NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 4: MVP Thread's Revenge)

[Mavrelous]

Tier 1
-Jokic
-SGA

Tier 2
-Giannis
-Kawhi

I'd move Kawhi to tier 1.
He may not have the advanced stats, but in terms of impact and narrative, he's slipping under the radar, Clipper are 1/2 game from best record in the west.

what about best record in general?
the reason Tatum isn't getting love is because he's playing with a lineup of allstars etc otherwise he'd be a classic "best player best team" pick

Harden was playing like a top 15-20 player last season as well, it's just Doc and Embiid. we saw Harden in game 1 of the playoffs last season when Embiid was injured
then u have PG13..

that's the only issue with KL's case (and the raw stats)
he's got the pedigree, the narrative and the ability for sure. if Clippers finish first he's def a dark horse for the award but in reality SGA and Jokic have been better, he just has a better team around him but...he's getting there

Clippers have a trio of superstars, SGA has Chet and Jokic has rs Murray and MPJ..that's a considerable difference

I no longer qualify PG13 and Harden as superstars, the gap between this PG13 and Jalen Williams isn't that great

[_NoMas]

Read on Twitter

?s=46

Woj driving the Kawhi MVP train

[Mavrelous]

Read on Twitter

?s=46

Woj driving the Kawhi MVP train

Trade deadline week, and Woj decides to start tweeting like crazy on non-trade stuff, full time professional journalist, part time prankster.

[MoneyTalks41890]

Read on Twitter

?s=46

Woj driving the Kawhi MVP train

Ok so he’s pushing Kawhi here so what inside info did his Clippers source give him in exchange?

[Special_Puppy]

Leader in each Advanced Stat
DPM: Jokic
EPM: Embiid with SGA in second
LEBRON: Jokic
BPM: Jokic
Time-Decay-RAPM: Jokic with Kawhi very close behind

[Jaqua92]

It's crazy how neck and neck Jokic and SGA seem right now. Basic counting stats feel very comparable overall, though obviously getting their numbers in different ways. The advanced stats are where Jokic usually separates himself, but this season SGA is actually almost keeping up with Jokic in a lot of those areas. And then team success wise, their records are basically identical right now as well.

______Jokic - SGA
PER___32.1 - 30.9
WS____10.6 - 10.8
WS/48_ .307 - .305
BPM___14.3 - 10.4
VORP__ 6.9 - 5.3
ORTG__133 - 132
DRTG__110 - 109

This is the closest I feel like I've seen anyone come to matching Jokic's advanced numbers in a season over the past few years. And SGA has made a massive jump in a few of those. PER of 27.2 last year to 30.9 this year. BPM from 7.3 to 10.4. His WS/48 from .226 to .305 is a crazy jump and he has nearly matched last year's WS total in 20 less games played.

SGA is having a truly special season right now. If both players keep on the same statistical trajectory the rest of the year and their teams finish with around the same number of wins, I really don't know how you choose between them. I think the tiebreaker might just come down to the fact that SGA is doing it with a young OKC team that is way outperforming expectations, along with the fact that he's never won it before. But I could also see voters giving some weight to Jokic winning the title last year, after seemingly docking him in last year's vote for perceived lack of playoff success (though it really shouldn't play a role in either instance). I don't think they can go wrong either way, but to me they're definitely the two clear frontrunners as of now.

To be fair, outside of WS and WS/48, those advanced numbers aren't that close.

Jokic has a fair advantage in PIE, as well as DARKO and LEBRON. SGA in EPM

[BigGargamel]

I think Jokić will take his foot off the gas towards the end of the season regardless of seeding.

SGA might win the trophy if OKC keeps standing at #1 in the West, as I correctly predicted before the season

What makes you think this? Jokic has to play like an MVP for Denver to have any chance. This is why he's basically the MVP every year. Denver is lost without him.

They are the 4th seed right now. They can't afford to coast. Not like Jokic would anyway. He never misses games and he never "takes his foot off the gas".

