Serious Question: Since 2010, how many top 3 picks became busts?

[timO]

You really need a definition of bust to answer this question as Wiggins demonstrates.

The best historical parallel I could find for Andrew Wiggins was Danny Ferry. Ferry wasn't as hyped as Wiggins of course, who had generational hype, but he was pegged as an elite prospect. He never came close to being All-NBA. So from the perspective of his draft hype he was a bust.

He also lasted 13 years and become an early stretch big and was a nice contributor to the early Pop-Duncan teams. From that perspective he was a decent player.

wiggins is another bust

he is a harrison barnes

[MotownMadness]

Last years draft is looking real good at the top at least

[_qubik]

Lonzo, Oladipo, Favors and Otto Porter JR arent busts for me.

Lonzo and Oladipo are high level starters when they are on the floor, guys that will maybe get some all stars, all defensive teams

Favors and Otto Porter arent what you expect from high picks, but they are serviceable players that wont be without a team or on verge of being out of the league, Otto Porter without the injuries could have been a way better 3&D wing

[Syd-TK3]

There's a difference between being a bust and just not being a star
Oladipo in no way is a bust

[JDR720]

I think it's important to consider injuries too.

MKG was at times our best player, despite his shooting issues. He just couldn't stay healthy. This would be the kind of bust Zion could be. Oden was. Etc.

To me, real busts are players who just aren't good. I don't think you can consider players drafted after them. If so, then everyone that was drafted before Jokic is a bust. That isn't a fair measurement.

Real Busts: (Players who just aren't any good)
Bennett
Okafor
Williams
Bagley

Injury Busts: (Players who were good, or could've been good, but can't stay healthy)
MKG
Fultz

Overdrafted: (Players who are solid, just drafted too high or were in weak draft classes)
Turner
Favors
Kanter
Otto
Jabari

Dipo and Ball definitely aren't busts. Dipo was probably the 3rd best player of that class and Ball is really good.

[Romeiro Celtic]

So Dragan Bender on the 2016 NBA Draft wasn't a Bust? Kris Dunn? Marquesse Chriss? Thon Maker?

[CobraCommander]

Otto a bust? He isn’t as good as his dad but he is pretty good.....if he was as big as his dad can you imagine how good he would be with his shooting

[3toheadmelo]

On the low Bagley showed signs of life on Detroit

[Lalouie]

thabeet missed out by the hair of his chinny chin chin

[God Squad]

I think it's important to consider injuries too.

MKG was at times our best player, despite his shooting issues. He just couldn't stay healthy. This would be the kind of bust Zion could be. Oden was. Etc.

To me, real busts are players who just aren't good. I don't think you can consider players drafted after them. If so, then everyone that was drafted before Jokic is a bust. That isn't a fair measurement.

Real Busts: (Players who just aren't any good)
Bennett
Okafor
Williams
Bagley

Injury Busts: (Players who were good, or could've been good, but can't stay healthy)
MKG
Fultz

Overdrafted: (Players who are solid, just drafted too high or were in weak draft classes)
Turner
Favors
Kanter
Otto
Jabari

Dipo and Ball definitely aren't busts. Dipo was probably the 3rd best player of that class and Ball is really good.

Nope lol. MKG is no Zion, Oden or anyone you want to mention. MKG should belong is the "real busts"

[hippesthippo]

Here's who comes to mind right away for me

2010
2 - Evan Turner
3 - Derrick Favors

2011
2 - Derrick Williams
3 - Enes Kanter

2012
2 - Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

2013
1 - Anthony Bennett
2 - Victor Oladipo
3 - Otto Porter Jr

2014
2 - Jabari Parker

2015
3 - Jahill Okafor

2016
NONE

2017
1 - Markelle Fultz (As a Magic fan I hope he turns it around)
2 - Lonzo Ball

2018
2 - Marvin Bagley

2019
1 - Zion Williamson (Potentially)

2020
2 - James Wiseman

On average, at least 1.36 busts a year.


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Turner, Favors, Kanter, Vic, OPJ and Ball have all had at least some run as above average starters. Vic had a star turn before getting injured.

I think Zion's career arc looks Oden-esque: injured => 30 games worth of All Star type play => injured => gone, but it's still far too early to make any career judgement on either him or Wiseman.

Overall, I think you and I have a rather large difference of opinion on the definition of bust. Unless you expect every top3 pick to become an All-NBA player which is pretty much impossible with only 15 spots available.

