zero rings wrote:NoDopeOnSundays wrote:zero rings wrote:
I couldn't have predicted that Jokic would be a generational player, but all-NBA and MVP candidate were real possibilities after his rookie year. The Nuggets were only slow to realize it because of internal politics. When a flabby second rounder starts outplaying everyone on the team, dudes are going to catch feelings when he starts taking their minutes and touches. He had to earn his spot more than probably any superstar in history.
Victor may be a better finisher around the rim than KP, but he's going to struggle to get there against a set defense for the same reasons. He's easily knocked off balance and I don't see that changing too much as he adds muscle. You can't compare him to Giannis, who is 5 inches shorter and not nearly as lanky.
Again, this isn't to say he can't be a great player. But there are serious red flags with his offensive game, and some of the more bullish pre-draft predictions are looking silly right now. Woj actually said he was going to be the best defensive and offensive player in the world by year 3. That's not happening.
If the Nuggets knew he was going to be an MVP caliber player there would never have been any discussion on the future between them. The Cavs traded all their dead weight LeBrons rookie year. The point is as great as he was not even his own team saw it right away, nobody did, bigs take longer to develop which is why it's also been 22 yrs since a 7 footer won rookie of the year.
He's easily knocked off his path now, if he develops his body right then that will be harder to do in the future. If he were similar to KP he'd be shooting under 60% at the rim like he was as a rookie, instead he's at 74%, KP didn't 73% at the rim until his 4th season which was at 24 and his 5th year in the NBA.
We can definitely compare, height is relative in terms of position, Giannis is + for his position and is defended by guys who are several inches shorter than himself. They have a lower center of gravity than him but it really doesn't matter as long as he gets within 6 feet of the rim. When Victor is older he'll be playing C where he's taller than guys but not 6-8" taller than the guy guarding him, the height difference between him and most Cs will be similar to Giannis and most PFs. I'll start judging him when he's strong enough to play center full time, which I would think is next year.
Two of your talent deficiencies were strength and decision making, those are correctable things without too much hassle. The only real concern is his shooting and health. He's going to be an all-star very soon, and if his body develops correctly he's going to be the best player in the league in short order.
This idea that every great big man goes through growing pains at a young age just isn't true. Embiid never struggled to this degree at any level, or Chet for that matter. Guys like Kareem, Duncan, and Shaq were superior players at every level they ever played at. You're making a false equivalency to explain away Wemby's weaknesses and overall disappointing rookie season.
Disappointing rookie season? You're being ridiculous, the season isn't over and he's had some great flashes for someone so young. You keep discounting age in this which is odd, for instance Embiid was 22 before he played a single NBA game he had been working out with Sixers staff for 2 years, he gained 30lbs in that time. Victor is going to have 3 more seasons after this one before he's as old as Embiid was as a rookie, Joel turned 23 in March that year. Chet is 21 yrs old and spent a year working out with OKC staff, he will be 22 in May, Kareem was 22 and turned 23 during the playoffs, Duncan was 21 and turned 22 during the playoffs, Shaq turned 21 before the end of his rookie season. You're comparing a teenager to guys that were all older their rookie seasons, some of them even spent a year or two with NBA staff before they played their rookie years.
Bigs do take longer to develop, the only 19 yr old that has been comparable to him as a rookie was KAT and he wasnt nearly as good defensively. Victor has been better than rookie AD was when he was 19, and let's be clear, neither KAT or AD are 7 footers. The last 7 foot big to win ROTY was 22 yrs ago. If you bought into the things people were saying about him being the greatest prospect ever that's on you, I've been thoroughly impressed by him and I understand a large part of unlocking his full potential comes from him gaining strength, which will come in time.