Post#483 » by Doctor MJ » Sun Dec 26, 2021 9:53 pm
So, post-Christmas is a good time to discuss where we're at, so I'll share my thoughts at the moment.
I'm going to start by looking at raw +/-. Not saying anyone else needs to care about this, and also certainly not saying it's the end-all be-all, but to me it provides a certain clarity.
First, the NBA leaders:
1. Steph Curry +372
2. Rudy Gobert +255
3. Donovan Mitchell +237
4. Jrue Holiday +236
(tie) Mikal Bridges +236
The numbers here for Curry are astonishing even before you start looking specifically team by team. Curry's managed to be 100 points higher than anyone else in the league. I'll tell you flat out that whenever I see something like this, that guy is a serious MVP candidate for me. Gobert last year was something close to this, and while much of the basketball world is dismissive of him as an MVP kind of guy, I ranked him 2nd in my MVP vote and don't regret it. We can talk about Gobert's concerns in the playoffs and I'm okay with factoring that in to your MVP process, but for the regular season award, when you see one guy really stand out in this way who is also at the focal point of how opponents' strategize against his team, that deserves a ton of respect.
Now we look at the Warriors' leaderboard:
1. Steph Curry +372
2. Draymond Green +189
3. Andrew Wiggins +185
4. Otto Porter Jr. +161
5. Gary Payton II +160
That's about as clear cut of a case as you'll ever see of a star having vastly more impact than any of his teammates. Not an obvious thing given that the Warriors' D is so amazing and Curry's not driving it directly, but the correlation here is so strong that we don't even need regression data to see what appears to be going on here. Curry is the on-court keystone of the Warriors. When he's out there, the Warriors can make it work really well, and when he's not, it's really not the same.
So yeah, this along with what we already know about Curry skills and his role as fulcrum of the Warriors make him an incredibly strong candidate for me.
As we move down the list we first see the pair from the Jazz. Team's doing great led by its stars, but it presents as more of an elite core than a standout MVP guy:
1. Rudy Gobert +255
2. Donovan Mitchell +237
3. Mike Conley +227
4. Jordan Clarkson +208
5. Bojan Bogdanovic +196
Not saying this prevents Gobert from being considered by me, but it is really something the way that we see 5 Jazz players topping the 2nd highest Warrior.
Jrue Holiday now shows up and that's very interesting, both because he's not the star of his own team, and because he's missed time. He's been making up ground in a hurry. Bucks leaders:
1. Jrue Holiday +236
2. George Hill +223
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo +197
4. Khris Middleton +131
5. Grayson Allen +106
Now, I'm not comfortable making Jrue MVP arguments for a variety of reasons, but it has to be noted that Jrue & Giannis actually tied for highest all-season +/- on the Bucks last year (+539), and Holiday has a strong track record in this stat along with a massive defensive reputation that we know is not well measured by the box score. Hence, it's important not to dismiss how Holiday shows up here lightly.
I gave Giannis my #1 vote for Player of the Year (regular & post season combined) last year so I'm not a skeptic about him. He's a worthy MVP candidate, he's an outstanding franchise player, he is absolutely the guy the opponents are all focused on, and he is the one who has to withstand the barrage of attention through playoff series.
However, in these past couple years after his 2 MVPs, we haven't seen the same type of huge +/- impact indicators we did before and I think we have to recognize that this might be an accurate gauge of his regular season impact now.
I know how easy it is to focus on the theory of how good a player is. Giannis is an outstanding talent on both sides of the ball, so it makes sense to think that he simply must be more valuable than someone like Curry, but at present, I can't say I struggle to decide who is being more impactful.
Last guy on the NBA Top 5 leaderboard to discuss is Bridges. Leaders for the Suns:
1. Mikal Bridges +236
2. Devin Booker +171
3. Jae Crowder +168
4. Chris Paul +161
5. Javale McGee +120
Something I was screaming last year was that the Suns needed to be looked at as a great ensemble rather than a group with a clear MVP candidate. I'd say the same is true this year, but I'd also say that I think the world is sleeping on Bridges 2-way impact right now. He's not one of your offensive stars, but he'd the essence of 3 & D and I think we shouldn't be surprised when guys like this end up potentially looking more valuable than your stars.
