Who do you think wins MVP this season? (2025-26 NBA MVP Discussion Thread)

[Infinite Llamas]

Luka by far.

40, 11 and 9 and his team is 7-2.

He’s missed 4 games and the Lakers are 3-1 in those games.

Also, Jokic and Giannis have been better individually. I don’t see the case for Luka as of yet.

40/11/9 is better than 24/13/12 and 32/13/6

I can only dream what Jokic’s numbers would look like with Lukas USG

[Mavrelous]

Not really when you account for usage and efficiency. Luka still trails in the box score aggregates like BPM and PER.

Also, this:

Luka OnCourt: +5.3
Luka On/Off: +3.9

Giannis OnCourt: +7.4
Giannis On/Off: +15.2

Jokic OnCourt: +18.6
Jokic On/Off: +28.7

Net rating and on/off are very useful metrics, not in the context you are using them.
Every year Jokoc on/off is brought up, everu year I have to say, no, high on/off doesn't mean a carry job, if anything, high on/off means very strong supporting cast.

In Jokic’s case it unequivocally means carry job. His Denver supporting cast has always been wildly unimpressive and I’m a proponent of Brown, Gordon, Johnson, and Braun.

Yeah, this is an elite supporing cast, and has been since 22/23 season, hisnteams suffered from lack of depth last year and even that is no longer true.

[scrabbarista]

1. Jokic

2. Antetokounmpo

3. Gilgeous-Alexander

All three are crushing one area: BPM/WS/48 for Jokic (technically, two areas), PER for Giannis, and W-L% for SGA. I broke that three-way tie with +/- and OnOff.

I'll consider Luka when he's not on pace to play 51 games.

[benhillboy]

Net rating and on/off are very useful metrics, not in the context you are using them.
Every year Jokoc on/off is brought up, everu year I have to say, no, high on/off doesn't mean a carry job, if anything, high on/off means very strong supporting cast.

In Jokic’s case it unequivocally means carry job. His Denver supporting cast has always been wildly unimpressive and I’m a proponent of Brown, Gordon, Johnson, and Braun.

Yeah, this is an elite supporing cast, and has been since 22/23 season, hisnteams suffered from lack of depth last year and even that is no longer true.

I’m sure you’ve studied/ explored +/- as much as I have. Historic standouts like rookie KG, the impossible balance of the latest Celtics champ, etc. Since ‘98 I simply haven’t seen a player consistently rise the tide like Joker. Gordon is by far the most impactful mate he’s had, only a +1.4 off value in his time in Den.

[Mavrelous]

In Jokic’s case it unequivocally means carry job. His Denver supporting cast has always been wildly unimpressive and I’m a proponent of Brown, Gordon, Johnson, and Braun.

Yeah, this is an elite supporing cast, and has been since 22/23 season, hisnteams suffered from lack of depth last year and even that is no longer true.

I’m sure you’ve studied/ explored +/- as much as I have. Historic standouts like rookie KG, the impossible balance of the latest Celtics champ, etc. Since ‘98 I simply haven’t seen a player consistently rise the tide like Joker. Gordon is by far the most impactful mate he’s had, only a +1.4 off value in his time in Den.

On/off took a massively different turn in the pace and space era, I wouldn't compare KG to someone like Jokic/Steph/Luka, it's a totally different equation in terms of supporting cast and effect on +/- and on/off.
Simple example to show the absurdity of the claim high on/off means bad supporting cast is Steph, he had 15-20 on/off during the GSW dynasty and low on/off when he carried bad teams despite playing out of hisnmind, like 20/21 for example..

[f4p]

The big 5 are all doing crazy things. Giannis has been amazing. Luka has been amazing. Wemby despite the last 2 games is still amazing. Jokic is still the best player in the league. I don't see how anyone but Shai can be the favorite though. If OKC wins 70 games, he's winning it no matter what anyone else does.

I can't think of any year where all the best players started off so insane. Jokic has a 0.392 WS48 AMD 17 BPM, but he's not even close to leading PER because giannis is near 40 and Luka is at 34 PER with 40/11/9 and Shai is putting up better numbers than last year. Wemby had to cool off to get back to normal MVP stats.

And as someone pointed out, jokic has a crazy 29 on/off. I thought it might be a lineup thing where the whole starting lineup looked great and the bench drug them down but other than Christian brauns +12, no one else major is above +3. It's crazy. Granted, no one is actually worth 29 points because that would mean you could put jokic on the worst team of all time and get the best team of all time and denvers supporting cast isn't the worst of all time and denver isn't the best team ever.

