NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24

[LordCovington33]

Jokic is special, and this is coming from an Embiid fan. Why can’t people just enjoy seeing what we are seeing with two elite centers?

[nomansland]

Nice try, but someone else deservedly won it last year.

The playoffs showed why Jokic should’ve won it over Embiid.

The playoffs showed that Joker had anther gear he was holding back during the regular season. Embiid meanwhile was going all out.

Except when it was time for him to play in Denver.

[eyeatoma]

So you are still a non believer of Jokic..

NBA/ABA playoff all time PER:
1. Nikola Jokić 29.02
2. Michael Jordan* 28.60
3. George Mikan* 28.51
4. LeBron James 27.94

NBA/ABA regular season all time PER:
1. Michael Jordan* 27.91
2. Nikola Jokić 27.72
3. LeBron James 27.20

NBA & ABA Career Playoff Leaders and Records for Box Plus/Minus
1. Michael Jordan* 11.14
2. Nikola Jokić 10.42
3. LeBron James 10.04

NBA & ABA Career Leaders and Records for Box Plus/Minus
1. Nikola Jokić 9.46
2. Michael Jordan* 9.21
3. LeBron James 8.75

None of those take defense into consideration. The Nuggets did a great job putting a great defensive team around him. He is not in the conversation for GOAT when he only plays one side of the ball.

Box plus/minus absolutely does take defense into consideration, and I'm sorry but saying he only plays one side of the ball after that playoff is such an ignorant statement. Jokic had a borderline elite defensive playoffs, he even defended the rim very well throughout the whole postseason. Not saying Jokic will be the GOAT btw, just replied to your statements.

Here is an article that talks about the problem with defensive stats and how advanced stats inflate Jokic's value. Let it be known I believe he is the best player in the world right now. That does not mean that he is on track to be the goat though. I think it's premature to have this discussion now. Let him atleast win three, then it'll be a solid argument. At this point, it's just rhetoric and sensationalism.

https://www.rightstorickysanchez.com/the-good-oconnor-mike/031123

[eyeatoma]

Jokic is special, and this is coming from an Embiid fan. Why can’t people just enjoy seeing what we are seeing with two elite centers?

Hey man I acknowledged last year, and this year many times that he's better than Embiid. But people are hyperbolic saying he's on the goat discussion track, I think we're getting a little ahead of ourselves.

[eyeatoma]

Jokic can be the worst defender in the league, but if his offense is so good that his +/- based stats are all around GOAT level, it just means that his defense doesn't matter in that convo. No matter what team you put around him, his +/- stats were amazing - even when he had poor defenders on the team with him.

Simply put, if your team is scoring so many more points than conceding points with you on the court, you can easily end up the GOAT, no matter how much you were a one-way or two-way player. If a guy comes in the future and scores a 3 pointer on every possession, while allowing the opposing team to shoot 80% from 3 on every possession, he's gonna end up the GOAT, it's just pure logic.

The signal that eyeatoma is spiralling down in his campaign is that, contrary to the tradition of him being the dominant top 1 in the years past, he's now only top 2 in posts in the MVP discussion thread. Wolfgang is beating him by 12 replies.

Lol, now those are some advanced stats I enjoy! Touche!

[Johnny Firpo]

None of those take defense into consideration. The Nuggets did a great job putting a great defensive team around him. He is not in the conversation for GOAT when he only plays one side of the ball.

Box plus/minus absolutely does take defense into consideration, and I'm sorry but saying he only plays one side of the ball after that playoff is such an ignorant statement. Jokic had a borderline elite defensive playoffs, he even defended the rim very well throughout the whole postseason. Not saying Jokic will be the GOAT btw, just replied to your statements.