As with Holiday, I'm not comfortable anointing Bridges to too high a stature. Unlike Holiday, there is no Giannis on this team. People seem to think it's Paul, but it really isn't. I don't think anyone's crazy for ranking Paul & Booker ahead of Bridges, but I do think Bridges deserves to be named all-star this year.
Okay, two other guys talked about a lot in MVP circles. Looking at their teams the same way:
Brooklyn:
1. Patty Mills +204
2. Kevin Durant +132
3. James Harden +75
4. James Johnson +70
5. LaMarcus Aldridge +64
Another case where the guy on top is not someone I'm willing to say is the MVP of his team, but man, it's amazing how people continue to perceive Durant as someone lifting his teams immensely when that's just not what we ever really see from him. Durant continues to have a case as THE scorer you want on your team when trying to win playoff series, and because of that I really don't object to people arguing that he is the best player in the world in theory...but when they imagine his impact during the regular season they lose a lot of credibility.
The reality with Durant is that he's a guy who's played his whole career with an individualistic mindset. He'd turned himself into someone who has a set of skills that seem optimal when you're scouting him, but he's never had amazing feel on the court, and we've now seen him really chafe when pushed to blend in with a team-coordinated style of play (GS) choosing instead to make the ultimate "We superstars know best, just let us do our thing" team with the Nets.
He could have won the title last year this way, and he may still this or in another year, so I'm not even seeing this as destined to fail, but there is a difference between the kind of day-in day-out impact we've seen from the top tier of guys and where Durant sits, and this is absolutely why he tends to be lower on my MVP ballot.
I did want to give a specific shout out to Mills though. I want to see it last longer before I seriously consider him for any accolades, but I'm happy for a guy whose spent his career coming off the bench.
Okay, now Jokic in Denver, making a cutoff of >100 MP or >0 +/-:
1. Nikola Jokic +193
2. Monte Morris +111
3. Aaron Gordon +102
4. Michael Porter Jr. +58
Here we see something similar to the Curry-type impact. For me my MVP vote is between the two of them at the moment.
In terms of comparing Jokic & Curry's raw numbers here, this is obviously missing too much context. What I'd be inclined to say is that Curry's essentially proven higher team highs than Jokic, but that there's no particular reason to think we know where Jokic's team ceiling is.
In terms of me siding between the two, I will end up picking someone here, but I am also really looking to see how things play out over the entire sample of the season. If the Warriors' end up regressing to the mean, that'll be telling. If Jokic's on/off numbers regress toward what they've been in previous seasons, that'll be telling.
Now questing for other names to discuss:
DeMar DeRozan is having a hell of a year. I kinda can't believe it. I've been a skeptic of his ability to actually impact the NBA for forever, but in Chicago it's working. As with names above, I'm eager to see how the season sample plays out, and I think DeRozan if he keeps this up has a strong case for being on the ballot.
On the other hand, do I really believe that DeRozan has "figured out" what was holding him back before? Not really. Not in a way that makes me think he has some team savviness that justifies him actually better than KD, for example. KD's clearly the fulcrum of the #1 team in the East, and if he and DeRozan switched teams, my money would be on Durant once again. This puts a bit of a hard ceiling on what I see as reasonable for DeRozan here.
Joel Embiid absolutely played like an MVP last year and I have no skepticism about his ability to do so again. At this point though his missed time makes him rather easy to dismiss, and there's also the matter that for all the statements that Embiid is more impactful than Jokic, this hasn't looked the case this year.
Paul George is probably in my Top 10 right now, but with his injury it doesn't really feel worth talking about him.
Alright, now committing to a list for the moment:
1. Steph Curry - It's just jawdropping seeing the way teammates around him are thriving regardless of who is on the court with him. This needs to be seen as historically noteworthy.
2. Nikola Jokic - Starting to feel like he's the smartest basketball player I've ever seen, and as something of a BBIQ fetishist, I don't say that lightly.
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo - I'll still give him the benefit of the doubt given what all we know he can do, how much opponents focus on him, and how well the team has done with him.
4. Kevin Durant - Not the same type of value-adder as the guys above, but can't put him that low seeing what he's actually doing out there and seeing his team in the #1 seed.
5. DeMar DeRozan - Career peak right here. Didn't see it coming, feel like I'm unlikely to keep him this high, but deserving right now.
Getting ready for the RealGM 100 on the PC Board
Come join the WNBA Board if you're a fan!
If Giannis starts leading his team to legendary seasons, I and others will rightfully give him his props.
