2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 3: Son of daughter of MVP thread)

[ropjhk]

Why use a rate metric (PER) with an accumulation metric (VORP)?

PER is a measure of statistical production per minute. So it fits what I'm looking for as a basic stats measure.

Dependance is a tricky thing to quantify. It's a metric that needs to illustrate how poorly a team would perform without the player. It's hard to measure the missing impact of a player in games in which they do not play. Sample size can be a problem. I wasn't feeling too great about using VORP but I wasn't too sure what would be the better alternative and I was feeling too lazy to do further research.

Well then you'd use BPM not VORP if you want to avoid that. VORP is just BPM adjusted for minutes played.

Thanks for the suggestion.

[dhsilv2]

PER is a measure of statistical production per minute. So it fits what I'm looking for as a basic stats measure.

Dependance is a tricky thing to quantify. It's a metric that needs to illustrate how poorly a team would perform without the player. It's hard to measure the missing impact of a player in games in which they do not play. Sample size can be a problem. I wasn't feeling too great about using VORP but I wasn't too sure what would be the better alternative and I was feeling too lazy to do further research.

Well then you'd use BPM not VORP if you want to avoid that. VORP is just BPM adjusted for minutes played.

Thanks for the suggestion.

Now that said, of publicly available. if you want to use PER. I'd say add LEBRON as that will give you a box metric and an on/off impact one. Personally not how I'd build this but just offering some ideas that at least give you a wider range of metrics.

[canada_dry]

We all know its Jokic. We are just trying to put some diversity in the MVP award. Jokic is there and he is not going away. He will be favourite next 3 years probably, and we will try to find a reason not to give it to him.

Im a jokic guy but the way you guys are framing this is so weird

SGA is CLEARLY also deserving this season. Probably even moreso.

Noones saying he's a better player than jokic. Nor is this a best player award.

inconvenient truth...we're too good! -Phil Blackson

[kazyv]

I'm about as big a Jokic fan as they come, but I think people are underestimating how much Shai is doing to elevate OKC's offense and how that is allowing them to be the super successful team that they are.

I'm on record saying that Shai isn't QUITE as important as people make him out to be defensively and some of his defensive counting stats are really him taking advantage of the amazing ball pressure that they other guards/wings, but he is the perfect person to take advantage of that with his long arms and good anticipation. That's valuable.

But while the rest of the roster can bring defense whether Shai's there or not, who is going to facilitate the offense without him? They look pretty stagnant/one dimensional when he isn't on. Part of that is Chet being out, but the fact that Chet is out and they've kept playing so well is also a credit to SGA's case.

I think that if you gave teams around the league the option to add Shai or Jokic to the roster for the second half of this season, you'd likely see the vast majority choose Jokic. But what Shai is doing for OKC has been amazingly valuable and he's leading a team to the tail end of the wins distribution. I think that is totally worth and MVP and wouldn't at all be sad to see him win it over Jokic, despite my love of the latter and preference for watching him play.

Agreed. Shai's offensive brilliance is what allows OKC to play so many defence first players with very limited shot creation skills in their rotation and still have a very good offense even with Chet out.

we don't even have to talk about shot creation. just look at the TS stats on that team. the second star, jalen williams is shooting under league average at .56 while another starter in cason wallace is at .535 with the rest of the starters/main rotation being squarely average. there's not a single outstanding/clearly above average shotmaker on that team outside of shai.

[Woodsanity]

I'm about as big a Jokic fan as they come, but I think people are underestimating how much Shai is doing to elevate OKC's offense and how that is allowing them to be the super successful team that they are.

I'm on record saying that Shai isn't QUITE as important as people make him out to be defensively and some of his defensive counting stats are really him taking advantage of the amazing ball pressure that they other guards/wings, but he is the perfect person to take advantage of that with his long arms and good anticipation. That's valuable.

But while the rest of the roster can bring defense whether Shai's there or not, who is going to facilitate the offense without him? They look pretty stagnant/one dimensional when he isn't on. Part of that is Chet being out, but the fact that Chet is out and they've kept playing so well is also a credit to SGA's case.