Here is an article that talks about the problem with defensive stats and how advanced stats inflate Jokic's value. Let it be known I believe he is the best player in the world right now. That does not mean that he is on track to be the goat though. I think it's premature to have this discussion now. Let him atleast win three, then it'll be a solid argument. At this point, it's just rhetoric and sensationalism.

https://www.rightstorickysanchez.com/the-good-oconnor-mike/031123

I agree, the GOAT-talk is premature, although we can say that he is definitely on pace to be top 10 all-time. Anyway, the article you linked is from before the playoffs, and I wasn't talking about advanced stats either. Jokic was good to great on defense (!!!) in the playoffs, by the stats, by the eye-test, and even in the rim defending stats. So you cannot say that he only plays one side of the ball. He is an above average defender at worst and in my opinion, anybody who does not recognize this, chooses so for bias reasons.

[eyeatoma]

Box plus/minus absolutely does take defense into consideration, and I'm sorry but saying he only plays one side of the ball after that playoff is such an ignorant statement. Jokic had a borderline elite defensive playoffs, he even defended the rim very well throughout the whole postseason. Not saying Jokic will be the GOAT btw, just replied to your statements.

Here is an article that talks about the problem with defensive stats and how advanced stats inflate Jokic's value. Let it be known I believe he is the best player in the world right now. That does not mean that he is on track to be the goat though. I think it's premature to have this discussion now. Let him atleast win three, then it'll be a solid argument. At this point, it's just rhetoric and sensationalism.

https://www.rightstorickysanchez.com/the-good-oconnor-mike/031123

I agree, the GOAT-talk is premature, although we can say that he is definitely on pace to be top 10 all-time. Anyway, the article you linked is from before the playoffs, and I wasn't talking about advanced stats either. Jokic was good to great on defense (!!!) in the playoffs, by the stats, by the eye-test, and even in the rim defending stats. So you cannot say that he only plays one side of the ball. He is an above average defender at worst and in my opinion, anybody who does not recognize this, chooses so for bias reasons.

Fair enough, he definitely turned it on in the playoffs defensively too. If he were able to do it in the regular season, then he would be lapping the field. He kind of already is, but it would essentially be impossible for anyone else to win.

[Sidthekid87]

I started to follow NBA in 2016 so I don't know the answer but which one is the better player current Jokic or Miami Lebron?

Miami Bron, but this last 3 year stretch of Joker is close, and is as close as anyone's come to that level since.

[Wolfgang630]

Lmao at Jokic needing to have 5 rings to match Magic. The big difference is Magic played with KAREEM (you know a top 5 player of all time?) and another hall of famer in James Worthy (Top 75).

Joker isn’t playing with Hall of Famers unless he carries Jamal into it. That’s why you don’t need 11 championships to match Bill Russell. You don’t need 6 championships to match MJ. Free agency alone has made it harder to win a championship over and over. If he won 3 championships, 3 Finals MVPs, 3 regular season MVPs with this non All Star cast he has then that should be good enough to be a top 5 ever. Hakeem is top 12 for most people. If he had a 3rd championship with the similar team he’d easily be top 10.

[stoo]

regarding jokic's defense:
he is most probably the best offensive player in nba history. swallow that

[scrabbarista]

I started to follow NBA in 2016 so I don't know the answer but which one is the better player current Jokic or Miami Lebron?

Miami Bron, but this last 3 year stretch of Joker is close, and is as close as anyone's come to that level since.

I think Jokic last season had a better year than LeBron has ever had. But it's not an obvious call. They're on the same tier, as far as peaks.

[scrabbarista]

This is supposed to be the MVP thread, not the GoAT thread.

As such, I think it's about time we all gave some love to Dillon Brooks.

[firedavidkahn]

Lol just stop.

So you are still a non believer of Jokic..

NBA/ABA playoff all time PER:
1. Nikola Jokić 29.02
2. Michael Jordan* 28.60
3. George Mikan* 28.51
4. LeBron James 27.94

NBA/ABA regular season all time PER:
1. Michael Jordan* 27.91
2. Nikola Jokić 27.72
3. LeBron James 27.20

NBA & ABA Career Playoff Leaders and Records for Box Plus/Minus
1. Michael Jordan* 11.14
2. Nikola Jokić 10.42
3. LeBron James 10.04

NBA & ABA Career Leaders and Records for Box Plus/Minus
1. Nikola Jokić 9.46
2. Michael Jordan* 9.21
3. LeBron James 8.75

None of those take defense into consideration. The Nuggets did a great job putting a great defensive team around him. He is not in the conversation for GOAT when he only plays one side of the ball. All the others goats or goat contestants are dominant 2 way players in their prime.