[Wolfgang630]

If Kawhi wins MVP that will be huge for his legacy. He’ll jump alot.

[Lakers In 5]

MVP tracker has taken Embiid out of contention and it has shifted the odds quite a bit. Jokic is now rated at a 51% probability of winning, shocker.

[MartyConlonOnTheRun]

If Kawhi wins MVP that will be huge for his legacy. He’ll jump alot.

Yeah, I did not see KL averaging a career high MPG while not sitting at age 32. Not only the MVP, but it adds a lot of other accolades: Another all-star, a 1st team all-NBA, moves him up like 150 spots to Top 200 in all time points. Its no longer a Bill Walton scenario but multiple years at MVP level play.

[Kurtz]

24/6/4 are not remotely MVP numbers in today's NBA.

[Infinite Llamas]

I think Kawhi is fantastic, but if we are going to penalize Tatum for playing with Brown and KP, we should also do the same with Kawhi for playing alongside George and Harden. Clippers and Celtics should be first in their conferences as their top end talent is pretty stacked.

[CD_41]

I think Kawhi is fantastic, but if we are going to penalize Tatum for playing with Brown and KP, we should also do the same with Kawhi for playing alongside George and Harden. Clippers and Celtics should be first in their conferences as their top end talent is pretty stacked.

I get what you‘re saying and there is some truth in that.
But Kawhi is playing on another planet that Tatum as of right now. The stats don‘t show the whole picture, well atleast his percentages do.

But the man looks like peak peak peak Kahwi on both ends, which is scary.

[PennSports]

im just sad about embiid bros

i dont really get into here because its so toxic surrounding him but this could have been his year. Not trying to make this thread about me or Joel so if you respond i will not reply, just a post mortem on his and the sixers seasons i guess. Im just upset for him. Winning a 2nd mvp would have done more for his legacy than getting to the third round undeniably. If everything went perfectly the sixers could have been a coin flip with the Glenn Rivers Bucks to fight for the ECF birth but come on. We know how this goes, it is always something with the Sixers.

He is asked to carry far too much load on offense and on defense. Some call this stat padding or picking his opponents or ducking or whatever to try and say hes not actually that valuable. I hope those individuals got what they wanted in order to fuel their self fulfilling narratives but they don't matter. He tries to play because he is the entire team still a decade into his tenure with the Sixers. He has never been healthy going into the 2nd round and is always hurt in the first round and it seems we are just running another loop here ala Outer Wilds or Ground Hogs day. If he comes back before the playoffs he wont be healthy so its the same **** all over again for the 8th straight year. They are all embiid merchants on both offense and defense. You call it xyz i call it how the sixers can manage good seasons. The franchise around him has failed him once again.

All i ask of you other fans is to give him a break for once in your life. He has been the unluckiest super star in the modern era and im not sure it has been that close. His career should be a tale of celebration and overcoming the odds based on his early beginnings in cameroon but it is often just reacted to by one of three comments about the 2nd round, playoffs, or free throws. Maybe his body cant hold up for a full playoff run and so far that seems to be the case. But for sixers fans to hope to experience that one time is not unreasonable despite everyone constantly hating on the man. We want to see him at his best. I want to see everyone at their best. And it is just another year where we won't get that and its a huge bummer. I dont think he should play at all for the remainder of the season. We have rushed him back before and its just not a realistic option for his long term health or a recipe for success. Move your sights to next year.

[Roger Murdock]

All NBA guess

1st- Jokic, SGA, Kawhi, Doncic, Giannis
2nd - Mitchell, Brunson, Tatum, LeBron, Gobert
3rd - Sabonis, Durant, Booker, Halliburton, Davis

[Jaqua92]

How come people are not listing EPM lately?
I thought it was one of the best advanced metrics out there? Or have I missed something?