I think that if you gave teams around the league the option to add Shai or Jokic to the roster for the second half of this season, you'd likely see the vast majority choose Jokic. But what Shai is doing for OKC has been amazingly valuable and he's leading a team to the tail end of the wins distribution. I think that is totally worth and MVP and wouldn't at all be sad to see him win it over Jokic, despite my love of the latter and preference for watching him play.

Agreed. Shai's offensive brilliance is what allows OKC to play so many defence first players with very limited shot creation skills in their rotation and still have a very good offense even with Chet out.

we don't even have to talk about shot creation. just look at the TS stats on that team. the second star, jalen williams is shooting under league average at .56 while another starter in cason wallace is at .535 with the rest of the starters/main rotation being squarely average. there's not a single outstanding/clearly above average shotmaker on that team outside of shai.

Is this a joke? Jalen Williams is still a vastly superior player to whoever the Nuggets have as their 2nd best player.

Jalen Williams is normally efficient. He was a 62 TS% player just last season, regardless he is still a far better player than the current version of Jamal Murray though Murray has been playing a bit better as of late.

Jalen Williams is still scoring more on similar/better efficiency than Murray while being 10x the defender Murray is.

SGA also doesn't setup nearly as many easy buckets as Jokic does for his team.

[kazyv]

Agreed. Shai's offensive brilliance is what allows OKC to play so many defence first players with very limited shot creation skills in their rotation and still have a very good offense even with Chet out.

we don't even have to talk about shot creation. just look at the TS stats on that team. the second star, jalen williams is shooting under league average at .56 while another starter in cason wallace is at .535 with the rest of the starters/main rotation being squarely average. there's not a single outstanding/clearly above average shotmaker on that team outside of shai.

Is this a joke? Jalen Williams is still a vastly superior player to whoever the Nuggets have as their 2nd best player.

Jalen Williams is normally efficient. He was a 62 TS% player just last season, regardless he is still a far better player than the current version of Jamal Murray though Murray has been playing a bit better as of late.

Jalen Williams is still scoring more on similar/better efficiency than Murray while being 10x the defender Murray is.

SGA also doesn't setup nearly as many easy buckets as Jokic does for his team.

??????? we aren't evaluating the MVP for this season based on last season. maybe lebron shouldn't ever get one in 12 or 13 if we go by the best version of wade instead of the one that played in those seasons

[mcmurphy]

the season when Jokic was snubbed at MVP award, he win all... I'm sure Jokic would sign to repeat the same situation

I'm ok with MVP to Shai

[Drakeem]

They just need to change the MVP award to actually mean the best player of the RS award bc I'm tired of the "well X guy is the best player in the world BUT I think player Y is more deserving".

I love Shai, but there is no way you can claim he's better than Jokic, or more valuable for OKC than Jokic is for Denver. Sometimes a great player just happens to be in the same era as a greater player.

[zero rings]

Jokic is the Barry Bonds of basketball, without the steroid controversy ofc. He’s just an impossibly great offensive player. The numbers he’s putting up right now will likely never be equaled in my lifetime.

Shai can still win MVP, but the Thunder probably have to win 65+ games. If they slip up and only win 60, that’s not going to be enough to persuade the majority of voters. Not when you’re going up against the best individual season of all time.

[Black star]

Halfway through it's SGAs to lose. If he ends his 2nd half as strong as strong as his first half then we will be having a new MVP. The fact that OKC is having a historic regular season without their 3rd best player in Chet deserves more credit. The amount of heavy lifting he does on offense so that the rest of his teammates can excel in their roles is incredible.

Jokic will always be a valid choice in his peak and if he continues at this pace while Nuggets keep winning the race is going to tighten back up in the 2nd half. He can still win this thing.

3rd and below isn't really relevant which is crazy considering the season Giannis is having

[famicommander]

ESPN just spent the entire NBA Today highlight segment from Joker's game last night talking about why SGA should be MVP.

[levon]

They just need to change the MVP award to actually mean the best player of the RS award

That's literally what season awards have always been. "Best" X of this particular regular season.

[canada_dry]

They just need to change the MVP award to actually mean the best player of the RS award bc I'm tired of the "well X guy is the best player in the world BUT I think player Y is more deserving".

