’t proven it yet.

I should've included tho that I am high on what Toronto is doing up there there going forward. Some interesting pieces and I like the player profile they're targeting. It's just not happening this season

I like it too. I just hope they deviate a bit more their path and look for a high end scoring option and make some concessions on defense. FVV is looking great, Siakam is starting to round back into from, OG is developing a legit offensive game and Barnes is obviously awesome. But they need a guy with an outside shot and a great first step.

[ItsDanger]

Classic jinx thread. I prefer another late lottery piece and push in 22/23. But can't be mad if the OP is right. Its a win/win scenario.