slick_watts wrote:imo the jazz feel similarly about this game as they did about game one. russell westbrook attempted 23 (!) pull-up jump shots last night at 58% eFG clip. this included 5-7 on pull-up threes, alone. sure, westbrook got a bit deeper than you want on some of these late in the game, but i think quinn snyder will be okay letting westbrook try and beat their defense this way in game six. assuming rudy gobert is not in foul trouble, most of the shenanigans near the rim should be greatly mitigated.
there are two things the jazz should feel particularly concerned about (aside from front court foul trouble, which imo won't be an issue on their home court).
first is that the thunder started switching the pnr and off screens in 3q and particularly 4q. utah is not an elite offense and shouldn't be scoring this much with rudy / ricky pnr. if the thunder continue that strategy, it could make things a little more difficult and cut down on the wide open corner threes.
second is the benching of melo and brewer. two things have been abundantly clear to anyone with eyes: if melo is on the court the thunder can't switch the pnr because he's a liability. so the jazz get open threes. and melo sucks on offense anyway. the other is that the thunder need to stretch the court as much as possible to be able to generate consistent offense v. gobert / ricky defensive battery. abrines is better than brewer.
i thought jazz in 6 before the series and i still think jazz in 6, but utah should be ready for those changes and it'll probably be a tougher game than games 3 and 4 if the thunder move ahead with them. i don't think utah is too concerned about westbrook replicating his game 5 performance on the kind of shots he was attempting.
Westbrook absolutely trashed the Raptors in their own house last month and then two nights later disappeared against an injured Celtics team that squeaked out a win. So I think if he wants to win in SLC (he does), he will do everything he can to win.
And yeah Melo and Brewer have been terrible this series. Alex Abrines was surprisingly good on Mitchell, even blocked one of his shots too! His 3 point shooting also stretches the Jazz defense more which gives Westbrook and PG more space. Also I noticed Paul George was finally guarding Mitchell sometimes instead of Brewer. I have zero idea why Brewer was guarding Mitchell to begin with...
I think if OKC stops giving up so many wide open corner threes and starts sealing off that area, they can probably lull Mitchell into hijacking the Jazz offense once again which would make him take terrible low-percentage shots. As weird as it sounds, OKC's low-probability path to victory might involve Westbrook and PG taking turns on offense...
