Post Mortem #29 - Indiana Pacers

[Bloodbather]

Smart trade getting their pick back next year

Pretty wild how that subtle move became much bigger with Hali rupturing his achilles.

[Wingy]

Play the young guys, underperform, get a high draft pick, and dominate when Hali comes back in 2026-27.

One season stealth tank is the way.

[Dadouv47]

Feel bad for them because of Hali next season but the Pacers still got two of the best contracts in the NBA in Nembhard and Nesmith and the best coach in the NBA since Pop retired so they will be fine long term. Probably have to give up on a player for tax issues if they can't contend next season because of Hali's injury (Toppin?).

[___Rand___]

Nembhard has to be the starting PG for Pacers. He has played point in his career. TJ is a great backup, not so great as starter - he isn't a good facilitator. Someone will need to step up to take the SG spot. Mathurin, Shepphard it's calling you. Rim protection is still an issue for Pacers. Turner is getting older, and his performance wasn't championship worthy in the Finals. I'm not sure if the draft has an answer. So he's likely back (save another find like Hartenstein lurking somewhere). Internal growth will continue for this team and that's something to watch for its fans.

[bisme37]

I'm proud of the Pacers. Terrific playoff run and almost won it all.

I'm hoping Hali and Tatum are rehab buddies this summer and really push and encourage each other. Since JT went down I've been cheered up by stuff I've read about how Achilles injuries are not the death knell for athletes like they used to be, since the surgeries and treatments have advanced so much and etc. And the player himself and how much work he puts in really does make a big impact with the recovery.

So chin up you guys. I think Tyrese takes sometime off and comes back as strong as ever.

[cupcakesnake]

They started the year with Haliburton injured, playing nowhere near his best, and Andrew Nembhard got hurt 2 weeks into the season. Trying to project next year without Hali is difficult, because when they really started becoming this version of Pacers basketball, it involved not only Haliburton getting healthy, but Nembhard returning and giving them that all-defense level play on the perimeter, while also being a competent secondary ball handler in pick & roll plays.

Nembhard as a primary attacker doesn't quite pressure the defense. It's asking a lot to expect him to level that up. That would just make him an all-NBA guy, so we can't just project that.

The collective decision making ability of Haliburton and Nembard (and to a lesser extent, Siakam and TJ) allowed them to get away with playing a some talented dummies (Obi and Benny). I think without Haliburton, it's harder to maximize those guys, and the bad nights will outweigh the good.

Furpy and Jarace Walker will have a chance to grab bigger roles next year. Indiana is super young and has some decisions to make on what kind of contracts to work out with Mathurin, followed soon by Walker and Ben Shepphard.

It seems rough to take a gap year, but Siakam and Turner are just young enough that they should still be in their primes the year after.

[Wizop]

They started the year with Haliburton injured, playing nowhere near his best, and Andrew Nembhard got hurt 2 weeks into the season. Trying to project next year without Hali is difficult, because when they really started becoming this version of Pacers basketball, it involved not only Haliburton getting healthy, but Nembhard returning and giving them that all-defense level play on the perimeter, while also being a competent secondary ball handler in pick & roll plays.

Nesmith also had early session issues.

[___Rand___]

Thank you Pacers. (and to Knicks). This was the most fun NBA playoffs since 2019 for me. And if you take away the 2019 (since I'm not impartial there) I don't remember a more fun NBA playoffs in my lifetime, apologies to fans of teams who have won all those years LOL. All great teams, all deserving. They all had their stories. But none were as much fun to watch.

[cupcakesnake]

They started the year with Haliburton injured, playing nowhere near his best, and Andrew Nembhard got hurt 2 weeks into the season. Trying to project next year without Hali is difficult, because when they really started becoming this version of Pacers basketball, it involved not only Haliburton getting healthy, but Nembhard returning and giving them that all-defense level play on the perimeter, while also being a competent secondary ball handler in pick & roll plays.

Nesmith also had early session issues.

Nesmith is a pretty crucial piece in Indiana, in the classic 3&D sense. There's no one else with enough size (6'5" with a 6'10" wingspan) to guard multiple positions while also shooting the ball at a healthy clip (43% on versatile volume).

Or is there? I'm not quitting on Jarace Walker. Dude is huge (250lbs. with a 7'2" wingspan), and while he's struggled a lot with offensive decision making, he's shot the ball very well so far in the NBA. He's not reliant on corners, and he's hit his shots off the catch and off the dribble. He does not have Carlisle's trust yet, but if Walker takes another step forward, they could really upgrade their rotation at the 3/4. If Walker could play different positions in different lineups, it could bolster the defense to another level. Right now Carlisle prefers Obi's offense, and it was hard to argue with the results this year. It's on Jarace to make himself the correct decision for Carlisle.

Nesmith was fantastic at times on defense in these playoffs, but he's not my favorite defender. His effort is excellent, and he's really good against physical players (like Brunson). He's super undisciplined though, throwing himself around recklessly, and way too reachy. That was death against the Thunder (a finessy heavy-driving team). He fouled out half the games in this series and had a whopping 32 fouls, with many of them being avoidable. Don't reach against Shai, man! That's exactly what he wants you to do!

[bledredwine]

It’s sad that Hali is injury prone. I really like the guy. He’s a quintessential team player, not only in how he plays the game but the way he treats everyone as well.