Jokic - SGA - Doncic - Kawhi - Giannis
EPM +7.0 +9.8 +6.6 +6.4 +7.6
EW 11.0 14.2 9.9 9.4 11.9

SGA clears everyone for me right now I think, especially considering his defense.

There isn't really a best advanced metric out there. They all measure context in various ways with different weight. I think the best way is to look at the entire picture.

It's why I love https://craftednba.com. That website gives us a variety of different metrics, including BPM, DARKO, DRIP and LEBRON (the latter 2 of which are tough to find for free elsewhere). They even have their own unique metric to rank players that factors in ALL of these, called craftedPM.

When looking at the entire picture, SGA leads in EPM, and total winshares.

Jokic leads in PER, PIE, ws/48, BPM, DARKO, LEBRON, DRIP and CraftedPM (which actually has SGA 7th).

Embiid before being out lead in PER, PIE and EPM.

Considering where all other players measure in all other metrics, I think it's fair to say Jokic, again, has been the most dominant player this season across the board.

Based on the numbers I've seen, when factoring all of it in, my top 5 looks like this.

1. Jokic

2. Embiid

3. SGA
4. Kawhi
5. Giannis

[Jaqua92]

I think Kawhi is fantastic, but if we are going to penalize Tatum for playing with Brown and KP, we should also do the same with Kawhi for playing alongside George and Harden. Clippers and Celtics should be first in their conferences as their top end talent is pretty stacked.

I get what you‘re saying and there is some truth in that.
But Kawhi is playing on another planet that Tatum as of right now. The stats don‘t show the whole picture, well atleast his percentages do.

But the man looks like peak peak peak Kahwi on both ends, which is scary.

He's played 30 games though.

[CD_41]

I think Kawhi is fantastic, but if we are going to penalize Tatum for playing with Brown and KP, we should also do the same with Kawhi for playing alongside George and Harden. Clippers and Celtics should be first in their conferences as their top end talent is pretty stacked.

I get what you‘re saying and there is some truth in that.
But Kawhi is playing on another planet that Tatum as of right now. The stats don‘t show the whole picture, well atleast his percentages do.

But the man looks like peak peak peak Kahwi on both ends, which is scary.

He's played 30 games though.

Kawhi played 45 games. Where did you get your number from?

[Exp0sed]

I no longer qualify PG13 and Harden as superstars, the gap between this PG13 and Jalen Williams isn't that great

how do u figure that?
like I said, Harden was a top 15-20 last season and he's a top 20 player this sesaon as well. Williams is underrated in his own right, I agree he may be closer to that range then most ppl realize

PG13 is only 33, he's averaging 22.6\5.4\3.6 in just 33.9 mpg on 50\40\90 (!)

when he was 28 in his last OKC season, in his prime - he had more usage, which led to more shots (and thus points) and assists but he's shooting better from every range this season than he did in that MVP caliber season

his defense was a little better than, he has slipped (a bit) on that end but maybe he's just conserving energy and focus for the playoffs, he's no spring chicken after all and that would be prudent

for comparison, KL is averaging: 24.4\6.4\5.2 playing the same 34 mpg on 51\40\88
a bit better than PG13 but def very close and comparable. they even have basically the same To's (2\2.1) and STL (1.7\1.6)

not saying that raw stats are everything but they have basically been 1A\1B this season

idk about "superstar" but Harden and PG13 are both still clearly better than anyone on the Nuggets roster and have a good argument to being better than Chet and Willams as well

Murray balled out in the playoffs, a-la Kyrie in his best days but rs season Murray, i'm not sure that player is even top 40-50, not to mention he missed quite a few games. AG and MPJ aren't top 40 players either..

Clippers have two players besides KL who are most def let's say..top 25-30 players at the very least? that's stacked..and it hurts his case for sure

[AleksandarN]

Any argument you have with Kawhi falls off when you look at Giannis; same defensive impact with better numbers with less help. Giannis is third behind SGA and Jokic. I can't see the Kawhi for MVP case