I love Shai, but there is no way you can claim he's better than Jokic, or more valuable for OKC than Jokic is for Denver. Sometimes a great player just happens to be in the same era as a greater player.

Its called the most VALUABLE player award. Not most OUTSTANDING or BEST player award.

This has always been the case. Perhaps its you that needs the adjusting.

inconvenient truth...we're too good! -Phil Blackson

[famicommander]

HNI*, or every NBA player with 300+ minutes in 2024-25, sorted by the AVERAGE OF THEIR RANKS in 8 catch-alls (BPM, VORP, EPM, Estimated Wins, LEBRON, LEBRON WAR, GmScPM and Total GmSc)

Here are all the Nuggets and Thunder players who have played enough minutes to qualify.

1. Nikola Jokic (DEN)
2. SGA (OKC)
10. Jalen Williams (OKC)
55. Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC)
56. Michael Porter (DEN)
62. Jamal Murray (DEN)
65. Russell Westbrook (DEN)
89. Christian Braun (DEN)
96. Carson Wallace (OKC)
107. Lou Dort (OKC)
116. Aaron Wiggins (OKC)
120. Isaiah Joe (OKC)
132. Alex Caruso (OKC)
157. Aaron Gordon (DEN)
168. Peyton Watson (DEN)
187. Kenrich Williams (OKC)
276. DeAndre Jordan (DEN)
286. Julian Strawther (DEN)

Average ranking of SGA's top 8 teammates: 102.875
Average ranking of Jokic's top 8 teammates: 144.875

[zero rings]

They just need to change the MVP award to actually mean the best player of the RS award bc I'm tired of the "well X guy is the best player in the world BUT I think player Y is more deserving".

I love Shai, but there is no way you can claim he's better than Jokic, or more valuable for OKC than Jokic is for Denver. Sometimes a great player just happens to be in the same era as a greater player.

Its called the most VALUABLE player award. Not most OUTSTANDING or BEST player award.

This has always been the case. Perhaps its you that needs the adjusting.

inconvenient truth...we're too good! -Phil Blackson

The best player is the most valuable player. It’s a distinction without a difference.

[SFour]

Jokic should have 5 MVPs....he was already robbed once, it will be a shame if he's robbed again.

[Doctor MJ]

They just need to change the MVP award to actually mean the best player of the RS award

That's literally what season awards have always been. "Best" X of this particular regular season.

Eh, it's not so simple.

The reason why team sports use "Most Valuable Player" as an award name is that it's about the specific value to that team contributed by that player in that season. Value is thus a team-context-dependent concept distinct from a more absolute sense of goodness/best.

I get that people might not see a significant difference there, and I'm certainly not trying to impugn Jokic's value to his team as if that's not something he's god-like there, there's a reason why the words "most valuable player" is used rather than "best player" or even "most outstanding player".

[Doctor MJ]

They just need to change the MVP award to actually mean the best player of the RS award bc I'm tired of the "well X guy is the best player in the world BUT I think player Y is more deserving".

I love Shai, but there is no way you can claim he's better than Jokic, or more valuable for OKC than Jokic is for Denver. Sometimes a great player just happens to be in the same era as a greater player.

Its called the most VALUABLE player award. Not most OUTSTANDING or BEST player award.

This has always been the case. Perhaps its you that needs the adjusting.

inconvenient truth...we're too good! -Phil Blackson

The best player is the most valuable player. It’s a distinction without a difference.

You may not see the difference, but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

[zero rings]

Its called the most VALUABLE player award. Not most OUTSTANDING or BEST player award.

This has always been the case. Perhaps its you that needs the adjusting.

inconvenient truth...we're too good! -Phil Blackson

The best player is the most valuable player. It’s a distinction without a difference.

You may not see the difference, but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

The way I see it, the best player is whoever contributes the most to winning, winning being what's valuable in sports.

If you think Shai has contributed more to winning than Joker this season, why not just call him the best player? Or at least the best player through half the season. That's the argument I'd be making if I were a Thunder/SGA fan.

[Primedeion]

lol @ Chokic being "clearly" better than a dude putting up peak Jordan numbers with great defense and anchoring the most dominant SRS/net rating team IN HISTORY (and without his second best player).

Delusional.