[gavran]

So Dragan Bender on the 2016 NBA Draft wasn't a Bust? Kris Dunn? Marquesse Chriss? Thon Maker?

Were any of them top 3 picks?

[hippesthippo]

I think it's important to consider injuries too.

MKG was at times our best player, despite his shooting issues. He just couldn't stay healthy. This would be the kind of bust Zion could be. Oden was. Etc.

To me, real busts are players who just aren't good. I don't think you can consider players drafted after them. If so, then everyone that was drafted before Jokic is a bust. That isn't a fair measurement.

Real Busts: (Players who just aren't any good)
Bennett
Okafor
Williams
Bagley

Injury Busts: (Players who were good, or could've been good, but can't stay healthy)
MKG
Fultz

Overdrafted: (Players who are solid, just drafted too high or were in weak draft classes)
Turner
Favors
Kanter
Otto
Jabari

Dipo and Ball definitely aren't busts. Dipo was probably the 3rd best player of that class and Ball is really good.

Nope lol. MKG is no Zion, Oden or anyone you want to mention. MKG should belong is the "real busts"

Being the best player on any of the Charlotte teams of that era means absolutely nothing. Haven't seen MKG shoot a basketball in close to a decade now and I can still instantly bring that image to mind clear as day. Probably the ugliest, most unnatural shooting motion I've ever seen, let alone from a professional.

[Pachinko_]

A top 3 pick turning into a solid but unspectacular player does not necessarily mean he's a bust. Some drafts are weaker than others and not every draft has 3 obvious future all star prospects in it.

And when it does teams miss it

[Pachinko_]

Counting Zion and even Wiseman is a bit premature. Lonzo definitely not a bust. Oladipo had 2 great seasons and won MOY so it's difficult to call him a bust even if he didn't reach full potential.

Yeah but would you tank a whole year or pay top 3 pick price in a trade, to get a top 3 pick that becomes Lonzo or Oladipo?
No.

That's the meaningful question: how many of those top 3 picks was actually worth sacrificing for. I think in that sense the OP was spot on: About half of them.

[Fencer reregistered]

okafor just came in at the wrong time. If he was drafted between 2007-2014, he would had an all star career

2013 draft class might be the worst ive seen

I don't know about that, Al Jefferson didn't have an All-Star career for example

He had a serious injury, and eventually made an all-NBA team despite it.

[Pachinko_]

I mean we're still struggling to compare 30 year old players over here, and people believe that some NBA dude knows what some teenager in Europe will become.
From the other side of the planet

[bubonicphoniks]

Dipo and Favors not busts.

[DroseReturnChi]

I can't believe the Bucks picked Jabari over Embiid. Jeez...

List sounds about right although I think it's too early to call Bagley a bust. Don't know if I would call Oladipo one either, 2 time all start, all-NBA defensive team.

jabari was next melo. i take healthy melo over a likely bust oden.

[hippesthippo]

Embiid had a huge injury concern and it was the reason why he was not the first overall pick.He did not play in the first 2 years too

Yeah but it's not like Embiid went from top pick to 27th, he was picked 3rd lol. Anyway, it doesn't matter, Bucks got Giannis and won a ring, but looking back that was definitely a head scratcher.

I don't think it's such a head scratcher, it makes perfect sense
Not like Embiid was a sure thing, he was a Heavy big man with considerable injury concerns
since Wiggins and Jabari were both seen and touted as "elite" prospects, Cle and Mil decided to play it safe, fearing wasting a 1-2 pick on a potential complete bust (because of injuries mostly)

after Wiggins and Parker, no1 was seen as true high ceiling prospect and Philly decided to take the gamble and shoot for the stars

they could have passed too, he could have fell a few spots more until he found the team willing to swing for high risk\high reward fence. The lower down he falls - the more it makes sense to take him there

as it so happened the buck stopped at #3, nothing head scratching about it imo

It was a foot injury on a 7'2" guy, although he was nowhere near the weight he is now, I agree. Particularly when he emerged a little later into the draft process.

Wiggins and Jabari had been highly touted prospects for years. Both were seen as can't miss super-star prospects. Embiid may have been acknowledged by quite a few as the highest ceiling (he was so much more lithe and agile at Kansas and stood out next to a passive Wiggs), but that injury scared the **** out of a lot of GM's.