You can throw all the stats at me you want, fact of the matter is they do a terrible job measuring defense which is you know half of the game. Y'all should be happy, least I'm not saying Embiid will be goat lol.

But the point is that he is still in the infancy of his career. There are so many player who have won more chips, and more MVPS that are not in the convo, and just because advanced stats love his game, doesn't make him one. The dude will probably retire to his horses in 3-4 years, and if he doesnt' he still has a very, very long way to go.

Jokic is in the goat conversation for greatest offensive player of all time, 100%. But the GOAT, no yet, and it's careless to have this conversation now.

The fact that Jokic is a terrible defender and yet still is the most impactful player in the league is a testament to just how good his offense really is. Already a top 5 offensive player in history

[Special_Puppy]

Jokic is special, and this is coming from an Embiid fan. Why can’t people just enjoy seeing what we are seeing with two elite centers?

No we must spend our time tearing down the two best players in the league

[big-shot-ROB]

I started to follow NBA in 2016 so I don't know the answer but which one is the better player current Jokic or Miami Lebron?

Miami Bron, but this last 3 year stretch of Joker is close, and is as close as anyone's come to that level since.

This might sound crazy but the first 2 years of re-Cavs LeBron might be his peak

[LordCovington33]

Jokic is special, and this is coming from an Embiid fan. Why can’t people just enjoy seeing what we are seeing with two elite centers?

Hey man I acknowledged last year, and this year many times that he's better than Embiid. But people are hyperbolic saying he's on the goat discussion track, I think we're getting a little ahead of ourselves.

I don’t think that, but he’s on track for top 15 all time or edging top 10. An amazing talent.

[Johnny Firpo]

I started to follow NBA in 2016 so I don't know the answer but which one is the better player current Jokic or Miami Lebron?

Miami Bron, but this last 3 year stretch of Joker is close, and is as close as anyone's come to that level since.

This might sound crazy but the first 2 years of re-Cavs LeBron might be his peak

It is not crazy, but it is definitely wrong. 2011/2012, 2012/2013 and 2013/2014 are his peak seasons that pretty clearly separate from the rest in terms of his advanced stats and team results. At least as far as I know/remember, haven't taken a look at them in a long time, but clearly remember there being a sizable gap.

[SpreeS]

So you are still a non believer of Jokic..

NBA/ABA playoff all time PER:
1. Nikola Jokić 29.02
2. Michael Jordan* 28.60
3. George Mikan* 28.51
4. LeBron James 27.94

NBA/ABA regular season all time PER:
1. Michael Jordan* 27.91
2. Nikola Jokić 27.72
3. LeBron James 27.20

NBA & ABA Career Playoff Leaders and Records for Box Plus/Minus
1. Michael Jordan* 11.14
2. Nikola Jokić 10.42
3. LeBron James 10.04

NBA & ABA Career Leaders and Records for Box Plus/Minus
1. Nikola Jokić 9.46
2. Michael Jordan* 9.21
3. LeBron James 8.75

None of those take defense into consideration. The Nuggets did a great job putting a great defensive team around him. He is not in the conversation for GOAT when he only plays one side of the ball. All the others goats or goat contestants are dominant 2 way players in their prime.

You can throw all the stats at me you want, fact of the matter is they do a terrible job measuring defense which is you know half of the game. Y'all should be happy, least I'm not saying Embiid will be goat lol.

But the point is that he is still in the infancy of his career. There are so many player who have won more chips, and more MVPS that are not in the convo, and just because advanced stats love his game, doesn't make him one. The dude will probably retire to his horses in 3-4 years, and if he doesnt' he still has a very, very long way to go.

Jokic is in the goat conversation for greatest offensive player of all time, 100%. But the GOAT, no yet, and it's careless to have this conversation now.

The fact that Jokic is a terrible defender and yet still is the most impactful player in the league is a testament to just how good his offense really is. Already a top 5 offensive player in history

This is from Reddit. VORP/BPM overrate Jokic by huge margin.