[benhillboy]

The collective decision making ability of Haliburton and Nembard (and to a lesser extent, Siakam and TJ) allowed them to get away with playing a some talented dummies (Obi and Benny).

Lol spot on. As soon as Obi starts flexing his loose ass dribble I find myself yelling at the television “get off the freaking ball!!!!” He’s so limited, maxing out his impact is yet another feather in Carlisle’s cap. Mathurin is akin to Kuminga with the Warriors: all the athleticism in the world but the speed of the mind processing just isn’t there. Whereas a bench wing like Aaron Wiggins can quietly finish the Finals at a +33 by always having the presence of mind to simplify his role and have the game come to him.

I watched a majority of their games this season when healthy. Unfortunately I won’t in ‘25-‘26, Hali’s passing and rhythm IQ just too much to lose from an entertainment standpoint. The subtle yet unique way he casually sets up connective passes to move the defense sideways is worth the price of League Pass alone but here we are with a horrible end to his next campaign before it even starts. As it stands now I’m up front on the Magic bandwagon in the East.

[cupcakesnake]

The collective decision making ability of Haliburton and Nembard (and to a lesser extent, Siakam and TJ) allowed them to get away with playing a some talented dummies (Obi and Benny).

Lol spot on. As soon as Obi starts flexing his loose ass dribble I find myself yelling at the television “get off the freaking ball!!!!” He’s so limited, maxing out his impact is yet another feather in Carlisle’s cap. Mathurin is akin to Kuminga with the Warriors: all the athleticism in the world but the speed of the mind processing just isn’t there. Whereas a bench wing like Aaron Wiggins can quietly finish the Finals at a +33 by always having the presence of mind to simplify his role and have the game come to him.

The Mathurin Kuminga comparison is extremely accurate. Rim pressure beasts that are so erratic that coaches can't trust them enough to play them real minutes night to night. Extremely trick or treat.

[Wizop]

The Mathurin Kuminga comparison is extremely accurate. Rim pressure beasts that are so erratic that coaches can't trust them enough to play them real minutes night to night. Extremely trick or treat.

I wonder what we'll think a year from now. Mathurin should be the starting SG and Carlisle will need to tweak the offense to adjust to his skills.

[Clav]

It doesn't affect the analysis but I think Bradley has a Team Option and is not an UFA.

good catch, thank you.

[Hoop Hunter]

Play the young guys, underperform, get a high draft pick, and dominate when Hali comes back in 2026-27.

One season stealth tank is the way.

On paper they can still make the playoffs. Depending on matchups, could win a round.

I'm sure that will be the course of action.

If we just aren't looking very good early, give it a little time, but I think they need to make a decision to tank it up a bit.

[8305]

The Mathurin Kuminga comparison is extremely accurate. Rim pressure beasts that are so erratic that coaches can't trust them enough to play them real minutes night to night. Extremely trick or treat.

I wonder what we'll think a year from now. Mathurin should be the starting SG and Carlisle will need to tweak the offense to adjust to his skills.

Should Pacers extend Mathurin this summer? If he thrives in what will likely be an expanded role the contract could look pretty good next summer.

[Wizop]

Should Pacers extend Mathurin this summer? If he thrives in what will likely be an expanded role the contract could look pretty good next summer.

I think it's a year to exercise or not exercise an option. I'd exercise it

[Wingy]

Play the young guys, underperform, get a high draft pick, and dominate when Hali comes back in 2026-27.

One season stealth tank is the way.

On paper they can still make the playoffs. Depending on matchups, could win a round.

I'm sure that will be the course of action.

If we just aren't looking very good early, give it a little time, but I think they need to make a decision to tank it up a bit.

That obviously depends on having some poor luck with health of other guys (mentioned this in some other post somewhere). Say Pascal and Nembhard struggle staying available this coming year, or just some regular combo of ‘if it’s not one guy, it’s another.’ If the cards start being dealt that way they should lean-in hard and go for it.

Otherwise, yeah, they can still be a competitive 5-8 type of team given their depth and how weak the East is. I don’t know what it will take, but if they can get Mathurin more disciplined and focused, he has a lot of talent. Might be one of those easily said, impossible to do things, but they will obviously try.

Gotta be all about Mathurin, and Jarace in terms of hoping for bigger leaps. Incremental improvements from Nembhard and Nesmith should be an obvious goal as well.

[Boss_]

Play the young guys, underperform, get a high draft pick, and dominate when Hali comes back in 2026-27.

got a san antonio flashback when they tanked for tim duncan..

pacers are a well balanced
team not relying on one guy though

[cupcakesnake]

The Mathurin Kuminga comparison is extremely accurate. Rim pressure beasts that are so erratic that coaches can't trust them enough to play them real minutes night to night. Extremely trick or treat.

I wonder what we'll think a year from now. Mathurin should be the starting SG and Carlisle will need to tweak the offense to adjust to his skills.

I get why Pacers fans are hopeful for his success. To me has still has a lot of growth to do if he's going to be a quality starter on a good team. He's a bull going on the rim, and can get to that floater game. He's an okay shooter. He's severely lacking as a ball handler and decision maker, and he's... let's just say improving on defense.

He was a starter for most of the season, but not logging a ton of time as a shooting guard. I don't quite see the skill set yet.