[Sharkboy242]

Another year, another NBA season of Jokic being far and away the best player in the league.

Dude doesnt even have to try and he’s still mogging the league

[zero rings]

Net rating and on/off are very useful metrics, not in the context you are using them.
Every year Jokoc on/off is brought up, everu year I have to say, no, high on/off doesn't mean a carry job, if anything, high on/off means very strong supporting cast.

In Jokic’s case it unequivocally means carry job. His Denver supporting cast has always been wildly unimpressive and I’m a proponent of Brown, Gordon, Johnson, and Braun.

Yeah, this is an elite supporing cast, and has been since 22/23 season, hisnteams suffered from lack of depth last year and even that is no longer true.

An elite supporting cast doesn’t play like garbage whenever the star goes to the bench. See this year’s OKC team, or the Celtics of the last few years.

You are what the scoreboard says you are.

[Mavrelous]

In Jokic’s case it unequivocally means carry job. His Denver supporting cast has always been wildly unimpressive and I’m a proponent of Brown, Gordon, Johnson, and Braun.

Yeah, this is an elite supporing cast, and has been since 22/23 season, hisnteams suffered from lack of depth last year and even that is no longer true.

An elite supporting cast doesn’t play like garbage whenever the star goes to the bench. See this year’s OKC team, or the Celtics of the last few years.

You are what the scoreboard says you are.

Yeah, not getting baited into this clown show again.
73 wins GS had +18 with Curry, and -4.5 w/o him, the scoreboard apparently says that was a garbage supporting cast.

[Exp0sed]

Jokic starting to come alive. He will be in first in no time. Going to be the first since Wilt to lead the league in assists as a center. He also break the record of triple doubles in a season

If Jokic couldn't get MVP last year, I don't really see how they give it to him this year. His counting stats won't be as bonkers compared to last year because he isn't forced to play every minute now with the new bench.

Only way I can see Jokic swaying voters is if he breaks the TS% record for a 25+ppg scorer(Which is definitely on the table) and if the Nuggets get the #1 seed(Much harder with how good OKC has been looking)

From nba rapm, teams score 5.2 % better than league average at the rim when is on the court.
Players also score on Jokic 4% better than league average, which is bottom 2nd percentile in the league for centers and a lot worse than last season.

Hard to deny his overall greatness, but his lack of proper game shape is hurting his defense a lot. He is one of many candidates.

His defense hasn't been good, no doubt about that. The on/off numbers are very illuminating tho. We've been hearing for the better part of a decade, that Jokic has inflated on/off because Nuggets play unplayable guys at backup C.

This year, he's got a competent, above avg. backup and Jonas has been playing decently too and still...Jokic's on/off is ridicilous as ever


Sent from my SM-A055F using RealGM mobile app

[zero rings]

Yeah, this is an elite supporing cast, and has been since 22/23 season, hisnteams suffered from lack of depth last year and even that is no longer true.

An elite supporting cast doesn’t play like garbage whenever the star goes to the bench. See this year’s OKC team, or the Celtics of the last few years.

You are what the scoreboard says you are.

Yeah, not getting baited into this clown show again.
73 wins GS had +18 with Curry, and -4.5 w/o him, the scoreboard apparently says that was a garbage supporting cast.

Steph had the GOAT regular season that year, and Draymond was playing at an MVP level in his own right. The Warriors were nothing special without those two on the court, hence the massive on/off swings.

I don’t see how that season refutes on/off metrics in any way. That was an all time carry job by two great players.

[Johnny Firpo]

International Big 5 stats (Joel, who was part of it, is replaced by Wemby, stats rounded up or down depending)

Joker: 25/14/12 on 70%TS
Luka: 40/11/9 on 64% TS
Giannis: 32/13/6 on 70% TS
Shai: 33/5/6 on 64% TS
Wemby: 26/13/3/4 on 60% TS

Mind-boggling stuff.

[RB34]

Luka by far.

40, 11 and 9 and his team is 7-2.

Hard to use team record in support of Luka when he hasn’t played all the games.

[Exp0sed]

International Big 5 stats (Joel, who was part of it, is replaced by Wemby, stats rounded up or down depending)

Joker: 25/14/12 on 70%TS
Luka: 40/11/9 on 64% TS
Giannis: 32/13/6 on 70% TS
Shai: 33/5/6 on 64% TS
Wemby: 26/13/3/4 on 60% TS

Mind-boggling stuff.