Jokics dominance in advanced stats(particularly VORP and BPM) should be treated as an an outlier in the same way 2017 Westbrook was rather than be cited as a point of emphasis for his MVP candidacy
If you didn’t know already Jokic is number 1 in career BPM over both Michael Jordan and LeBron James. Something that raises eyebrows for sure is when people look at his DBPM, which is insanely high when compared to his actual play on the court.

For anyone unaware, the calculation for DBPM is:

Total BPM - Offensive BPM = DBPM

The calculation for VORP is: [BPM - (-2.0)] * (% of possessions played) * (team games/82)

Here is where they explain all this stuff so you can read along if you want

The most stand out part to me is the difference in value of PG assists and Center Assists.

BPM runs on a player position estimation ranging from 1.0(PG) to 5.0(Center) and the difference between the value of assists when calculating BPM is 0.580 for PGs and 1.034 for Centers. The reasoning for this can be found in two separate paragraphs:

“Assists are worth far more for a post player than for a point guard. Point guards handle the ball a lot and usually generate lower value assists. A center’s assists are usually very high value. In addition, post players that pass well are typically better defenders.”

“Assists are interesting. For guards, the BPM and OBPM coefficients are similar. For bigs, though, the offensive value of assists is less than the total value. Assists are a significant indicator of defensive skill for bigs.”

Why is this a big deal you ask? Because for calculating OBPM, assists are valued the same for both PGs and Centers, however DRebs negatively affect PGs at -0.112 while positively affecting Centers at .103

What this leads to is Jokic having an insanely high BPM due to Center assists, and his OBPM is calculated high because of the value of the amount of DREBs he gets. And since his BPM is so ridiculously high, when you subtract his OBPM from his BPM, his DBPM is high as **** as well.

Let’s look at Jokics last MVP, his statistical best season of his career so far:

BPM: 13.7

OBPM: 9.2

DBPM: 4.5

According to this stat, Jokic last year was better both on offense and defense to peak Michael Jordan

Here is 1987-1988 MJ stats:

BPM: 13.0

OBPM: 8.8

DBPM: 4.2

While Jokic was excellent last year, I don’t see how this is any different compared to Westbrooks 2017 season, which causes the creator of BPM to update the stat because it clearly didn’t pass the smell test, so why hasn’t the stat been changed now to account for the overvalue of center assists? This also affects VORP as well because that stat is directly dependent on BPM.

Stats like RAPTOR and LEBROn can be talked about in another post, but those stats seem to favor an impactful player(s) on the court and then a **** bench lineup on the court. IDK enough about them tho

https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/11ogvjt/jokics_dominance_in_advanced_statsparticularly/

[Inspektor1312]

Jokic has made 70% of his 2 pt field goals this season (81/116).

Tonight he had his first dunk of the year.

Now that is a stat lol
It’s gonna be great MVP race.

[SpreeS]

from Reddit developer of BPM

Resurrecting a dead thread... but as creator of BPM, I just wanted to say that I agree.

When a player posts box scores that have never been seen before, it really tests how the calculations handle outliers. Westbrook did it, and now Jokic is doing it. Westbrook exposed a significant flaw in the calculations, which was subsequently corrected (BTW--I'm a Thunder fan and Westbrook was one of my favorite players. So no bias). Jokic is now doing it on the calculation of defense for big men.

There are very few box score stats to work with measuring defense. Blocks, Steals, Defensive Rebounds, and overall team defense (and position that the player plays). Assists have shown to be a very strong indicator of a player's awareness on the court, and very significant for measuring big man defense.

However....When setting up the calculations, I did not adequately account for offensive role when incorporating the benefits of assists for big men. There are so few big man offensive passing hubs in the 20+ years of data I'm working with! So the effect of Jokic's passing on the defensive BPM numbers is incorrectly high.

I plan to correct that soon.

As other commenters have noted, there are better overall metrics for current NBA seasons; BPM is more useful for looking at very small sample sizes or at leagues or eras for which the more advanced statistics are not available.