Jokic's and Giannis efficiency is just nuts

Jokic is actually shooting just 30% from 3, his efficiency is fueled by shooting a pedestrian 77%(!) from two point range, lol

[One Last Shot]

An elite supporting cast doesn’t play like garbage whenever the star goes to the bench. See this year’s OKC team, or the Celtics of the last few years.

You are what the scoreboard says you are.

Yeah, not getting baited into this clown show again.
73 wins GS had +18 with Curry, and -4.5 w/o him, the scoreboard apparently says that was a garbage supporting cast.

Steph had the GOAT regular season that year, and Draymond was playing at an MVP level in his own right. The Warriors were nothing special without those two on the court, hence the massive on/off swings.

I don’t see how that season refutes on/off metrics in any way. That was an all time carry job by two great players.

carry job by 2 great players? So Klay's 22+ ppg while shooting 43% 3PT in 8+ attempts per game and All-NBA doesn't mean much and just being carried? How do you explain why the Warriors miss the entire playoffs in 2022 with healthy Steph and Draymond but w/o Klay and won an NBA title in 2023 once he's back? Or when the Warriors in 2016 playoffs eliminated the Harden/Howard Rockets in 1st rd and about to beat Blazers in semifinals being up 2-1 without Steph? Curry is arguably one of the luckiest superstar in the NBA history in terms of supporting cast, put him in Blazers to replace Dame and I don't think he'll ever make the NBA Finals.

[MavsDirk41]

Yeah, not getting baited into this clown show again.
73 wins GS had +18 with Curry, and -4.5 w/o him, the scoreboard apparently says that was a garbage supporting cast.

Steph had the GOAT regular season that year, and Draymond was playing at an MVP level in his own right. The Warriors were nothing special without those two on the court, hence the massive on/off swings.

I don’t see how that season refutes on/off metrics in any way. That was an all time carry job by two great players.

carry job by 2 great players? So Klay's 22+ ppg while shooting 43% 3PT in 8+ attempts per game and All-NBA doesn't mean much and just being carried? How do you explain why the Warriors miss the entire playoffs in 2022 with healthy Steph and Draymond but w/o Klay and won an NBA title in 2023 once he's back? Or when the Warriors in 2016 playoffs eliminated the Harden/Howard Rockets in 1st rd and about to beat Blazers in semifinals being up 2-1 without Steph? Curry is arguably one of the luckiest superstar in the NBA history in terms of supporting cast, put him in Blazers to replace Dame and I don't think he'll ever make the NBA Finals.

Klay was a huge part of GS’s success obviously, would never dispute that. But 2016 Houston won 41 RS games and although Harden was amazing, that wasnt a great team. And neither was the 2016 43 win Portland team led by Lilliard and McCollum.

[xb3at band1tx]

beal looks awful

[SlimShady83]

beal looks awful

I wasn't going to say antying, anyone know if the NTC was waived since being traded?

[xb3at band1tx]

beal looks awful

I wasn't going to say antying, anyone know if the NTC was waived since being traded?

my bad thought this was the game thread haha

[BelgradeNugget]

If Jokic couldn't get MVP last year, I don't really see how they give it to him this year. His counting stats won't be as bonkers compared to last year because he isn't forced to play every minute now with the new bench.

Only way I can see Jokic swaying voters is if he breaks the TS% record for a 25+ppg scorer(Which is definitely on the table) and if the Nuggets get the #1 seed(Much harder with how good OKC has been looking)

From nba rapm, teams score 5.2 % better than league average at the rim when is on the court.
Players also score on Jokic 4% better than league average, which is bottom 2nd percentile in the league for centers and a lot worse than last season.

Hard to deny his overall greatness, but his lack of proper game shape is hurting his defense a lot. He is one of many candidates.

His defense hasn't been good, no doubt about that. The on/off numbers are very illuminating tho. We've been hearing for the better part of a decade, that Jokic has inflated on/off because Nuggets play unplayable guys at backup C.

This year, he's got a competent, above avg. backup and Jonas has been playing decently too and still...Jokic's on/off is ridicilous as ever


Sent from my SM-A055F using RealGM mobile app

Wrong, his defense has been great this season. Nuggets are 4th in the NBA in DEFRTG with 110. He has 2nd best defrtg among Nuggets rotation players with 105.9, behind AG with 104.4. With him off the court their defrtg is 116.9, 11 points worst.

So what doest this show us? That a player - center can play great defense even if his % numbers as defending the rim are bad.
Simmilar as he can be one of the leaders in TS%, while shooting 30% from 3.
Numbers don't lie. Question is will we look to all numbers or just some numbers.